Showing posts with label Vincent Jackson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vincent Jackson. Show all posts

Saturday, August 16, 2014

2014 NFC South Preview


4. Carolina Panthers
2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @ Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE, @ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons

Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis
Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Kawann Short
Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)

Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in the league.
Bad News = Who is Cam Newton going to throw too again?

Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order. Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions, he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened offensive line, which will hinder their running game.
            Carolina’s front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make too many plays in deep coverage.
Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013 Record = 4-12, Third in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Saints, @ Bengals, Buccaneers, @ Vikings, @ Giants, Bears, @ Ravens, Lions, BYE, @ Buccaneers, @ Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, @ Packers, Steelers, @ Saints, Panthers

Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah, DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant
Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)

Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.
Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.

Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

            Atlanta didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage.
Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9


2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Panthers, Rams, @ Falcons, @ Steelers, @ Saints, Ravens, BYE, Vikings, @ Browns, Falcons, @ Redskins, @ Bears, Bengals, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Packers, Saints

Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David
High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson
Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner
Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington

Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.
Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire confidence for a surprising playoff run.

Outlook = Offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment to Vincent Jackson.

            Even without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2” defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system.
Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8


1. New Orleans Saints
2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Falcons, @ Browns, Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions, Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears, Falcons, @ Buccaneers

Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, FS Jairus Byrd

High Quality Players = HB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis
Solid Contributors = LG Jahri Evans, RG Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro
Impact Rookies = WR Brandin Cooks (1-20, Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)

Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.
Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.

Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense. Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate their sack totals from a year ago.

            For the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle. A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract situation was resolved before training camp.   
Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule, New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field throughout the playoffs. 12-4

Click here to read about the NFC East
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Click here to read about the AFC North
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Click here to read about the AFC West

Sunday, July 14, 2013

Pre-Season Fantasy Football WR Ranks

          With the pass happy state of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, there are now more valuable fantasy wide receivers than there have ever been before. There’s still one player that is vastly superior to the rest of his peers, but there will be value to be had late if you pass on wide receivers in the early rounds.

 

Tier 1 – Megatron


1
C.Johnson, Lions

Much like Adrian Peterson, you shouldn’t need me to explain why Johnson is head and shoulders above rest of the wide receivers. What differentiates him from AP is the deep position he plays. As you’ll see, as you get deeper into this post, there’s a large quantity of wide receivers you should feel comfortable starting in a given week. There will be a difference in production between Calvin Johnson (who on average is coming off draft boards with the seventh pick) and Lance Moore (he’s a twelfth rounder), but it’s not as wide a gap as the difference between Adrian Peterson and Giovanni Bernard (both are ranked 34th at their respective positions by No Credentials). To make a long story short, the cost of not having an elite runningback is not worth adding Johnson to your roster. The only exception to this rule is if he falls to you at nine or ten, as you should be able to snag a Tier 2 runningback (think Alfred Morris or Trent Richardson) in the second. 


Tier 2 – Legit #1 Receivers


2
D.Bryant, Cowboys
3
B.Marshall, Bears
4
A.Green, Bengals
5
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals
6
J.Jones, Falcons
7
A.Johnson, Texans
8
R.White, Falcons
9
D.Thomas, Broncos

I have a simple rule with this group…if it’s the third round, and Jimmy Graham is already off the board, I’m drafting one of these guys. That means Bryant, Marshall, Green, and Julio Jones are all too expensive for me.


Tier 3 – Low End #1s or High End #2s


10
V.Cruz, Giants
11
R.Wayne, Colts
12
V.Jackson, Buccaneers

Here are you fringe #1 receivers that have an extra question mark than their Tier 2 counterparts. Victor Cruz regressed after his ridiculous 2011 campaign to post stats that should be the norm for him. Reggie Wayne isn’t getting any younger, and Vincent Jackson has the most erratic starting quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE not named Blaine Gabbert.
           With all that said, these are the guys that I’m targeting to be a #1 or #2 receiver on my team. Cruz is the most expensive, but if I’m picking towards the end of the third round I’ll be happy to take him. You have the chance to snag Wayne or Jackson in the fourth or fifth round if you’re in a ten-team league, which is a tremendous value. If Josh Freeman gets his completion percentage closer to 60%, Jackson will put up Tier 2 numbers.


Tier 4 – League Deciders

13
H.Nicks, Giants
14
P.Harvin, Seahawks
15
M.Colston, Saints
16
A.Brown, Steelers
17
R.Cobb, Packers
18
D.Bowe, Chiefs
19
W.Welker, Broncos
20
J.Nelson, Packers
21
S.Smith, Panthers
22
T.Smith, Ravens

Other than the Tier 3 runningback group, this is the group that will swing the most fantasy league titles. Odds are good that one of these guys will be your #2 receiver (unless your of the opinion that Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb can deliver top 10 value, which I’m not). Harvin has the greatest per game upside, but how many games he will suit up for the Seahawks is difficult to project. I’m more bullish on Antonio Brown than most, but he’s the most accomplished receiver Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal.


Tier 5 – High Ceilings, Low Floors


23
E.Decker, Broncos
24
K.Britt, Titans
25
M.Wallace, Dolphins
26
D.Amendola, Patriots

Three out of four of these players belong together based on average draft position, but Kenny Britt is the one I’m either way to high on (no pun intended to those of you aware of Kenny Britt’s legal troubles) or a guy I’m ahead of the curve on. All four of these players have potential to produce top-15 value, but they are not without risk. Decker, Wallace, and Amendola are all going around the 50th pick, while you can get Britt sometime around the 11th round (I guess he’s ending up a bunch of my teams).


Tier 6 – Low Risk, High Upside


27
J.Maclin, Eagles
28
S.Johnson, Bills
29
M.Austin, Cowboys
30
P.Garcon, Redskins
31
D.Alexander, Chargers
32
J.Jones, Packers
33
J.Gordon, Browns

I like all of these guys as candidates to be the third wide receiver I take on my teams. Betty White has better knees than Danario Alexander, but if he can somehow stay on the field for a full season, he’ll produce top-15 value. 


Tier 7 – Your Bye Week Subs


34
L.Moore, Saints
35
A.Boldin, 49ers
36
M.Williams, Buccaneers
37
G.Jennings, Vikings
38
D.Moore, Raiders
39
E.Sanders, Steelers
40
T.Austin, Rams
41
D.Jackson, Eagles
42
T.Hilton, Colts
43
A.Jeffrey, Bears
44
C.Shorts, Jaguars
45
S.Rice, Seahawks

These are my ideal bye-week substitutes, with Tavon Austin and Alshon Jeffrey having the potential to elevate to must start status. Cecil Shorts demonstrated that he’s capable of producing top-10 value in spurts, but I’m not investing in any wide receiver dependant on the performance of Blaine Gabbert.


Tier 8 – Guys You Hopefully Don’t Plan on Starting Every Week


46
M.Floyd, Chargers
47
J.Blackmon, Jaguars
48
K.Wright, Titans
49
B.Hartline, Dolphins
50
C.Givens, Rams

           If you don’t land anyone from the previous group as your top bye week sub, this is what you’re stuck with. Justin Blackmon is a draft-an-stash candidate, as he will be missing the first four games of the season. Chris Givens showed big play ability last season, and is the type of player that can drop a random 25-point game any given week.

No Credentials Top-36, Cost Adjusted


            Based on the average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s which players I want the most on my fantasy teams. We upped the number to 36 for WRs because if you are in a league that offers a flex position, odds are it’s a wide receiver that will fill it.

V.Jackson, Buccaneers (35.1)
A.Johnson, Texans (30.8)
R.Wayne, Colts (42.2)
V.Cruz, Giants (28.7)
R.White, Falcons (27.5)
L.Fitzgerald, Cardinals (23.2)
D.Thomas, Broncos (22.3)
A.Brown, Steelers (58.9)
D.Bowe, Chiefs (42.7)
T.Smith, Ravens (50.2)
K.Britt, Titans (112.8)
J.Maclin, Eagles (99.9)
D.Alexander, Chargers (80.5)
H.Nicks, Giants (46.7)
M.Colston, Saints (38.5)
D.Amendola, Patriots (49.2)
S.Johnson, Bills (93.5)
M.Austin, Cowboys (95.4)
W.Welker, Broncos (43.4)
J.Gordon, Browns (111.9)
J.Jones, Falcons (17.7)
P.Harvin, Seahawks (30.3)
R.Cobb, Packers (30.6)
B.Marshall, Bears (16.1)
C.Johnson, Lions (7.0)
S.Smith, Panthers (60.8)
J.Jones, Packers (68.5)
P.Garcon, Redskins (65.9)
M.Williams, Buccaneers (105.9)
M.Wallace, Dolphins (53.5)
D.Bryant, Cowboys (14.8)
L.Moore, Saints (107.6)
E.Decker, Broncos (53.6)
J.Nelson, Packers (37.9)
A.Boldin, 49ers (102.3)
A.Green, Bengals (12.9)

 

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

2011 AFC West Preview

            Here is the second No Credentials Division Preview. If it weren’t for San Diego, this division would be almost as putrid as the NFC West.

4. Oakland Raiders



2010 Record = 8-8, 3rd in Division
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, possibly DT John Henderson (still unsigned)

Schedule = @ Broncos, @ Bills, Jets, Patriots, @ Texans, Browns, Chiefs, BYE, Broncos, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Dolphins, @ Packers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Chargers

Real-Life Outlook = Oakland was a surprisingly spunky team last season that actually scored 37 more points than their opponents. Their strengths were a powerful running game (led by Darren McFadden, who finally showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of Arkansas) and a solid defense that kept them in games. The running game is intact, but the defense will be a shell of it’s former self. Asomugha took out the best wide receiver week in and week out, allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the other half of the field. With him gone, it’s going to be much easier for opposing quarterbacks to operate. A leaky defense will put the offense in deeper holes forcing quarterback Jason Campbell to make plays. Ask Redskins fans how things turn out  when you need a play from Jason Campbell. This is another candidate for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Fantasy Outlook = McFadden is currently the tenth runningback being taken in Yahoo! drafts, which is just about right. I like him more than Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew this year in PPR leagues. No one else offensively is worth being drafted, although you should monitor the performance of Oakland wide receivers early in the season. TE Zach Miller is gone, leaving roughly 60 passes up for grabs. Keep an eye on Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12

3. Denver Broncos

 

2010 Record = 4-12, 4th in Division
Key Additions = RB Willis McGahee
Key Losses = T Ryan Harris

Schedule = Raiders, Bengals, @ Titans, @ Packers, Chargers, BYE, @ Dolphins, Lions, @ Raiders, @ Chiefs, Jets, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs

Real-Life Outlook = John Fox has made a career out of getting the most out of rosters (the guy did coach a team that had Jake Delhomme playing quarterback all the way to the Super Bowl one year), and this season should be no different. Unfortunately, that means he will be lucky to squeeze 6 wins out of a roster that should only generate three. The defense still has holes, but they can’t play any worse than they did last season. 
Fantasy Outlook = Kyle Orton is nothing more than a fantasy backup at best. Denver will not throw the ball nearly as much as they did when Josh McDaniels was calling the plays. If Knowshon Moreno is ever to do anything in the NFL, this is the season he needs to do it. He will be the lead back in a run first offense. Brandon Lloyd will still be productive (as long as Tebow is off the field), but don't expect him to pile up the same amount of yards he did last season. I expect him to settle somewhere around the 1,100 range, with 8 touchdowns.

Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

2. Kansas City Chiefs



2010 Record = 10-6, 1st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Ravens)
Key Additions = T Jared Gaither, WR Steve Breaston
Key Losses = None

Schedule = Bills, @ Lions, @ Chargers, Vikings, @ Colts, BYE, @ Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @ Patriots, Steelers, @ Bears, @ Jets, Packers, Raiders, @ Broncos

Real-Life Outlook = A whole lot of things went right for Kansas City last year until they were crushed at home in the playoffs. Jamaal Charles emerged as the next great fantasy runningback (more on that in the next section), while Thomas Jones spelled him effectively. Buoyed by their young secondary, the Chiefs defense was as solid as it has been since the Marty Schottenheimer era. Most importantly, Matt Cassel was competent enough that he didn’t derail the Chiefs division-winning season.
            Looking ahead, I think Cassel is what’s going to hold this team back. His ability to throw the ball downfield is sub-par at best (the guy couldn’t even figure out how to complete a bomb to Randy Moss when Moss was still in his prime), and his poor pocket awareness will undo the team against a much harder schedule. Last year, Kansas City got to play the entire NFC West. This year, they face the NFC North. You could argue that all four NFC North teams are better than any team in the West. Kansas City won’t be able to run the ball 65% of the time to protect Cassel. 
Fantasy Outlook = Even though I just bashed him in the last paragraph, Cassel is a decent back-up QB option to target late. Assuming he’s still healthy going into week 16, his match-up against Oakland will be one of the best ones any quarterback will have during the championship week of most fantasy leagues. On average, Jamaal Charles is the 5th pick in all Yahoo! drafts. I fully endorse taking him over any other runningback not named Adrian Peterson. Dwayne Bowe is the 10th wide receiver being taken in most drafts. He can be lazy at times (name me a wide receiver that isn’t), but he should be able to deliver at least 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense is borderline start-able, but keep in mind that they have a much tougher schedule. You won’t want anything to do with them when they play the Colts, Patriots, or Packers.

Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. San Diego Chargers



2010 Record = 9-7, 2nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Takeo Spikes
Key Losses = RB Darren Sproles, LB Kevin Burnett

Schedule = Vikings, @ Patriots, Chiefs, Dolphins, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Jets, @ Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, @ Lions, @ Raiders

Real-Life Outlook = San Diego’s 2011 season was one of the strangest in league history. Philip Rivers led the offense to score 441 points, a total only topped by the Patriots. The defense held opponents to 322, good for 9th. However, costly turnovers crippled them, and the team with the 5th best point differential in the league missed the playoffs.
            One could argue that last season was a fluke, and San Diego should rebound to post a double-digit win campaign. The only strong argument against this is Norv Turner still filling the role of Head Coach. Norv is a fantastic offensive coordinator (he filled that role for the 1992 and 1993 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys), but has consistently come up flat as a headman. I trust him just enough to lead this team to a division title, but won’t be putting any money on Norv once the calendar hits January of 2012.  
Fantasy Outlook = Philip Rivers is one of the six elite fantasy QBs. Currently going at the start of the 3rd round in 12-team leagues, Rivers should continue to pile up yards and touchdowns this season. I would take him over Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady this season. Ryan Matthews was a dud last year, but certainly has plenty of post-hype sleeper potential. Antonio Gates is the most dominant fantasy tight end in the game. If you have a chance to take him at any point in the 4th round, do it, even with concerns about his ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis. Vincent Jackson will be on board for the entire season, and is capable of producing #1 receiver numbers. He’s currently the 13th wide-out coming off the board. Also watch out for whoever emerges as the #2 receiver. With as much as San Diego throws the ball, there is enough room for Gates, Jackson, and another receiver to go over 1,000 yards. Lastly, San Diego’s defense will be worthy of starting virtually every week.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

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the AFC North
the AFC South
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West