This game
will be decided by three points or less. I guess we’ll take the point.
VIKINGS (-2.5) over Chargers
Adrian
Peterson looked pretty good last week. We expect him to go Supernova against
San Diego.
Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS
I
can’t wrap my head around the fact that a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallett is
favored to win by a touchdown.
JETS (-2) over Eagles
The
Jets are going to blitz the living hell out of Sam Bradford.
PANTHERS (-8) over Saints
New
Orleans is a car fire. Carolina might only score ten points and still cover the
spread.
PATRIOTS (-14) over Jaguars
I
let myself down by not backing the Jaguars for one more game last week (they
should’ve covered in Week 1 if not for an awful pick-6 by Blake Bortles). There’s
back-door cover potential here, but we’re still picking the Patriots.
RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals
It’s
disheartening for No Credentials that our pick to represent the AFC in the
Super Bowl this year is playing a must-win game in Week 3.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Raiders
Last
week’s Steelers-49ers game was further proof of the peril west coast teams face
when they play 1 p.m. east coast games. That’s why this line is at least a
point higher than you think it should be, and why the Browns will still cover.
Colts (-3.5) over TITANS
We’re
guessing an AFC South opponent is just what the Colts need to right the ship.
COWBOYS (+1.5) over Falcons
Atlanta’s
lack of a pass rush combined with the Cowboys’ elite offensive line means
Brandon Weeden should have ample time to “beautifully” throw the football
(Jerry Jones’ words, not mine).
49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
We
may have under estimated Arizona (can someone ask Carson Palmer to pee in a cup
already?), but Niners-Cardinals games historically have been close affairs.
SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears
The line
would have to be over three touchdowns for me to even consider taking Chicago.
DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Bills
Buffalo
shouldn’t be favored by half a point over the Dolphins on a neutral field. I’ll
gladly accept the half-point discount here.
Broncos (-3.5) over LIONS
We
have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning, but that shouldn’t matter Sunday
night against a Lions team that looks ready to implode.
PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs
It’s
been ten days, and I feel like that has allowed the general public to forget
how demoralizing Kansas City’s loss at home to Denver was. Now tasked with
playing at Lambeau Field, we don’t like their chances Monday night.
Week 2 = 8-8
Thursday = 1-0 (second straight bullshit cover on
Thursday Night Football)
Season = 17-15-1
Spread Picks By Team
In our new
weekly installment, I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For
example, I picked the Saints to cover against the Buccaneers. They didn’t, so I
lost. Conversely, I picked the Cowboys to cover on the road at Philly. That did
happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.
Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).
Packers (-7) over BEARS
It’s the
largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday
night), and we forecast a rout.
Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS
J.J.
Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s
getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer
mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.
JETS (-3.5) over Browns
Ryan
Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his
tombstone.
Colts (-3) over BILLS
Buffalo
is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod
Taylor.
Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS
Kirk
Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A
scary Miami defensive line will expose him.
JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers
Jacksonville
is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers
squad.
RAMS (+4) over Seahawks
St.
Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so
it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by
a field goal.
Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS
The sky is
falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.
CHARGERS (-3) over Lions
Of
all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally
I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim
Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.
BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans
If
we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and
second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately,
the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus
Mariotta is stuck with.
RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals
Oakland
signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is
insane.
Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS
We
have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.
COWBOYS (-6) over Giants
Go
ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over
and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys
actually won that game.
FALCONS (+3) over Eagles
Holy
over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet
for highest scoring game of the weekend.
49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings
All
of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have
endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of
the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is
returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field
goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a
wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener.
Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)
We took the week off last week (the Cowboys did have a bye week after
all), but we’re back with a sentence or two about every NFL game this weekend.
Browns @ Falcons
We
here at No Credentials are overjoyed that avid pot smoker Josh Gordon is back
on the field. Fans of the blog (all six of you) will remember us waxing poetic
about him a year ago when he was carrying three of my fantasy teams to glory.
Fearless Gordon forecast against the shitty Falcons = 6
receptions, 126 yards, 2 touchdowns
Titans @ Eagles
A
valuable lesson was learned by the masses last week…don’t trust Mark Sanchez
two straight weeks to lead your fantasy football team. The Titans are crappy
enough that LeSean McCoy should limit the amount of impact the Sanchize has
this week.
Lions @ Patriots
Friend
of the blog Ethan Hedrick will be at Gillette Stadium for this one. That has no
relevance to anything, but I thought I would note it.
Packers @ Vikings
Green
Bay needs to thank their lucky stars that Packer destroyer Adrian Peterson had
his suspension extended, although it’s hard to imagine that the Vikings
would’ve been galvanized by A.P.’s return. In other words, we don’t know if Peterson’s
absence will help or hurt the Vikings.
Jaguars @ Colts
The
over/under for this one is 50.5. Indianapolis might cover that by themselves.
Bengals @ Texans
Houston
kicked Andy Dalton’s ass two years in a row in the playoffs, and the Texans actually
looked decent last week with Ryan Mallet under center.
Buccaneers @ Bears
Under
normal circumstances this game would only have an impact on the order at the
top of the 2015 NFL Draft, but the NFC South is so terrible the Bucs still
could run the table and make the playoffs.
Cardinals @ Seahawks
At some
point Seattle has to wake up and kick someone’s ass.
Rams @ Chargers
Once upon a
time San Diego actually looked like a legitimate threat to make a run to the
Super Bowl. Now they can’t block, have no runningbacks, and their defense is
garbage. Better luck next year.
Dolphins @ Broncos
Losing two
of your top three receiving threats within one quarter is never a good thing,
so we’re pinning last week’s pitiful effort in St. Louis on that. We expect
Denver to right the ship this week.
Washington @ 49ers
Sadly, this
one might have to be renamed “The Over-rated Mobile Quarterbacks Bowl”.
GIANTS (+4) over Cowboys
With a huge
game coming up on Thanksgiving against the Eagles, don’t be shocked to see the
Cowboys looking a little unfocused for three quarters of this game. If they do
win, it will be by no more than three points.
Jets vs. Bills
One has to
pity the poor Bills, who after ceding a home game to Toronto for several years,
now have to play a home date in Detroit because of The Snowpocalypse.
Ravens @ Saints
I’m cheering for the Saints only because I
don’t want to see a 6-10 team win the NFC South.
A race billed as a last chance, no holds barred attempt
to make the playoffs turned into a snooze-fest thanks to a dominant run by the 2012 champion.
8.Home Loss For Ohio State Caps Miserable Day For Big 10 Following Michigan
getting shut out at Notre Dame and Michigan State surrendering 28 unanswered
points at Oregon, the Buckeyes looking mediocre at home was the
last thing the conference needed.
7. Miami
Dominates New England After Halftime, Wins 33-20
After missing the end of the 2013 season due to a
steroid suspension, Cruz used the extra time off to figure out new ways to
use performance-enhancing drugs without getting caughthow to naturally improve at his craft.
5. Andrew Luck Leads Improbable Back Door Cover Against
Broncos
Indianapolis should’ve been a lot closer in this
game, as they left at least 11 points on the table in the
second half. There is a chance that they are better than we think.
4. Cincinnati Weathers Late Push From Ravens, Wins 23-16
Steve Smith hit the way-back button with his go
ahead touchdown, but then was quickly one-upped by superstar A.J. Green.
This was a huge win for the Bengals, as it should silence some critics of The
Red Rifle.
3. Steelers Nearly Implode, Survive Late Scare Against
Cleveland
2. Buffalo Bills Pull Off a Shocking Overtime Win in
Chicago
There’s always one game a year in our Week 1 picks
column that we don’t follow our preseason predictions closely enough and end up
missing. At least it only happened once this year.
We’re back with another year of shoddy football picks. No Credentials
nailed Week 1 (visit our Facebook page for proof, and while your there do me a
solid and like the page), so perhaps we’re in for a banner gambling year.
Saints (-3.5) over FALCONS
Assuming the Saints are one of the three best teams in the NFC, we think we are getting a 3-point discount on this line.
Vikings (+3.5) over RAMS
In
Week 1 battles of teams likely to end up in the top 10 of next year’s draft, we’ll
take the points.
Our
first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should
just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is
under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s
schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories
from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady
isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone
Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).
4. New York Jets
2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed
Playoffs 2014 Schedule =Raiders, @ Packers, Bears,
Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @
Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins
Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT
Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy
Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville),
TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)
Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will
take a snap under center.
Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?
Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the
worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly
a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst
point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson
has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric
Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone
Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East,
the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to
cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the
secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after
looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor
to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a
viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from
Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets
into playoff contention.
Prediction = We’re guessing the defense
will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New
York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it
should’ve been last year. 5-11
3. Miami Dolphins
2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs 2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders
(London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @
Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets
Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake
High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy
Starks, CB Brent Grimes Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon
Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay,
DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee),
WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)
Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb
plays.
Bad News =Junior bully Mike Pouncey will
miss at least the first half of the season.
Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any
team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever
pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control
their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only
managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble
to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous
for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL
Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge.
There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed
thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but
needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike
Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was
sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon
Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick
Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve
seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis
Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the
running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively,
Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance.
Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the
league.
Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has
another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be
average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9
2. Buffalo Bills
2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs 2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @
Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets,
Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots
Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams
High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell
Dareus Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson,
DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T
Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)
Good News = They will return their entire
pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.
Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.
Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings
of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to
try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them.
Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year
quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries
forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed
to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the
draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick
to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing
talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the
Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the
quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star
middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their
defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot
Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.
Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps
Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick
they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7
1. New England Patriots
2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC
Championship Game 2014 Schedule =@ Dolphins, @ Vikings,
Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions,
@ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills
Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis,
FS Devin McCourty
High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder,
RT Sebastian Vollmer Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny
Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince
Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern
Illinois)
Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already
been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while)
Week 1.
Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest
quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide
receiver core.
Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s
fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent
in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering
their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult
them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made
riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When
Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots
could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC
West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a
masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at
defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high
quality status by the end of the season.
Offensively
New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re
still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last
year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a
Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a
number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski
can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard
to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d
consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of
the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling
the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also
proven capable at times.
Prediction = Dobson
takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating
over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots
will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3
AFC #7 Miami Dolphins @ AFC #12 Buffalo Bills There’s too
much on the line for Miami to blow a game against a team quarterbacked by Thad
Lewis.
Dolphins (-3) over BILLS
NFC #5 Carolina Panthers @ NFC #2 New Orleans Saints
The
dramatic difference between that Saints’ play on the road versus their
performance at home is too big to ignore. Despite beating Carolina by three
scores just two weeks ago, we think Carolina takes control of the NFC South.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Saints
NFC #10 Dallas Cowboys @ NFC #16 Washington Redskins
It’s
fate that Dallas enters the last week with a season with a chance to either win
the NFC East or finish 8-8, so it only makes sense that they beat up a hapless
Redskins squad.
Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS
NFC #15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NFC #11 St. Louis Rams
In
terms of games between bad teams, this is about as good as it gets. We’ll see
if the Rams are too pleased with themselves after dominating the Saints last
week.
RAMS (-4.5) over Buccaneers
AFC #15 Cleveland Browns @ AFC #10 New York Jets
New
York is well on its way to clinching the title of “worst 7-9 NFL team in the
history of man”.
JETS (-2) over Browns
AFC #5 Kansas City Chiefs @ AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts
Kansas
City still has a shot at the #1 seed if they win out, and Indianapolis has
virtually nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding.
CHIEFS (-7) over Colts
NFC #13 Minnesota Vikings @ AFC #3 Cincinnati Bengals
Andy
Dalton and company squandered a chance to grab the #2 spot last week, but
if they take care of business and Baltimore does the same against New England,
they could get redemption this week.
BENGALS (-8) over Vikings
AFC #1 Denver Broncos @ AFC #16 Houston Texans
Houston
gave New England a game effort a few weeks ago, and Denver looked ordinary
without Wes Welker on the field against the Chargers.
TEXANS (+10.5) over Broncos
AFC #11 Tennessee Titans @ AFC #14 Jacksonville Jaguars
Probably
the least appealing game on the weekend slate, although if your desperate for
runningback help in fantasy, Jacksonville’s Jordan Todman is a good place to
start.
It
would make some sense for Seattle, who virtually has the top seed in the
conference locked up, to throw this game to put pressure on division rival San
Francisco. Just saying.
Cardinals (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS
NFC #12 New York Giants @ NFC #9 Detroit Lions
Other
than Dallas, no team is more desperate for a coaching change than the Detroit
Lions. Jon Gruden could have Detroit playing in the conference championship
game.
Giants (+9.5) over LIONS
AFC #13 Oakland Raiders @ AFC #8 San Diego Chargers
If
Miami beats Buffalo, San Diego will already be eliminated from playoff
contention before their game kicks off.
Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS
AFC #9 Pittsburgh Steelers @ NFC #8 Green Bay Packers
Matt
Flynn keeps Green Bay alive, setting up a NFC North showdown against the Bears
in Week 17.
PACKERS (-2.5) over Steelers
AFC #2 New England Patriots @ AFC #6 Baltimore Ravens
Justin
Tucker had the pleasure of putting one of No Credential’s fantasy teams into a
championship game last Monday (we won by two, thanks
to this), and I think it’s fitting that Baltimore is only
favored by two in this game. Tucker boots a field goal to win the game.
RAVENS (-2) over Patriots
NFC #6 Chicago Bears @ NFC #5 Philadelphia Eagles
One
of the stranger Sunday night games you’ll ever see for gambling purposes, as
depending on how the day games shake out, there’s a good chance neither team
will really need to win the game.
Bears (+3) over EAGLES
NFC #14 Atlanta Falcons @ NFC #6 San Francisco 49ers
San
Francisco can sow up a playoff spot with a win over the hapless Falcons. 49ERS (-13) over Falcons Last Week = 5-10-1 Season = 109-106-9
7. Redskins Go For Two, Lose The result wasn’t
there, but in a vacuum the decision to go for two after a long touchdown drive
isn’t a terrible one. Kudos to the Redskins for making a bold choice in the middle of a disastrous season.
6. North Carolina Defends Home Court Against Kentucky
5. Jameis Winston Takes Home the Heisman Trophy I’m a little
surprised that Winston dominated the field so much in spite of his rape charge that was dropped,
but there really wasn’t another viable candidate.
3-10 Washington Redskins @ 3-10 Atlanta Falcons (-7) There are
very few football teams on Earth that the Falcons should be favored by a touchdown
against. Washington is one of them.
FALCONS (-7) over Redskins
9-4 San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming
off their hard fought division win over Seattle, San Francisco will have a hard
time winning by more than a field goal in Tampa.
BUCCANEERS (+6) over 49ers
11-2 Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ 5-8 New York Giants
Playing
a pissed off Seaderrall Seahawks team is not an ideal scenario for the sorry
Giants.
Seahawks (-7) over GIANTS
7-6 Chicago Bears (-1) @ 4-9 Cleveland Browns Jay
Cutler’s play will have nothing to do with the Browns winning on Sunday, but
that’s what everyone will be talking about Monday.
BROWNS (+1) over Bears
2-11 Houston Texans @ 8-5 Indianapolis Colts (-6)
Indianapolis
isn’t setting the world on fire, but Houston has no incentive to win, and Coach
Wade is heavily involved.
I
wish I could wait on making this pick until after the Patriots game, because if
the Pats lose, Cincinnati would be able to put itself in position for the #2
seed in the AFC.
Bengals (-2.5) over STEELERS
7-6 Baltimore Ravens @ 7-6 Detroit Lions (-6)
Not
comfortable laying six points on the back of Jim Schwarz in a coaching battle
against John Harbaugh.
Our third
annual NFL division preview series begins with the division nearest and dearest
to the hearts of the majority of my readers (all five of them).
Franchise Players = LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick
Mangold, CB Antonio Cromartie
Supporting Cast = RB Chris Ivory, WR Santonio Holmes, DE
Muhammad Wilkerson, MLB David Harris Notable Rookies = CB Dee Milliner (Alabama, 1-9), DT
Sheldon Richardson (Missouri, 1-13), QB Geno Smith (West Virginia, 2-39)
Offensive Outlook = Much like Kevin James, the Mark
Sanchez-Rex Ryan duo has been around way too long. Fortunately for Jets fans, Geno Smith appears to have the inside track
on the quarterback gig. I don’t expect either quarterback to set the world on
fire, but at least Smith would offer a glimmer of hope for the future. Neither
quarterback will have the benefit of an average receiving core, with only
Stephen Hill offering the upside of a #1 receiver. Santonio Holmes is coming
off major foot surgery, so to expect a return to peak performance from him is
asking a lot. Chris Ivory has finally been released from the “five-back-pileup”
system in New Orleans, and will get the chance to shoulder a full-time
workload. The offensive line is still solid, so barring injury (which was a
common occurrence during Ivory’s time with the Saints), we could be looking at
1,200 yards and eight to ten touchdowns.
Defensive Outlook = Typically, it’s not a good thing
for a defense when they trade away the most dominant cornerback in the NFL, but
the Jets did make the best long term decision when they shipped Darrelle Revis
to Tampa Bay. It would make no sense to pay Revis big-time money on a
rebuilding team, and their first two draft picks are fantastic building blocks.
There’s enough defensive talent for New York to steal some ugly 14-10 type
games. Ceiling = 9-7 - This would take an epic debut season
by Ivory, and a defensive effort reminiscent of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.
We’ll give this a 1% chance of happening. Floor = 2-14 - You know who the quarterbacks are right? We'll give this a 30% chance of happening. Prediction = 5-11 I like the
moves they made to begin rejuvenating the defense, but it will be another year
before they can blow up the offense.
Franchise Players = RB C.J. Spiller, DE Mario Williams,
DT Kyle Williams, DT Marcell Dareus, FS Jairus Byrd
Supporting Cast = WR Stevie Johnson, C Eric Wood, CB/KR
Leodis McKelvin Notable Rookies = QB E.J. Manuel (Florida State, 1-16),
WR Robert Woods (USC, 2-41), MLB Kiko Alonso (Oregon, 2-46)
Offensive Outlook = After years of not fully
understanding the talent they possessed, C.J. Spiller will finally get the keys
to a full-time featured back role. He only needed 207 carries to crack the
1,200-yard barrier, so a workload closer to 300 should raise his production to
an elite level. It’s concerning that standout guard Andy Levitre left for
Tennessee, but Spiller has enough ability to overcome it. Stevie Johnson is a
solid but unspectacular wide receiver whose production will be directly tied to
his quarterback. Kevin Kolb isn’t the second coming of Jim Kelly (or for that matter,
Doug Flutie), but the offense will function better with him under center than
rookie E.J. Manuel. Ideally, Buffalo’s surprise first round pick spends a year
watching from the sidelines, but if Kolb keeps tripping on rubber mats, Manuel
will be forced to the field from the get go.
Defensive Outlook = For a unit that features four
blue-chip players, this defense was dreadful last season. However, they only
surrendered more than 24 points once during the final seven weeks of the
season. A large part of that late season improvement can be attributed to Mario
Williams, who played much better as a wrist injury healed during the season.
Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus form the most talented DT-duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL
LEAGUE. The middle layer of the defense was a major weakness, as Buffalo’s
linebackers were unable to take advantage of the defensive line’s efforts. If
Kiko Alonso can keep his head on straight, he presents the Bills best chance to
raise its defense to a top-12 level.
Ceiling = 11-5 – Double digit wins sounds like a
stretch (mostly because it is), but when you look at the slate of road games,
none of them jumps out as un-winnable (even their Week 17 game at New England.
The Patriots could be resting for the playoffs at that point).
Floor = 2-14 – We’ll call this “the too much E.J.
Manuel” scenario. Prediction = 6-10 Until
Buffalo generates stable production from the quarterback position, I’m not
endorsing them for a .500 season.
Franchise Players = WR Mike Wallace, C Mike Pouncey, DE
Cameron Wake, DT Randy Starks
Supporting Cast = QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Lamar Miller, WR
Brian Hartline, LG Richie Incognito, RT Tyson Clabo, DT Paul Soliai, MLB
Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes, SS Reshad Jones, KR Marcus Thigpen Notable Rookies = OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon, 1-3), CB Jamar
Taylor (Boise State, 2-54, RB Mike Gillislee (Florida, 5-164)
Offensive Outlook = It’s early in our
preview series, but we will be hard pressed to find a team who’s fate is more
tied to the production of one player than the Miami Dolphins. All of the pieces
are here for Miami to leapfrog New England in the AFC East, but they need development
from Ryan Tannehill in order to do it. He has an elite deep threat in the form
of Mike Williams (who despite the fact that he’s grossly overpaid, he will
still have to be accounted for by opposing defenses on every snap), a solid
possession receiver with Brian Hartline, and a decent upgrade at tight end
with Dustin Keller. Lamar Miller appears poised to seize the starting role, and
could be in line for a breakout season. The loss of Jake Long is worrisome
(it’s generally not a good thing to lose a franchise left tackle), but Miami
patched the line effectively enough with the addition of former Falcon Tyson
Clabo. If Tannehill produces at even just a Joe Flacco like level (regular
season Flacco, not postseason), the Dolphins will make the playoffs.
Defensive Outlook = In today’s NFL, rushing the
passer is key, and few clubs do it better than the Miami Dolphins. Cameron Wake
generated a career high 15 sacks, and the addition of rookie Dion Jordan gives
Miami the chance to have two elite edge rushers. Dannell Ellerbe is huge
upgrade at middle linebacker, and he’ll provide a lift to a defense that
didn’t always take advantage of the efforts of their defensive tackles. Brent
Grimes isn’t the second coming of Rod Woodson (pre-safety years for you kids
that don’t remember him on the Steelers), but assuming he’s healthy after early
ACL surgery last year, he’s an upgrade.
Ceiling = 13-3 – If this happens, Ryan Tannehill will
be the most valuable waiver wire pickup in fantasy football.
Floor = 5-11 – If this happens, Miami will be looking
for a new quarterback in 2014. Prediction = 9-7 The
schedule breaks really well for the Dolphins (catching a down AFC North is the
only reason I have Miami above .500), and assuming Tannehill isn’t abysmal,
there’s enough talent on defense to carry Miami to wildcard contention.
1. New England Patriots
2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC East, lost AFC
Championship Game to Ravens
Offensive Outlook = When your offense is built around
one tight end who is a likely PUP list member and another who’s in jail because
he’s involved with multiple murders, that’s a problem. Fortunately for New
England, the cupboard isn’t bare. They still have Tom Brady (and quite frankly,
that’s all you need), and the best offensive line the Patriots have ever had in
the Belichick era protects him. If Stevan Ridley can correct a recurring case
of fumbleitis, he’ll have an outside shot at 1,600 yards. Shane Vereen is also
a talented back who is an asset in the passing game. Receivers are where the
question marks begin. Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant red zone target in
the game, but how many games he suits up for is what will determine his impact.
Ultimately, the Patriots should only need a healthy Gronkowski for the
playoffs. Danny Amendola has all of the physical tools to fill Wes Welker’s
role, but his total number of games missed isn’t inspiring either. Aaron Dobson
is the biggest lottery ticket on the Patriots roster. If he can grasp the
playbook, he’ll be the most dominant wide receiver in the AFC East.
Defensive Outlook = It might not be as stout as the
2003 edition, but this year’s defense is the best one Belichick has had since
there second Super Bowl winning year. They might have the deepest linebacking
core in the AFC, and the edition of Tommy Kelly to play alongside Vince Wilfork
will only their run defense. Aqib Talib stabilized the secondary immediately
upon arriving in New England via a midseason trade, and one could safely bet on
him being even better after a full Patriots training camp. New England is a
dominant pass rusher away (I’m looking at you Chandler Jones) from fielding a
top-5 defense.
Ceiling = 14-2 – This scenario will need a healthy
Gronkowski, a rookie of the year campaign from Dobson, and a 12-sack season
from Jones.
Floor = 8-8 – Only will occur if the offense can’t
find its way and the Dolphins and Bills play to their potential. Prediction = 11-5 There’s been a ton of gloom and doom surrounding the
Patriots (understandably so. Not even the mid-90s Dallas Cowboys ever dealt
with a distraction like the Pats are faced with this off-season), but it’s
important to take a step back and look at the larger landscape. As you probably
could tell by looking at the other three teams in this preview, there’s a fair
chance the Patriots will be the only good team in the division. As you will see
in the next three AFC division previews, there’s a high probability that most
of the conference stinks too. There’s only one team in the AFC I’d rate ahead
of the Patriots. They might not be pretty at times (especially early in the
season), but I expect New England to end up with a first round bye when it’s
all said and done.
