4. Philadelphia Eagles
2012 Record = 4-12, fourth in NFC East
2013 Schedule = @ Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs, @
Broncos, @ Giants, @ Buccaneers, Cowboys, Giants, @ Raiders, @ Packers,
Redskins, BYE, Cardinals, Lions, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Cowboys
Franchise Players = RB LeSean McCoy, LG Evan Mathis
Supporting Cast = QB Michael Vick, WR DeSean Jackson,
WR Jeremy Maclin (out for year, torn ACL), TE Brent Celek, LT Jason Peters, RG
Todd Herremans, DT Fletcher Cox, OLB Conner Barwin, OLB Brandon Graham, MLB
DeMeco Ryans, OLB Trent ColeNotable Rookies = RT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma, 1-4), TE Zach Ertz (Stanford, 2-35), QB Matt Barkley (USC, 4-98)
Offensive Outlook = I’d like to make this the 52,928,393rd page on the Internet that says the Philadelphia Eagles will play fast. If that translates to victories or not is questionable. A quick hitting offense will go along way in keeping Michael Vick (No Credentials has been wrong before, but we don’t see Nick “the Pizza Delivery Man” Foles or Matt Barkley winning the starting gig) on the field, as will the return of a healthy Jason Peters. If Lane Johnson catches on quickly, Philadelphia will have its best pair of offensive tackles since Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas. Regardless of the offense’s effectiveness, LeSean McCoy should make a return to his elite 2011 form after a concussion-riddled season last year. Chip Kelly ran the ball a ton at Oregon, so there’s no reason to expect he’ll abandon it in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Bryce Brown also has a chance to provide value if Philly commits to 30 carries a game. The passing attack took a huge hit with the loss of Maclin. DeSean Jackson is still around, and could set a career high in receptions if he is utilized on quick screens. Arrelious Benn has the size and speed to fill Maclin’s shoes, but never produced at an elite level during his time in Tampa Bay.
Defensive Outlook = The Eagles are making a switch to a 3-4 base defense, which unfortunately they do not have the personal for. DeMeco Ryans played in the 3-4 at Houston, but other than that there’s a bunch of square pegs that need to fit into round holes. Asking Trent Cole to play linebacker is similar to signing Adam Sandler up to play Gandhi, as he brings virtually no coverage or run stopping skills to the table. Philadelphia blew up their secondary, which if new safeties Kenny Phillips and Patrick Chung stay healthy, will be an improvement.
Ceiling = 10-6 – Vick needs to stay on the field for
ten games and not suck. 0.002% chance this happens.
Floor = 2-14 – “Barkley drops back to pass,
fires…INTERCEPTED!”Prediction = 3-13
They will be entertaining, and two of their wins will probably come against the Cowboys, but the lack of defensive talent will be the undoing of the Eagles. Sucking probably isn’t a terrible thing, as they’ll have a great chance to land a franchise quarterback in next year’s draft.
3. Washington Redskins
2012 Record = 10-6, first in NFC East
2013 Schedule = Eagles, @ Packers, Lions, @ Raiders,
BYE, @ Cowboys, Bears, @ Broncos, Chargers, @ Vikings, @ Eagles, 49ers, Giants,
Chiefs, @ Falcons, Cowboys, @ Giants
Franchise Players = QB Robert Griffin III, RB Alfred
Morris, LT Trent Williams, OLB Brian Orakpo
Supporting Cast = TE Fred Davis, C Will Montgomery,
MLB London Fletcher, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, CB DeAngelo Hall, K Kai ForbathNotable Rookies = CB David Amerson (N.C. State, 2-51), TE Jordan Reed (Florida, 3-85)
Offensive Outlook = We could talk about how awesome
Alfred Morris is, or how good Pierre Garcon and Fred Davis could be if they
could stay on the field, but everything for the Redskins boils down to Robert
Griffin III. Off-hand, here’s the questions surrounding RGIII as we enter the
season.
Is he healthy?
Will he have his mobility?
Can he dial back his scrambling to avoid serious hits?
If the
answer to those three questions is yes, you can pencil in the Redskins for a
second straight division title.
Defensive Outlook = Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett
ran the same defense I normally run in Madden, which meant he blitzed six or
seven guys 50% of the time. The return of Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker
hopefully means they can dial back the blitz, as it often left their mediocre
secondary in one-on-one coverage. Orakpo in particular is capable of
single-handedly dominating games. The linebacker core is solid, led by
96-year-old London Fletcher.
Ceiling = 12-4 – Robert Griffin III will be hoisting
an MVP trophy if Washington wins 12 games.
Floor = 3-13 – Kirk Cousins looked good when pressed
into action, but he’s not that good.Prediction = 7-9
I’m a logic driven person, and logically, I can’t see RGIII holding up. It won’t be shocking if they come out of the gate 3-1, but they are one big hit on their franchise quarterback away from becoming a team that can’t overcome it’s defensive deficiencies. Kirk Cousins getting a four game cameo might not be the worst thing long term, as he could be a tool to reacquire some draft picks (remember, there 2014 first rounder is going to St. Louis).
2. New York Giants
2012 Record = 9-7, second in NFC East
2013 Schedule = @ Cowboys, Broncos, @ Panthers, @
Chiefs, Eagles, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Eagles, BYE, Raiders, Packers, Cowboys, @
Redskins, @ Chargers, Seahawks, @ Lions, Redskins
Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, WR Victor Cruz,
DE Jason Pierre-Paul
Supporting Cast = RB David Wilson, WR Hakeem Nicks,
TE Brandon Myers, LT Will Beatty, RG David Snee, DE Justin Tuck, DT Cullen
Jenkins, FS Antrel Rolle Notable Rookies = RT Justin Pugh (Syracuse, 1-19), DT Johnathan Hankins (Ohio St., 2-49)
Offensive Outlook = For proof of how mind-numbingly
inconsistent the Giants were on offense last year, here’s the amount of points
they scored in each game last season.
17
4136
17
41
26
27
29
20
13
38
16
52
0
14
42
For those
not interested in counting, there were six games they scored more than 35
points, and six games they scored under 20. I guess that’s the price you pay
for employing Eli Manning as your starting quarterback. Manning can be as
clutch as any quarterback in the NFL, but also is capable of delivering a slew
of stinkers (see his week 8 through 10 stats last year for proof of this).
Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, but that opens the door for electrifying second year
pro David Wilson. Wilson spent some time in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse last year,
but has the big play ability that the Giants have been lacking in the running
game since Tiki Barber was in town. Victor Cruz was effective last year, but he
needs a healthy Hakeem Nicks to free up opposing defenses’ focus on him. Nicks
is playing for a new contract next year, and if his health doesn’t fail him,
he’ll be motivated. Reuben Randle was raw as a rookie, but has the physical
ability to make an impact in his second season. Brandon Myers productivity in
Oakland was noticed by roughly 600 people, but Giants fans should be sure that
they have an upgrade over Martellus Bennett.
Defensive Outlook = The hallmark of the New York’s
two Super Bowl victories over New England was it’s devastating pass rush.
Unfortunately, their rush was absent in 2012. The Giants sack total dropped to
33 (down from 48 in 2011), and most of that can be attributed to an
out-of-shape Jason Pierre-Paul. An entire defense whose success was predicated
on pressuring the quarterback collapsed. It’s reasonable to expect J.P.P. to
rebound (he admitted he wasn’t physically prepared for last season), but
expecting Justin Tuck to return to his past level of performance is asking too
much. Cullen Jenkins was their big free agent acquisition, and he’s the best
defensive tackle they’ve had since Tom Coughlin has been the head coach. It’s
incredible that Corey Webster still has a job in the NFL after his abysmal 2012
campaign, but New York is banking on a rebound by their embattled starting
cornerback. Aaron Ross does return after a year in Jacksonville, and will
provide solid play in the nickel package.
Ceiling = 14-2 – Eli Manning is due for a consistent
16-game campaign.
Floor = 6-10 – He’s also due for a 28-interception
disaster.Prediction = 9-7
Is there any other win total you can forecast for the Giants other than nine games? Their first six games will go along way in determining what their season looks like, as they have to navigate four interesting road games. My money is on them starting 3-3, setting them up for a wildcard berth.
1. Dallas Cowboys
2012 Record = 8-8, third in NFC East
2013 Schedule = Giants, @ Chiefs, Rams, @ Chargers,
Broncos, Redskins, @ Eagles, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Saints, BYE, @ Giants,
Raiders, @ Bears, Packers, @ Redskins, Eagles
Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, WR Dez Bryant, TE
Jason Witten, DE DeMarcus Ware, DE Anthony Spencer
Supporting Cast = RB DeMarco Murray, WR Miles Austin,
LT Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, MLB Sean Lee, OLB Bruce Carter, CB Brandon CarrNotable Rookies = C Travis Frederick (Wisconsin, 1-31), RB Joseph Randle (Oklahoma St., 5-151)
Offensive Outlook = Everyone knows the book on Tony
Romo. We’ve written about it in this space before. The team we just discussed
has proven that you can win with a quarterback who isn’t consistent. All of the
skill players are there for the Cowboys to succeed. DeMarco Murray has shown
flashes of brilliance, but he’s injury prone and can’t stay on the field. Rookie
Joseph Randle could be able to fill in if needed at an adequate level. Dez
Bryant finally broke out last season, and is firmly entrenched as a top-5
receiver in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. If Miles Austin could replace his
balky hamstrings, he’d be right there with Bryant as an elite receiver. Jason
Witten caught a career high 110 passes this year, and barring an improbable
reoccurrence, will not start the season playing with a ruptured spleen. Tyron
Smith made a relatively smooth transition to left tackle, but the rest of the
line was a disaster. First round pick Travis Frederick should provide some
stability to the interior of the line, and Dallas is betting an awful lot on
Doug Free returning to his 2009 form.
Defensive Outlook = I’m not sure if there’s a greater
change you could make between defensive coordinators than going from Rob Ryan
to 176-year-old Monte Kiffin. Unlike Philadelphia, the Cowboys have the
personal to make the move from the 3-4 to the 4-3. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony
Spencer will make the move to defensive end, but switching to full-time pass
rushing roles isn’t a bad thing for this duo. Jay Ratliff also has a chance to
rebound, as a 4-3 scheme gives defensive tackles a better chance to penetrate
the offensive line. Jason Hatcher has performed well when called upon, and
should thrive now that he has a full-time starting role. Sean Lee and Bruce
Carter showed flashes of brilliance last year before having their seasons ended
by injury. Brandon Carr brought some stability to the secondary, but Morris
Claiborne had a mostly forgettable rookie year. A leap by him in his sophomore
campaign would lift the Cowboys to a top-10 level defense.
Ceiling = 13-3 – If Dallas keeps all of its key
players healthy, the talent is there for a 13 win campaign.
Floor = 6-10 – Most of Dallas players are injury
prone, so this accounts for all of them getting hurt.Prediction = 11-5
Call me a homer, but when I look at the Cowboys schedule, I don’t see any un-winnable games. Their two toughest non-division opponents (Denver and Green Bay) they face at home. They could very easily go 4-4 or 5-3 on the road, which means if they take care of business at home, the Cowboys will win the NFC East.
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