Our
first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should
just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is
under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s
schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories
from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady
isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone
Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).
4. New York Jets
2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed
Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Raiders, @ Packers, Bears,
Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @
Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins
Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT
Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison
Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy
Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson
Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville),
TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)
Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will
take a snap under center.
Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?
Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the
worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly
a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst
point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson
has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric
Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone
Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East,
the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to
cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the
secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after
looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor
to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a
viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from
Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets
into playoff contention.
Prediction = We’re guessing the defense
will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New
York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it
should’ve been last year. 5-11
3. Miami Dolphins
2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders
(London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @
Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets
Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake
High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy
Starks, CB Brent Grimes
Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon
Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay,
DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones
Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee),
WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)
Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb
plays.
Bad News = Junior bully Mike Pouncey will
miss at least the first half of the season.
Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any
team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever
pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control
their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only
managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble
to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous
for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL
Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge.
There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed
thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but
needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike
Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was
sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon
Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick
Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve
seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis
Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the
running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively,
Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance.
Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the
league.
Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has
another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be
average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9
2. Buffalo Bills
2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @
Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets,
Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots
Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams
High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell
Dareus
Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson,
DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes
Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T
Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)
Good News = They will return their entire
pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.
Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.
Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings
of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to
try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them.
Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year
quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries
forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed
to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the
draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick
to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing
talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the
Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the
quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star
middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their
defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot
Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.
Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps
Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick
they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7
1. New England Patriots
2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC
Championship Game
2014 Schedule = @ Dolphins, @ Vikings,
Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions,
@ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills
Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis,
FS Devin McCourty
High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder,
RT Sebastian Vollmer
Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny
Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince
Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins
Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern
Illinois)
Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already
been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while)
Week 1.
Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest
quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide
receiver core.
Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s
fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent
in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering
their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult
them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made
riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When
Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots
could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC
West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a
masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at
defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high
quality status by the end of the season.
Offensively
New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re
still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last
year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a
Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a
number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski
can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard
to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d
consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of
the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling
the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also
proven capable at times.
Prediction = Dobson
takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating
over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots
will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West
