Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts

Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW
P.Goldschmidt, ARI
A.Rizzo, CHC
J.Bautista, TOR OF
M.Cabrera, DET 3B
E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL
A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B
P.Fielder, TEX
B.Posey, SF C
D.Ortiz, BOS
A.Pujols, LAA
V.Martinez, DET
J.Lucroy, MIL C
C.Santana, CLE C-3B
J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B
C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL
E.Hosmer, KC
R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF
B.Moss, CLE OF
S.Pearce, BAL OF
L.Duda, NYM
M.Trumbo, ARI OF
A.LaRoche, CHW
C.Headley, NYY 3B
M.Napoli, BOS
M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Final Rosters

            Due to the early regular season games being played in Australia, most of you should be drafting (or bidding on) players within the next week. To that end, we want to publish the entire 2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft here today. We’ll highlight some interesting picks from rounds we didn’t previously cover for each team.

PO
1
C
Y.Molina, STL (8-80)
1B
E.Hosmer, KC (6-60)
2B
J.Kipnis, CLE (3-21)
3B
M.Cabrera, DET (1-1) 1B
SS
A.Simmons, ATL (14-140)
OF
S.Choo, TEX (4-40)
OF
H.Pence, SF (7-61)
OF
J.Werth, WAS (10-100)
UT
A.Soriano, NYY (13-121) OF
UT
C.Headley, SD (17-161) 3B
SP
Y.Darvish, TEX (2-20)
SP
C.Sale, CHW (5-41)
RP
K.Uehara, BOS (9-81)
RP
D.Robertson, NYY (12-120)
P
M.Tanaka, NYY (11-101) SP
P
T.Cingrani, CIN (15-141) SP
P
B.Parnell, NYM (16-160) RP
BN
A.Cashner, SD (18-180) SP
BN
C.Yelich, MIA, (19-181) OF
BN
J.Villar, HOU (20-200) SS
BN
J.Samardzija, CHC (21-201) SP
BN
K.Wong, STL (22-220) 2B
BN
T.Hunter, BAL (23-221) RP
BN
T.Ross, SD (24-240) SP-RP
BN
N.Markakis, BAL (25-241) OF

            Waiting on the outfield was the right move here, as Hunter Pence and Jayson Werth are both capable of delivering top-50 value. Expecting Alfonso Soriano to repeat his second half performance from last year over a full season is unrealistic, but round 13 isn’t a bad spot to make a low-risk wager. Chase Headley is only two years removed from a 2012 campaign where he delivered top-20 value, and is well worth a late round pick. Jeff Samardzija is one of the cheapest sources of elite strikeout totals in fantasy.

PO
2
C
W.Rosario, COL (12-119)
1B
E.Encarnacion, TOR (2-19) 3B
2B
M.Carpenter, STL (6-59) 3B
3B
J.Donaldson, OAK (8-79)
SS
A.Cabrera, CLE (13-122)
OF
M.Trout, LAA (1-2)
OF
Y.Puig, LAD (3-22)
OF
A.Rios, TEX (5-42)
UT
A.Rizzo, CHC (15-142) 1B
UT
J.Profar, TEX (16-159) 2B-3B-SS
SP
D.Price, TB (4-39)
SP
G.Cole, PIT (7-62)
RP
S.Romo, SF (10-99)
RP
J.Henderson, MIL (14-139)
P
M.Minor, ATL (9-82) SP
P
A.Cobb, TB (11-102) SP
P
C.Crawford, LAD (17-162) OF
BN
B.Buxton, MIN (18-179) OF
BN
B.Beachy, ATL (19-182) SP
BN
J.Soria, TEX (20-199) RP
BN
J.Parker, OAK (21-202) SP
BN
R.Howard, PHI (22-219) 1B
BN
D.Fister, WAS (23-222) SP
BN
B.Upton, ATL (24-239) OF
BN
J.Peavy, BOS (25-242) SP

            Normally we don’t recommend making selections based on expected run production, but Matt Carpenter is an exception. This roster is loaded with young talent that has the potential to breakout. We wouldn’t be shocked to see Rizzo or Profar make a leap, and Byron Buxton will be the most anticipated mid-season call-up of the year. One of the Cole-Minor-Cobb trio should make the jump to ace status in 2014, with our money on Gerrit Cole establishing himself as the ace of the Pirates staff.

PO
3
C
S.Perez, KC (14-138)
1B
P.Goldschmidt, ARI (1-3)
2B
J.Altuve, HOU (9-83)
3B
D.Wright, NYM (2-18)
SS
E.Cabrera, SD (12-118)
OF
G.Stanton, MIA (3-23)
OF
B.Hamilton, CIN (6-58)
OF
S.Victorino, BOS (10-98)
UT
A.Gordon, KC (11-103) OF
UT
V.Martinez, DET (16-158) 1B
SP
M.Bumgarner, SF (4-38)
SP
Z.Greinke, LAD (5-43)
RP
K.Jansen, LAD (7-63)
RP
N.Feliz, TEX (15-143)
P
J.Shields, KC (8-78) SP
P
K.Medlen, ATL (13-123) SP
P
N.Jones, CHW (17-163) RP
BN
J.Crain, HOU (18-178) RP
BN
J.Lowrie, OAK (19-183) 2B-SS
BN
M.Estrada, MIL (20-198) SP
BN
W.Middlebrooks, BOS (21-203) 3B
BN
M.Brantley, CLE (22-218) OF
BN
C.Wilson, TEX (23-223) SP
BN
S.Kazmir, OAK (24-238) SP
BN
C.Carter, HOU (25-243) 1B-OF

            If Billy Hamilton steals 80 bases, but does nothing else, will that be worth a sixth round pick? In redraft leagues, my gut says no. Victor Martinez is an interesting buy-low candidate, as he is poised to hit behind Miguel Cabrera. Neftali Feliz was one of the ten best closers in the game before an attempt to become a starting pitcher followed by Tommy John surgery. He isn’t a lock to hold off Joakim Soria for the gig, but if he returns to his old form, round 15 is a major discount for what his upside is. Marco Estrada was a disaster in the first half last year, but a repeat of his second half performance would catapult him into a top-20 starting pitcher. Chris Carter will hit .260 with 50 home runs one year, and round 25 is the perfect time to see if this year is it. Kris Medlen was picked long before his elbow troubles became public, so leave him off of your draft boards.

PO
4
C
B.McCann, NYY (11-104)
1B
J.Votto, CIN (2-17)
2B
R.Cano, SEA (1-4)
3B
E.Longoria, TB (3-24)
SS
J.Segura, MIL (4-37)
OF
M.Kemp, LAD (6-57)
OF
J.Hamilton, LAA (9-84)
OF
M.Cuddyer, COL (12-117) 1B
UT
J.Abreu, CHW (14-137) 1B
UT
L.Martin, TEX (15-144) OF
SP
C.Hamels, PHI (5-44)
SP
G.Gonzalez, WAS (7-64)
RP
G.Holland, KC (8-77)
RP
A.Reed, ARI (13-124)
P
M.Cain, SF (10-97) SP
P
J.Veras, CHC (16-157) RP
P
A.Burnett, PHI (17-164) SP
BN
J.Masterson, CLE (18-177) SP
BN
M.Franco, PHI (19-184) 3B
BN
J.Benoit, SD (20-197) RP
BN
J.Baez, CHC (21-204) SS
BN
A.De Aza, CHW (22-217) OF
BN
E.Santana, KC (23-224) SP
BN
K.Johnson, NYY (24-237) 2B-3B-OF
BN
A.Griffin, OAK (25-244) SP

            It’s becoming harder to remember that Matt Kemp was once the most valuable player in fantasy. Josh Hamilton joins Kemp on this roster, giving Team 4 two outfielder that have previously delivered top-5 value. Javier Baez is the top shortstop in the minor leagues, and should hit Wrigley Field at some point this season.

PO
5
C
J.Castro, HOU (17-165)
1B
C.Davis, BAL (1-5)
2B
I.Kinsler, DET (7-65)
3B
P.Alvarez, PIT (9-85)
SS
S.Castro, CHC (10-96)
OF
J.Ellsbury, NYY (2-16)
OF
J.Bruce, CIN (5-45)
OF
M.Holliday, STL (8-76)
UT
B.Butler, KC (12-116) 1B
UT
B.Revere, PHI (16-156) OF
SP
S.Strasburg, WAS (3-25)
SP
F.Hernandez, SEA (4-36)
RP
A.Chapman, CIN (6-56)
RP
C.Janssen, TOR (14-136)
P
S.Miller, STL (11-105) SP
P
J.Weaver, LAA (13-125) SP
P
J.Johnson, OAK (15-145) RP
BN
X.Bogaerts, BOS (18-176) 3B-SS
BN
D.Murphy, NYM (19-185) 1B-2B
BN
R.Dickey, TOR (20-196) SP
BN
N.Aoki, MIL (21-205) OF
BN
Y.Gallardo, MIL (22-216) SP
BN
G.Springer, HOU (23-225) OF
BN
L.Gregerson, OAK (24-236) RP
BN
R.Nolasco, MIN (25-245) SP

           I’d be doing back flips if I could land Ian Kinsler in round 7. Even if the power numbers are own, he’s set up very well as the table setter for Miguel Cabrera. Ben Revere quietly was pretty productive while healthy for the Phillies, and could deliver 45 steals if he can suit up for 150 games. Xander Bogaerts provides a high ceiling to go with eligibility at two premium positions.

PO
6
C
M.Weiters, BAL (15-146)
1B
F.Freeman, ATL (3-26)
2B
B.Phillips, CIN (9-86)
3B
A.Beltre, TEX (2-15)
SS
E.Andrus, TEX (8-75)
OF
B.Harper, WAS (1-6)
OF
S.Marte, PIT (5-46)
OF
J.Heyward, ATL (7-66)
UT
M.Adams, STL (12-115) 1B
UT
M.Prado, ARI (14-135) 2B-3B-OF
SP
C.Lee, PHI (4-35)
SP
A.Sanchez, DET (6-55)
RP
G.Perkins, MIN (10-95)
RP
J.Grilli, PIT (11-106)
P
J.Cueto, CIN (13-126) SP
P
H.Kuroda, NYY (16-155) SP
P
H.Street, SD (17-166) RP
BN
N.Cruz, BAL (18-175) OF
BN
C.Buchholz, BOS (19-186) SP
BN
J.Rollins, PHI (20-195) SS
BN
M.Melancon, PIT (21-206) RP
BN
B.Moss, OAK (22-215) 1B-OF
BN
C.Crisp, OAK (23-226) OF
BN
D.Haren, LAD (24-235) SP
BN
I.Kennedy, SD (25-246) SP

           A few years ago Jason Heyward and Matt Wieters were hailed as the future superstars of the game. While Heyward has had moments when healthy, both of these guys feel like they are entering the post-hype sleeper category. Matt Adams is arguably the most intriguing late round power bat.

PO
7
C
C.Santana, CLE (8-74) 1B
1B
A.Craig, STL (5-47) OF
2B
B.Lawrie, TOR (11-107) 3B
3B
A.Ramirez, MIL (12-114)
SS
J.Reyes, TOR (4-34)
OF
C.Gonzalez, COL (1-7)
OF
A.Jones, BAL (2-14)
OF
D.Brown, PHI (9-87)
UT
D.Ortiz, BOS (10-94) 1B
UT
H.Kendrick, LAA (17-167) 2B
SP
M.Scherzer, DET (3-27)
SP
M.Latos, CIN (7-67)
RP
C.Kimbrel, ATL (6-54)
RP
G.Balfour, TB (13-127)
P
J.Lester, BOS (14-134) SP
P
E.Frieri, LAA (15-147) RP
P
S.Gray, OAK (16-154) SP
BN
J.Hardy, BAL (18-174) SS
BN
T.Walker, SEA (19-187) SP
BN
M.Bourn, CLE (20-194) OF
BN
D.Fowler, HOU (21-207) OF
BN
C.Archer, TB (22-214) SP
BN
T.Clippard, WAS (23-227) RP
BN
K.Davis, MIL (24-234) OF
BN
U.Jimenez, BAL (25-247) SP

            On paper, this looks like a team that could log more games lost to the disabled list than total home runs. Sonny Gray, Tajuan Walker, and Chris Archer are all intriguing young starters with the talent to deliver good to excellent strike out totals.

PO
8
C
J.Lucroy, MIL (16-153) 1B
1B
A.Gonzalez, LAD (7-68)
2B
A.Hill, ARI (12-113)
3B
R.Zimmerman, WAS (6-53)
SS
T.Tulowitzki, COL (2-13)
OF
A.McCutchen, PIT (1-8)
OF
C.Gomez, MIL (3-28)
OF
J.Upton, ATL (4-33)
UT
M.Machado, BAL (11-108) 3B
UT
C.Granderson, NYM (15-148) OF
SP
J.Verlander, DET (5-48)
SP
J.Zimmerman, WAS (8-73)
RP
T.Rosenthal, STL (9-88)
RP
J.Papelbon, PHI (13-128)
P
M.Moore, TB (10-93) SP
P
D.Salazar, CLE (14-133) SP
P
J.Axford, CLE (17-168) RP
BN
B.Belt, SF (18-173) 1B
BN
J.Peralta, STL (19-188) SS
BN
J.Johnson, SD (20-193) SP
BN
A.Rendon, WAS (21-208) 2B-3B
BN
P.Corbin, ARI (22-213) SP
BN
T.Hunter, DET (23-228) OF
BN
Z.Wheeler, NYM (24-233) SP
BN
R.Davis, DET (25-248) OF

            It’s hard to imagine that Manny Machado can take a step forward statistically after recovering from such a horrific leg injury, which makes the odds of a full-blown breakout happening this year unlikely. Advanced numbers love Danny Salazar this year, and he has the look of the pitcher most likely to deliver a Matt Harvey-esque breakout. Curtis Granderson seems like a guy that will either hit 35 home runs, or deliver little to no value at all. Anything earlier than round 10 is too high a price for me.

PO
9
C
B.Posey, SF (5-49) 1B
1B
P.Fielder, TEX (2-12)
2B
B.Zobrist, TB (8-72) SS-OF
3B
K.Seager, STL (12-112)
SS
I.Desmond, WAS (6-52)
OF
R.Braun, MIL (1-9)
OF
J.Bautista, TOR (3-29)
OF
C.Beltran, NYY (10-92)
UT
D.Jennings, TB (13-129) OF
UT
C.Utley, PHI (16-152) 2B
SP
J.Fernandez, MIA (4-32)
SP
H.Iwakuma, SEA (7-69)
RP
R.Soriano, WAS (14-132)
RP
S.Cishek, MIA (15-149)
P
J.Teharan, ATL (9-89) SP
P
H.Bailey, CIN (11-109) SP
P
L.Hawkins, COL (17-169) RP
BN
N.Arenado, COL (18-172) 3B
BN
M.Garza, MIL (19-189) SP
BN
M.Teixiera, NYY (20-192) 1B
BN
A.Eaton, CHW (21-209) OF
BN
F.Liriano, PIT (22-212) SP
BN
E.Young, NYM (23-229) OF
BN
H.Bell, TB (24-232) RP
BN
T.Wood, CHC (25-249) SP

             Fearless prediction…Carlos Beltran will deliver top-40 value on a per-game basis. Your guess on how many games he plays is as good as mine. There are a lot of young pitchers that need to take a step forward in order to make this rotation viable. Iwakuma will miss most of April, so he’s probably better suited to be taken around Round 10 or 11.

PO
10
C
J.Mauer, MIN (7-70) 1B
1B
A.Pujols, LAA (6-51)
2B
D.Pedroia, BOS (3-30)
3B
P.Sandoval, SF (9-90)
SS
H.Ramirez, LAD (2-11)
OF
W.Myers, TB (5-50)
OF
Y.Cespedes, OAK (8-71)
OF
M.Trumbo, ARI (11-110) 1B
UT
B.Gardner, NYY (14-131) OF
UT
J.Gyorko, SD (15-150) 2B-3B
SP
C.Kershaw, LAD (1-10)
SP
A.Wainwright, STL (4-31)
RP
J.Nathan, DET (10-91)
RP
F.Rodney, SEA (16-151)
P
M.Wacha, STL (12-111) SP-RP
P
H.Ryu, LAD (13-130) SP
P
A.Ramirez, CHW (17-170) SS
BN
R.Brothers, COL (18-171) RP
BN
C.Tillman, BAL (19-190) SP
BN
O.Tavares, STL (20-191) OF
BN
C.Sabathia, NYY (21-210) SP
BN
N.Cotts, TEX (22-211) RP
BN
W.Venable, SD (23-230) OF
BN
L.Lynn, STL (24-231) SP
BN
N.Castellanos, DET (25-250) 3B-OF

            Is Albert Pujols really done? If he adapts to a DH role, I think there is still some production left in his bat. Joe Mauer has his best chance to duplicate his MVP season now that he’s free from catching duties. Keep the loss of catcher eligibility in mind if you’re building a keeper team. C.C. Sabathia will go much earlier than round 21 in your draft, but just know that I will need to see him return to his previous form before using a mid-round pick on him.