2014 AFC East Preview

            Our first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).



4. New York Jets

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Raiders, @ Packers, Bears, Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @ Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison
Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson
Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville), TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)

Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will take a snap under center.

Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?

Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East, the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets into playoff contention. 

Prediction = We’re guessing the defense will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it should’ve been last year. 5-11

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders (London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @ Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets

Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake

High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy Starks, CB Brent Grimes
Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay, DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones
Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee), WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)

Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb plays.

Bad News = Junior bully Mike Pouncey will miss at least the first half of the season.

Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge. There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively, Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance. Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the league.

Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9

2. Buffalo Bills

2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @ Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets, Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots

Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams

High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell Dareus
Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson, DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes
Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)

Good News = They will return their entire pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.

Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.

Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them. Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.

Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7

1. New England Patriots

2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC Championship Game
2014 Schedule = @ Dolphins, @ Vikings, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills

Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, FS Devin McCourty

High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder, RT Sebastian Vollmer
Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins
Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern Illinois)

Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while) Week 1.

Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide receiver core.

Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high quality status by the end of the season.

            Offensively New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also proven capable at times.

Prediction = Dobson takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3

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2013 AFC East Preview

            Our third annual NFL division preview series begins with the division nearest and dearest to the hearts of the majority of my readers (all five of them).

4. New York Jets

 

2012 Record = 6-10, third in AFC East

2013 Schedule = Buccaneers, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Titans, @ Falcons, Steelers, Patriots, @ Bengals, Saints, BYE, @ Bills, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Raiders, @ Panthers, Browns, @ Dolphins

Franchise Players = LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Antonio Cromartie

Supporting Cast = RB Chris Ivory, WR Santonio Holmes, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, MLB David Harris
Notable Rookies = CB Dee Milliner (Alabama, 1-9), DT Sheldon Richardson (Missouri, 1-13), QB Geno Smith (West Virginia, 2-39)

Offensive Outlook = Much like Kevin James, the Mark Sanchez-Rex Ryan duo has been around way too long. Fortunately for Jets fans, Geno Smith appears to have the inside track on the quarterback gig. I don’t expect either quarterback to set the world on fire, but at least Smith would offer a glimmer of hope for the future. Neither quarterback will have the benefit of an average receiving core, with only Stephen Hill offering the upside of a #1 receiver. Santonio Holmes is coming off major foot surgery, so to expect a return to peak performance from him is asking a lot. Chris Ivory has finally been released from the “five-back-pileup” system in New Orleans, and will get the chance to shoulder a full-time workload. The offensive line is still solid, so barring injury (which was a common occurrence during Ivory’s time with the Saints), we could be looking at 1,200 yards and eight to ten touchdowns.

Defensive Outlook = Typically, it’s not a good thing for a defense when they trade away the most dominant cornerback in the NFL, but the Jets did make the best long term decision when they shipped Darrelle Revis to Tampa Bay. It would make no sense to pay Revis big-time money on a rebuilding team, and their first two draft picks are fantastic building blocks. There’s enough defensive talent for New York to steal some ugly 14-10 type games.
        
Ceiling =  9-7 - This would take an epic debut season by Ivory, and a defensive effort reminiscent of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. We’ll give this a 1% chance of happening.
Floor = 2-14 - You know who the quarterbacks are right? We'll give this a 30% chance of happening. 
Prediction = 5-11
            I like the moves they made to begin rejuvenating the defense, but it will be another year before they can blow up the offense.

3. Buffalo Bills

 

2012 Record = 6-10, fourth in AFC East

2013 Schedule = Patriots, Panthers, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Dolphins, @ Saints, Chiefs, @ Steelers, Jets, BYE, Falcons, @ Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, Dolphins, @ Patriots

Franchise Players = RB C.J. Spiller, DE Mario Williams, DT Kyle Williams, DT Marcell Dareus, FS Jairus Byrd

Supporting Cast = WR Stevie Johnson, C Eric Wood, CB/KR Leodis McKelvin
Notable Rookies = QB E.J. Manuel (Florida State, 1-16), WR Robert Woods (USC, 2-41), MLB Kiko Alonso (Oregon, 2-46)

Offensive Outlook = After years of not fully understanding the talent they possessed, C.J. Spiller will finally get the keys to a full-time featured back role. He only needed 207 carries to crack the 1,200-yard barrier, so a workload closer to 300 should raise his production to an elite level. It’s concerning that standout guard Andy Levitre left for Tennessee, but Spiller has enough ability to overcome it. Stevie Johnson is a solid but unspectacular wide receiver whose production will be directly tied to his quarterback. Kevin Kolb isn’t the second coming of Jim Kelly (or for that matter, Doug Flutie), but the offense will function better with him under center than rookie E.J. Manuel. Ideally, Buffalo’s surprise first round pick spends a year watching from the sidelines, but if Kolb keeps tripping on rubber mats, Manuel will be forced to the field from the get go.

Defensive Outlook = For a unit that features four blue-chip players, this defense was dreadful last season. However, they only surrendered more than 24 points once during the final seven weeks of the season. A large part of that late season improvement can be attributed to Mario Williams, who played much better as a wrist injury healed during the season. Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus form the most talented DT-duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The middle layer of the defense was a major weakness, as Buffalo’s linebackers were unable to take advantage of the defensive line’s efforts. If Kiko Alonso can keep his head on straight, he presents the Bills best chance to raise its defense to a top-12 level.

Ceiling = 11-5 – Double digit wins sounds like a stretch (mostly because it is), but when you look at the slate of road games, none of them jumps out as un-winnable (even their Week 17 game at New England. The Patriots could be resting for the playoffs at that point).

Floor = 2-14 – We’ll call this “the too much E.J. Manuel” scenario.
Prediction = 6-10
            Until Buffalo generates stable production from the quarterback position, I’m not endorsing them for a .500 season.

2. Miami Dolphins

 

2012 Record = 7-9, second in AFC East

2013 Schedule = @ Browns, @ Colts, Falcons, @ Saints, Ravens, Bills, @ Patriots, Bengals, BYE, @ Buccaneers, Chargers, Panthers, @ Jets, @ Steelers, Patriots, @ Bills, Jets

Franchise Players = WR Mike Wallace, C Mike Pouncey, DE Cameron Wake, DT Randy Starks

Supporting Cast = QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Lamar Miller, WR Brian Hartline, LG Richie Incognito, RT Tyson Clabo, DT Paul Soliai, MLB Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes, SS Reshad Jones, KR Marcus Thigpen
Notable Rookies = OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon, 1-3), CB Jamar Taylor (Boise State, 2-54, RB Mike Gillislee (Florida, 5-164)

Offensive Outlook = It’s early in our preview series, but we will be hard pressed to find a team who’s fate is more tied to the production of one player than the Miami Dolphins. All of the pieces are here for Miami to leapfrog New England in the AFC East, but they need development from Ryan Tannehill in order to do it. He has an elite deep threat in the form of Mike Williams (who despite the fact that he’s grossly overpaid, he will still have to be accounted for by opposing defenses on every snap), a solid possession receiver with Brian Hartline, and a decent upgrade at tight end with Dustin Keller. Lamar Miller appears poised to seize the starting role, and could be in line for a breakout season. The loss of Jake Long is worrisome (it’s generally not a good thing to lose a franchise left tackle), but Miami patched the line effectively enough with the addition of former Falcon Tyson Clabo. If Tannehill produces at even just a Joe Flacco like level (regular season Flacco, not postseason), the Dolphins will make the playoffs.

Defensive Outlook = In today’s NFL, rushing the passer is key, and few clubs do it better than the Miami Dolphins. Cameron Wake generated a career high 15 sacks, and the addition of rookie Dion Jordan gives Miami the chance to have two elite edge rushers. Dannell Ellerbe is huge upgrade at middle linebacker, and he’ll provide a lift to a defense that didn’t always take advantage of the efforts of their defensive tackles. Brent Grimes isn’t the second coming of Rod Woodson (pre-safety years for you kids that don’t remember him on the Steelers), but assuming he’s healthy after early ACL surgery last year, he’s an upgrade. 

Ceiling = 13-3 – If this happens, Ryan Tannehill will be the most valuable waiver wire pickup in fantasy football.

Floor = 5-11 – If this happens, Miami will be looking for a new quarterback in 2014.
Prediction = 9-7
            The schedule breaks really well for the Dolphins (catching a down AFC North is the only reason I have Miami above .500), and assuming Tannehill isn’t abysmal, there’s enough talent on defense to carry Miami to wildcard contention.
 

1. New England Patriots

2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC East, lost AFC Championship Game to Ravens

2013 Schedule = @ Bills, Jets, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, @ Bengals, Saints, @ Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, BYE, @ Panthers, Broncos, @ Texans, Browns, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Bills

Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, LT Nate Solder, LG Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo

Supporting Cast = RB Stevan Ridley, WR Danny Amendola, S Ryan Wendell, RT Sebastian Vollmer, DT Tommy Kelly, MLB Brandon Spikes, OLB Dont’a Hightower, CB Aqib Talib, FS Devin McCourty

Notable Rookies = OLB Jamie Collins (Southern Mississippi, 2-52), WR Aaron Dobson (Marshall, 2-59)

Offensive Outlook = When your offense is built around one tight end who is a likely PUP list member and another who’s in jail because he’s involved with multiple murders, that’s a problem. Fortunately for New England, the cupboard isn’t bare. They still have Tom Brady (and quite frankly, that’s all you need), and the best offensive line the Patriots have ever had in the Belichick era protects him. If Stevan Ridley can correct a recurring case of fumbleitis, he’ll have an outside shot at 1,600 yards. Shane Vereen is also a talented back who is an asset in the passing game. Receivers are where the question marks begin. Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant red zone target in the game, but how many games he suits up for is what will determine his impact. Ultimately, the Patriots should only need a healthy Gronkowski for the playoffs. Danny Amendola has all of the physical tools to fill Wes Welker’s role, but his total number of games missed isn’t inspiring either. Aaron Dobson is the biggest lottery ticket on the Patriots roster. If he can grasp the playbook, he’ll be the most dominant wide receiver in the AFC East.  

Defensive Outlook = It might not be as stout as the 2003 edition, but this year’s defense is the best one Belichick has had since there second Super Bowl winning year. They might have the deepest linebacking core in the AFC, and the edition of Tommy Kelly to play alongside Vince Wilfork will only their run defense. Aqib Talib stabilized the secondary immediately upon arriving in New England via a midseason trade, and one could safely bet on him being even better after a full Patriots training camp. New England is a dominant pass rusher away (I’m looking at you Chandler Jones) from fielding a top-5 defense.

Ceiling = 14-2 – This scenario will need a healthy Gronkowski, a rookie of the year campaign from Dobson, and a 12-sack season from Jones.

Floor = 8-8 – Only will occur if the offense can’t find its way and the Dolphins and Bills play to their potential.
Prediction = 11-5
            There’s been a ton of gloom and doom surrounding the Patriots (understandably so. Not even the mid-90s Dallas Cowboys ever dealt with a distraction like the Pats are faced with this off-season), but it’s important to take a step back and look at the larger landscape. As you probably could tell by looking at the other three teams in this preview, there’s a fair chance the Patriots will be the only good team in the division. As you will see in the next three AFC division previews, there’s a high probability that most of the conference stinks too. There’s only one team in the AFC I’d rate ahead of the Patriots. They might not be pretty at times (especially early in the season), but I expect New England to end up with a first round bye when it’s all said and done.


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