NBA Mid-Year Review: Teams That Shouldn't Win the Rest of the Season

            Here’s our second installment in our NBA mid-season review. If you missed the first one, click here. Today we discuss the teams that in the interest of their long-term outlook should lose the rest of their games. We group teams in this category if they either have no realistic chance at winning the NBA title, or no other motivations to win games (an example would be a team that doesn’t have the rights to it’s first round pick this June).
            Before we list the teams, let’s discuss the reason so many clubs should want to end up in the lottery. To put it in laymen’s terms…the 2014 draft class is fucking loaded. No Credentials ranks the top eight players on the board as guys that if they were in last year’s class, should’ve been the top ranked prospect. Here are the guys that everyone should be tanking for, as currently ranked by ESPN’s Chad Ford.

1. Joel Embiid, C, Kansas = Embiid has flown up draft boards across the country, with some feeling he has the ceiling to eventually be the next Hakeem Olajuwon. At worst, he’s the next Dikembe Mutombo.
2. Andrew Wiggins, SG, Kansas = Best compared to a new version of pre-injury Tracy McGrady, he’s the guy No Credentials would take first.
3. Jabari Parker, SF, Duke = Reminds me of a Carmelo Anthony type player, who can also be adequate as a small-ball four. He’ll be the favorite for rookie of the year next year.
4. Dante Exum, PG, Australia = He’s 6-6 and can play both guard spots if necessary. If I were running the Celtics and knew for sure I would be getting Exum in the draft, I’d trade Rondo in a nanosecond.
5. Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky = Randle is the player who’s slipped the most from his preseason ranking, but he’s still a guy that could easily average a double-double in the NBA.
6. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State = The rare sophomore that has actually improved his draft status by returning for a second year in school. I’ll compare Smart to a young Deron Williams (emphasis on young, not the ankle twisting bum that has ruined two of my fantasy basketball teams in the last three years).
7. Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona = Gordon is referenced by Chad Ford as “a virtual clone of Blake Griffin”. Last time I checked, Griffin was the first pick in a draft, and is pretty damn good at playing basketball.
8. Dario Saric, PF, Croatia = Saric has the rare combo of being 6-10 and having point-guard level passing skills. If he improves his jump shot, we could be talking about a future offensive juggernaut.

         So suffice it to say, if you’re in the top 8, chances are you’re ending up with a building block for a championship contender.

10. Dallas Mavericks

26-20, 8^th in Western Conference
Good News = Dirk Nowitzki is back after an injury plagued 2012-13.
Bad News = Unless Monte Ellis is feeling it, no one other than Dirk can score.
What They Should Do = Looking at this roster, it’s hard to believe that Dallas is above .500 playing in the ridiculous Western Conference. It’s truly a testament to the coaching of Rick Carlisle and the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki. Mark Cuban has infamously whiffed in his efforts to pair a marquee player with Dirk over the past few years (although his incompetence did pay off when Deron Williams chose to re-up with the Nets), but this off-season stands to be different. Dirk will be an unrestricted free agent, and there are whispers that he could give the Mavericks a hometown discount. Couple that with some larger contracts coming off the books (Shawn Marion for $9.3 millions, Vince Carter for $3.2 million), and Dallas should again have the cash flow to pursue a marquee free agent. To that end, tanking to insure they get a lottery pick to bolster their 2014-15 core would make more sense than fighting for an eighth seed and getting swept in the first round. Marion or Carter would be interesting options for playoff contenders looking to add depth, and could add a couple of second round picks. Dallas doesn’t have the pieces to pull off a big time trade, so a ‘Melo type trade for Dallas is unlikely. In the end, I think Dallas will be stubborn and stick with what they have until the bitter end.

12. Memphis Grizzlies

22-20, 9^th in Western Conference
Good News = No one in the West plays better defense than Memphis, and they’ve treaded water without Marc Gasol.
Bad News = Only Utah plays worse offense, and they have very little perimeter scoring.
What They Should Do = Memphis is the last team in the NBA playing like Pat Riley’s old Knicks teams in the early ‘90s. Unfortunately, that style of play will no longer get you to the NBA Finals. Barring a miracle trade for a premier wing player, the Grizzlies aren’t going anywhere fast. It’s a proud bunch, so I don’t expect them to begin tanking games, but that would be the smart thing to do.

13. Phoenix Suns

26-18, 7^th in Western Conference
Good News = No team in the league (Trail Blazers included) has exceeded expectations more than the Phoenix Suns. Jeff Hornacek might be one of the eight best coaches in the league already.
Bad News = Eric Bledsoe is out for another month.
What They Should Do = It’s great having the Suns back as an entertaining basketball team. Bledsoe was getting the majority of the publicity before he went down, but it’s been the exceptional play of Goran Dragic that has taken Phoenix to another level. The Suns are one of the few playoff contending clubs in the league that have cap space, and they are also blessed with Emeka Okafor’s $14.5 million expiring contract. Theoretically, they could trade for a max player today. The best news of all for Phoenix is their strength in the 2014 draft. While currently they wouldn’t have a lottery pick, there’s a chance they will have four picks in the first round (Phoenix needs to the Timberwolves to make the playoffs so their pick isn’t protected for the Suns to land a fourth pick. Their other two selections are coming from Washington and Indiana). Losing to put their own pick in the lottery makes the most logical sense, but long term Phoenix has a bright future whether or not they end up with a top-10 selection. 

14. Denver Nuggets

22-21, 10^th in Western Conference
Good News = After looking clueless for the first month, rookie coach Brian Shaw has finally settled on a relatively consistent rotation.
Bad News = Danilo Gallinari is done for the year, leaving a gaping hole at small forward.
What They Should Do = One of the few No Credentials pre-season predictions that has rung true so far, Denver looks to be heading to the lottery for the first time in many years. JaVale McGee’s contract extension looks like a disaster so far, as the team has actually done better since he got hurt. Not to sound like a broken record, but just like the other Western teams, it makes more sense to lose and increase your ping-pong balls than fight for the right to get slaughtered in the first round. Denver has numerous low-cost assets that could net them some future draft picks if they choose to move them.

15. Toronto Raptors

23-21, 4th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Toronto immediately improved after trading Rudy “The Brick Layer” Gay.
Bad News = There’s very little chance they end up with Canadian prodigy Andrew Wiggins.
What They Should Do = Our first Eastern team on this list is the perfect time to discuss an issue that will hamper every team in the conference to tank. Toronto would be tenth in the West right now, but in the pathetic East they are the fourth best team. It’s ridiculous. Even if Toronto tried to lose the rest of their games, they wouldn’t be able too. This ultimately will play a role in whether or not they trade Kyle Lowry, who is far and away their most tradeable asset. Lowry is cheap (only costs $6.2 million this year), talented (he’s been carrying the team since Rudy Gay left town), and his contract expires after the season. Other than Oklahoma City, every other championship contending team in the league would have to think about sending a first round pick to Toronto for his services. Ultimately, we expect the Raptors to stand pat and enjoy being a playoff participant.

16. Atlanta Hawks

23-20, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Good News = Jeff Teague has raised his level of production, and Paul Millsap has proven to be one of the best free agent bargains.
Bad News = Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle, and is unlikely to return even if Atlanta makes it to the playoffs.
What They Should Do = Stuck in the same scenario as Toronto, Atlanta will also likely do little around the deadline, which is a damn shame because this team is built to trade. Horford is the only player making more than $10 million a year, and rest of the roster is a combo of short and economical contracts. Kyle Korver, Louis Williams, and Elton Brand all have skill sets that would be attractive to contending clubs.

18. Chicago Bulls

22-21, 5^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Tom Thibeadeau is the best coach in the NBA, and is getting everything he can out of a stripped down roster.
Bad News = They are still winning games despite the loss of Derrick Rose to injury and Luol Deng to a trade with Cleveland.
What They Should Do = Chicago is living evidence of why it’s so difficult for an Eastern Conference team to lose games on purpose this year. Even without Rose and Deng, they are 7-3 in their last ten games. Here are a couple of things the Bulls could do to make their roster even worse this year in the efforts of landing a marquee free agent this summer and landing a higher draft pick.

1. Amnesty Carlos Boozer – Boozer has a player option for next year that he will likely exercise (his days of being worth near-max money were over four years ago, which ironically enough is around the time he signed with Chicago), making it very difficult for Chicago to trade him. Cutting him now would save $15.3 million for next year.
2. Trade Kirk Hinrich somewhere for a second round pick – Plenty of teams in the league need reliable back-up point guards. Hinrich has the added bonus of playoff experience.

         The Bulls are a notoriously cheap organization, so we expect Boozer to stay in uniform for the rest of the year (Chicago would still have to pay him money if they amnesty him), but a Hinrich trade makes so much sense it hurts. Chicago would be able to add to its draft pick stash. They have two valuable assets in the form of protected picks from Sacramento and Charlotte.

20. Sacramento Kings

15-28, 14^th in Western Conference
Good News = DeMarcus Cousins has morphed into the best low-post scorer in the league, and Rudy Gay rediscovered his shooting stroke after being traded from Toronto.
Bad News = Both of those players got hurt in the same game this past Wednesday.
What They Should Do = The Kings made one of the stranger moves of the season when they acquired Gay, but at least his play has built a sense of hope for the future. Sacramento should lose as many games as possible down the stretch, because if their pick falls out of the top-12 this year, it will be shipped to Chicago. A lottery pick added to the duo of Cousins and Gay could be the start of something big. Like Atlanta, the Kings have plenty of useful players that contending teams would be willing to trade second round picks for. We’d love to see Jimmer Fredette end up somewhere where he can get the chance to bomb threes at will.

22. Charlotte Bobcats

19-27, 8^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Somehow, they are eighth in the East. Also, they are changing their name to the Hornets next year, which is fucking awesome.
Bad News = If they continue to play at their current level of competence, there’s a strong possibility their first round pick will be shipped to the Bulls.
What They Should Do = Charlotte is another relatively surprising team that has taken steps this season. Al Jefferson was a great signing, as he’s the first legitimate post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Both Cleveland and New York will likely pass Charlotte in the standings, so we forecast that they should hang on to their first round pick. The Bobcats also will fetch an additional first rounder from Detroit if the pick ends up outside the top-8 (most lottery projections have it landing at 10 right now). Ben Gordon has a ridiculous $13.2 million expiring deal that should be used to net the Bobcats some assets before the trade deadline.

23. Detroit Pistons

17-27, 9^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Andre Drummond is legit.
Bad News = The Josh Smith signing has been a disaster.
What They Should Do = Let’s burn the damn forest down. For one, the Pistons need to fire Joe Dumars. Sure he was a Hall of Fame player back in the day, and built the 2004 NBA Champions, but it’s been all down hill since. Second, the front line of Drummond-Smith-Monroe needs to be broken up. There was a time when three huge dudes could dominate in the NBA, but in a day where floor spacing is so important, but unless one of them can shoot, that can’t happen anymore. Monroe is the most tradeable asset, as his $4 million rookie deal is up after the season. Monroe should fetch a fair amount on the trade market, as there isn’t many opportunities to pick up young, inexpensive seven-footers.

25. Orlando Magic

12-33, 14^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Victor Oladipo is a stat-stuffer who looks like he could eventually develop into a top-3 player on contending club.
Bad News = Jameer Nelson has somehow been their starting point guard for like eight years.
What They Should Do = Of all these shitty teams, you could make a strong case that Orlando has the best long-term outlook. They drafted the guy that in retrospect should’ve been the first overall pick in last year’s draft. Tobias Harris has missed a bunch of time, which means they lost even more games. Due to the struggles of both Denver and the Knicks, Orlando is currently in position to net a second lottery pick in the 2014 draft (the Knicks should get their act together and get out of the lottery, but you never know). Their own pick should end up solidly in the top 5, which means they’ll end up with a future franchise player regardless of how the draft plays out in front of them. The Magic could be back in the playoff picture as early as next year if things break right.  

26. Los Angeles Lakers

16-29, 13^th in Western Conference
Good News = Pau Gasol has rebuilt the majority of his trade value, giving the Lakers arguably the most valuable trade chip on the market.
Bad News = Kobe Bryant continues to miss games, which is a damn shame for everyone.
What They Should Do = It sounds that the folks running the Lakers have finally realized this team is going no where, as rumors about Pau Gasol being shopped have picked up. Gasol is the rare combination of all-star caliber center paired with a mammoth $18.3 million expiring contract. A wide array of teams should be calling the Lakers about Gasol in the interest of contending, saving money, or doing both at the same time.

 

 

27. Boston Celtics

15-31, 12^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Rajon Rondo is back, Brad Stevens is a hell of a coach, and the team is still losing. Also, they’ve acquired six additional first round picks over the next five years.
Bad News = They might not have enough ping pong balls when May rolls around.
What They Should Do = Just lose baby! Short term, it sucks watching a team lose, but in Boston’s case, it’s the absolute right thing to do. If the draft lottery was to happen today, the Celtics would have the fourth most ping pong balls, which means they wouldn’t pick any lower than seventh. To put it in simple terms, they would definitely get a possible franchise player. I would not advise a trade of Rajon Rondo, as he isn’t good enough to single-handedly lift Boston into playoff contention, but he’s capable enough to be one of your best three players on a championship team. Furthermore, he’s relatively inexpensive. Danny Ainge should only trade Rondo if he’s also unloading Gerald Wallace’s atrocious contract with it. Kris Humphries has put up an 18.9 PER so far, and would add quality big-man minutes to a contender. He also has the benefit of an expiring contract. It would be foolish not to trade him. Other guys that I would consider moving would be Jeff Green (better suited as the top scoring option off the bench than a lead-dog role), Brandon Bass (a lesser version of Humphries, with the plus of playoff experience) and Avery Bradley (I don’t see him developing into a franchise player, but he could give quality defensive minutes to a contender).

28. Philadelphia 76ers

14-31, 13^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Michael Carter-Williams will be a legit NBA point guard for the foreseeable future, and the Pelicans pick will definitely end up in the lottery.
Bad News = They’ve won more games already than many experts predicted they would win the entire year.
What They Should Do = If I could have my choice of which team to become the GM for, it would be the 76ers. There’s a realistic possibility that they could have four lottery picks out of back-to-back drafts starting for them next season. Nerlens Noel will be held out of games this year, but should develop into a strong defensive presence once healthy. We already discussed Williams, who has exceeded all expectations in his first year in the league. They currently would have the third most ping-pong balls if the draft lottery were to be held today, which means their own pick wouldn’t fall lower than sixth (meaning worst case scenario, they are getting Julius Randle or one of the elite foreign dudes), and unless New Orleans ends up with a top-5 pick, they’ll get another selection right around the ten spot. To ensure more ping-pong balls, I would trade Spencer Hawes (a stretch big who I’d love to see in Oklahoma City, but he could contribute anywhere), Evan Turner (not efficient, but can carry a team on some nights. His expiring contract would make some sense for Memphis to acquire), and Thaddeus Young (reasonably priced, and can fit as a small-ball 5 if necessary).

29. Utah Jazz

15-29, 15^th in Western Conference
Good News = Trey Burke looks like a long-term starter in the NBA, and they are by far the worst team in the most difficult conference.
Bad News = Enes Kanter has mostly looked like a stiff.
What They Should Do = The lowest ranked West team, Utah’s winning percentage should drop as the season goes along (the last quarter of the year is heavier with conference play). I would move Gordon Hayward out of town to ensure having as shitty a team as humanly possible.

30. Milwaukee Bucks

8-36, 15^th in Eastern Conference
Good News = They won’t have double digit wins until February, and the Greek Freak can ball.
Bad News = Milwaukee’s owner actually wanted this roster to contend for a playoff spot.
What Should They Do = We wrote that it was a strange roster before the season, and they haven’t disappointed. Buck’s coach Larry Drew yanks everyone’s minutes around on a nightly basis, which in a case of incompetence paying off, has led to Milwaukee having a commanding lead in the race for the first pick. There are players with value here, so anything they can do to accumulate draft picks and losses should be exercised. Caron Butler always seems to be overrated for his playoff experience, so it’s reasonable to think he could net them a second rounder.

Things to Look Forward to in 2012

            Here’s a quick, off the cuff list of things I’m looking forward to in 2012. Items listed are in no particular order.

The Dark Knight Rises

            The only thing that is slightly curbing my enthusiasm is the presence of Anne Hathaway. No Credentials predicts that she will create a holy trinity of women who put a damper on each Christopher Nolan Batman movie (joining Katie Holmes and Maggie Gyllenhaal).

Jimmie Johnson Not Defending His Sprint Cup Championship

            Every five or six days I check the NASCAR website, just to make sure that J.J. really didn’t win the 2011 title.

The World Ending

            No Credentials is planning on doing an on-going fictional tale called “Waiting for the World to End”. It might be 2 chapters long. It could be 150 chapters long. Expect plenty of politically incorrect content and hopefully, a laugh or two before zombies ravage the Earth, or whatever it is that the Mayans have predicted will happen.

More Mailbag Questions From Loyal Reader Ryan B.

            If it’s been too long between mailbags, Ryan fires off a 1,000-word question to me via Facebook. I just got one a week ago, so look for a mailbag very soon.

(EDITORS NOTE: You have a question of your own? Send it to c_muir@hotmail.com.  I’ll literally attempt to answer any question that is sent my way on any topic. I figured out why Jimmy cracked corn, so clearly I can figure out anything)  

Betting on the Kentucky Derby

            My ability to do this largely hinges on whether or not my Sportsbook account will have anything left after foolishly attempting to bet on the NBA.

(QUICK TANGENT: Sorry for the foul language I’m about to use, but I have to share this story… the Utah Jazz fucked me the other night. Hard. They were playing their first game of the season Tuesday against the Lakers. Keep in mind that the Lakers were playing their third game in THREE NIGHTS. Surely the Lakers would run out of gas in the second half, and Utah would pull out an upset win, or at the very least cover the spread, right? How about no. I think the score was 252-31 Los Angeles at half time. I bet the Jazz at +4.5, and had them in two separate parlays. Ouch. Thankfully, a huge bet on the Pacers Wednesday night recouped all of my losses and then some. If there is ever a petition out to get the GM of the Utah Jazz fired, I’d like to be one of the first names on it)

The 2012 Presidential Election

            Ever heard of the old football phrase, “If you have two quarterbacks, you really have none”? That’s the problem with the Republicans. If I were running the Republican Party, I’d throw old Newt out to get slaughtered this year and save Romney for 2016.

Super Bowl XLVI

            I don’t have a good read on who will make the big game this year (loyal readers of my football picks can confirm that), but I feel like the Packers/Saints vs. the Steelers/Ravens/Patriots is going to be a hell of a game.

The Denver Broncos Off-Season

            No Credentials has a rogue agent out in Denver who managed to come up with a document out of John Elway’s office. The file name was “Ways to Discreetly Knock Out Tebow Without Causing Fans to Set Sofas on Fire in My Front Lawn” (I know, the name is really long, but Elway did lead a 98-yard drive to win the AFC one year. The dude likes long things. Let’s leave that last sentence alone before I make an inappropriate joke).

Leak a Photo-shopped picture of Tebow with Lindsey Lohan in a hot tub

Hire a hit man to smack Tebow’s left elbow several times with a 6-iron
Pay local television station to air all of Tebow’s attempts to throw a 10-yard out 24 hours straight.
Trade Tebow and draft picks for rights to Andrew Luck
Have team doctors diagnose Tebow with a fake heart abnormality and void his contract
Ask God to tell Tebow to convert to fullback

            I don’t remember a franchise ever being held captive by a mediocre quarterback who was so beloved by fans. It will be fun to see how the Broncos play their cards during the draft and free agency.

NBA/NHL Playoffs

            Secretly, my favorite sports time of the year (there’s an epic playoff game on every single day. What’s better than that?). Not so secretly, my wife’s least favorite time to live in the same house as me. Both leagues look to be fairly wide open this season (we’ll try to fire up some NHL power rankings within a couple of weeks), so this April-June could be the best since 2008.

The No Credentials Baseball Draft

            Two or three of you may remember that I started a keeper league that I wrote about fairly regularly until the NFL lockout ended. I was so busy with football that I even forgot to mention that I won the first year of the league thanks to the most successful season of trading I have ever had with any fantasy team (if I had more time, I would’ve written a 6,000 word column about it that absolutely none of you would’ve cared about). After year one everyone gets to keep five guys, so this draft will be pivotal to the long-term success of each team (we get to keep 10 after year two and 15 after year three). This paragraph would be longer, but my pocket protector just broke and ink is leaking all over my shirt.

Tiger Woods

            Call me a sucker for getting too excited about Tiger’s win last month, but I’m predicting big things for Mr. Woods in 2012.

My Son Speaking English

            My boy is a year and a half now, and by my count, has a ten-word vocabulary. He just added “ya”, “no”, and “boo” the other day. He’s now doing the thing where kids try to say sentences, but it ends up sounding like “da imp boo kash mick” or something. The sooner he grasps all parts of speech, the sooner I can explain that Tom Brady hates Sesame Street. As a Cowboys fan living in New England, I will have to pull out all the stops to prevent him from being a Patriots fan.

            So there you have it. Have a safe (don’t drive drunk) and happy (don’t get in a fight) New Year everyone.

Mutant-Russian Mark Cuban Goes All-In

            Say what you want about Mikhail Prokhorov, but the man has stones. Based on the trade he made today, he’s the type of guy who’d move all-in at the poker table with pocket deuces. At first glance, the price New Jersey had to pay for Deron Williams was significantly less than what New York paid for Carmelo Anthony. It looks even better when you consider that Deron Williams is a better player than Carmelo (player, not a better scorer). Two issues though make this trade a high-risk proposition.

            For starters, Carmelo Anthony is one of the most recognizable players in the NBA. His addition to any team in the league would spark interest in casual sports fans. Madison Square Garden had the atmosphere of a playoff game when ‘Melo was introduced before the game, not a regular season game in February. For as great as Deron Williams is, he does not have the star power that will boost ticket sales.

            More importantly, Williams is a free agent after next season (Carmelo signed a three year extension that will keep him in a Knicks uniform through the 2013-14 season). New Jersey had not even contacted him to gauge his interest in joining the Nets. Prokhorov has to gamble that within a year and a half, he can convince Williams (who according to multiple sports writers in Utah, was “shocked” and “unhappy” about being dealt) that the team has a definitive plan to build a championship caliber team. Otherwise, Williams will be pretty discouraged after playing over a season in a half-empty arena.

            I can’t say that I blame New Jersey for making this move. Similar to how the Washington Nationals vastly overpaid Jayson Werth, the Nets needed to do something to show that they are serious about building a winning team. Even if Williams has no desire to stay after the 2011-12 season, Prokhorov can have his henchman flip the point guard in a trade at next year’s trade deadline (an option which has not been discussed enough. It will be a less hyped version of the Melodrama we saw this season, but there will be plenty of teams lining up for Deron’s services if he’s available for a trade again in a year). All in all, the Williams’ trade is an aggressive statement made by the New Jersey Nets.  

NBA All-Star Break Questions

Should Denver call Carmelo’s bluff?

            I’m almost as sick of Carmelo Anthony trade rumors as I am of Katy Perry (is it just me, or is Katy Perry EVERYWHERE. Shouldn’t she of gone away after the “I Kissed a Girl” song, or am I way off base? Keep in mind this opinion is based off a guy who’s TV is on Sprout 10 hours a day). Thank God the trade deadline is in a week.

            The Nuggets are in a tough spot. They are currently 7^th in the Western Conference. On one hand, they are only 4 ½ games out of 4^th place, but on the other they are only 6 games ahead of 12^th. The direction they need to go depends on whether or not they think they have a realistic chance at winning the championship. If Denver thinks they can make a run in the wide-open West, they should hold on to Carmelo. Perhaps the team will be galvanized after hanging on to their superstar and get on a roll. If Denver doesn’t think they can win, they should trade Carmelo for the best package they can get. Even with a deep playoff run, it is unlikely that Carmelo stays in Denver despite his quotes recently that if he weren’t traded, he would consider signing a three year extension with Denver (most sources close to Anthony have indicated he will end up with the Knicks either via trade or during the off season). Just ask the fans of Cleveland and Toronto what it is like to let your best player walk out after the season for nothing. Denver needs to come up with some package of young players and/or draft picks to rebuild some sort of foundation post-Carmelo. With word that Anthony is going to meet face-to-face with the Nets Russian mutant-cyborg owner over the All-Star break, it looks like Denver is looking to pull the trigger on a deal within the week.  

Does the potential lockout cripple any potential trades before the deadline?

            More than likely, yes. By my count, there are only eight teams that have a chance to win the championship this season (Boston, Miami, Chicago, Orlando, San Antonio, the Lakers, Dallas, and Oklahoma City). Throw in the two clubs that are actively pursuing Carmelo (the Knicks and New Jersey), and that leaves you with 10 teams that are either looking to win now or add a franchise guy for the future. That leaves you 20 teams that will be looking to do nothing else than shed salary for greater cap flexibility going forward, or add draft picks.

            The salary cap is the biggest hindrance to a trade. This year’s cap is a shade over $58 million (there are complicated rules where if you are over that number you have to pay a luxury tax, and sometimes you can add a player with what is called a “mid-level exception”, but we’ll keep this conversation simple and just stick to basic salary cap number). There are rumors that NBA owners will force the salary cap down to $50 million for the 2011-12 season. With uncertainty over where that cap number will be going forward, most clubs are not going to want to take on a deal unless it is an expiring contract. Normally clubs use expiring contracts as bargaining chips to acquire a top-flight player who is signed to a long term deal, but even contenders are more likely to hang on to their own expiring players so they don’t cripple themselves with long-term deals moving forward.

            To make a long-story short, don’t expect mid-level teams to make a move to try to improve their standing. If we weren’t facing a potential lockout, the Houston Rockets would love to move Yao Ming’s massive expiring contract ($17 million) to add a stud player. Going into an uncertain cap situation, they are less likely to make a move to add a player who might be able to get them to the 2^nd round of the playoffs.

Are the Lakers on cruise control until the playoffs, or are they really in trouble?

            I would vote for cruise control. Los Angeles seems to be following the model the Boston Celtics used last season (if you recall, Boston was barely a .500 team the final few months of the 2009-10 season, but made it to the Finals anyway). Los Angeles still has the strongest front line of any club in the league, and as long as they can keep Andrew Bynum healthy (which is admittedly a tough task), their best effort would still beat the A-game of any potential western conference opponent.

If you had your choice of one superstar to build your team around, who would it be?

            Anyone who wouldn’t take a guy who is currently averaging 26 points, 7 boards, 7 assists, and shoots just under 50% from the field, would be crazy. Lebron James is the answer to this question 100 times out of 100.

My team needs a big-man. Who should I call to make a trade?

            Sacramento currently has the 3^rd worst record in the NBA, but they have four solid bigs that could help a playoff team. Samuel Dalembert is on the books for over $13 million this season, but is a free agent after this season. At his best he would bring solid rebounding and shot-blocking ability to a team, and at his worst he at least gives you six fouls to give. Carl Landry and Jason Thompson are solid role-players who could give a team a solid 20-25 minutes a night. Neither player makes more than $3 million per year.

            The home run addition would be troubled rookie DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins’ issues have been well documented, but this is still a guy who in the long run is capable of averaging a 22-12 for an entire season. Bill Simmons wrote in his annual trade value column this week that if he were an NBA GM, he would be calling the Kings everyday to see if they hit the breaking point with Cousins, and I couldn’t agree more. If Oklahoma City could steal Cousins for a bag of peanuts, they would be virtually guaranteed to win a championship within the next three seasons.  

Can the Phoenix Suns please do Steve Nash a favor and trade him to a contender?

            Nash is a loyal Canadian who will not ask for a trade out of Phoenix no matter how bad it gets. Phoenix would have to do the right thing and send Nash to a team that could win the title.

            With the quality of point guards in the NBA right now, it is tough to find a potential destination for Nash. Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas, and Oklahoma City are set at point guard.  Miami would love to add Nash, but they don’t have the finances or the trade chips to make a deal work. Los Angeles would be an interesting destination, but wouldn’t be willing to part with Andrew Bynum for a 35-year old point guard. That leaves Orlando, New York, and Atlanta as three interested teams where Nash would fit.

            Atlanta could desperately use a point guard (that zombie who sort of looks like Mike Bibby…oh wait that is Mike Bibby…anyway, Bibby is washed up), and would have Josh Smith and Al Horford to cover for Steve’s inability to guard anyone, but I’d be shocked if Nash signed off on a trade to the Hawks.

            New York is an interesting possibility, but they seem dead set on landing Carmelo and then adding either Chris Paul or Deron Williams in 2012.

            That leaves Orlando as the only logical destination for Nash. I was disappointed that Nash wasn’t included in the December trade between these two clubs, as Nash would be a major upgrade over Jameer Nelson. Nash running the pick and roll with Dwight Howard would be devastating, and Howard would be the back line that would pick up the slack for Nash on defense. Orlando’s fleet of three-point shooters would benefit from Nash’s pinpoint passing. If this trade could happen, you could probably cancel the Eastern Conference playoffs.

What moves could the eight contenders make to improve their chances of winning the championship?

            We’ll list the teams one by one in reverse order of their current winning percentages.

Orlando Magic – While the Nash trade discussed earlier would be a home run it is probably a pipe dream. In the meantime, Orlando should look to add some size to assist Dwight Howard down low. While Earl Clark (who was acquired in the trade with Phoenix) has been pretty serviceable the last week or two, Orlando could use at least one more guy to be on the floor in case Howard were to get into foul trouble. I would be calling Sacramento everyday if I were the GM of the Magic.

Oklahoma City Thunders – Similar to Orlando, the Thunder need to find a guy a guy who can rebound (that player could be Kevin Durant, who should be spending at least half of his minutes on the floor at power forward, but that’s another story).

LA Lakers – Rumors of a panic trade for Carmelo Anthony were fun, but Los Angeles should just stand pat. If they could flip a draft pick for a bench player to help at small forward that would be nice, but this team just needs to try hard and they will be fine.

Chicago Bulls – What Chicago has done without having both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah on the floor together for almost the entire season has been amazing. Derrick Rose should win the MVP going away this season (that doesn’t mean he’s better than Lebron or anything, but where would the Bulls be without him?). With Noah due back within a week, Chicago does not need to add any depth at the frontcourt. There only real weakness is at shooting guard. Perhaps dialing up Memphis to see what it would cost to get O.J. Mayo (who has struggled this season, but would probably benefit from being on a new team). If the price were a late first round pick, I would pull the trigger. Richard Hamilton would also be an interesting option. Hamilton has been in numerous big games between his pro and college career.

Dallas Mavericks - Dallas is in an odd spot. For the first time in the Dirk-era, they have a credible low post defender in Tyson Chandler. Caron Butler was a solid secondary scoring option, but he was lost for the season with a torn ACL. They could benefit from having a scoring threat from the two or three, but it’s hard to see where they could find one. Mayo or Hamilton would be options, but Dallas would benefit more from a 3-point threat to compliment Nowitzki. A minor trade for a player like Rasual Butler from the Clippers, or Anthony Parker from the Cavaliers, would make some sense, but Dallas will more than likely enter the postseason with the team they currently have.

Miami Heat – I won’t waste much time here, because Miami simply doesn’t have the dollars to go out and add a point guard or big man. They’ll go into the playoffs with The Big 2 Featuring Chris Bosh, and not much else. 

Boston Celtics – Boston doesn’t need to worry about anything other than getting their big men healthy.

San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio has done a masterful job of building a team around an aging Tim Duncan. If they could add a wing defender in the mold of Bruce Bowen, they would be tough to beat come playoff time.

If you are the Utah Jazz, and Jerry Sloan were to call you and say he wants his job back, would you take him?

            I would certainly think about it. Utah has lost their last four games, and they are 0-3 without Sloan on the bench. Utah has plunged all the way into a tie for 8^th in the western conference.

            Coaching may be an issue, but the Jazz seems to have a flawed roster. Their best three forwards (Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Andrei Kirilenko) don’t mesh well on the court at the same time. Kirilenko hits free agency after this season, so his $17 million expiring contract is a great trade chip. Due do the uncertain cap situation for 2011-12 though, Utah is more likely to hang on to Kirilenko and let his salary come off of their books. This will give Utah solid flexibility to cope with whatever the salary cap looks like during the new collective bargaining agreement, which will then allow them to retool their roster.

If every playoff team were healthy going into the postseason, which club would win the championship?

            If each club had perfect health for the entire playoffs, you would see a rematch between the Celtics and Lakers in the NBA Finals, with Boston winning in 6 games. Boston needs to get the O’Neals (Shaq and Jermaine) healthy to give them the bigs to compete with Los Angeles. If that happens, there will be no stopping Boston from winning their 18^th title.

Instant Reaction: Utah Jazz 116, Miami Heat 114

            I didn’t plan on doing too many of these spur of the moment posts, but the Heat-Jazz game I just watched is certainly worthy of being the subject of the first such column. This game was crazy. The Heat was up by 22 at one point during the 2^nd quarter, with Dwayne Wade doing most of the heavy lifting early. However, once the second half began it was a different story. Paul Millsap was having his way in the paint (which isn’t hard to do, with Chris Bosh being the only major deterrent down low for the Heat), and Deron Williams started to heat up. With about 5 minutes to play, Utah took its first lead of the game, 81-79.

            It was at this point that the game went into overdrive. Wade responded with a three (he was on his way to 39 points for the night). Lebron James hit Wade with a perfect laser pass at the hoop for two more (Lebron was on his way to his first triple-double with the Heat). The Heat built up a 7-point lead, 88-81. Game over, right? Not exactly.

            To put it simply, Paul Millsap went bonkers. He had already put up 18 in the 3^rd quarter to slowly drag the Jazz back into it. He topped that by hitting three 3-pointers in about a 1-minute span (he was 2-20 for his career entering this game from downtown). It was ridiculous. He then forced overtime by snagging a missed three and making a lay-up at the buzzer. It was a truly epic performance by Millsap (who finished with 46 points).

            Deron Williams had fouled out just before the end of regulation, which appeared to tip the odds of victory heavily in Miami’s favor. Wade came out in overtime looking like a man possessed, scoring the first 7 points of overtime (capped off by a huge dunk that he slammed over two Jazz players). The Jazz kept at it, largely thanks to Andrei Kirilenko, who looks like he’s almost back to his form from 3 or 4 years ago. The Jazz had a 114-111 lead before Wade hit a ridiculous corner 3 (Wade was clearly the alpha dog in overtime. Lebron James was invisible) to tie it. The ending was a bit anti-climatic, as Wade fouled backup center Francisco Elson with 0.4 seconds left after an offensive rebound, giving the Jazz two easy free throws and a 116-114 victory.

            Despite the dull free throw ending, this was a fantastic game. Lebron was great to watch before he pulled the invisible man act in overtime, playing point guard in the 4^th quarter and creating great shot opportunities for Chris Bosh. Deron Williams was too much for Wade on the offensive end, forcing double teams by the Heat in the 4^th quarter. Paul Millsap’s three-balls were improbable, and enjoyable at the same time. Combine those shots with the put-back that forced OT and finishing with 46 points, and this will more than likely be the best game of Millsap’s career. This game supports my point I made in my “10 awesome things” column about the watchability (for those who missed Monday’s post, I invented watchability yesterday) of the NBA. If we are having games like this in November, how good are the playoffs going to be?