2012 AFC West Preview

            It’s time to head to the AFC West, aka “the division that traded the rights to Tebow and God for Peyton Manning”.

4. Oakland Raiders

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC West

2012 Schedule = SD, @ MIA, PIT, @ DEN, BYE, @ ATL, JAC, @ KC, TB, @ BAL, NO, @ CIN, CLE, DEN, KC, @ CAR, @ SD

Franchise Players = QB Carson Palmer, RB Darren McFadden, DT Richard Seymour, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler (seriously)

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = Carson Palmer wasn’t all that bad for a guy who was sitting on his couch the first six weeks of the season. If he has a healthy Darren McFadden at his disposal for at least 14 games (a big if, because McFadden has never played more than 13 in a single season), the Raiders could have a frisky offense. Unfortunately, the loss of their first round pick (read about it hear) coupled with the large amount of draft picks they had already given away in past trades means this is a team that lacks serious depth. It will take a return to 2006 form and a full year of health from McFadden (read about what a healthy McFadden could mean to the fantasy community here) to drag this bunch into Wildcard contention.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record = 7-9, Last in AFC West

2012 Schedule = ATL, @ BUF, @ NO, SD, BAL, @ TB, BYE, OAK, @ SD, @ PIT, CIN, DEN, CAR, @ CLE, @ OAK, IND, @ DEN

Franchise Players = RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, T Brandon Albert, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Brandon Flowers, S Eric Berry

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Peyton Hillis, T Eric Winston
Potential Impact Rookies = Dontari Poe (Memphis) 1-11, G Jeff Allen (Illinois) 2-12

Outlook = Kansas City is loaded with solid young talent, but they’d be much more attractive if the Peyton they added this off-season was Manning instead of Hillis. Matt Cassel is the NFL equivalent of a restrictor plate on a stock car. Expect the Chiefs to be in numerous low scoring games this season that hopefully no one other than Kansas City fans will have to watch. I’ll bet on Cassel hijacking a couple of potential victories for them.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. San Diego Chargers

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC West

2012 Schedule = @ OAK, TEN, ATL, @ KC, @ NO, DEN, BYE, @ CLE, KC, @ TB, @ DEN, BAL, CIN, @ PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK

Franchise Players = QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Matthews, TE Antonio Gates, C Nick Hardwick, OLB Shaun Phillips

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, DT Aubrayo Franklin, S Atari Bigby
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) 1-18, DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) 2-17

Outlook = It’s truly incredible that A.J. Smith and Norv Turner are still employed in the Chargers organization. After squandering top-end talent for most of the past decade (including the prime years of LaDainian Tomlinson, the best runningback of the ‘00s), they finally bottomed out with a pitiful 8-8 record, squandering a chance to win the most winnable division in football. While most folks are ready to point the finger at Turner, Smith deserves most of the blame for letting a once formidable defense erode into a mid-tier unit. To San Diego’s credit, they were aggressive in the off-season, adding three solid defensive linemen through the draft and free agency. They are a defensive playmaker away (something they haven’t had since Shaun Merriman’s best seasons) from returning to their previous form.

            As for the other side of the ball, a return to their 2010 form hinges on the health of Antonio Gates and the emergence of a wide receiver. Blessed with good health for the most of his career, Gates has had foot problems each of the past two seasons. If healthy, he’s capable of putting up similar production to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. With the loss of Vincent Jackson (who other than a monster game against the Patriots last year, was way overrated), someone will need to step up to be Philip River’s main outside target. Meachem is the most likely to emerge (he was lost in the uber-deep receiving core the Saints have), but Eddie Royal and Malcolm Floyd have been valuable assets before as well.
            With all that said, the pieces are in place for the Chargers to bounce back in 2012. There isn’t a game on their schedule that you point to and say they have no chance of winning (maybe their road date at Pittsburgh, depending on high you are on the Steelers). It all boils down to whether or not Norv Turner screws it up.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7 (I’m done banking on Norv)

1. Denver Broncos

2011 Record = 8-8, First in AFC West, Lost in AFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = PIT, @ ATL, HOU, OAK, @ NE, @ SD, BYE, NO, @ CIN, @ CAR, SD, @ KC, TB, @ OAK, @ BAL, CLE, KC

Franchise Players = RB Willis McGahee, WR DeMaryius Thomas (will find this out once Manning is playing) T Ryan Clady, DE Elvis Dumervil, LB Von Miller, CB Champ Bailey

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, CB Tracy Porter
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 2-4, QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 2-25

Outlook = I don’t think anyone can honestly predict what Denver will get out of Peyton Manning this season, but let’s say the worst happens and Manning barely plays. This was a club that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback who couldn’t read defenses, work through a progression of receivers, or for that matter, throw an out or a slant. I think if Brock Osweiler is forced to play, Denver can tighten up the playbook like they did with Tebow and muddle their way to another .500 season. No Credentials will step out on a limb and say Manning will be healthy, and effective. We’ll realize that DeMaryius Thomas is actually an elite receiver, and Eric Decker isn’t bad either (click here to see what these two could do for the fantasy community with a healthy Manning). A bruising running game will be enhanced by the threat of the pass, which is something Denver never had the luxury of last season with Tebow under center. Denver even has a defense built to rush the passer, so if Manning can deliver some early leads, Von Miller and company will be able to pin their ears back and attack the quarterback. If everything clicks (which is a big if), we could be talking about the scariest team in the AFC. 

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 5-11 (can’t discount that God could hold a grudge over dumping Tebow)

No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

Click here to read about the AFC East
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Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/23-9/25)

10. “Real Steel” Continues to Be Heavily Advertised on Television

            I’ve seen commercials for “Real Steel” roughly 1,200 times over the last three weeks. Every time one starts, I burst out laughing. Amazingly, someone doled out $80 million for a movie where Hugh Jackman becomes a creator of a life-sized Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robot (and we wonder why the economy is in the toilet). This film is supposed to be a “science-fiction drama”, but I’ll be stunned if it doesn't leak out that this movie is supposed to be a satire. That’s the only way it makes sense. 

9.  Bengals Wide Receiver Jerome Simpson Plays Four Days After Drug Bust at His Home

            Weird off the field situations always seem to impact the performance of a team. The most memorable incident for me was when Eugene Robinson was arrested for attempting to solicit sex from an undercover cop the night before Super Bowl 33 (made even more humorous because Robinson was named the NFL’s Man of the Year just hours before getting arrested). Robinson was roasted by John Elway multiple times, and Denver blew out Atlanta for their second straight Super Bowl victory.
            That event, and others that have followed (Raiders center Barrett Robbins going AWOL before Super Bowl 37, the man hunt for Vince Young a few years back) have taught me that messed up crap inevitably leads to losing. I originally was going to select Cincinnati to win this game before quickly remember that Jerome Simpson had almost 10 pounds of marijuana confiscated from his home. Without even considering that Alex Smith was going across the country to play a 1pm game on the east coast, I penciled in the 49ers as my pick. The offense looked like a limp noodle for three and a half quarters, but woke up just in time to make me feel really smart.

8. Texas A&M Officially Announces 2012 Move to SEC

            Not that the move had anything to do with their last game, but it is humorous to see Texas A&M bolt the Big 12 a day after giving away a 17 point lead at home against conference rival Oklahoma State.
     
7. LSU Takes Over #1 Ranking From Oklahoma
            I watched about ten minutes of LSU going on the road and dismantling West Virginia Saturday night. I’m not sure this team is any better than Oklahoma or Alabama, but they deserve he top spot after defeating three ranked opponents in the first four weeks.

6. Darren McFadden Runs All Over Jets, Leads Raiders to Victory

            I thought Oakland had a chance if it was a low scoring game, but never would’ve thought Run DMC would go completely bonkers in this one. For those of you that drafted him in the early part of the second round of your fantasy league, congratulations.

5. Lions Comeback From 20-0 Deficit, Win in Overtime Against Vikings

            I was at Story Land (a rinky-dink amusement park in the Mount Washington Valley, for those of you not familiar with New Hampshire hot-spots) during the early games, so while my wife was changing my son’s diaper, I called my dad for some scores. My dad has been Vikings fan for years (someday we’ll let him do an essay on this site about how much it sucks being a Minnesota fan), so I opened the conversation by asking how much the Vikings were losing by. Surprisingly, he informed me that Minnesota was leading 20-10 at the start of the fourth. Without blinking, I replied, “Well that’s plenty of time for Minnesota to blow the game.” Needless to say, laughter filled the Muir house when I got home and saw that Detroit won in overtime.

4. Tony Stewart Wins Second Straight Chase Race in New Hampshire

            If Stewart wins again next week, feel free to never read any insight into NASCAR I have to offer. 

3. Giants Break Michael Vick’s Right Hand, Stun Eagles in Philly

            This game would’ve been more fun for me if Vick weren’t the quarterback for one of my fantasy teams (a team that also lost Kenny Britt, who probably shredded a knee ligament or two against Denver today). Nevertheless, I’m very happy to see the “all-hype team” (copyrighted by Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan) struggling. You could argue that if some guy named Mike Kafka wasn’t involved the Eagles would be 3-0 right now, but I’ll take Philadelphia losses anyway I can get them.

2. Packers Take Care of Business in Chicago

            This is exactly what should happen when a champion travels on the road to play a mediocre team. Even more important for Green Bay, Ryan Grants looks like he has his mojo back.     

1. Bills End 15 Game Losing Streak Against Patriots

            I was chatting with a stranger the other day about how I thought the Patriots defense was terrible and Buffalo was going to score a ton of points on them. The guy, clearly perturbed, told me, “People that actually know what they are talking about say that New England will have the best defense in the league by Week 8.” Apparently who ever he listens to is under the impression that the Patriots’ cornerbacks will have growth spurts and become four inches taller. New England couldn’t cover anyone, and Brady kept throwing the ball to the wrong guys. Huge win for the Bills.

2011 AFC West Preview

            Here is the second No Credentials Division Preview. If it weren’t for San Diego, this division would be almost as putrid as the NFC West.

4. Oakland Raiders

2010 Record = 8-8, 3^rd in Division
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, possibly DT John Henderson (still unsigned)

Schedule = @ Broncos, @ Bills, Jets, Patriots, @ Texans, Browns, Chiefs, BYE, Broncos, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Dolphins, @ Packers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Chargers

Real-Life Outlook = Oakland was a surprisingly spunky team last season that actually scored 37 more points than their opponents. Their strengths were a powerful running game (led by Darren McFadden, who finally showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of Arkansas) and a solid defense that kept them in games. The running game is intact, but the defense will be a shell of it’s former self. Asomugha took out the best wide receiver week in and week out, allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the other half of the field. With him gone, it’s going to be much easier for opposing quarterbacks to operate. A leaky defense will put the offense in deeper holes forcing quarterback Jason Campbell to make plays. Ask Redskins fans how things turn out  when you need a play from Jason Campbell. This is another candidate for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Fantasy Outlook = McFadden is currently the tenth runningback being taken in Yahoo! drafts, which is just about right. I like him more than Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew this year in PPR leagues. No one else offensively is worth being drafted, although you should monitor the performance of Oakland wide receivers early in the season. TE Zach Miller is gone, leaving roughly 60 passes up for grabs. Keep an eye on Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12

3. Denver Broncos

 

2010 Record = 4-12, 4^th in Division
Key Additions = RB Willis McGahee
Key Losses = T Ryan Harris

Schedule = Raiders, Bengals, @ Titans, @ Packers, Chargers, BYE, @ Dolphins, Lions, @ Raiders, @ Chiefs, Jets, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs

Real-Life Outlook = John Fox has made a career out of getting the most out of rosters (the guy did coach a team that had Jake Delhomme playing quarterback all the way to the Super Bowl one year), and this season should be no different. Unfortunately, that means he will be lucky to squeeze 6 wins out of a roster that should only generate three. The defense still has holes, but they can’t play any worse than they did last season. 
Fantasy Outlook = Kyle Orton is nothing more than a fantasy backup at best. Denver will not throw the ball nearly as much as they did when Josh McDaniels was calling the plays. If Knowshon Moreno is ever to do anything in the NFL, this is the season he needs to do it. He will be the lead back in a run first offense. Brandon Lloyd will still be productive (as long as Tebow is off the field), but don't expect him to pile up the same amount of yards he did last season. I expect him to settle somewhere around the 1,100 range, with 8 touchdowns.

Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

2. Kansas City Chiefs

2010 Record = 10-6, 1^st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Ravens)
Key Additions = T Jared Gaither, WR Steve Breaston
Key Losses = None

Schedule = Bills, @ Lions, @ Chargers, Vikings, @ Colts, BYE, @ Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @ Patriots, Steelers, @ Bears, @ Jets, Packers, Raiders, @ Broncos

Real-Life Outlook = A whole lot of things went right for Kansas City last year until they were crushed at home in the playoffs. Jamaal Charles emerged as the next great fantasy runningback (more on that in the next section), while Thomas Jones spelled him effectively. Buoyed by their young secondary, the Chiefs defense was as solid as it has been since the Marty Schottenheimer era. Most importantly, Matt Cassel was competent enough that he didn’t derail the Chiefs division-winning season.
            Looking ahead, I think Cassel is what’s going to hold this team back. His ability to throw the ball downfield is sub-par at best (the guy couldn’t even figure out how to complete a bomb to Randy Moss when Moss was still in his prime), and his poor pocket awareness will undo the team against a much harder schedule. Last year, Kansas City got to play the entire NFC West. This year, they face the NFC North. You could argue that all four NFC North teams are better than any team in the West. Kansas City won’t be able to run the ball 65% of the time to protect Cassel. 
Fantasy Outlook = Even though I just bashed him in the last paragraph, Cassel is a decent back-up QB option to target late. Assuming he’s still healthy going into week 16, his match-up against Oakland will be one of the best ones any quarterback will have during the championship week of most fantasy leagues. On average, Jamaal Charles is the 5^th pick in all Yahoo! drafts. I fully endorse taking him over any other runningback not named Adrian Peterson. Dwayne Bowe is the 10^th wide receiver being taken in most drafts. He can be lazy at times (name me a wide receiver that isn’t), but he should be able to deliver at least 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense is borderline start-able, but keep in mind that they have a much tougher schedule. You won’t want anything to do with them when they play the Colts, Patriots, or Packers.

Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. San Diego Chargers

2010 Record = 9-7, 2^nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Takeo Spikes
Key Losses = RB Darren Sproles, LB Kevin Burnett

Schedule = Vikings, @ Patriots, Chiefs, Dolphins, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Jets, @ Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, @ Lions, @ Raiders

Real-Life Outlook = San Diego’s 2011 season was one of the strangest in league history. Philip Rivers led the offense to score 441 points, a total only topped by the Patriots. The defense held opponents to 322, good for 9^th. However, costly turnovers crippled them, and the team with the 5^th best point differential in the league missed the playoffs.
            One could argue that last season was a fluke, and San Diego should rebound to post a double-digit win campaign. The only strong argument against this is Norv Turner still filling the role of Head Coach. Norv is a fantastic offensive coordinator (he filled that role for the 1992 and 1993 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys), but has consistently come up flat as a headman. I trust him just enough to lead this team to a division title, but won’t be putting any money on Norv once the calendar hits January of 2012.  
Fantasy Outlook = Philip Rivers is one of the six elite fantasy QBs. Currently going at the start of the 3^rd round in 12-team leagues, Rivers should continue to pile up yards and touchdowns this season. I would take him over Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady this season. Ryan Matthews was a dud last year, but certainly has plenty of post-hype sleeper potential. Antonio Gates is the most dominant fantasy tight end in the game. If you have a chance to take him at any point in the 4^th round, do it, even with concerns about his ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis. Vincent Jackson will be on board for the entire season, and is capable of producing #1 receiver numbers. He’s currently the 13^th wide-out coming off the board. Also watch out for whoever emerges as the #2 receiver. With as much as San Diego throws the ball, there is enough room for Gates, Jackson, and another receiver to go over 1,000 yards. Lastly, San Diego’s defense will be worthy of starting virtually every week.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

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the AFC North
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the NFC East
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