Pre-Season Fantasy Football TE Ranks

           Last year was hyped as the deepest crop of useful fantasy tight ends in history. This year, not so much. Aaron Hernandez…well, I don’t need to tell you what happened to him (just know he was ranked second on this list before his legal troubles). Rob Gronkowski…I don’t have to talk about him either. Two thirds of the top tight end tier has been reduced to rubble (along with the dominance of the New England Patriots offense, but we will save that conversation for another day). We don’t need to publish a value adjusted ranking at the end here, as my personal values of players will not be impacted by the draft pick I need to spend on them.

Tier 1 – The Last Man Standing

1	J.Graham, Saints

This is a rule that if you have designs on winning your fantasy league, you have to live by…if you have the chance to draft Jimmy Graham in the third round, you do it. No questions asked. His average draft spot is 18.5, which puts him towards the end of the second in ten team leagues. If I still have a shot at a Tier 3 runningback with my third round pick, I’d make the plunge in the second.

            For those wondering why Graham is such a valuable commodity, you must consider two things. One, he’s going to produce like Tier 2 or 3 wide receiver. Secondly, there isn’t a safer bet at tight end to produce at that level than Graham. Getting the scoring output he generates on a week-to-week basis at a week position is a tremendous advantage.

Tier 2 – The Lottery Ticket

2	R.Gronkowski, Patriots

If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet for 15 touchdown receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob Gronkowski. The problem is his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your first four picks, and one of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting Gronk. Even if he doesn’t make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your fantasy league for you. If he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s always next year.

Tier 3 – Old Reliables

3	J.Witten, Cowboys
4	T.Gonzalez, Falcons

These are you safe sixth round picks if you miss out on the Rob Gronkowski sweepstakes. Witten might be worth a fifth round pick if you’re playing in a PPR league.

Tier 4 – Solid Contributors

5	V.Davis, 49ers
6	D.Pitta, Ravens
7	G.Olsen, Panthers
8	A.Gates, Chargers

There’s a decent chance that one of these guys will end up as the second highest scoring tight end in fantasy this season, but good luck picking which one will do it. Davis presents the best opportunity for a monster year, as it looks like he’ll line up at wide receiver while Michael Crabtree is on the shelf.

Tier 5 – Inconsistent Commodities

9	O.Daniels, Texans
10	B.Myers, Giants
11	J.Finley, Packers
12	J.Cook, Rams
13	K.Rudolph, Vikings
14	M.Bennett, Bears

Just as likely to score you 15 points as they are to score 1, this group of tight ends will drive you absolutely bonkers if you own one of them.

Tier 6 – Sleepers and Bye Week Subs

15	J.Gresham, Bengals
16	B.Pettigrew, Lions
17	F.Davis, Redskins
18	R.Housler, Cardinals
19	D.Allen, Colts
20	J.Cameron, Browns
21	D.Keller, Dolphins
22	Z.Miller, Seahawks
23	H.Miller, Steelers
24	D.Walker, Titans
25	B.Celek, Eagles

 
          None of these guys should be drafted unless you are in a twelve-team league, and even then I don’t think I’d take the plunge. All of these guys should be considered as bye week pickups, but a couple warrant keeping tabs on early in the season. Fred Davis is always productive when he’s healthy, but the problem is he’s never healthy. Rob Housler has generated preseason buzz, and of all the Cardinals not named Larry Fitzgerald, should benefit the most from having an adequate NFL quarterback.

2012 AFC West Preview

            It’s time to head to the AFC West, aka “the division that traded the rights to Tebow and God for Peyton Manning”.

4. Oakland Raiders

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC West

2012 Schedule = SD, @ MIA, PIT, @ DEN, BYE, @ ATL, JAC, @ KC, TB, @ BAL, NO, @ CIN, CLE, DEN, KC, @ CAR, @ SD

Franchise Players = QB Carson Palmer, RB Darren McFadden, DT Richard Seymour, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler (seriously)

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = Carson Palmer wasn’t all that bad for a guy who was sitting on his couch the first six weeks of the season. If he has a healthy Darren McFadden at his disposal for at least 14 games (a big if, because McFadden has never played more than 13 in a single season), the Raiders could have a frisky offense. Unfortunately, the loss of their first round pick (read about it hear) coupled with the large amount of draft picks they had already given away in past trades means this is a team that lacks serious depth. It will take a return to 2006 form and a full year of health from McFadden (read about what a healthy McFadden could mean to the fantasy community here) to drag this bunch into Wildcard contention.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record = 7-9, Last in AFC West

2012 Schedule = ATL, @ BUF, @ NO, SD, BAL, @ TB, BYE, OAK, @ SD, @ PIT, CIN, DEN, CAR, @ CLE, @ OAK, IND, @ DEN

Franchise Players = RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, T Brandon Albert, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Brandon Flowers, S Eric Berry

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Peyton Hillis, T Eric Winston
Potential Impact Rookies = Dontari Poe (Memphis) 1-11, G Jeff Allen (Illinois) 2-12

Outlook = Kansas City is loaded with solid young talent, but they’d be much more attractive if the Peyton they added this off-season was Manning instead of Hillis. Matt Cassel is the NFL equivalent of a restrictor plate on a stock car. Expect the Chiefs to be in numerous low scoring games this season that hopefully no one other than Kansas City fans will have to watch. I’ll bet on Cassel hijacking a couple of potential victories for them.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. San Diego Chargers

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC West

2012 Schedule = @ OAK, TEN, ATL, @ KC, @ NO, DEN, BYE, @ CLE, KC, @ TB, @ DEN, BAL, CIN, @ PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK

Franchise Players = QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Matthews, TE Antonio Gates, C Nick Hardwick, OLB Shaun Phillips

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, DT Aubrayo Franklin, S Atari Bigby
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) 1-18, DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) 2-17

Outlook = It’s truly incredible that A.J. Smith and Norv Turner are still employed in the Chargers organization. After squandering top-end talent for most of the past decade (including the prime years of LaDainian Tomlinson, the best runningback of the ‘00s), they finally bottomed out with a pitiful 8-8 record, squandering a chance to win the most winnable division in football. While most folks are ready to point the finger at Turner, Smith deserves most of the blame for letting a once formidable defense erode into a mid-tier unit. To San Diego’s credit, they were aggressive in the off-season, adding three solid defensive linemen through the draft and free agency. They are a defensive playmaker away (something they haven’t had since Shaun Merriman’s best seasons) from returning to their previous form.

            As for the other side of the ball, a return to their 2010 form hinges on the health of Antonio Gates and the emergence of a wide receiver. Blessed with good health for the most of his career, Gates has had foot problems each of the past two seasons. If healthy, he’s capable of putting up similar production to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. With the loss of Vincent Jackson (who other than a monster game against the Patriots last year, was way overrated), someone will need to step up to be Philip River’s main outside target. Meachem is the most likely to emerge (he was lost in the uber-deep receiving core the Saints have), but Eddie Royal and Malcolm Floyd have been valuable assets before as well.
            With all that said, the pieces are in place for the Chargers to bounce back in 2012. There isn’t a game on their schedule that you point to and say they have no chance of winning (maybe their road date at Pittsburgh, depending on high you are on the Steelers). It all boils down to whether or not Norv Turner screws it up.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7 (I’m done banking on Norv)

1. Denver Broncos

2011 Record = 8-8, First in AFC West, Lost in AFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = PIT, @ ATL, HOU, OAK, @ NE, @ SD, BYE, NO, @ CIN, @ CAR, SD, @ KC, TB, @ OAK, @ BAL, CLE, KC

Franchise Players = RB Willis McGahee, WR DeMaryius Thomas (will find this out once Manning is playing) T Ryan Clady, DE Elvis Dumervil, LB Von Miller, CB Champ Bailey

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, CB Tracy Porter
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 2-4, QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 2-25

Outlook = I don’t think anyone can honestly predict what Denver will get out of Peyton Manning this season, but let’s say the worst happens and Manning barely plays. This was a club that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback who couldn’t read defenses, work through a progression of receivers, or for that matter, throw an out or a slant. I think if Brock Osweiler is forced to play, Denver can tighten up the playbook like they did with Tebow and muddle their way to another .500 season. No Credentials will step out on a limb and say Manning will be healthy, and effective. We’ll realize that DeMaryius Thomas is actually an elite receiver, and Eric Decker isn’t bad either (click here to see what these two could do for the fantasy community with a healthy Manning). A bruising running game will be enhanced by the threat of the pass, which is something Denver never had the luxury of last season with Tebow under center. Denver even has a defense built to rush the passer, so if Manning can deliver some early leads, Von Miller and company will be able to pin their ears back and attack the quarterback. If everything clicks (which is a big if), we could be talking about the scariest team in the AFC. 

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 5-11 (can’t discount that God could hold a grudge over dumping Tebow)

No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

Rounds 2-3 of the No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft

     Here’s rounds two and three of our mock draft. My friend Ethan was again along for the ride to have the final say on odd numbered teams, while I handled the even-numbered squads. If you missed Round 1 of the mock, click here.

Team 12, aka “Just Win Baby”

Pick 13 = Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders – He probably should be trusted more based off of his breakout last season. If healthy, has top-5 RB potential in PPR leagues.

Team 11, aka “Wandering Bear”

Pick 14 = Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers – No Credentials is all in on Philip Rivers this year. If somehow you are able to draft him in the third round, there’s a good chance you will win your league.

Team 10, aka “Twinning”

Pick 15 = Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions – One of these years, Megatron is going to put up 120 receptions with 1,600 receiving yards. If Stafford stays healthy (admittedly, a huge if), 2011 could be the year.

Team 9, aka “Hair”

Pick 16 = Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – Ethan wanted to take Brady at 14 until I talked him into Rivers. Even 16 seems high to me, but ESPN’s Matthew Berry has Brady ranked at 11 on his big board.

Team 8, aka “YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME”

Pick 17 = Michael Turner, RB, Falcons – Ethan was about to have an aneurysm because Turner was still on the board, so we finally took him at 17. I’m really down on him this season. He’s had a decent three-year run, but excess weight is bound to get the best of him eventually. Turner’s stock is lowered considerably in PPR leagues, as his pass catching ability is somewhere between poor and horrendous.

FANTASY TIP 2.1 = KNOW WHAT YOUR LEAGUE’S SCORING RULES ARE – This sounds fairly straightforward, but you would be surprised how many people don’t know whether or not a passing touchdown is worth four or six points in their league. Understanding the scoring nuances of your league will allow you to adjust a player’s value accordingly going into the draft. Turner is a great example of this. He’s ranked in the top 10 right now on Yahoo!, but that ranking is based off of a non-PPR league. If you are playing in a PPR, don’t be the schmuck that drafts Michael Turner at #8.

Team 7, aka “Sponge Worthy”

Pick 18 = Drew Brees, QB, Saints – 22 interceptions last season was a major anomaly. New Orleans’ improved rushing attack should allow Brees to take better care of the ball.

Team 6, aka “F*** the Constitution”

Pick 19 = Frank Gore, RB, 49ers – Gore has this nasty habit of missing multiple games every year, but when he’s healthy there aren’t many runningbacks in PPR leagues. An improved offensive line gives Gore a shot at 2,000 total yards.

Team 5, aka “R.I.P. AIM”

Pick 20 = Steven Jackson, RB, Rams – Jackson is a solid back who has been the victim of being surrounded by shoddy talent the past three years. If Sam Bradford can take a step forward, Jackson could score double-digit touchdowns.

Team 4, aka “In My Time of Dying”

Pick 21 = Greg Jennings, WR, Packers – My favorite second tier wide receiver, Jennings will benefit greatly from the return of Jermichael Finley.

Team 3, aka “The Great White Hope”

Pick 22 = Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns – Ethan isn’t as scared of The Madden Curse as I am (check out my AFC North preview for more details).

Team 2, aka “We Support Your War on Terror”

Pick 23 = Peyton Manning, QB, Colts – Manning might be rusty the first game or two, but if he puts up numbers similar to his 2008 production (when he missed all of the preseason after having an infection in his knee), you’ll be happy at season’s end.

Team 1, aka “The Dark Knight”

Pick 24 = Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts – Wayne was a certified fantasy team assassin in 2009, but bounced back with over 100 catches last season.

Team 1, aka “The Butler”

Pick 25 = Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys – Miles managed to be productive even with Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee throwing him the ball last season, and Roy Williams lining up on the opposite side of the field. With a healthy Romo, and Dez Bryant as the full-time #2, expect big things. I should also note that I lobbied for my son to be named Miles, so you should take any No Credentials advice about him with a grain of salt.
Current Roster = RB Adrian Peterson, WR Reggie Wayne, WR Miles Austin

Team 2, aka “I Need a Post-Up Game”

Pick 26 = Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants – I’m not all-in on the Nicks bandwagon, but he will have a chance to crack 90 receptions with the other Steve Smith out of town.
Current Roster = RB Jamaal Charles, QB Peyton Manning, WR Hakeem Nicks

Team 3, aka “The High Life”

Pick 27 = Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars – Ethan was adamant that this team should draft a third runningback at this point. I probably replaced him after this pick, but we’ll see how a team built around three backs will do.
Current Roster = RB Arian Foster, RB Peyton Hillis, RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Team 4, aka “Good Times Bad Times”

Pick 28 = Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers – A full-year of Jackson (his first in the post-Tomlinson era) could be huge. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ends up as the most valuable receiver in fantasy. In retrospect, I would’ve signed off on him going at 21 instead of Jennings.
Current Roster = QB Michael Vick, WR Greg Jennings, WR Vincent Jackson

Team 5, aka “That’s My Quarterback (sniffle, sniffle)”

Pick 29 = Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys – The last of the elite fantasy quarterbacks (emphasis on fantasy) comes off the board.
Current Roster = RB Chris Johnson, RB Steven Jackson, QB Tony Romo

Team 6, aka “Job Security”

Pick 30 = Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers – When healthy, Gates is far and away the best tight end in the game. In retrospect, it would make more sense for a team with one of the elite seven QBs to draft him (as it’s much easier to come up with a runningback or wide receiver who emerges either late in the draft or off the waiver wire).
Current Roster = WR Andre Johnson, RB Frank Gore, TE Antonio Gates

Team 7, aka “60 Minutes”

Pick 31 = Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers – No Credentials hasn’t liked a Steelers’ wide receiver this much since Yancey Thigpen in 1995. I wrote during round 1 of the mock that I think Pittsburgh will run the ball more this season, but that won’t hurt Wallace at all. If anything, that will option up a few play-action fly patterns for Wallace to run.
Current Roster = RB Ray Rice, QB Drew Brees, WR Mike Wallace

Team 8, aka “Krayzee Eyez Killah”

Pick 32 = Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs – I’m not crazy about Bowe this season (mostly due to his quarterback, read the AFC West preview for more details), but Bowe will go sometime in the third round in all drafts. You shouldn’t expect him to duplicate 2010’s touchdown total, but he could increase his receptions.
Current Roster = QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Michael Turner, WR Dwayne Bowe

Team 9, aka “The Enigma”

Pick 33 = Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys – The first risky/reckless/hardcore homer pick of the No Credentials mock. As long as Bryant stays away from malls, Bryant is a lock to score 10 touchdowns (or more) this season.
Current Roster = RB LeSean McCoy, QB Tom Brady, WR Dez Bryant

FANTASY TIP 2.2 = ONE HOMER PICK IS OKAY, TWO OR MORE IS A PROBLEM – Having one guy off of your fantasy team is fine in my book, but two or more can frustrate the hell out of you. A couple of years ago I had one team that had Romo, Marion Barber (who I traded for), Jason Witten (who I also traded for), and Miles Austin (who I picked up off the free agent list after he torched Kansas City for 250 yards). Things were going just fine with this set-up until Dallas traveled to Green Bay, and those four players scored a combined 13 fantasy points. It was brutal. Not only did my real life favorite football team embarrass itself, it also caused my fantasy team to be an embarrassment. From then forward I vowed not to invest too heavily into the Cowboys.

Team 10, aka “Herbal Frontier”

Pick 34 = Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants – I’m not crazy about Bradshaw, but he’s a solid PPR runningback who should continue to see the bulk of the carries as Brandon Jacobs continues to slow down.
Current Roster = WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Calvin Johnson, RB Ahmad Bradshaw

Team 11, aka “Cougar Hunters”

Pick 35 = DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles – The best home run hitter in the NFL, Jackson will have monster games and dud games throughout the season. Just know that going in before you take him.
Current Roster = WR Roddy White, QB Philip Rivers, WR DeSean Jackson

Team 12, aka “Ward Burton”

Pick 36 = Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins – I talked myself and Ethan into reaching on Marshall because I really believe that his head will be in the right place know that he’s properly medicated, but quarterback situation in Miami (barring a miracle trade to bring in Carson Palmer) will hurt his production. Marshall probably should’ve gone ten or fifteen picks later.
Current Roster = RB Rashard Mendenhall, RB Darren McFadden, WR Brandon Marshall

2011 AFC West Preview

            Here is the second No Credentials Division Preview. If it weren’t for San Diego, this division would be almost as putrid as the NFC West.

4. Oakland Raiders

2010 Record = 8-8, 3^rd in Division
Key Additions = None
Key Losses = CB Nnamdi Asomugha, TE Zach Miller, G Robert Gallery, possibly DT John Henderson (still unsigned)

Schedule = @ Broncos, @ Bills, Jets, Patriots, @ Texans, Browns, Chiefs, BYE, Broncos, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, @ Dolphins, @ Packers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Chargers

Real-Life Outlook = Oakland was a surprisingly spunky team last season that actually scored 37 more points than their opponents. Their strengths were a powerful running game (led by Darren McFadden, who finally showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of Arkansas) and a solid defense that kept them in games. The running game is intact, but the defense will be a shell of it’s former self. Asomugha took out the best wide receiver week in and week out, allowing the rest of the defense to focus on the other half of the field. With him gone, it’s going to be much easier for opposing quarterbacks to operate. A leaky defense will put the offense in deeper holes forcing quarterback Jason Campbell to make plays. Ask Redskins fans how things turn out  when you need a play from Jason Campbell. This is another candidate for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Fantasy Outlook = McFadden is currently the tenth runningback being taken in Yahoo! drafts, which is just about right. I like him more than Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew this year in PPR leagues. No one else offensively is worth being drafted, although you should monitor the performance of Oakland wide receivers early in the season. TE Zach Miller is gone, leaving roughly 60 passes up for grabs. Keep an eye on Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Ceiling = 7-9
Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12

3. Denver Broncos

 

2010 Record = 4-12, 4^th in Division
Key Additions = RB Willis McGahee
Key Losses = T Ryan Harris

Schedule = Raiders, Bengals, @ Titans, @ Packers, Chargers, BYE, @ Dolphins, Lions, @ Raiders, @ Chiefs, Jets, @ Chargers, @ Vikings, Bears, Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs

Real-Life Outlook = John Fox has made a career out of getting the most out of rosters (the guy did coach a team that had Jake Delhomme playing quarterback all the way to the Super Bowl one year), and this season should be no different. Unfortunately, that means he will be lucky to squeeze 6 wins out of a roster that should only generate three. The defense still has holes, but they can’t play any worse than they did last season. 
Fantasy Outlook = Kyle Orton is nothing more than a fantasy backup at best. Denver will not throw the ball nearly as much as they did when Josh McDaniels was calling the plays. If Knowshon Moreno is ever to do anything in the NFL, this is the season he needs to do it. He will be the lead back in a run first offense. Brandon Lloyd will still be productive (as long as Tebow is off the field), but don't expect him to pile up the same amount of yards he did last season. I expect him to settle somewhere around the 1,100 range, with 8 touchdowns.

Ceiling = 9-7
Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

2. Kansas City Chiefs

2010 Record = 10-6, 1^st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Ravens)
Key Additions = T Jared Gaither, WR Steve Breaston
Key Losses = None

Schedule = Bills, @ Lions, @ Chargers, Vikings, @ Colts, BYE, @ Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins, Broncos, @ Patriots, Steelers, @ Bears, @ Jets, Packers, Raiders, @ Broncos

Real-Life Outlook = A whole lot of things went right for Kansas City last year until they were crushed at home in the playoffs. Jamaal Charles emerged as the next great fantasy runningback (more on that in the next section), while Thomas Jones spelled him effectively. Buoyed by their young secondary, the Chiefs defense was as solid as it has been since the Marty Schottenheimer era. Most importantly, Matt Cassel was competent enough that he didn’t derail the Chiefs division-winning season.
            Looking ahead, I think Cassel is what’s going to hold this team back. His ability to throw the ball downfield is sub-par at best (the guy couldn’t even figure out how to complete a bomb to Randy Moss when Moss was still in his prime), and his poor pocket awareness will undo the team against a much harder schedule. Last year, Kansas City got to play the entire NFC West. This year, they face the NFC North. You could argue that all four NFC North teams are better than any team in the West. Kansas City won’t be able to run the ball 65% of the time to protect Cassel. 
Fantasy Outlook = Even though I just bashed him in the last paragraph, Cassel is a decent back-up QB option to target late. Assuming he’s still healthy going into week 16, his match-up against Oakland will be one of the best ones any quarterback will have during the championship week of most fantasy leagues. On average, Jamaal Charles is the 5^th pick in all Yahoo! drafts. I fully endorse taking him over any other runningback not named Adrian Peterson. Dwayne Bowe is the 10^th wide receiver being taken in most drafts. He can be lazy at times (name me a wide receiver that isn’t), but he should be able to deliver at least 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense is borderline start-able, but keep in mind that they have a much tougher schedule. You won’t want anything to do with them when they play the Colts, Patriots, or Packers.

Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. San Diego Chargers

2010 Record = 9-7, 2^nd in Division
Key Additions = LB Takeo Spikes
Key Losses = RB Darren Sproles, LB Kevin Burnett

Schedule = Vikings, @ Patriots, Chiefs, Dolphins, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Jets, @ Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Jaguars, Bills, Ravens, @ Lions, @ Raiders

Real-Life Outlook = San Diego’s 2011 season was one of the strangest in league history. Philip Rivers led the offense to score 441 points, a total only topped by the Patriots. The defense held opponents to 322, good for 9^th. However, costly turnovers crippled them, and the team with the 5^th best point differential in the league missed the playoffs.
            One could argue that last season was a fluke, and San Diego should rebound to post a double-digit win campaign. The only strong argument against this is Norv Turner still filling the role of Head Coach. Norv is a fantastic offensive coordinator (he filled that role for the 1992 and 1993 Super Bowl Champion Dallas Cowboys), but has consistently come up flat as a headman. I trust him just enough to lead this team to a division title, but won’t be putting any money on Norv once the calendar hits January of 2012.  
Fantasy Outlook = Philip Rivers is one of the six elite fantasy QBs. Currently going at the start of the 3^rd round in 12-team leagues, Rivers should continue to pile up yards and touchdowns this season. I would take him over Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady this season. Ryan Matthews was a dud last year, but certainly has plenty of post-hype sleeper potential. Antonio Gates is the most dominant fantasy tight end in the game. If you have a chance to take him at any point in the 4^th round, do it, even with concerns about his ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis. Vincent Jackson will be on board for the entire season, and is capable of producing #1 receiver numbers. He’s currently the 13^th wide-out coming off the board. Also watch out for whoever emerges as the #2 receiver. With as much as San Diego throws the ball, there is enough room for Gates, Jackson, and another receiver to go over 1,000 yards. Lastly, San Diego’s defense will be worthy of starting virtually every week.

Ceiling = 14-2
Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

Click the links below to read about

the AFC North
the AFC South
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West