Week 1 NFL Picks

            Here’s our full slate of Week 1 picks. For each game, I will assign a “confidence score”. This will indicate which picks I feel the most comfortable with. For example, of the 16 Week 1 games, I felt the most confident about Green Bay covering a 5-point spread against New Orleans Thursday night, so the score for that game was a 16. For those of you who are foolish enough to make wagers based on my advice, I’d probably look at games that I assign a score of 10 or higher as solid selections against the point spread. Now on to the picks…

RAVENS (-1.5) over Steelers

            Ben Roethlisberger has owned Joe Flacco, going 6-0 against him (including two playoff wins). Look for Flacco and the Ravens to break through and hold serve at home.

Baltimore 15, Pittsburgh 13

Confidence Score = 1

Lions (+1.5) over BUCCANEERS

            A tough one for me, as Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford are two of my favorite under the radar fantasy quarterbacks. When faced with times of uncertainty, just take the points.

Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 17

Confidence Score = 3

Falcons (-2.5) over BEARS

            Jay Cutler may not know it yet, but a sack party is scheduled for 12pm Chicago time, and Ray Edwards and John Abraham are invited.

Atlanta 16, Chicago 7

Confidence Score = 4

CHIEFS (-6) over Bills

            On paper one might think this game should be a blowout, but remember that Buffalo pushed Kansas City to overtime last season in Arrowhead Stadium.

Kansas City 31, Buffalo 24

Confidence Score = 7

TEXANS (-9) over Colts

            For anyone that has ever doubted the ability of Peyton Manning, you are about to find out how good he is when Kerry Collins is taking the snaps for Indy. Expect Houston to let out some pent up frustration on them (unless Head Coach Gary Kubiak screws it up, which is a possibility).

Houston 45, Indianapolis 13

Confidence Score = 13

Eagles (-4.5) over RAMS

            St. Louis will keep it fairly close, but the Eagles have too many weapons.

Philadelphia 24, St. Louis 14
Confidence Score = 8

BROWNS (-6.5) over Bengals

            There are no circumstances that I will pick Cincinnati on the road, unless they are getting more than 14 points.

Cleveland 21, Cincinnati 6

Confidence Score = 14

Titans (+2) over JAGUARS

            So I can bet against a team that just cut it’s starting quarterback six days before their first game? And I’m getting two points? Where do I sign?

Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 3

Confidence Score = 15

Giants (-3) over REDSKINS

            I don’t think FOX could’ve ended up with a worse game as their national telecast than this one. Couldn’t we have flipped this one with the Eagles-Rams game?

New York 17, Washington 10
Confidence Score = 9

CARDINALS (-7) over Panthers

            If Carolina hits double-digits in this game, that will be an accomplishment. It will be a while before Cam Newton will be able to guide an efficient offense.

Arizona 17, Carolina 0

Confidence Score = 12

49ERS (-5.5) over Seahawks

            It’s hard to believe that a team quarterbacked by Alex Smith would be 5.5-point favorites, but when you take into account the opponent will be captained by Tavaris Jackson, it’s understandable.

San Francisco 20, Seattle 7

Confidence Score = 11

Vikings (+8.5) over CHARGERS
            I’m not crazy about Minnesota, but San Diego has a tendency of scuffling during the month of September. They’ll pull the game out, but it will be closer than the experts think.

San Diego 20, Minnesota 17

Confidence Score = 6

Cowboys (+5) over JETS

            Call me a homer, but 5 points just feels too high. Expect a low scoring affair in the Meadowlands.

New York 14, Dallas 10
Confidence Score = 2

Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS

            No Credentials isn’t banking on a banner day from Tom Brady, but does feel confident that Chad Henne will serve up something that resembles a crap sandwich.

New England 27, Miami 10

Confidence Score = 10

BRONCOS (-3) over Raiders

            We’ll find out if my prediction that Oakland will be a terrible team is correct after this game.

Denver 27, Oakland 17

Confidence Score = 5