Pre-Season Fantasy Football TE Ranks

           Last year was hyped as the deepest crop of useful fantasy tight ends in history. This year, not so much. Aaron Hernandez…well, I don’t need to tell you what happened to him (just know he was ranked second on this list before his legal troubles). Rob Gronkowski…I don’t have to talk about him either. Two thirds of the top tight end tier has been reduced to rubble (along with the dominance of the New England Patriots offense, but we will save that conversation for another day). We don’t need to publish a value adjusted ranking at the end here, as my personal values of players will not be impacted by the draft pick I need to spend on them.

Tier 1 – The Last Man Standing

1	J.Graham, Saints

This is a rule that if you have designs on winning your fantasy league, you have to live by…if you have the chance to draft Jimmy Graham in the third round, you do it. No questions asked. His average draft spot is 18.5, which puts him towards the end of the second in ten team leagues. If I still have a shot at a Tier 3 runningback with my third round pick, I’d make the plunge in the second.

            For those wondering why Graham is such a valuable commodity, you must consider two things. One, he’s going to produce like Tier 2 or 3 wide receiver. Secondly, there isn’t a safer bet at tight end to produce at that level than Graham. Getting the scoring output he generates on a week-to-week basis at a week position is a tremendous advantage.

Tier 2 – The Lottery Ticket

2	R.Gronkowski, Patriots

If healthy, there isn’t a safer bet for 15 touchdown receptions in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE than Rob Gronkowski. The problem is his bones are made of Swiss cheese. If you nail your first four picks, and one of them isn’t Jimmy Graham, I fully endorse drafting Gronk. Even if he doesn’t make his debut until Week 6, he can still win your fantasy league for you. If he isn’t healthy for the fantasy playoffs, there’s always next year.

Tier 3 – Old Reliables

3	J.Witten, Cowboys
4	T.Gonzalez, Falcons

These are you safe sixth round picks if you miss out on the Rob Gronkowski sweepstakes. Witten might be worth a fifth round pick if you’re playing in a PPR league.

Tier 4 – Solid Contributors

5	V.Davis, 49ers
6	D.Pitta, Ravens
7	G.Olsen, Panthers
8	A.Gates, Chargers

There’s a decent chance that one of these guys will end up as the second highest scoring tight end in fantasy this season, but good luck picking which one will do it. Davis presents the best opportunity for a monster year, as it looks like he’ll line up at wide receiver while Michael Crabtree is on the shelf.

Tier 5 – Inconsistent Commodities

9	O.Daniels, Texans
10	B.Myers, Giants
11	J.Finley, Packers
12	J.Cook, Rams
13	K.Rudolph, Vikings
14	M.Bennett, Bears

Just as likely to score you 15 points as they are to score 1, this group of tight ends will drive you absolutely bonkers if you own one of them.

Tier 6 – Sleepers and Bye Week Subs

15	J.Gresham, Bengals
16	B.Pettigrew, Lions
17	F.Davis, Redskins
18	R.Housler, Cardinals
19	D.Allen, Colts
20	J.Cameron, Browns
21	D.Keller, Dolphins
22	Z.Miller, Seahawks
23	H.Miller, Steelers
24	D.Walker, Titans
25	B.Celek, Eagles

 
          None of these guys should be drafted unless you are in a twelve-team league, and even then I don’t think I’d take the plunge. All of these guys should be considered as bye week pickups, but a couple warrant keeping tabs on early in the season. Fred Davis is always productive when he’s healthy, but the problem is he’s never healthy. Rob Housler has generated preseason buzz, and of all the Cardinals not named Larry Fitzgerald, should benefit the most from having an adequate NFL quarterback.

Cheer Up Boston

            It’s been a rough week for New Englanders, which isn’t good when you’re talking about a group of people that either bitch about the winter cold or complain about the summer heat. No Credentials has taken some time to analyze all of it’s local sports teams (for those not in the know, this blog is based out of the woods of New Hampshire) to determine which ones we should panic about, and which clubs we should take a deep breath and look ahead to the future.

New England Patriots

What Happened = Aaron Hernandez (who was going to be ranked #3 among all tight ends in No Credentials soon to be released fantasy football rankings) was cut, and Rob Gronkowski appears destined for the PUP List.

Reason For Panic = New England’s offense was literally built around their two dynamic tight ends. Add the loss of Wes Welker, and this looks like Tom Brady’s worst receiving corps since 2006. Brady averaged 3,593 yards and 25 touchdowns from 2001 through 2006 (not bad numbers, but not the elite level we’ve seen since 2007), so a regression to those stats is likely. Barring an unexpected development, this won’t be a team capable of dropping 50 points in a given week.

Reason for Optimism = Stephen Ridley led a rejuvenated Patriots ground game (New England hadn’t been that effective on the ground since Corey Dillon’s debut season with the Pats in 2004), so the possibility exists that the offense can be shifted to a more run dominant scheme. Throw in an improved defense, and the luxury of playing in the worst division in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and even without elite receiving threats this team should be able to bang out a 10-6, AFC East winning season.

Panic or Optimism? = PANIC

            Tom Brady’s 36, so wasting a year with marginal receiving talent is a shame. Danny Amendola provides the opportunity to fill the Welker void (if he can stay on the field), but it will take an incredible rookie debut by Aaron Dobson for the Patriots to be a true Super Bowl contender. They’ll win the shoddy AFC East before getting destroyed in the Wild Card round.



 

Boston Celtics

What Happened = Doc Rivers successfully abandoned the ship, making his way to the Clippers in an exchange for draft picks. Even more depressing, Boston traded both Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce (along with Jason Terry, but he sucked last year) to Brooklyn for a package that is best described as a poop sandwich (unless the Nets suck sometime between 2016 and 2018, which could happen). Lastly, it is rumored that Boston has been in serious discussions with the Dallas Mavericks about a trade that would ship Rajon Rondo out of town.

Reason for Panic = The Celtics are going to suck ass next season, and maybe the year after that…and possibly the year after that.

Reason for Optimism = What good is it to struggle to be the seventh or eighth seed every year, when instead you can bottom out and potentially land a franchise player in the draft? Andrew Wiggins has the look of a franchise player, and his presence in next years draft will lead to the first NBA Tankapalooza since the 2007 Oden/Durant class (for those not in the know, “NBA Tankapalooza” is one at five of the teams in the league blatantly try to blow as many games as possible to ensure they have the best chance in the lottery at the first pick in the draft). If Boston misses out on Wiggins, they can keep tanking every following year until they finally land a franchise player. The Celtics have never been able to attract A-level free agents, so the only way for Danny Ainge to get Boston back to a championship level is through the draft. If the ping-pong balls fall the right way next June, Boston could be making a title run in 2017, which is something you couldn’t say about the Rondo-Garnett-Pierce core.

Panic or Optimism? = PANIC, with a hint of optimism

            A hyper-competitive Celtics team has spoiled us the past five years. Win or lose, they always made a championship effort in the biggest moments. Logically though, blowing it up is the right thing to do. Remember that when Jeff Green is shooting 35% next year.

 

Boston Bruins

What Happened = Holding a 2-1 lead with roughly a minute and a half to go, Boston surrendered two goals in 17 seconds, squandering the opportunity to force a Game 7 in Chicago.

Reason for Panic = Allowing two goals in 17 seconds is really hard to do. Doing it in the deciding game of the Stanley Cup Finals is ridiculous.

Reason for Optimism = Boston wasn’t overwhelming favorites to win the Stanley Cup (the Blackhawks started the season with 24 straight games of registering at least one point. They were the best team), so it’s not like they gave away a certain championship like the Spurs did. Furthermore, the team is still young. Development by their young stars, in particular Tyler Seguin, will keep the Bruins in Stanley Cup contention for years to come.

Panic or Optimism? = OPTIMISM

             While the way they gave away Game 6 was devastating, the Bruins appear to have the emotional fortitude to bounce back from such an event (remember they blew a 3-0 series lead against the Flyers in 2010, and then bounced back to win the Stanley Cup the next year). They will be fine.

 

Boston Red Sox

 

What Happened = After a disastrous 2012, the Red Sox have the best record in the American League at the halfway point of the season.

Reason for Panic = David Ortiz took a ton of steroids while he was injured worked really hard this off season to return to MVP form, so one has to wonder how long it will be before he’s suspended by MLB cools off.

Reason for Optimism = What a difference a year makes. The return of John Farrell to the organization has done a world of wonders to the likes of Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, and John Lackey. They are second in the league in run differential at a +80 (the Yankees are a –16. Yankees suck), and lead MLB in runs scored. Tampa Bay might track them down eventually for the division, but the Red Sox will return to postseason baseball for the first time since 2009.

Panic or Optimism? = OPTIMISM

               It’s fitting that the team only a year ago I would’ve voted as the worst of all the major pro sports franchises in New England has done a compete 180. Boston’s farm system still needs to be restocked, but that’s just picking nits. The return of the Red Sox to relevance is the one thing New Englanders can hang their hat on.