2015 Week 3 NFL Picks

RAMS (+1) over Steelers

            This game will be decided by three points or less. I guess we’ll take the point.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Chargers

            Adrian Peterson looked pretty good last week. We expect him to go Supernova against San Diego.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS

            I can’t wrap my head around the fact that a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallett is favored to win by a touchdown.

JETS (-2) over Eagles

            The Jets are going to blitz the living hell out of Sam Bradford.

PANTHERS (-8) over Saints

            New Orleans is a car fire. Carolina might only score ten points and still cover the spread.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Jaguars

            I let myself down by not backing the Jaguars for one more game last week (they should’ve covered in Week 1 if not for an awful pick-6 by Blake Bortles). There’s back-door cover potential here, but we’re still picking the Patriots.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals

            It’s disheartening for No Credentials that our pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year is playing a must-win game in Week 3.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Raiders

            Last week’s Steelers-49ers game was further proof of the peril west coast teams face when they play 1 p.m. east coast games. That’s why this line is at least a point higher than you think it should be, and why the Browns will still cover.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS

            We’re guessing an AFC South opponent is just what the Colts need to right the ship.

COWBOYS (+1.5) over Falcons

            Atlanta’s lack of a pass rush combined with the Cowboys’ elite offensive line means Brandon Weeden should have ample time to “beautifully” throw the football (Jerry Jones’ words, not mine).

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS

            We may have under estimated Arizona (can someone ask Carson Palmer to pee in a cup already?), but Niners-Cardinals games historically have been close affairs.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears

            The line would have to be over three touchdowns for me to even consider taking Chicago.

DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Bills

            Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by half a point over the Dolphins on a neutral field. I’ll gladly accept the half-point discount here. 

Broncos (-3.5) over LIONS

            We have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning, but that shouldn’t matter Sunday night against a Lions team that looks ready to implode.

PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs

            It’s been ten days, and I feel like that has allowed the general public to forget how demoralizing Kansas City’s loss at home to Denver was. Now tasked with playing at Lambeau Field, we don’t like their chances Monday night.

 

Week 2 = 8-8

Thursday = 1-0 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Season = 17-15-1

Spread Picks By Team

            In our new weekly installment, I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Saints to cover against the Buccaneers. They didn’t, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Cowboys to cover on the road at Philly. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Redskins = 3-0

Browns = 2-0

Eagles = 2-0

Packers = 2-0

Vikings = 2-0

Lions = 2-0

Falcons = 2-0

Seahawks = 2-0

Rams = 2-0

49ers = 2-0

Patriots = 1-0-1

Steelers = 1-0-1

Giants = 2-1

Bills = 1-1

Titans = 1-1

Cowboys = 1-1

Dolphins = 1-1

Jets = 1-1

Texans = 1-1

Chiefs = 1-1

Chargers = 1-1

Bears = 1-1

Ravens = 0-2

Bengals = 0-2

Colts = 0-2

Jaguars = 0-2

Raiders = 0-2

Saints = 0-2

Buccaneers = 0-2

Panthers = 0-2

Cardinals = 0-2

Broncos = 0-2

2014 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers

2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @ Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE, @ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis
Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Kawann Short
Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)

Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in the league.

Bad News = Who is Cam Newton going to throw too again?

Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order. Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions, he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened offensive line, which will hinder their running game.

            Carolina’s front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make too many plays in deep coverage.
Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10

3. Atlanta Falcons

2013 Record = 4-12, Third in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Saints, @ Bengals, Buccaneers, @ Vikings, @ Giants, Bears, @ Ravens, Lions, BYE, @ Buccaneers, @ Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, @ Packers, Steelers, @ Saints, Panthers

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah, DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant
Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)

Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.

Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.

Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

            Atlanta didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage.
Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Panthers, Rams, @ Falcons, @ Steelers, @ Saints, Ravens, BYE, Vikings, @ Browns, Falcons, @ Redskins, @ Bears, Bengals, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Packers, Saints

Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David

High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson
Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner
Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington

Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.

Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire confidence for a surprising playoff run.

Outlook = Offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment to Vincent Jackson.

            Even without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2” defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system.
Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8

1. New Orleans Saints

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Falcons, @ Browns, Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions, Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears, Falcons, @ Buccaneers

Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, FS Jairus Byrd

High Quality Players = HB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis
Solid Contributors = LG Jahri Evans, RG Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro
Impact Rookies = WR Brandin Cooks (1-20, Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)

Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.

Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.

Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense. Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate their sack totals from a year ago.

            For the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle. A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract situation was resolved before training camp.   
Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule, New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field throughout the playoffs. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Week 5 NFL Picks

            My picks were dreadful last week, so as I’ve done in years past after a rough week, I’m keeping the analysis short. Also, I got out of work last night at 10:30pm and then went back for 7:30am, so it’s in everyone’s best interests to keep words to a minimum.

Week 5 Byes = 1-3 Minnesota Vikings, 1-3 Washington Redskins, 0-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, 0-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (this might be the greatest bye week ever. Four awful teams removed from the weekly slate)

 

TITANS (+3) over Chiefs

            Ryan Fitzpatrick should be serviceable for a couple of games, but hopefully Jake Locker is back closer to four weeks than eight.

DOLPHINS (-3) over Ravens

            Getting shellacked in New Orleans is nothing to hang your head about these days.

RAMS (-11.5) over Jaguars

            I just bought Madden 25, and created my son as the new quarterback of the Jaguars, so in the virtual world things are looking up for Jacksonville. Except for the part where I’m moving the team to Los Angeles in 2014.

BENGALS (+2) over Patriots

            Atlanta didn’t have the running game to expose the Wilfork-less Patriots. It becomes an issue this week.

Seahawks (-3) over COLTS

            Andrew Luck is a year or two away from being capable of winning this game by himself.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Lions

            Fresh off a bye, Green Bay is ready to put a damper on the Detroit bandwagon.

BEARS (+1.5) over Saints

            Most of Chicago’s trouble last week had to do with Detroit having inside knowledge of their defensive signals (nice job changing that shit up coaches that are paid a lot of money). They will look better this week.

GIANTS (-1.5) over Eagles

            New York has to win eventually. The over/under should be 60.

Panthers (-2.5) over CARDINALS

            Carolina’s defense has the talent to completely shut down the Arizona offense.

COWBOYS (+9) over Broncos

            Dallas has always done well against Peyton Manning (a win against the undefeated 2006 Colts in Tony Romo’s third career start was particularly memorable), so I’m wearing the homer hat for this one.

Texans (+6) over 49ERS

            San Francisco is still missing the majority of their receiving core, and Houston’s defense is more than talented enough to keep this within a field goal.

Chargers (-5) over RAIDERS

            It was great idea to give Raiders fans an extra three hours to consume more alcohol before an 11:35pm kickoff. Actually, it was the exact opposite of that.

FALCONS (-10) over Jets

            It just feels like a game the Falcons need to wake up and win. If they flounder here, stick a fork in them.
 

Ethan’s Picks

Chiefs - this is the first time I am betting against the Titans this year, but I need to turn things around.

Ravens

Jaguars - if this was under 10 points I would take St. Louis.

Patriots - their WRs are starting to show up and I like the direction the defense is going.

Seahawks - the colts have been on fire but Seattle’s D is the best in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

Lions - I like the Lions to outright win this game.

Saints - they will blitz the daylights out of Cutler, Cutler folds.

Giants - this will be the sloppiest game of the year, 7 combine TOs.

Panthers

Cowboys - I think they will cover, Broncos win by a TD.

Texans

Chargers

Falcons

 

No Credentials Last Week = 6-9

Ethan Last Week = 8-7
No Credentials Season = 31-30-2
Ethan’s Record = 34-27-2
Our Thursday Pick = 1-0 (we’ve both hit four Thursdays in a row, we’re money at picking mediocre, sloppy football games between teams that only had three days off)

Week 1 NFL Picks

            Last year, Week 1 destroyed No Credentials. A 3-13 stink bomb set us behind the eight ball early. This year, we’re not off to a good start (although I stand behind my opening night pick. Wasn’t my fault one of Baltimore’s two competent receivers was run into by his own guy on a punt, or that Peyton Manning went bonkers. Nevermind, it was my fault. You never bet against Peyton Manning at night), but the rest of the Week 1 will be better. Why? Well…I don’t know.
            As a special treat for No Credentials readers (all six of you), we invited friend of the blog Ethan Hedrick to also make picks every week (EDITORS NOTE: Actually, he invited himself, but I figured it wasn’t a bad idea. Instead of one person posting bad picks, why not two?). His picks will be listed below mine. He claims to have picked Denver in his office pool, so we’ll spot him a 1-0 lead.
            Without further ado, the rest of my shitty Week 1 picks.
 

New England Patriots (-10.5) @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 51
            New England ran for approximately 1,253 yards in the two games they played against Buffalo last year. Throw in a few E.J. Manuel turnovers and this one will be a runaway.

Patriots (-10.5) over BILLS
 

Tennessee Titans (+7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            I wrote in the preseason how I had a good feeling about Tennessee’s improved offensive line. Throw in a retooling Steelers team, and we’re signing off on this game staying within a touchdown.

Titans (+7) over STEELERS

 

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 56
            New Orleans was a team I never picked correctly last season, and I expect this year to be no different. On paper, the Falcons offense shreds the Saints.

Falcons (+3) over SAINTS

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 39.5
            A line that feels at least two points too low, but your getting a Josh Freeman discount.

Buccaneers (-4.5) over JETS

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42
            The obvious rebound team faces one of the obvious worst teams in the league. The longer Blaine Gabbert is involved, the longer Jacksonville should be wagered against any time you’re getting less than a touchdown.

Chiefs (-4.5) over JAGUARS

 

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Chicago Bears

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            One of the more difficult match ups to predict, we’ll bet on home field advantage as our tiebreaker.

BEARS (-3) over Bengals

Miami Dolphins (+1.5) @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 41
            Here’s your under bet of the week, for those of you who love cheering against points.

Dolphins (+1.5) over BROWNS

 

Seattle Seahawks (-4) @ Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45
            Your “No Credentials Upset of the Week That is Destined to Fail”, sponsored by Microsoft.

PANTHERS (+4) over Seahawks

 

Minnesota Vikings (+6) @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 47
            I’m not sold on the Vikings, but any team coached by Jim Schwartz doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than three points.

Vikings (+6) over LIONS

 

Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Oakland is atrocious. Absolutely atrocious.

COLTS (-10.5) over Raiders

 

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) @ St. Louis Rams

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41.5
            Carson Palmer will put up some stats, but he will also get sacked seven times.

RAMS (-4.5) over Cardinals

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 49
            San Francisco isn’t a good place to show up and play when you have a banged up offensive line.

49ERS (-5.5) over Packers

 

New York Giants (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 50
            Eli Manning is undefeated in Jerry-World, but the run has to end eventually. Dallas has more talent, and fortunately no one is injured yet.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Giants

 

Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) @ Washington Redskins

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 52.5
            I don’t feel great either way about this game, but even if Kirk Cousins gets involved at some point, the Eagles defense is bad enough for Washington to cover.

REDSKINS (-4.5) over Eagles

Houston Texans (-5.5) @ San Diego Chargers

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 45
            Weird stuff usually happens in the second Monday night game during Week 1, but normally the game doesn’t feature a contending team. Houston has it’s flaws, but the defense is stout enough to hold the Chargers in check.

Texans (-5.5) over CHARGERS

Ethan’s Picks

Bill’s cover, combined rushing attempts 100.

Tennessee, and they win because Pittsburgh’s O-line sucks.
New Orleans, they are like 11-2 against the dirty birds.
Tampa Bay, Jets are already fighting Oakland for #1 pick.
KC, Blaine Gabbert is pretty fun to watch.
Bengals, Cutler is too much of a gunslinger for a west coast offense.
Browns, in Weeden I trust.
Seattle, by 20.
Adrian Peterson, I refuse to call them the Vikings (to cover).
Oakland barely covers because they have to ensure a loss to keep pace with the Jets.
St. Louis, but who cares in that division.
San Fran, by 2 TDs
NYG, Dallas has yet to prove they can beat these guys in their own stadium.  Lose by a TD.
Philly, RGIII is exposed quickly
Houston, J.J. Watt kills someone.
 

Thursday Pick = 0-1

Ethan’s Thursday Pick = 1-0

2013 NFC South Preview

            Our fourth division preview brings us to the NFC South, which is full of team's who will have inflated win totals thanks to playing the putrid AFC East.

 

4. Carolina Panthers

 

2012 Record = 7-9, third in NFC South

2013 Schedule = Seahawks, @ Bills, Giants, BYE, @ Cardinals, @ Vikings, Rams, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ 49ers, Patriots, @ Dolphins, Buccaneers, @ Saints, Jets, Saints, @ Falcons

Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, MLB Luke Kuechly

Supporting Cast = RB Johnathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo Williams, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen, LT Jordan Gross, C Ryan Kalil, DE Greg Hardy, DE Charles Johnson, OLB Jon Beason
Notable Rookies = DT Star Lotulelei (Utah, 1-14), DT Kawann Short (Purdue, 2-44), RB Kenjon Barner (Oregon, 6-182)

Offensive Outlook = Carolina brings back virtually the same offense it has had for the past two seasons. Cam Newton started out slow last season, but caught fire in the second half to post numbers similar to his rookie season. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are arguably the most talented running back duo in the league, but often were forgotten assets. Getting these guys a combined 30 carries a game would go a long way in balancing the offense. Steve Smith is still the only credible wide receiver Carolina has to offer (where oh where is Muhsin Muhammad?), but at least the Panthers have a solid tight end. Greg Olsen had the most productive year a tight end has ever had for the Panthers (somehow Wesley Walls never cracked 1,000 yards back in the day), and is a steady receiver for Newton to target on third down. Carolina’s offensive line was ravaged by injury last season, with the loss of Ryan Kalil hurting the most.
Defensive Outlook = Carolina made great strides defensively last season, and the catalyst was Luke Kuechly. Kuechly looks like a player that can be a top-5 middle linebacker for the better part of the next decade. Jon Beason is capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level, but has only suited up for five games in the last 32 games. Even 10 games out of him will be a lift for the defense. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were a menace for opposing tackles, Carolina used their first two draft picks on defensive tackles, with first round pick Star Lotulelei having the chance to be the game changing defensive tackle the Panthers have never had. The secondary is a major concern, as it appears that it’s an open competition to see who starts at corner and both safety spots.

Ceiling = 10-6 – They did win five of their last six last season, so double digit wins isn’t impossible.

Floor = 2-14 – Poor offensive line play combined with awful secondary play could be the perfect storm for an awful season.
Prediction = 7-9
            It’s boring to predict the same win total as last year, but there wasn’t enough roster improvement to suggest a serious increase in victories will occur. Carolina won’t take off until they finally can Head Coach Ron Rivera.
 

3. New Orleans Saints

 



2012 Record = 7-9, second in NFC South

2013 Schedule = Falcons, @ Buccaneers, Cardinals, Dolphins, @ Bears, @ Patriots, BYE, Bills, @ Jets, Cowboys, 49ers, @ Falcons, @ Seahawks, Panthers, @ Rams, @ Panthers, Buccaneers

Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, RG Jahri Evans

Supporting Cast = RB Mark Ingram, RB Darren Sproles, WR Lance Moore, LG Ben Grubbs, C
Brian de la Puente, DE Cameron Jordan, MLB Curtis Lofton, P Thomas Morstead
Notable Rookies = FS Kenny Vaccaro (Texas, 1-15), DT Johnathan Jenkins (Georgia, 3-82)

Offensive Outlook = The only reason the Saints won seven games last year was because of the raw talent they have on offense. Drew Brees wasn’t as accurate as he was in previous years, but that had more to do with the Saints playing from behind more often than usual. He’s still a top-5 quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. It’s likely that this is the last year Mark Ingram gets a chance to demonstrate he can be a feature back. Pierre Thomas is still lurking, but at least Chris Ivory has been shipped to New York. Darren Sproles will handle the receiving chores out of the backfield, and will have a chance at catching 100 passes this year. Jimmy Graham is the #1 receiving threat, and is the most dynamic tight end in the NFC. Marques Colston isn’t explosive, but there aren’t many other wide receivers more reliable on third down. Lance Moore generated 1,000+ yards for the first time in his career thanks to an unusual spike in his average yards per catch. New Orleans will need a deep threat to emerge. Nick Toon, Joe Morgan (not the senile Hall of Fame second baseman), or rookie Kenny Stills are the candidates to fill that role.

Defensive Outlook = Only three times did the Saints allow less than 20 points last season. Seven times, 30+ points were dropped on them. Rob Ryan has been hired, and is switching the Saints from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense. Cameron Jordan might be the player most impacted by this switch, as he’ll have a hard time getting to the quarterback working as a 3-4 defensive end. The linebacking core is the strength of the defense, with Victor Butler a potential impact player as a pass rushing outside linebacker but they will have to do without Victor Butler, who's knee exploded during training camp. New Orleans’ secondary was miserable, and things don’t look that much better this year. Kenny Vaccaro does have a chance to make an impact as a versatile, do-it-all safety.

 

Ceiling = 11-5 – Is a head coach worth four wins? We’ll find out this year when Sean Payton returns.
Floor = 5-11 – The defense still sucks. A lot.
Prediction = 8-8
            If Sean Payton was a returning shutdown cornerback, I might pencil New Orleans in for a division title. The defense isn’t good enough for New Orleans to make a serious Super Bowl run.
 

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

2012 Record = 7-9, fourth in NFC South

2013 Schedule = @ Jets, Saints, @ Patriots, Cardinals, BYE, Eagles, @ Falcons, Panthers, @ Seahawks, Dolphins, Falcons, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Bills, 49ers, @ Rams, @ Saints

Franchise Players = RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent Jackson, DT Gerald McCoy, CB Darrelle Revis

Supporting Cast = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams, LT Donald Penn, LG Carl Nicks, RG Davin Joseph, MLB Mason Foster, OLB Lavonte David, FS Dashon Goldson, SS Mark Barron
Notable Rookies = CB Johnthan Banks (Mississippi St., 2-43), QB Mike Glennon (N.C. State, 3-73)

Offensive Outlook = Tampa Bay was in the thick of the NFC playoff race before Josh Freeman drove the Buccaneers off a cliff. The Bucs lost five of their last six games (their only win in that stretch was in the season finale against the Falcons, who had already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs), and Freeman’s inaccuracy had a lot to do with it. He put up a 6-10 touchdown to interception ratio in the final six games (as opposed to 21-7 in the first ten), and only completed 54.8% of his passes for the season. A return to his 2010 form is vital if Tampa Bay wants to return to the playoffs. Doug Martin demonstrated in his rookie year that he is more than able to shoulder a full-time workload. Tampa’s inability to consistently throw the football was the only reason for Martin’s dive in late season productivity. Vincent Jackson was the rare free agent signing that paid immediate dividends, as set career highs for receptions and receiving yards. His presence on the field also opened up space for Mike Williams to operate. The greatest unknown about the Buccaneers is how they will perform if their starting guards stay healthy. Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph are both capable of being franchise players, but must prove they can return to form after having their 2012 campaigns ruined by injury.

Defensive Outlook = The Buccaneers had the worst pass defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last season, and they were aggressive in fixing that weakness. It was a gamble to ship out draft picks for Darrelle Revis, but if he comes back at a level close to his pre-injury form, it will be worth it. He’s the rare corner that even in today’s pass-happy NFL can still take away an opposing team’s top receiver. Ex-49er Dashon Goldson was also brought in to solidify the safety core. A second year leap in performance from Mark Barron will give Tampa Bay a fully revamped secondary. Tampa did lead the NFL in run defense, but some of that success is directly related to how bad the pass coverage was. Gerald McCoy was healthy for a full season for the first time, and parlayed that into a Pro Bowl berth. The Buccaneers did lose fellow defensive tackle Roy Miller, so someone will have to step up so McCoy doesn’t end up facing constant double teams. Although not as publicly praised, Lavonte David’s rookie year wasn’t far off of Doug Martin’s in terms of overall production. He paired nicely with Mason Foster last season to stuff the running game.

Ceiling = 13-3 – I already said it earlier, but it bears repeating. If Josh Freeman finds consistency, this team can challenge the Falcons.

Floor = 3-13 – A dismal season could occur if Freeman is terrible and Darrelle Revis isn’t the shutdown corner the Buccaneers paid for.
Prediction = 9-7
            I’m not sold on Freeman, but there’s enough talent here for the team to finish above .500.
 

1. Atlanta Falcons

 

2012 Record = 13-3, first in NFC South, lost NFC Championship Game

2013 Schedule = @ Saints, Rams, @ Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, BYE, Buccaneers, @ Cardinals, @ Panthers, Seahawks, @ Buccaneers, Saints, @ Bills, @ Packers, Redskins, @ 49ers, Panthers

Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez

Supporting Cast = RB Steven Jackson, LT Sam Baker, DE Osi Umenyiora, MLB Akeem Dent, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Asante Samuel, FS Thomas DeCoud, SS William Moore, K Matt Bryant
Notable Rookies = CB Desmond Trufant (Washington, 1-22), CB Robert Alford (Southeastern Louisiana, 2-60)

Offensive Outlook = Thanks to Atlanta convincing Tony Gonzalez to return for one more season, Matt Ryan will have all three of his elite receivers back in 2013. Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best wide receiver duo in the league (think of them as a modern day Randy Moss and Cris Carter). Jones is the more athletic of the two, but White tends to be targeted the most when the Falcons need to move the chains. Gonzalez is still a productive player in his seventeenth season who excels in the red zone. Steven Jackson was signed to replace Michael Turner, and should be an upgrade for the Falcons at runningback. Jackson is a significantly better receiver than Turner, and should be able to cash in some short yardage touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers is a solid change of pace back who will also see consistent touches. The offensive line is the biggest question mark for the Falcons. Two of their starters from a year ago are gone, and they do not have a dominant offensive lineman at any position. Sam Baker is the steadiest, but isn’t an elite run blocker.

Defensive Outlook = Atlanta was a perfect example of how a team should play a “bend-don’t-break” defense. They didn’t stop the run or sack the quarterback enough, but they had outstanding secondary play. Safeties Thomas DeCoud and William Moore emerged as elite playmakers, and the Falcons still have elite ball hawk Asante Samuel. Rookie Desmond Trufant will likely start opposite of Samuel, which is a risk when you’re talking about a team with Super Bowl aspirations. 66-year old Osi Umenyiora has been brought in to replace John Abraham, which is asking a lot. It’s hard to see where quarterback pressure is going to come from for the Falcons.

Ceiling = 13-3 – A pass rush will have to come out of nowhere for Atlanta to match last season’s win total.

Floor = 9-7 – Short of Matt Ryan’s knee exploding, it’s hard to see how Atlanta can lose eight games (they can thank playing the pathetic AFC East for that).
Prediction = 11-5
            Of the NFC South teams, Atlanta is the most complete, but come playoff time their mediocre offensive line and defense will rear its ugly head when they face the other elite teams in the NFC.
 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (1/11-1/13)

10. Browns Hire Norv Turner as Offensive Coordinator
            I’m glad to see that a NFL team will still employ Norv. He’s a joy to bet against.

9. Philadelphia Eagles Interview Brian Billick For Eight Hours

            Reportedly, Billick talked for seven of them.

8. Albert Pujols Signs On For World Baseball Classic

            Before stumbling over this story, I forgot that the WBC was still an event.

7. Dale Jr. Sparks 12-Car Pileup During Testing Session at Daytona

            Folks not apart of Junior Nation may be quick to point out that Junior appears to be in mid-season form.

6. #2 Michigan Loses at Ohio State

5. #1 Duke Shocked By NC State
            A special doubleheader for this week’s “Big-Time College Basketball Upsets That I Don’t Give A Shit About”, sponsored by Wonderbread.
         
4. Patriots Destroy Texans Again, But Lose Gronkowski For the Season
            Unfortunately for New England, it wasn’t Danny Woodhead who broke his arm.

3. Colin Kaepernick Goes Bonkers, Leaders 49ers Rout of Green Bay
            Doing his best Vince Young in the 2006 Rose Bowl impersonation, Kaepernick destroyed the Packers with his arm and legs. He has raised the ceiling of the 49ers immensely.

2. Falcons Try to Give Game Away, Still Beat Seahawks

            No team has ever deserved to lose more than the Atlanta Falcons did Sunday. They squandered a 20-point fourth quarter lead, which if Seattle would’ve held on, would’ve been the worst fourth quarter collapse in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. After an improbable go ahead field goal, they botched a squib kick, giving the Seahawks a chance to only gain 15 yards and have a chance for a field goal. We’ll see if karma strikes the Falcons when San Francisco comes to town this Sunday.

1. Manning Interception Sets Up Improbable Ravens Win

            Baltimore is doing everything it can to fill the “Team of Destiny” role that has been required of past Super Bowl champions the past few years. If it wasn’t for Trindon Holliday’s record setting return day, this game wouldn’t of been close.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ Denver Broncos (13-3)
Saturday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 46.5
            The Ray Lewis Farewell Tour ends here.

DEN 35, BAL 17

BRONCOS (-10) over Ravens

Green Bay Packers (11-5) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)

Saturday, 8:00pm, FOX, O/U 45
            For our money, the best game on the weekend slate. It will take a superhuman performance by Aaron Rodgers to overcome the lack of offensive line play against San Francisco’s terrifying front seven. We predict he will come up just short.   
     
SF 31, GB 27
49ERS (-3) over Packers
 

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 46
            Before I pick Atlanta to win another playoff game, I need to actually see them do it. It’s not hard to envision multiple Matt Ryan interceptions swinging the outcome of this game.

SEA 38, ATL 21

Seahawks (+2.5) over FALCONS
 

Houston Texans (12-4) @ New England Patriots (12-4)

Sunday, 4:30pm, CBS, O/U 48
            A week ago I said that Houston would sneak past Cincinnati before getting obliterated by New England again. I stand by that prediction.

NE 42, HOU 24

PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Texans

Week 15 NFL Picks

Packers (-2.5) over BEARS

Giants (+1.5) over FALCONS

Buccaneers (+3.5) over SAINTS

RAMS (-2.5) over Vikings

BROWNS (Pick ‘em) over Redskins

DOLPHINS (-7.5) over Jaguars

Broncos (-3) over RAVENS

TEXANS (-10) over Colts

Panthers (+3) over CHARGERS

Seahawks (-5) over BILLS (game being played in Toronto)

CARDINALS (+6.5) over Lions

COWBOYS (+2) over Steelers

RAIDERS (-3) over Chiefs

49ers (+4.5) over PATRIOTS

TITANS (-1.5) over Jets

Last Week = 8-8
Thursday = 1-0
Season = 109-94-5

NFL Three-Quarter Pole Power Rankings

            We did something a little different with this edition of our NFL power rankings. Utilizing ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine, we projected the results of every game for the rest of the NFL season. Using that, we’ll rank the teams based on their projected finish.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (2-10, projected finish 3-13)

            Kansas City’s win against Carolina will be one of the five most memorable victories of the 2012-13 season (playoffs included), but that doesn’t mean they will close the year on a five game winning streak. The Chiefs are still a team in desperate need of finding a franchise quarterback.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10, projected finish 3-13)

            I know there a fair amount of years left in this decade, but Blaine Gabbert is a strong candidate for worst first round draft pick of the ‘10s.

30. Philadelphia Eagles (3-9, projected finish 3-13)

            There’s no better example of how devastating an inept offensive line can be for your football team than the 2012 Philadelphia Eagles.

29. Oakland Raiders (3-9, projected finish 4-12)

            The Carson Palmer trade continues to look worse and worse with each passing day. All of the draft picks they gave up to the Bengals could’ve been used to shore up an atrocious defense.

28. Detroit Lions (4-8, projected finish 4-12)

            Every game of the 2012 season for Detroit has looked like a “No Fucking Way Game” in Madden. Long term, they could benefit from adding an elite defensive playmaker with a high draft pick in next year’s draft.

27. New York Jets (5-7, projected finish 5-11)

            Welcome to the AFC’s version of the Eagles.

26. Arizona Cardinals (4-8, projected finish 5-11)

            Weird fact…Arizona was 3-0 with the replacement referees. They are 1-8 since.

25. Carolina Panthers (3-9, projected finish 5-11)

            Ron Rivera doesn’t get talked about enough when the discussion of horrendous NFL coaches comes up.

24. Tennessee Titans (4-8, projected finish 6-10)

            You could argue that Tennessee has only one legitimate win this season (their 37-3 thrashing of Miami in Week 10). At least Chris Johnson has shown that he has a pulse this year.

23. Buffalo Bills (5-7, projected finish 6-10)

            What happens when a team invests too much money in a quarterback from Harvard? The 2012 Buffalo Bills, that’s what happens.

22. Minnesota Vikings (6-6, projected finish 6-10)

            If there were such a thing as “Most Valuable Player Who Got Hurt During the Middle of the Season and His Team Immediately Went in the Shitter Award”, it would go to Percy Harvin.

21. Cleveland Browns (4-8, projected finish 6-10)

            For those of you that play fantasy football and have bitched before because you’re one of the top scoring teams but you’re record doesn’t reflect it, here’s two point differentials for you to chew on for real NFL teams.

-41
-36

            The first point differential is for the Indianapolis Colts, who need two wins to wrap up a Wild Card spot. The second is for the Cleveland Browns, who’ve played their asses off all season but have consistently come up short. Buy stock in the 2013 Browns.

20. Miami Dolphins (5-7, projected finish 7-9)

            There’s way too much Ryan Tannehill involved to give me any optimism about the three-year outlook of the Dolphins. They’d be above .500 if Matt Moore was starting.

19. San Diego Chargers (4-8, projected finish 7-9)

            I’m still trying to figure out how I projected San Diego to win three of their last four games. This team mailed the season in a month ago.

18. Dallas Cowboys (6-6, projected finish 7-9)

            Jerry Jones needs to mail Sean Payton a blank check. It should be plain to see that Dallas is going nowhere with Jason Garrett at the helm.

17. New Orleans Saints (5-7, projected finish 7-9)

            As far as disorganized football teams go, the Saints have done pretty well for themselves.

16. St. Louis Rams (5-6-1, projected finish 7-8-1)

            The Rams are two or three offensive playmakers short of being a playoff team. Their haul from the pre-draft trade with the Redskins last spring should help that.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, projected finish 8-8)

            Who would’ve thought that Tampa Bay would be the highest scoring team in the NFC through 12 games? Too bad they can’t play a lick of defense.

14. Baltimore Ravens (9-3, projected finish 9-7)

            At first glance, it would seem aggressive to predict that Baltimore will lose their last four games, but here’s the argument in bullet points.

-         Baltimore ranks 15^th in passing yardage, 23^rd in rushing, 23^rd in passing yards allowed, and 23^rd in rushing yards allowed.

-         Take away their Week 1 blowout of Cincinnati (remember they were honoring their recently deceased owner) and their Week 10 blowout of Oakland (remember, they are the Raiders), and Baltimore has been outscored by 5 points this season in their other ten games.

-         The replacement refs gift-wrapped a Week 3 win over the Patriots for them, Jason Garrett gift wrapped a Week 6 win over the Cowboys with horrendous clock management (stunner!), and Ray Rice had to convert a fourth and 29 for Baltimore to force overtime against an awful Chargers team.

-         The remaining schedule is @ Redskins (too banged up on defense to hang with RGIII), vs. Broncos (still playing for a first round bye), vs. Giants (will be playing to stay ahead of the Redskins), and vs. Bengals (if Cincinnati takes care of business, they should be battling Baltimore for the final wildcard spot in Week 17 on NBC’s “SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL”. ALL RIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE ARE YOU…oops, sorry).

So you heard it here first, Baltimore loses out and misses the playoffs.

13. Washington Redskins (6-6, projected finish 9-7)

            The cool thing to do is to predict that Washington will overtake the Giants and take the NFC East, and the schedule looks favorable on paper, but remember the plucky Cleveland Browns. Washington travels there in Week 15, and that’s where the winning streak ends. Couple that with resurgence by the Giants (more on that later), and RGIII will have to wait until next year to make his playoff debut.

12. Indianapolis Colts (8-4, projected finish 10-6, #5 seed in the AFC)

            I can’t wait to bet on whoever the Colts play in the first round of the playoffs. Indy will lose by 17+.

11. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, projected finish 10-6, #6 seed in the AFC)

            Here’s the other team I can’t wait to bet against.

10. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1, projected finish 10-5-1, #6 seed in the NFC)

            San Francisco got a tough draw with back-to-back road dates at New England and Seattle. They need to win one or hope Seattle trips up somewhere else in order to secure the division. No Credentials doesn’t see that happening, meaning a road trip to the Giants.

9. Chicago Bears (8-4, projected finish 11-5, #5 seed in the NFC)

            Big props to Chicago attempting to reenact a 1970s style offense. Brandon Marshal has 61 more receptions than any one else on the team, and over 900 more receiving yards than anyone else. I can’t wait for them to get shut out at Seattle in the Wild Card Round.

8. Seattle Seahawks (7-5, projected finish 11-5, #4 seed in the NFC)

            Three games at home (where Seattle morphs into the ’85 Bears) and one road date at Buffalo make for a favorable finish.

7. New York Giants (7-5, projected finish 11-5, #3 seed in the NFC)

            I have New York slaughtering the Falcons in Atlanta Week 15. Don’t let a fluke loss at Washington fool you. The Giants will still be a scary team come January.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5, projected finish 11-5, #4 seed in the AFC)

            With only one road game left (at the pathetic Cowboys), Pittsburgh is poised to take advantage of a potential Baltimore collapse.

5. Denver Broncos (9-3, projected finish 12-4, #3 seed in the AFC)

            The Peyton Manning comeback has been a tremendous success, but in this model, it won’t end well with a forecasted second round clash against New England.

4. Green Bay Packers (8-4, projected finish 12-4, #2 seed in the NFC)

            A road game at Chicago is all that stands in the way between Green Bay securing a first round bye in the playoffs.

3. Atlanta Falcons (11-1, projected finish 13-3, #1 seed in the NFC)

            Atlanta should coast to the number one seed in the NFC, but that doesn’t mean they are a shoe-in to win a playoff game. At least in this model, they won’t have to play the Giants in the second round.

2. New England Patriots (9-3, projected finish 13-3, #2 seed in the AFC)

            Expect the Patriots to take a page out of the Green Bay Packers playbook when Aaron Rodgers hung six touchdowns on the Texans in Week 6.

1. Houston Texans (11-1, projected finish 14-2, #1 seed in the AFC)

            Houston might lose this Monday night at New England, but the rest of their schedule is favorable enough that they should still end up with home-field advantage. It would be a much different game if the Patriots had to travel to Houston for the AFC Championship Game.