2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

Bills (-4.5) over Jaguars
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS
Vikings (-1.5) over LIONS
TITANS (+6.5) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
COLTS (-5) over Saints
CHARGERS (-4) over Raiders
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
CARDINALS (-9) over Ravens

2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

BROWNS (+4.5) over Broncos

            Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep this a low scoring affair.

Bengals (-3) over BILLS

            In E.J. Manuel we do not trust.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chiefs

            This is a pivotal game if Minnesota intends to secure a wildcard spot in the NFC.

JAGUARS (-2) over Texans

            No J.J. Watt spells trouble against the surprisingly spunky Jaguars passing attack.

LIONS (-3.5) over Bears

            It’s hard to back Detroit after their stink bomb they laid last Sunday, but one needs to remember that was only six days after they should’ve had first and goal on the one-yard line at Seattle.

Washington (+7) over JETS

            This pick is based solely on our belief that the NFC is the superior conference.

Cardinals (-4.5) over STEELERS

            The funkiest game on the Week 6 slate.

Dolphins (+2) over TITANS

            We like the upgrade from Joe Philbin to literally any other human being on planet Earth.

Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS

            Both clubs may have trouble combining to score seven points.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

            Scoring won’t be an issue here, but we like Green Bay in a rout after San Diego gave a win away against a washed up Michael Vick.

Ravens (-2) over 49ERS

            I honestly have no idea how to pick this game. Normally we say take the points, but our picks have been so awful the past couple of weeks we’re veering the other way.

Patriots (-10) over COLTS

            REVENGE!

EAGLES (-4.5) over Giants

            Another case of us veering against our default choice of taking the points.

 

Week 5 = 7-6-1

Thursday =0-1

Season = 36-39-3

Spread Picks By Team

Packers = 5-0

Vikings = 4-0

Patriots = 3-0-1

Lions = 4-1

Titans = 3-1

Seahawks = 3-1-1

Washington = 3-2

Rams = 3-2

49ers = 3-2

Chiefs = 3-2

Colts = 3-2

Jaguars = 3-2

Broncos = 3-2

Falcons = 3-3

Texans = 2-2

Browns = 2-3

Eagles = 2-3

Giants = 2-3

Bears = 2-3

Chargers = 2-3

Bills = 2-3

Cowboys = 2-3

Steelers = 1-2-2

Bengals = 1-3-1

Dolphins = 1-3

Jets = 1-3

Raiders = 1-4

Buccaneers = 1-4

Cardinals = 1-4

Ravens = 0-4-1

Panthers = 0-4

Saints = 0-6

2015 Week 5 NFL Picks

            Didn’t have time to type up a full write-up, so here are some quick picks. We’ll be back next week with a more detailed explanation of our mediocre predictions.

BUCCANEERS (-2) over Jaguars

Bills (-1) over TITANS

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns

FALCONS (-7) over Washington

CHIEFS (-9) over Bears

Saints (+6) over EAGLES

Rams (+9) over PACKERS

Seahawks (+3) over BENGALS

Cardinals (-3.5) over LIONS

Patriots (-9.5) over COWBOYS

Broncos (-4.5) over RAIDERS

GIANTS (-7) over 49ers

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Steelers

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

Week 6 NFL Picks

            I was busy working this weekend, so we’re just barely getting these picks up. That’s not a bad thing, as this limits the possibility that anyone on Earth would actually wager actual money on these selections.

Broncos (-9.5) over JETS

BROWNS (-1) over Steelers

Jaguars (+4.5) over TITANS

Packers (-3) over DOLPHINS

Lions (+1.5) over VIKINGS

BENGALS (-6.5) over Panthers

BILLS (+3) over Patriots

Ravens (-3.5) over BUCCANEERS

Chargers (-7.5) over RAIDERS

FALCONS (-3) over Bears

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Cowboys

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins

EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS

           

Week 3 = 8-7

Thursday = 1-0

Season = 36-47

2014 NFC East Preview

4. New York Giants

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Lions, Cardinals, Texans, @ Redskins, Falcons, @ Eagles, @ Cowboys, BYE, Colts, @ Seahawks, 49ers, Cowboys, @ Jaguars, @ Titans, Redskins, @ Rams, Eagles

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB John Conner, LG Geoff Schwartz, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Solid Contributors = QB Eli Manning, RB Rashad Jennings, WR Victor Cruz, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Walt Thurmond, SS Antrel Rolle
Impact Rookies = WR Odell Beckham Jr. (1-12, LSU)

Good News = Kevin Gilbride and his “Turd Sandwich Offense” were finally sent out of town.
Bad New = New York’s shaky offensive line has to face off against the fearsome defenses of the NFC West.

Outlook = For my money (what little there is of it), the Giants are the hardest team to forecast. Any win total between 3 and 13 is plausible. Realistically they could be 6-1 or 1-6 before their bye week. Most people will point to Eli Manning’s ridiculous interception total from a year ago, or their shockingly low defensive sack rate, as reasons to believe a market correction is in order. Even after surrendering 30+ points in each of their first five games last year, the defense still ranked eighth in total yards allowed at the end of the season. Jason Pierre-Paul is the key to the Giants reaching elite defensive status, as he’s now three years removed from his dominant 2011 campaign.

            Offensively, I’m not buying a return to past glory for Eli Manning, but the reason has nothing to do with him. Despite adding Geoff Schwartz from the Chiefs, New York still has one of the shakiest offensive lines in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The majority of Manning’s turnovers last season were pressure based, and it was truly astonishing that he didn’t get hurt until Week 17. It was foolish for New York to take Odell Beckham Jr. (a Victor Cruz clone, which is something you don’t need when you already employ Victor Cruz) instead of a lineman in the first round.

Prediction = Eli gets the crap kicked out of him again, and forced to defend too many short fields, the Giants defense won’t hold up. 6-10

3. Dallas Cowboys

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = 49ers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Saints, Texans, @ Seahawks, Giants, Redskins, Cardinals, Jaguars (London), BYE, @ Giants, Eagles, @ Bears, @ Eagles, Colts, @ Redskins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = HB DeMarco Murray, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, LT Tyron Smith
Solid Contributors = QB Tony Romo, C Travis Frederick, RT Doug Free, DT Henry Melton
Impact Rookies = G/T Zack Martin (1-16, Notre Dame), DE Demarcus Lawrence (2-34, Boise State)

Good News = Against all odds, Dallas is on it's way to building their best offensive line since the glory days of the 1990s.
Bad News = Division II Schools could hang 40 points on their defense.

Outlook = Just for grins and giggles, here’s where I predicted Dallas would finish in the NFC East in each of the last three seasons.

2013 = 11-5, first in NFC East

2012 = 9-7, second in NFC East (surprisingly realistic prediction by me, except for the part where I thought they’d finish over .500)
2011 = 11-5, first in NFC East

            I’m just here to say…I can’t be optimistic anymore. Three mediocre seasons that have ended with Dallas losing a winner takes all season finale have sapped me of any hope. Unfortunately, Jerry Jones is encouraged by perpetual mediocrity, and hasn’t made wholesale changes in the structure of the team.

            Offensively, the Cowboys do boast top-5 talent across the board. Dallas finished fifth in total scoring despite running fewer offensive plays than any other team last year (that’s a weird stat, but we’ll cover it when we discuss the defense). Tony Romo delivered his strongest statistical season last year, chucking 31 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. His lower rate of turnovers can largely be attributed to a vastly revamped offensive line. Zach Martin became the third offensive lineman taken by the Cowboys in the first round in the last five years, which before Tyron Smith was taken in 2010, hadn’t happened in 29 years. Keeping Romo upright has been a priority, and it has paid dividends. Improved blocking was also a key factor for DeMarco Murray averaging over five yards per carry. One could only wonder what Murray could produce if he could stay healthy for an entire season. The receiving corps is solid with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten leading the way. If Terrance Williams makes improvements after a promising rookie campaign, Romo will have the best receiving core he’s ever had.
            Defensively is where this team goes to hell. It was the worst defense in the league last season, and consistently had issues getting off the field on third down. Perhaps replacing 248-year old Monte Kiffin with Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator will help, but that isn’t a guarantee. Sean Lee is already out for the season (stunner!), and their secondary is a complete mess.

Prediction = There are going to be plenty of shoot-outs, and plenty of fantasy football goodness, but unfortunately not plenty of wins for the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, we don’t even think they finish .500 this year. 7-9

2. Washington Redskins

2013 Record = 3-13, Last in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Texans, Jaguars, @ Eagles, Giants, Seahawks, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Cowboys, @ Vikings, BYE, Buccaneers, @ 49ers, @ Colts, Rams, @ Giants, Eagles, Cowboys

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = HB Alfred Morris, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Pierre Garcon, LT Trent Williams, DE Jason Hatcher, OLB Brian Orakpo
Solid Contributors = QB Robert Griffin III, TE Jordan Reed, DT Barry Cofield, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, FS Ryan Clark
Impact Rookies = T Morgan Moses (3-66, Virginia)

Good News = They don’t have to send any more draft picks to the Rams.

Bad News = Washington did very little to improve a porous offensive line.

Outlook = We’ve taken plenty of pot shots at RGIII and the Redskins over the past few years, but the removal of eternally tan Mike Shanahan finally gives Washington some hope. New Head Coach Jay Gruden has vowed to not use Griffin like a change of pace runningback, and he shouldn’t come anywhere near the 120 carries he logged as a rookie. Griffin has the strongest set of skill players he’s had during his short pro career, which will also minimize the need to run. Snagging DeSean Jackson in free agency was a major coup, as he’s a perfect compliment for possession receiver Pierre Garcon. Garcon led the league in receptions, and posted his first injury free season since his rookie year with the Colts. Jordan Reed established himself as a dynamic tight end during his rookie campaign before having it cut short by a concussion. He’s the best red zone target on the team, and also is a fine target on third down. Alfred Morris figures to be the workhorse again, but Roy Helu Jr. is also poised to make a run at PPR-League relevance. The only thing that will hold the offense back is the offensive line, which if Trent Williams wasn’t manning left tackle, would rank as the worst line in football. Morgan Moses was a great get for the Redskins in the third round, as has a chance to solidify the right tackle position.

            Defensively, coordinator Jim Haslett will once again have the green light to blitz the hell out of the quarterback (the tan man restricted Haslett from pulling the blitz trigger on numerous occasions last year). This is a sound strategy, as the secondary is still extremely weak and could use help from a top-flight pass rush. Brian Orakpo delivered double-digit sacks last season, but needs to raise his play another level to make the Redskins a competent defensive team.

Prediction = We think the coaching change is worth 3 wins, DeSean is worth another one, and a healthy RGIII will push Washington over .500 in a successful bounce back campaign. 9-7

1. Philadelphia Eagles

2013 Record = 10-6, NFC East Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game
2014 Schedule = Jaguars, @ Colts, Redskins, @ 49ers, Rams, Giants, BYE, @ Cardinals, @ Texans, Panthers, @ Packers, Titans, @ Cowboys, Seahawks, Cowboys, @ Redskins, @ Giants

Blue Chippers = HB LeSean McCoy, LT Jason Peters, LG Evan Mathis

High Quality Players = C Jason Kelce, DE Fletcher Cox, OLB Trent Cole, CB Brandon Boykin
Solid Contributors = QB Nick Foles, HB Darren Sproles, WR Riley Cooper, TE Brent Celek, RG Todd Herremans, RT Lane Johnson, DE Cedric Thornton
Impact Rookies = WR Jordan Matthews (2-42, Vanderbilt)

Good News = Philadelphia has the strongest offensive line in the league.

Bad News = They didn’t sign anyone with a fraction of the skill set DeSean Jackson possessed.

Outlook = Chip Kelly is my favorite coach in the league, and it pains me that my beloved Cowboys have to face off against him twice a year. It’s hard to tell which is the more impressive feat, turning Nick “The Pizza Man” Foles into a franchise quarterback or rehabbing an offensive line that nearly got Michael Vick killed in 2012 into the best unit in football. Using a bullpen by committee like approach, we expect the Eagles to replace DeSean Jackson’s value without trouble. Jeremy Maclin could be a NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate, and Jordan Matthews has the raw talent to make an impact in his rookie campaign. Defensively is where the Eagles still have issues, as the secondary is still weak, and the front seven still isn’t fully suited to play in a 3-4 alignment. Philadelphia gave up the most passing yardage in the league last year (even more than the Cowboys!), and it’s unlikely that they are significantly improved this year.

Prediction = The defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber yet, so while they should handle the NFC East, they are at least a year away from serious championship contention. 10-6

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Week 12 NFL Picks

            No Credentials had an unexpected power outage this evening, so here’s an abbreviated posting of our NFL picks.

 

LIONS (-8.5) over Buccaneers

Jaguars (+10) over TEXANS

PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

CHIEFS (-5) over Chargers

Panthers (-5) over DOLPHINS

Steelers (+1) over BROWNS

RAMS (-1) over Bears

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets

RAIDERS (+1) over Titans

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts

Cowboys (+2.5) over GIANTS

Broncos (-2.5) over PATRIOTS

49ers (-6.5) over REDSKINS

 

Last Week = 8-5-2

Season = 81-73-7
Thursday = 0-1

Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 4 Bye Weeks = Green Bay Packers (1-2), Carolina Panthers (1-2)
 

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-3)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
Game will be played in London
            There isn’t a better way to further promote America’s passion across the pond than shipping two winless teams overseas to play. Ultimately, Pittsburgh’s defense should be enough to get them back in the win column.

Steelers (-3) over Vikings

 

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-2)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 44
            Buffalo looks like a group that will play much better at home than on the road this season, but I think Baltimore squeaks this one out. Almost thought about picking a push.

Ravens (-3) over BILLS

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-2)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            Cleveland already won one more game than their general manager was hoping they would win this season. I’m expecting a major beat down.

Bengals (-4.5) over BROWNS

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            This line is three points too high, but I can’t in good faith place any betting faith in Blaine Gabbert.

Colts (-9.5) over JAGUARS

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Houston Texans (2-1)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 42
            Tough one to call for me, but AT THE END OF THE DAY it feels like a game that Houston needs to win more.

TEXANS (+2) over Seahawks

 

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 40
            Wouldn’t shock me at all if Arizona’s defense outscores Tampa Bay’s offense. Greg Schiano better be getting his resume ready.

Cardinals (+2.5) over BUCCANEERS

 

Chicago Bears (3-0) @ Detroit Lions (2-1)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            Explain to me how the Lions are favored in this game please? Last time I checked, the combined records of the teams they beat this season is 0-6.

Bears (+2.5) over LIONS

New York Giants (0-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 44
            For me, this was the toughest line to pick all week. It feels like the score will be lopsided, regardless of which team wins.

CHIEFS (-4.5) over Giants

 

New York Jets (2-1) @ Tennessee Titans (2-1)

Sunday, 4pm, CBS, O/U 40.5
            Could the Jets be the worst 2-1 team in NFL history? They are in the discussion.

TITANS (-4) over Jets

 

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2)

Sunday, 430pm, FOX, O/U 47
            This is normally a game the Cowboys would lose, but I’m starting to get a feeling about this year’s squad. If your desperate for help at wide receiver in fantasy, add Cowboys rookie Terrance Williams.

Cowboys (-2.5) over CHARGERS

 

Washington Redskins (0-3) @ Oakland Raiders (1-2)

Sunday, 430pm, FOX, O/U 44
            Through the first three weeks, Oakland has been a better team than Washington. If they lose, it will be by a field goal or less.

RAIDERS (+3.5) over Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-0)

Sunday, 430pm, FOX, O/U 58.5
            Ethan made the point in his write up that I already had posted here, so scroll down and see what he wrote.

BRONCOS (-11.5) over Eagles

 

New England Patriots (3-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

Sunday, 830pm, NBC, O/U 50.5
            Above all else, Atlanta’s desperation trumps anything New England brings to the table. I won’t be surprised if this one gets ugly.

FALCONS (-2.5) over Patriots

 

Miami Dolphins (3-0) @ New Orleans Saints (3-0)

Monday, 830pm, ESPN, O/U 48.5
            Miami is legit. This line is three or four points too high.

Dolphins (+7) over SAINTS

 

Ethan’s Picks

Steelers - Apparently Matt Cassel is starting this game. I attended a Matt Cassel MNF game with Cameron where he threw 3 TDs and was still getting booed at Gillette Stadium (EDITORS NOTE: I think it was five touchdowns, and he also managed to get sacked seven times). It was pretty awesome.

Ravens - The defense is starting to gel.

Bengals - I am always scared Andy Dalton is going to throw 4 INTS though.

Colts - Hopefully they aren’t riding too high after last week’s big win.

Seattle - If Houston scores more than 10 I will be surprised.

Cardinals - This is a coin flip. If this game is aired on Fox I am going to be pissed.

Bears - I am pretty surprised that Detroit is favored here. The scoreboard will be lit up like Jessie at his peak of meth addiction.

Chiefs - At some point the Giants will get it together, but not this week.

Titans - I see a horrible game from Geno Smith in the forecast.

Cowboys - I picked them to choke against St. Louis, so they will probably throw me under the bus this week.

Raiders - I really don’t like RGIII. Oakland has a pretty good pass rush so I hope to see him get smacked around this weekend.

Broncos - Peyton is going to throw for 600 yards and 5 TDs because the Eagles will three and out in less than a minute 7 times in this game.

Patriots - First tough game for the Pats, but it certainly is not the strongest defense they have faced.

Dolphins - Even though I picked the Pats, they will probably lose, Miami will pull out a big win and then we get to listen to people blow it way out of proportion that Miami is leading the division. In the end it will not matter. There is nothing that I would not bet that New England wins the division this year.

No Credentials Week 3 Picks = 9-6-1

Ethan’s Picks = 7-8-1

No Credentials Season = 25-21-2

Ethan’s Record = 26-20-2

Our Thursday Pick = 1-0

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/20-9/22)

10. Ohio State Wins By 76 Points

9. Louisville Wins By 72 Points
            In other words, it was a rough slate of college football games this weekend.

8. Henrik Stenson Wins Fed-Ex Cup

            Will I be bouncing my grandkids on my knee telling them about the time Henrik Stenson won the 2013 Fed-Ex Cup (for those not in the know, that’s some weird golf trophy the PGA made up after NASCAR created The Chase. For those not in the know about that, The Chase was NASCAR’s attempt to create a playoff system, even though 30 other cars that aren’t competing for the title are still on the track at the same time. We’ll invite the Jaguars to the Super Bowl this year and see how that works out. I’m ending this rant now)? No, but assuming Stenson is from Sweden, I’m happy for him. I don’t know what that means, but I needed to fill some space in the blog this week, so there you go.

7. Matt Kenseth Wins Second Straight to Open Chase
            Historically awful when racing in the woods of New Hampshire, Kenseth surged to the front during the final 100 miles. Kyle Busch came home second again to give Joe Gibbs another 1-2 finish.

6. Colts Manhandle 49ers

            I genuinely don’t know what to make of San Francisco’s listless performance against Indianapolis. They’ll have to right the ship quickly before their Thursday night date in St. Louis.

5. Redskins Lose Again at Home
4. Carolina Humiliates New York 38-0
            Not since the mid-90s have Dallas Cowboys fans had the pleasure of their two most hated rivals sucking so much at the same time. Washington couldn’t stop a Swiss army, while the Giants looked completely lost.

3. Jon Jones Survives UFC 165

            He’d never been taken down in the octagon, but Alexander Gustafsson was able to beat and batter the Light Heavyweight champ. Jon Jones won a lot of fans back into his corner after the backlash from bailing out on a pay-per-view event a year ago.

2. Cleveland Browns Destroy Suicide Pools Everywhere, Shock Vikings

            Logically, Cleveland had no chance of winning in the Metrodome, but as despised ESPN anchor Chris Berman would say, “THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME.”

1. Bengals Win Back and Forth Struggle Over Green Bay

            It wasn’t always pretty, but Cincinnati firmly established itself as the second best team in the AFC with it’s rousing victory over the Packers. Even former No Credentials whipping boy Terrance Newman had a moment of glory when he ran back the game-winning fumble return.

Week 2 NFL Picks

           My picks were mostly terrible last week (unless you ignored the spreads and played the money line), but at least we offered a second set of picks that went 10-5-1 last week.

San Diego Chargers (0-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 55.5
            San Diego was solid for three quarters against one of the AFC’s elite teams, so I’m not ready to sign off on Philly being favored by more than three points against them.

Chargers (+7) over EAGLES

 

Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            This is a rough match-up for Cleveland, who catch Baltimore the week after they got humiliated in prime time, and the same day that Ravens are raising their Super Bowl banner.

RAVENS (-7) over Browns

 

Tennessee Titans (1-0) @ Houston Texans (1-0)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 43
            One of the few things I had right last week was Tennessee’s improved offensive line making a difference. They didn’t run wild against the Steelers, but did just enough to maintain field position and keep Jake Locker upright. If the defense shows up for a second straight week, the Titans could establish themselves as a dark horse playoff contender.

Titans (+9.5) over TEXANS

 

Miami Dolphins (1-0) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-0)

Sunday, 1pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            Lost in the shuffle of week 1 were the Colts nearly suffering a horrendous home loss against Oakland, who most experts regarded as the NFL’s worst team heading into the season. 

Dolphins (+3) over COLTS

Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-1)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 43.5
            We’ll combine Carolina attempting to bounce back from a tough home loss with Buffalo dealing with the disappointment of a blown lead against New England as reason to believe the Panthers will cover. To be honest, I considered flipping a coin for this one.

Panthers (-3) over BILLS

St. Louis Rams (1-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 47.5
            Even with a hobbled Roddy White (thanks for announcing that he had a high ankle sprain before I drafted him on one of fantasy teams, assholes), Atlanta is too good to fall to 0-2.     

FALCONS (-6.5) over Rams

Washington Redskins (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 50.5
            Ditto for this game. Aaron Rodgers is going to eat the Redskins secondary for lunch.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Redskins

 

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 46.5
            Andy Reid historically was usually the winner whenever his Eagles faced the Cowboys (granted most of those Cowboys teams stunk in the early ‘00s, but whatever), and we’re forecasting the same thing here. This game could be Kansas City’s coming out party.

CHIEFS (-3) over Cowboys

 

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1pm, FOX, O/U 42
            Blaine Gabbert was the clear winner of “most inept week 1 quarterback”, but coming in a distant second place was Christian Ponder. I think Chicago does whatever they want too in this one.

BEARS (-6.5) over Vikings

 

New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

Sunday, 4pm, FOX, O/U 48
            I don’t get this line. I really don’t. Go ahead and mortgage your house on the Saints.

Saints (-4) over BUCCANEERS

 

Detroit Lions (1-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

Sunday, 4pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            Detroit looked really good in Week 1, but that could just be because the Vikings suck. Not willing to invest on the road yet until I see them do it.

CARDINALS (+2.5) over Lions

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) @ Oakland Raiders (0-1)

Sunday, 430pm, CBS, O/U 40
            It’s a shame we couldn’t of scheduled this game for Week 16 so both teams could try to out tank each other on the same field to get the #1 overall pick. It feels ridiculous to take the Raiders when they are favored by anything more than three points (or for that matter, taking the Raiders when they are favored period), but betting on the Jaguars on the road was even scarier until Chad Henne was announced as the Week 2 starter. I don’t know what the over/under for turnovers is, but you’d be wise to bet the over.

Jaguars (+6) over RAIDERS

Denver Broncos (1-0) @ New York Giants (0-1)

Sunday, 430pm, CBS, O/U 56
            On the surface this looks like the classic “we underestimated the Giants but then they won by two touchdowns” kind of game, but this is as flawed a Giants roster as we’ve seen since 2006.

Broncos (-4) over GIANTS

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0)

Sunday, 830pm, NBC, O/U 45
            I think the 49ers are the better team, but it’s irresponsible to bet against Seattle at home.

SEAHAWKS (-2.5) over 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Monday, 830pm, ESPN, O/U 40.5
            If the Titans shut down Pittsburgh, what are they going to do against the Bengals? Cincinnati might only have to put up 14 points to cover this spread.

BENGALS (-7) over Steelers

 

            Ethan was too busy to type explanations this week, but here are his picks for the rest of Week 2. We were missing his Monday night pick at press time, so we’ll add that via Facebook as soon as it’s available.

Chargers

Ravens
Titans
Colts
Panthers
Falcons
Packers
Cowboys
Bears
Saints
Lions
Raiders
Broncos
49ers
 

My Week 1 Record = 5-10-1

Ethan’s Week 1 = 10-5-1
My Thursday Pick = 1-0
Ethan’s Thursday = 1-0

Week 1 NFL Picks

            Last year, Week 1 destroyed No Credentials. A 3-13 stink bomb set us behind the eight ball early. This year, we’re not off to a good start (although I stand behind my opening night pick. Wasn’t my fault one of Baltimore’s two competent receivers was run into by his own guy on a punt, or that Peyton Manning went bonkers. Nevermind, it was my fault. You never bet against Peyton Manning at night), but the rest of the Week 1 will be better. Why? Well…I don’t know.
            As a special treat for No Credentials readers (all six of you), we invited friend of the blog Ethan Hedrick to also make picks every week (EDITORS NOTE: Actually, he invited himself, but I figured it wasn’t a bad idea. Instead of one person posting bad picks, why not two?). His picks will be listed below mine. He claims to have picked Denver in his office pool, so we’ll spot him a 1-0 lead.
            Without further ado, the rest of my shitty Week 1 picks.
 

New England Patriots (-10.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 51
            New England ran for approximately 1,253 yards in the two games they played against Buffalo last year. Throw in a few E.J. Manuel turnovers and this one will be a runaway.

Patriots (-10.5) over BILLS
 

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            I wrote in the preseason how I had a good feeling about Tennessee’s improved offensive line. Throw in a retooling Steelers team, and we’re signing off on this game staying within a touchdown.

Titans (+7) over STEELERS

 

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 56
            New Orleans was a team I never picked correctly last season, and I expect this year to be no different. On paper, the Falcons offense shreds the Saints.

Falcons (+3) over SAINTS

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 39.5
            A line that feels at least two points too low, but your getting a Josh Freeman discount.

Buccaneers (-4.5) over JETS

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            The obvious rebound team faces one of the obvious worst teams in the league. The longer Blaine Gabbert is involved, the longer Jacksonville should be wagered against any time you’re getting less than a touchdown.

Chiefs (-4.5) over JAGUARS

 

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            One of the more difficult match ups to predict, we’ll bet on home field advantage as our tiebreaker.

BEARS (-3) over Bengals

Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 41
            Here’s your under bet of the week, for those of you who love cheering against points.

Dolphins (+1.5) over BROWNS

 

Seattle Seahawks (-4) @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45
            Your “No Credentials Upset of the Week That is Destined to Fail”, sponsored by Microsoft.

PANTHERS (+4) over Seahawks

 

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 47
            I’m not sold on the Vikings, but any team coached by Jim Schwartz doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than three points.

Vikings (+6) over LIONS

 

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Oakland is atrocious. Absolutely atrocious.

COLTS (-10.5) over Raiders

 

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41.5
            Carson Palmer will put up some stats, but he will also get sacked seven times.

RAMS (-4.5) over Cardinals

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 49
            San Francisco isn’t a good place to show up and play when you have a banged up offensive line.

49ERS (-5.5) over Packers

 

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 50
            Eli Manning is undefeated in Jerry-World, but the run has to end eventually. Dallas has more talent, and fortunately no one is injured yet.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Giants

 

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) @ Washington Redskins

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 52.5
            I don’t feel great either way about this game, but even if Kirk Cousins gets involved at some point, the Eagles defense is bad enough for Washington to cover.

REDSKINS (-4.5) over Eagles

Houston Texans (-5.5) @ San Diego Chargers

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 45
            Weird stuff usually happens in the second Monday night game during Week 1, but normally the game doesn’t feature a contending team. Houston has it’s flaws, but the defense is stout enough to hold the Chargers in check.

Texans (-5.5) over CHARGERS

Ethan’s Picks

Bill’s cover, combined rushing attempts 100.

Tennessee, and they win because Pittsburgh’s O-line sucks.
New Orleans, they are like 11-2 against the dirty birds.
Tampa Bay, Jets are already fighting Oakland for #1 pick.
KC, Blaine Gabbert is pretty fun to watch.
Bengals, Cutler is too much of a gunslinger for a west coast offense.
Browns, in Weeden I trust.
Seattle, by 20.
Adrian Peterson, I refuse to call them the Vikings (to cover).
Oakland barely covers because they have to ensure a loss to keep pace with the Jets.
St. Louis, but who cares in that division.
San Fran, by 2 TDs
NYG, Dallas has yet to prove they can beat these guys in their own stadium.  Lose by a TD.
Philly, RGIII is exposed quickly
Houston, J.J. Watt kills someone.
 

Thursday Pick = 0-1

Ethan’s Thursday Pick = 1-0

2013 NFC East Preview

         Our second division preview discusses the division closest to the heart of No Credentials. Each team has a division title in each of the last four years, a fact no other division can claim.


4. Philadelphia Eagles

 

2012 Record = 4-12, fourth in NFC East

2013 Schedule = @ Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Giants, @ Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, @ Raiders, @ Packers, Redskins, BYE, Cardinals, Lions, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Cowboys

Franchise Players = RB LeSean McCoy, LG Evan Mathis

Supporting Cast = QB Michael Vick, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin (out for year, torn ACL), TE Brent Celek, LT Jason Peters, RG Todd Herremans, DT Fletcher Cox, OLB Conner Barwin, OLB Brandon Graham, MLB DeMeco Ryans, OLB Trent Cole
Notable Rookies = RT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma, 1-4), TE Zach Ertz (Stanford, 2-35), QB Matt Barkley (USC, 4-98)

Offensive Outlook = I’d like to make this the 52,928,393^rd page on the Internet that says the Philadelphia Eagles will play fast. If that translates to victories or not is questionable. A quick hitting offense will go along way in keeping Michael Vick (No Credentials has been wrong before, but we don’t see Nick “the Pizza Delivery Man” Foles or Matt Barkley winning the starting gig) on the field, as will the return of a healthy Jason Peters. If Lane Johnson catches on quickly, Philadelphia will have its best pair of offensive tackles since Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas. Regardless of the offense’s effectiveness, LeSean McCoy should make a return to his elite 2011 form after a concussion-riddled season last year. Chip Kelly ran the ball a ton at Oregon, so there’s no reason to expect he’ll abandon it in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Bryce Brown also has a chance to provide value if Philly commits to 30 carries a game. The passing attack took a huge hit with the loss of Maclin. DeSean Jackson is still around, and could set a career high in receptions if he is utilized on quick screens. Arrelious Benn has the size and speed to fill Maclin’s shoes, but never produced at an elite level during his time in Tampa Bay.  
Defensive Outlook = The Eagles are making a switch to a 3-4 base defense, which unfortunately they do not have the personal for. DeMeco Ryans played in the 3-4 at Houston, but other than that there’s a bunch of square pegs that need to fit into round holes. Asking Trent Cole to play linebacker is similar to signing Adam Sandler up to play Gandhi, as he brings virtually no coverage or run stopping skills to the table. Philadelphia blew up their secondary, which if new safeties Kenny Phillips and Patrick Chung stay healthy, will be an improvement.  

Ceiling = 10-6 – Vick needs to stay on the field for ten games and not suck. 0.002% chance this happens.

Floor = 2-14 – “Barkley drops back to pass, fires…INTERCEPTED!”
Prediction = 3-13
            They will be entertaining, and two of their wins will probably come against the Cowboys, but the lack of defensive talent will be the undoing of the Eagles. Sucking probably isn’t a terrible thing, as they’ll have a great chance to land a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.
 

3. Washington Redskins

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in NFC East

2013 Schedule = Eagles, @ Packers, Lions, @ Raiders, BYE, @ Cowboys, Bears, @ Broncos, Chargers, @ Vikings, @ Eagles, 49ers, Giants, Chiefs, @ Falcons, Cowboys, @ Giants

Franchise Players = QB Robert Griffin III, RB Alfred Morris, LT Trent Williams, OLB Brian Orakpo

Supporting Cast = TE Fred Davis, C Will Montgomery, MLB London Fletcher, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, CB DeAngelo Hall, K Kai Forbath
Notable Rookies = CB David Amerson (N.C. State, 2-51), TE Jordan Reed (Florida, 3-85)

Offensive Outlook = We could talk about how awesome Alfred Morris is, or how good Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis could be if they could stay on the field, but everything for the Redskins boils down to Robert Griffin III. Off-hand, here’s the questions surrounding RGIII as we enter the season.

Is he healthy?

Will he have his mobility?

Can he dial back his scrambling to avoid serious hits?

            If the answer to those three questions is yes, you can pencil in the Redskins for a second straight division title.

Defensive Outlook = Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett ran the same defense I normally run in Madden, which meant he blitzed six or seven guys 50% of the time. The return of Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker hopefully means they can dial back the blitz, as it often left their mediocre secondary in one-on-one coverage. Orakpo in particular is capable of single-handedly dominating games. The linebacker core is solid, led by 96-year-old London Fletcher.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Robert Griffin III will be hoisting an MVP trophy if Washington wins 12 games.

Floor = 3-13 – Kirk Cousins looked good when pressed into action, but he’s not that good.
Prediction = 7-9
            I’m a logic driven person, and logically, I can’t see RGIII holding up. It won’t be shocking if they come out of the gate 3-1, but they are one big hit on their franchise quarterback away from becoming a team that can’t overcome it’s defensive deficiencies. Kirk Cousins getting a four game cameo might not be the worst thing long term, as he could be a tool to reacquire some draft picks (remember, there 2014 first rounder is going to St. Louis).
 

2. New York Giants

 

 

2012 Record = 9-7, second in NFC East

2013 Schedule = @ Cowboys, Broncos, @ Panthers, @ Chiefs, Eagles, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Eagles, BYE, Raiders, Packers, Cowboys, @ Redskins, @ Chargers, Seahawks, @ Lions, Redskins

Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz, DE Jason Pierre-Paul

Supporting Cast = RB David Wilson, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE Brandon Myers, LT Will Beatty, RG David Snee, DE Justin Tuck, DT Cullen Jenkins, FS Antrel Rolle
Notable Rookies = RT Justin Pugh (Syracuse, 1-19), DT Johnathan Hankins (Ohio St., 2-49)

Offensive Outlook = For proof of how mind-numbingly inconsistent the Giants were on offense last year, here’s the amount of points they scored in each game last season.

17

41
36
17
41
26
27
29
20
13
38
16
52
0
14
42

            For those not interested in counting, there were six games they scored more than 35 points, and six games they scored under 20. I guess that’s the price you pay for employing Eli Manning as your starting quarterback. Manning can be as clutch as any quarterback in the NFL, but also is capable of delivering a slew of stinkers (see his week 8 through 10 stats last year for proof of this). Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, but that opens the door for electrifying second year pro David Wilson. Wilson spent some time in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse last year, but has the big play ability that the Giants have been lacking in the running game since Tiki Barber was in town. Victor Cruz was effective last year, but he needs a healthy Hakeem Nicks to free up opposing defenses’ focus on him. Nicks is playing for a new contract next year, and if his health doesn’t fail him, he’ll be motivated. Reuben Randle was raw as a rookie, but has the physical ability to make an impact in his second season. Brandon Myers productivity in Oakland was noticed by roughly 600 people, but Giants fans should be sure that they have an upgrade over Martellus Bennett.

Defensive Outlook = The hallmark of the New York’s two Super Bowl victories over New England was it’s devastating pass rush. Unfortunately, their rush was absent in 2012. The Giants sack total dropped to 33 (down from 48 in 2011), and most of that can be attributed to an out-of-shape Jason Pierre-Paul. An entire defense whose success was predicated on pressuring the quarterback collapsed. It’s reasonable to expect J.P.P. to rebound (he admitted he wasn’t physically prepared for last season), but expecting Justin Tuck to return to his past level of performance is asking too much. Cullen Jenkins was their big free agent acquisition, and he’s the best defensive tackle they’ve had since Tom Coughlin has been the head coach. It’s incredible that Corey Webster still has a job in the NFL after his abysmal 2012 campaign, but New York is banking on a rebound by their embattled starting cornerback. Aaron Ross does return after a year in Jacksonville, and will provide solid play in the nickel package.   

Ceiling = 14-2 – Eli Manning is due for a consistent 16-game campaign.

Floor = 6-10 – He’s also due for a 28-interception disaster.
Prediction = 9-7
            Is there any other win total you can forecast for the Giants other than nine games? Their first six games will go along way in determining what their season looks like, as they have to navigate four interesting road games. My money is on them starting 3-3, setting them up for a wildcard berth.
 

1. Dallas Cowboys

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in NFC East

2013 Schedule = Giants, @ Chiefs, Rams, @ Chargers, Broncos, Redskins, @ Eagles, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Saints, BYE, @ Giants, Raiders, @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Eagles

Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, DE DeMarcus Ware, DE Anthony Spencer

Supporting Cast = RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin, LT Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, MLB Sean Lee, OLB Bruce Carter, CB Brandon Carr
Notable Rookies = C Travis Frederick (Wisconsin, 1-31), RB Joseph Randle (Oklahoma St., 5-151)

Offensive Outlook = Everyone knows the book on Tony Romo. We’ve written about it in this space before. The team we just discussed has proven that you can win with a quarterback who isn’t consistent. All of the skill players are there for the Cowboys to succeed. DeMarco Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s injury prone and can’t stay on the field. Rookie Joseph Randle could be able to fill in if needed at an adequate level. Dez Bryant finally broke out last season, and is firmly entrenched as a top-5 receiver in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. If Miles Austin could replace his balky hamstrings, he’d be right there with Bryant as an elite receiver. Jason Witten caught a career high 110 passes this year, and barring an improbable reoccurrence, will not start the season playing with a ruptured spleen. Tyron Smith made a relatively smooth transition to left tackle, but the rest of the line was a disaster. First round pick Travis Frederick should provide some stability to the interior of the line, and Dallas is betting an awful lot on Doug Free returning to his 2009 form.

Defensive Outlook = I’m not sure if there’s a greater change you could make between defensive coordinators than going from Rob Ryan to 176-year-old Monte Kiffin. Unlike Philadelphia, the Cowboys have the personal to make the move from the 3-4 to the 4-3. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will make the move to defensive end, but switching to full-time pass rushing roles isn’t a bad thing for this duo. Jay Ratliff also has a chance to rebound, as a 4-3 scheme gives defensive tackles a better chance to penetrate the offensive line. Jason Hatcher has performed well when called upon, and should thrive now that he has a full-time starting role. Sean Lee and Bruce Carter showed flashes of brilliance last year before having their seasons ended by injury. Brandon Carr brought some stability to the secondary, but Morris Claiborne had a mostly forgettable rookie year. A leap by him in his sophomore campaign would lift the Cowboys to a top-10 level defense.

Ceiling = 13-3 – If Dallas keeps all of its key players healthy, the talent is there for a 13 win campaign.

Floor = 6-10 – Most of Dallas players are injury prone, so this accounts for all of them getting hurt.
Prediction = 11-5
            Call me a homer, but when I look at the Cowboys schedule, I don’t see any un-winnable games. Their two toughest non-division opponents (Denver and Green Bay) they face at home. They could very easily go 4-4 or 5-3 on the road, which means if they take care of business at home, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South