2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

NFL Week 1 Picks

            We’re back with another year of shoddy football picks. No Credentials nailed Week 1 (visit our Facebook page for proof, and while your there do me a solid and like the page), so perhaps we’re in for a banner gambling year.

Saints (-3.5) over FALCONS

       Assuming the Saints are one of the three best teams in the NFC, we think we are getting a 3-point discount on this line.     

Vikings (+3.5) over RAMS

            In Week 1 battles of teams likely to end up in the top 10 of next year’s draft, we’ll take the points.

Browns (+7) over STEELERS

            Ditto.

EAGLES (-10.5) over Jaguars

            Here’s your suicide pool pick.

Raiders (+5.5) over JETS

            Here’s another bottom feeder match-up.

RAVENS (-1) over Bengals

            We’re predicting Andy Dalton lays a Week 1 stinker.

BEARS (-7) over Bills

            Here’s your second suicide pool pick.

TEXANS (-3) over Redskins

            Houston’s defense is a tough draw for RGIII.

CHIEFS (-3.5) over Titans

            Kansas City is due for regression, but Tennessee isn’t equipped to take advantage of it.

DOLPHINS (+4.5) over Patriots

            For my money, the hardest line to pick of the week. We’re guessing New England wins by a field goal.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Panthers

            Too many red flags with the Panthers for us to take them on the road.

49ers (-4) over COWBOYS

            I don’t care how many more 49ers get arrested before kickoff tomorrow. They are still going to cut through the Cowboys’ defense like Swiss cheese.

BRONCOS (-8) over Colts

            Denver is going to make an example out of the Colts in this one.

LIONS (-6.5) over Giants

            At first glance this line feels high, but when one takes stock of the performance of the Giants offense last year and this pre-season, it’s warranted.

Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS

            This game will be the litmus test for whether or not the NFC is significantly better than the AFC this year.

Thursday Pick = 1-0

Week 1 NFL Picks

            Last year, Week 1 destroyed No Credentials. A 3-13 stink bomb set us behind the eight ball early. This year, we’re not off to a good start (although I stand behind my opening night pick. Wasn’t my fault one of Baltimore’s two competent receivers was run into by his own guy on a punt, or that Peyton Manning went bonkers. Nevermind, it was my fault. You never bet against Peyton Manning at night), but the rest of the Week 1 will be better. Why? Well…I don’t know.
            As a special treat for No Credentials readers (all six of you), we invited friend of the blog Ethan Hedrick to also make picks every week (EDITORS NOTE: Actually, he invited himself, but I figured it wasn’t a bad idea. Instead of one person posting bad picks, why not two?). His picks will be listed below mine. He claims to have picked Denver in his office pool, so we’ll spot him a 1-0 lead.
            Without further ado, the rest of my shitty Week 1 picks.
 

New England Patriots (-10.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 51
            New England ran for approximately 1,253 yards in the two games they played against Buffalo last year. Throw in a few E.J. Manuel turnovers and this one will be a runaway.

Patriots (-10.5) over BILLS
 

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            I wrote in the preseason how I had a good feeling about Tennessee’s improved offensive line. Throw in a retooling Steelers team, and we’re signing off on this game staying within a touchdown.

Titans (+7) over STEELERS

 

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 56
            New Orleans was a team I never picked correctly last season, and I expect this year to be no different. On paper, the Falcons offense shreds the Saints.

Falcons (+3) over SAINTS

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 39.5
            A line that feels at least two points too low, but your getting a Josh Freeman discount.

Buccaneers (-4.5) over JETS

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            The obvious rebound team faces one of the obvious worst teams in the league. The longer Blaine Gabbert is involved, the longer Jacksonville should be wagered against any time you’re getting less than a touchdown.

Chiefs (-4.5) over JAGUARS

 

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            One of the more difficult match ups to predict, we’ll bet on home field advantage as our tiebreaker.

BEARS (-3) over Bengals

Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 41
            Here’s your under bet of the week, for those of you who love cheering against points.

Dolphins (+1.5) over BROWNS

 

Seattle Seahawks (-4) @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45
            Your “No Credentials Upset of the Week That is Destined to Fail”, sponsored by Microsoft.

PANTHERS (+4) over Seahawks

 

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 47
            I’m not sold on the Vikings, but any team coached by Jim Schwartz doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than three points.

Vikings (+6) over LIONS

 

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Oakland is atrocious. Absolutely atrocious.

COLTS (-10.5) over Raiders

 

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41.5
            Carson Palmer will put up some stats, but he will also get sacked seven times.

RAMS (-4.5) over Cardinals

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 49
            San Francisco isn’t a good place to show up and play when you have a banged up offensive line.

49ERS (-5.5) over Packers

 

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 50
            Eli Manning is undefeated in Jerry-World, but the run has to end eventually. Dallas has more talent, and fortunately no one is injured yet.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Giants

 

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) @ Washington Redskins

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 52.5
            I don’t feel great either way about this game, but even if Kirk Cousins gets involved at some point, the Eagles defense is bad enough for Washington to cover.

REDSKINS (-4.5) over Eagles

Houston Texans (-5.5) @ San Diego Chargers

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 45
            Weird stuff usually happens in the second Monday night game during Week 1, but normally the game doesn’t feature a contending team. Houston has it’s flaws, but the defense is stout enough to hold the Chargers in check.

Texans (-5.5) over CHARGERS

Ethan’s Picks

Bill’s cover, combined rushing attempts 100.

Tennessee, and they win because Pittsburgh’s O-line sucks.
New Orleans, they are like 11-2 against the dirty birds.
Tampa Bay, Jets are already fighting Oakland for #1 pick.
KC, Blaine Gabbert is pretty fun to watch.
Bengals, Cutler is too much of a gunslinger for a west coast offense.
Browns, in Weeden I trust.
Seattle, by 20.
Adrian Peterson, I refuse to call them the Vikings (to cover).
Oakland barely covers because they have to ensure a loss to keep pace with the Jets.
St. Louis, but who cares in that division.
San Fran, by 2 TDs
NYG, Dallas has yet to prove they can beat these guys in their own stadium.  Lose by a TD.
Philly, RGIII is exposed quickly
Houston, J.J. Watt kills someone.
 

Thursday Pick = 0-1

Ethan’s Thursday Pick = 1-0

Week 1 NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            I attempted to talk myself into a Colts cover (I even typed three sentences making a case for it), but with the removal of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, it’s much more likely that Chicago jams the ball down the Colts’ throats all game long. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis won’t have many opportunities to get Jay Cutler to the ground.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43
            Short of a road trip to Jacksonville, Philadelphia couldn’t of asked for a better Week 1 road game. There’s too much Brandon Weeden involved to support a Browns upset.

Eagles (-9.5) over BROWNS

 

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 38.5
            I’m on the record as saying I think the Jets will stink and the Bills will be playoff contenders, and I’m not backing down from that belief. Buffalo’s revamped defense will be able to handle New York’s quarterbacks (regardless of which one is in the game). It won’t be pretty, but look for Buffalo to make a statement on the road.

Bills (+3) over JETS

 

Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 49.5
            This game is going to be a savage, 2007-Patriot like beat-down. Robert Griffin III could account for three touchdowns and the ‘Skins could still lose by 30.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Redskins

Week 1 Top-5 Pick

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Tennessee isn’t as bad as most experts seem to be predicting. Assuming Jake Locker is competent, Tennessee’s pass rush will keep the Titans close. I wouldn’t bet the Titans’ money line, but I’ll go out on a small limb and say they only lose to the Patriots by 3.

TITANS (+5.5) over Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 39.5
            Here’s this week’s winner of the “Game With the Most Implications on Who Gets the First Overall Pick in Next Year’s Draft Award”. This could be the only week that Minnesota is favored to win all season, but it is 100% warranted. Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting quarterback in the league. He’ll have a hard time keeping his eyes off of Jared Allen.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            Ron Jaworski said a couple of nice things about Dolphins rookie Ryan Tannehill on “Pardon the Interruption” the other day. I’m not buying them.

TEXANS (-13) over Dolphins
 

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45.5
            I don’t completely trust the Lions this year, but asking St. Louis to keep this game within two scores is asking a lot. Detroit’s warts won’t show up until Week 2.

LIONS (-8) over Rams

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43.5
            For my brain anyway, this is the hardest game to predict. Atlanta has generated more buzz this off-season, but Kansas City returns three key players who missed the majority of last season with ACL injuries to a team that two years ago was in the playoffs. When in doubt, take the points.

CHIEFS (+3) over Falcons

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            At first glance, one would call this game the battle of an immovable object (the 49ers defense) against an unstoppable force (the Packers offense). However, one should remember the immovable object gave up 466 passing yards to Drew Brees in the Divisional Round last January. Aaron Rodgers will figure out a way to pull this one out.     

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

 

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            This was another tough call, but let’s talk about the over/under. You’re telling me that two of the worst defenses from last season can’t allow seven touchdowns? I love the over. Remember that when the final score is 24-21 Carolina.

Panthers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41
            Unpopular opinion alert…Russell Wilson is going to suck. Sure he looked great when preseason defenses were running vanilla plays, but watch what happens when he has to deal with a zone blitz. I can’t figure out how people have been so quick to jump on the Wilson bandwagon. Remember this when he throws four touchdowns against the Cardinals.

CARDINALS (+3) over Seahawks

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 44.5
            I lost a ton of money when the combo of God and Tim Tebow brought down Pittsburgh in the playoffs last season, so it’s only fitting that I pick the Steelers again as one of my Top-5 Picks of the week. Peyton Manning is one of the five greatest quarterbacks to ever chuck the pigskin, but to think he’ll lead Denver to victory in his first game in two years is preposterous, especially against one of the top-5 defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. 

Steelers (+2) over BRONCOS

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 41.5
            Cincinnati kept it close against Baltimore twice last season. Seven points is too high for this line.

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 46.5
            The second game of ESPN’s doubleheader (which you should all be prepared to watch with your mute on, Chris Berman is doing the play-by-play) always seems to be a weird game. Assuming Darren McFadden doesn’t pull his groin until after the start of the fourth quarter, I think the Raiders will pull off a win at home.

RAIDERS (-1) over Chargers

 

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (great reverse jinx by me!)

Week 1 NFL Picks

            Here’s our full slate of Week 1 picks. For each game, I will assign a “confidence score”. This will indicate which picks I feel the most comfortable with. For example, of the 16 Week 1 games, I felt the most confident about Green Bay covering a 5-point spread against New Orleans Thursday night, so the score for that game was a 16. For those of you who are foolish enough to make wagers based on my advice, I’d probably look at games that I assign a score of 10 or higher as solid selections against the point spread. Now on to the picks…

RAVENS (-1.5) over Steelers

            Ben Roethlisberger has owned Joe Flacco, going 6-0 against him (including two playoff wins). Look for Flacco and the Ravens to break through and hold serve at home.

Baltimore 15, Pittsburgh 13

Confidence Score = 1

Lions (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS

            A tough one for me, as Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford are two of my favorite under the radar fantasy quarterbacks. When faced with times of uncertainty, just take the points.

Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 17

Confidence Score = 3

Falcons (-2.5) over BEARS

            Jay Cutler may not know it yet, but a sack party is scheduled for 12pm Chicago time, and Ray Edwards and John Abraham are invited.

Atlanta 16, Chicago 7

Confidence Score = 4

CHIEFS (-6) over Bills

            On paper one might think this game should be a blowout, but remember that Buffalo pushed Kansas City to overtime last season in Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City 31, Buffalo 24

Confidence Score = 7

TEXANS (-9) over Colts

            For anyone that has ever doubted the ability of Peyton Manning, you are about to find out how good he is when Kerry Collins is taking the snaps for Indy. Expect Houston to let out some pent up frustration on them (unless Head Coach Gary Kubiak screws it up, which is a possibility).

Houston 45, Indianapolis 13

Confidence Score = 13

Eagles (-4.5) over RAMS

            St. Louis will keep it fairly close, but the Eagles have too many weapons.

Philadelphia 24, St. Louis 14
Confidence Score = 8

BROWNS (-6.5) over Bengals

            There are no circumstances that I will pick Cincinnati on the road, unless they are getting more than 14 points.

Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 6

Confidence Score = 14

Titans (+2) over JAGUARS

            So I can bet against a team that just cut it’s starting quarterback six days before their first game? And I’m getting two points? Where do I sign?

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 3

Confidence Score = 15

Giants (-3) over REDSKINS

            I don’t think FOX could’ve ended up with a worse game as their national telecast than this one. Couldn’t we have flipped this one with the Eagles-Rams game?

New York 17, Washington 10
Confidence Score = 9

CARDINALS (-7) over Panthers

            If Carolina hits double-digits in this game, that will be an accomplishment. It will be a while before Cam Newton will be able to guide an efficient offense.

Arizona 17, Carolina 0

Confidence Score = 12

49ERS (-5.5) over Seahawks

            It’s hard to believe that a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith would be 5.5-point favorites, but when you take into account the opponent will be captained by Tavaris Jackson, it’s understandable.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 7

Confidence Score = 11

Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
            I’m not crazy about Minnesota, but San Diego has a tendency of scuffling during the month of September. They’ll pull the game out, but it will be closer than the experts think.

San Diego 20, Minnesota 17

Confidence Score = 6

Cowboys (+5) over JETS

            Call me a homer, but 5 points just feels too high. Expect a low scoring affair in the Meadowlands.

New York 14, Dallas 10
Confidence Score = 2

Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS

            No Credentials isn’t banking on a banner day from Tom Brady, but does feel confident that Chad Henne will serve up something that resembles a crap sandwich.

New England 27, Miami 10

Confidence Score = 10

BRONCOS (-3) over Raiders

            We’ll find out if my prediction that Oakland will be a terrible team is correct after this game.

Denver 27, Oakland 17

Confidence Score = 5