2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW

P.Goldschmidt, ARI

A.Rizzo, CHC

J.Bautista, TOR OF

M.Cabrera, DET 3B

E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL

A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B

P.Fielder, TEX

B.Posey, SF C

D.Ortiz, BOS

A.Pujols, LAA

V.Martinez, DET

J.Lucroy, MIL C

C.Santana, CLE C-3B

J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B

C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL

E.Hosmer, KC

R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF

B.Moss, CLE OF

S.Pearce, BAL OF

L.Duda, NYM

M.Trumbo, ARI OF

A.LaRoche, CHW

C.Headley, NYY 3B

M.Napoli, BOS

M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

Click here if you missed Round 1
Click here if you missed Rounds 2-3

4-31 = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B-OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Projections = .307, 24 HRs, 109 RBIs, 91 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            I wish I had statistics to back up why I’m so bullish on Gonzalez this year, but I can’t help believing that starting the year away from the Red Sox will do Gonzalez wonders this season.
                    
4-32 = Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = .266, 27 HRs, 93 RBIs, 87 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2^nd through 4^th Rounds
            Don’t lose your mind and take Harper in the first round of a redraft league. If you’re participating in the birth of a keeper league though, feel free to blow out the budget to acquire him.
                   
4-33 = Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 207 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 4^th Rounds
            Is Hamels the most underrated ace in MLB?
                     

4-34 = Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox
ESPN Projections = .294, 17 HRs, 64 RBIs, 86 Rs, 27 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            If there were anyway someone could guaruantee that Ellsbury would be healthy for the entire 2013 season, he would be a sure fire first round pick. As it stands, he’s fantasy baseball’s version of Stephen Curry.
                    
4-35 = Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 11 Ws, 3.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 215 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th Round
            If you play in a league with a bunch of old farts who still think “wins” is one of the best indicators of the quality of a starting pitcher, take advantage and build your pitching staff around Lee.
                       
4-36 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
ESPN Projections = .296, 13 HRs, 73 RBIs, 87 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 4^th Rounds
            We might have to wait another two years, but eventually Castro is going to lay down a hammer of the gods fantasy season. Like Harper, he’s another player you need to move up your cheat sheet if you have the chance to get him in a keeper league.
                     
4-37 = Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
ESPN Projections = .287, 29 HRs, 92 RBIs, 90 Rs, 15 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 5^th Rounds
            Jones finally broke out last season, and at only 27 years of age, appears poised to deliver another few seasons of similar productivity.
               
4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 214 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd Through 5^th Rounds
            Nerd stats continue to indicate that Greinke has the potential to deliver another year like his 2009 season with Kansas City. Having a powerhouse team around him will only help his cause.
                   
4-39 = Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = .267, 38 HRs, 108 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            Jay Bruce is five years younger than you probably think he is. If you’re willing to throw batting average to the wayside in pursuit of the long ball, Bruce is your man.
         
4-40 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 194 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 5^th Rounds
            The backbone of the defending World Series champion’s pitching staff, Cain is the perfect example of why you should not use one of your first three picks on a starting pitcher.
         
5-41 = Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
ESPN Projections = .320, 27 HRs, 107 RBIs, 84 Rs, 2 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            With all the preseason hype surrounding Eric Hosmer last year, it was Butler who was the breakout player of the year for the Royals. Locking up first eligibility pushed him up about three rounds on my draft board.
                       
5-42 = Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 194 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            The youngest pitcher off the board so far, don’t expect Bumgarner to fade in September like he did last season.
                   
5-43 = Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
ESPN Projections = .279, 22 HRs, 90 RBIs, 83 Rs, 16 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 7^th Rounds
            Headley was a fantasy league MVP the final two months of 2012, swatting 19 home runs after August 1^st. Now that his home ball park will finally have the fences moved in, there’s a chance that Headley can match last season’s power production.
                     
5-44 = Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
ESPN Projections = 18 Ws, 3.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 181 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            I’m not touching Weaver with any of my fantasy teams this year, but someone will look past his declining strikeout totals of a year ago and take him based on name recognition alone.
                      
5-45 = Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
ESPN Projections = .279, 26 HRs, 91 RBIs, 77 Rs, 18 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            Cespedes was one of the unsung heroes of Oakland’s improbable AL West winning run last season. It’s reasonable to think that he could make a big jump in his sophomore campaign.
                  
5-46 = Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = .300, 29 HRs, 100 RBIs, 98 Rs, 4 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            He’s not exciting to draft, but of all the players who will get drafted in the fifth round, Holliday is safest bet to produce.
                     
5-47 = Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
ESPN Projections = .268, 26 HRs, 89 RBIs, 83 Rs, 12 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Surprisingly effective last season, don’t be shocked if Goldschmidt cracks the 30-homer barrier this season.
                       
5-48 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = .292, 26 HRs, 95 RBIs, 92 Rs, 5 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            If Zimmerman didn’t get banged up so damn much, he’d be a lock to get drafted within the first 20 picks. You better have a solid back up if Zimmerman is your first option to man the hot corner.
                      
5-49 = Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.22 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 223 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Yu’s second half last year inspires enough confidence to think that he could make the jump to elite status in 2013. If nothing else, he’s going to strike out a bunch of guys.
     
5-50 = Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = 4 Ws, 1.99 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 120 Ks, 42 SVs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Remember what I wrote before the first round about how you shouldn’t pay for saves. Kimbrel is the exception, but it’s not necessarily the saves you’re paying for. The possibility of 120 strikeouts in 65 innings is too great to ignore at this point in the draft.

             

             

2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1

     Welcome to No Credentials second annual "Nerdfest", a month and a half long series showing how No Credentials would build 12 teams for a non-keeper league fantasy baseball team. My ranks should hold up well for either roto or head-to-head leagues. While this mock is based on a non-keeper league, I will occasionally call out guys who's value should be adjusted if you're building a keeper team, or if you are participating in an auction. Without further ado...

1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
             Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.

1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBs
            Tulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.

1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBs
            Cabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.  

1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays

.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            Two years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.

1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            I’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.

1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBs
            Votto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.

1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBs
            Blame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.

1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBs
            There’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

            To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.

1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SB
            Take 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.

1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SB
            His home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.

1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBs
            Ellsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.

1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIP
            Kershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.            

           

Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Review, Part 1

            We’re at the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season (that also means that we are at the halfway point of real baseball, but sadly for MLB, fantasy baseball is much more interesting to me). Now is a good time to call out some of the good predictions, as well as the crappy ones, made by No Credentials during the pre-season. I’ll find two players from each round of my 25-round mock draft to discuss.

Round 1

GOOD CALL = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – I wrote back in late February that I would sign off on Gonzalez being taken 2^nd in any fantasy league. So far, he’s the 4^th ranked player in all of fantasy.

BAD CALL = Carl Crawford, LF, Red Sox – A little more research could’ve shown that Crawford would not fair well in extra cool weather (which this year in New England, lasted until late-May). Carl was finally starting to heat up before landing on the DL. Look for a big second half from him.

 

 

Round 2

GOOD CALL = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Lost in all the commotion of the Dodgers major financial woes (note to professional sports leagues: Don’t give franchises to people who have assets, but no cold hard cash) is the incredible season Kemp is having. I won’t take to much credit for predicting his success, but I did mention that he had the ability to produce top-5 production. Right now, he’s on pace for a 40-40 season.

BAD CALL = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – A long DL stint is mostly to blame for Zimmerman’s poor first half. He is capable of being a top-5 fantasy 3^rd basemen the rest of the way, so see if you can get him at a steep discount from a disgruntled owner in your league.

Round 3

GOOD CALL = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The league leader in strikeouts, Kershaw has officially arrived as a legitimate fantasy ace.

BAD CALL = Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers – A 5.63 ERA isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were looking from a player who was supposed to anchor a pitching staff.

 

 

Round 4

GOOD CALL = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – He’s cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, but you still can’t complain about a player with dual position eligibility that is on pace to hit 48 home runs.

BAD CALL = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez has been a complete train wreck so far. It looks more and more like his first half performance in 2010 was a fluke.

 

 

Round 5

GOOD CALL = David Price, SP, Rays – Overshadowed by fellow starter James Shields, Price has had a very solid first half. He’s currently ranked 38^th among all players.

BAD CALL = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His terrifying strikeout totals kept me from strongly endorsing Weeks in my mock draft, but so far he has posted a solid batting average along with 14 homers and seven steals.

 

 

Round 6

GOOD CALL = Jay Bruce, RF, Reds – Jay is currently on pace to smack 36 home runs, which gives him an outside shot to have 100 career home runs by the time he’s 24 years old. In retrospect, he should’ve gone in the 3^rd round in my keeper league.

BAD CALL = Mat Latos, SP, Padres – Latos has been a huge disappointment so far for No Credentials. Drafted as the second pitcher in one of my leagues, he’s been destroying my WHIP ever since an early season DL stint. The strikeouts are still there, so he is also a solid buy-low candidate (no one will buy him from me though. I’m in too deep).

Round 7

GOOD CALL = Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies - I predicted 15 homers, 40 steals, and over 100 runs scored for the Flyin’ Hawaiian this year. The steals aren’t quite there, but he’s on pace to hit the other two category goals.

BAD CALL = Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates – The worst pick of my mock so far. I’m embarrassed to say that I endorsed taking him in the 7^th round.

Round 8

GOOD CALL = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Deemed the favorite “under the radar fantasy starter of 2011” by No Credentials, Marcum has delivered as the best pitcher for the first place Brewers.

BAD CALL = Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox – I’m fairly certain that at some point I wrote that the Sox should trade Ellsbury (if you dig deep enough into the No Credentials archive you’ll find it). All he’s done in the first half is steal 25 bases and hit 9 home runs. Without him, Carl Crawford’s struggles would have killed the Red Sox.

 

 

Round 9

GOOD CALL = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – I wrote in early March that if Young kept his batting average over .250 he’d have a shot at a 30-30 season. During the first half, he’s batting .255 with 15 homers and 10 steals.

BAD CALL = Brett Gardner, LF, Yankees – Here’s my preseason write-up on Gardner.

Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58^th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112^th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5^th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9^th.

In related news, a damned fool wrote that Brett Gardner would provide the same production as Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

 

Round 10

GOOD CALL = Michael Bourn, CF, Astros – Bourn is on pace to swipe 70 bags this year. Even though he’s really only a 2-category guy (steals and runs), his dominance on the base paths is enough to have him ranked 24^th among all players in fantasy.

BAD CALL = Chone Figgins, 2B-3B, Mariners – Maybe it’s all the rain in Seattle, but for whatever reason, Figgins’ career has fallen over a cliff since he signed with them before the 2010 season. I finally cut him from my redraft league team three weeks ago.

 

 

Round 11

GOOD CALL = Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles – His .221 batting average has backed up my preseason plea for all fantasy owners to keep him off of their rosters. If you pick him up off the waiver wire, a cigarette box should pop up on your screen with a warning label that informs you of the dangers of owning Reynolds.

BAD CALL = Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers – I predicted that a full-season in Chavez-Ravine would keep a few of Lilly’s fastball from getting hit over the fence. Sadly, Lilly is actually on pace to give up a career high number of home runs.

Round 12

GOOD CALL = Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays – His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but Hellickson has done a good job of pitching to contact in his first full season in the big leagues. A WHIP of 1.16 is very impressive for a rookie pitcher in the AL East.

BAD CALL = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – No Credentials put the possibility out there that Thornton would end up as a top-10 closer. The season was roughly 10 days old when Ozzie Guillen stripped him of closing duties.

   

Sunday Draft (2-13-11) 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft - Round 1

This week I'll use the Sunday draft as a springboard for my MLB fantasy mock draft I've been planning on doing for months. Every couple of days, I will post a round or two of a mock draft that would show how I would fill out 12 fantasy baseball teams. This fictional league would be a head-to-head league with standard 5X5 scoring. Each team will have 25 players on it. Without further ado, the first round of my 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft (sponsored by the TI-83 Scientific Calculator).

  

1-1  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals – What make Albert extra scary this year? Two words…contract year.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers – If he didn’t get hurt during the last two weeks of the 2010 season, he would’ve had numbers very similar to Pujols.

1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – The only reason I have him jacked up this high is the combination of the team he’s on plus the position he plays.

1-4  = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to stay healthy and crack 40 home runs.

1-5  = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – I’m not as high on Ramirez as most fantasy experts due to his miscast batting lineup spot (Florida has hit him 3^rd when he should be batting leadoff and stealing 60 bases a year), and the Marlins aren’t exactly the ’27 Yankees. There’s probably no way he slips past the 3^rd pick in any draft you will participate in.

1-6  = Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Longoria is the best player at pretty weak position. Tampa has surrounded Longoria with some solid hitting, so expect Longoria to see a few more fastballs this season.

1-7  = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – Buster Olney wrote the other day that he wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzalez put up 48 homers and 146 RBIs this season. If he does that, than he’s the #2 pick in the 2012 draft. I personally wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him that high this season.

1-8  = Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – His first mostly healthy season produced MVP level numbers. Votto should be a monster again in the middle of a potent Reds’ lineup.

1-9  = Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies – There’s a point in the draft where after a certain number of hitters are off the board, you’re not comfortable with any of the options as your first pick. For me, that point is right here, so instead of feeling uneasy, go ahead and take the best pitcher in the game.

1-10 = Carl Crawford, OF-LF, Red Sox – Crawford produced top-5 fantasy seasons while hitting in Tampa Bay. It’s scary to think what he could do on a loaded Red Sox team (as long as they give him the green light to run). I wouldn’t fault anyone for considering him anywhere from pick 3 on (the only reason I have him so low is because there are so many outfielders).

1-11 = Ryan Braun, OF-LF, Brewers – This pick isn’t all that exciting, but the floor (.280-25-100) is solid enough that he’s a very safe option in the first round. If the Brewers are as good as I think they can be, he becomes a steal at 11.

1-12 = David Wright, 3B, Mets - Sure, the Mets are in financial chaos, and are probably looking at a .500 record or worse competing in the tough NL East. This will not affect Wright. He has a very motivated Jose Reyes hitting in front of him, and should have plenty of RBI chances. 

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/3-12/5)

10. Auburn and Oregon Punch Tickets to BCS Championship Game

            I wrote about this scenario in last weeks 10-pack, but I’m quite pleased that it is a reality. I’m predicting that Auburn will out muscle the Ducks, but if Cam Newton gets wined and dined a little too much during the Heisman tour, it could open the door for Oregon (that happened to Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith a few years back against Florida. He attended so many banquets he gained about 65 pounds.)

9. Jeter Resigns With Yankees

            Unbelievably, Jeter was able to weasel an extra $7 million out of the Yankees. This would’ve been higher, but the 5th item on this list bumped it down. It was nice to see the Yankees show their respect to Jeter. You don’t see that often in pro sports.

8. Dolphins and Browns Play One of the Ugliest Games Ever

            Due to not having NFL Sunday ticket, I was stuck with this game on CBS at 1pm. What a terrible game. I guess you can’t expect too much when the two quarterbacks are Jake Delhomme and Chad Henne, but this game didn’t even meet my very low expectations. At least there was plenty of humor to come out of this game (a field goal attempt hitting the upright, Chad Henne throwing three terrible interceptions, both teams combining to go 6-28 with 3^rd down conversations, and combining for approximately 46 punts) that it was still watchable.

7. WNBA Commissioner Resigns

            Until this was reported, I was completely unaware that there was a WNBA Commissioner.

6. Bengals Gift Wrap Victory for New Orleans

            It's been said on a few ESPN shows already, but I'll repeat it (because I'm lazy)...would any other team in the league jump offsides on 4th down when it is obvious the other team will not snap the ball?

5. Washington Nationals Sign Jayson Werth to an Insane Contract

            I’ve read plenty of stories about this signing, and I don’t know where I stand at this point. For those of you not in the know, the Washington Nationals (perennial doormats in the National League East) signed 32-year old outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract (I guess the economy is on the way back up).

            On one hand, this contract is completely ludicrous. Paying this kind of money to a 32-year old player who only has 684 career hits is preposterous. Werth typically hit 5^th or 6^th for the Phillies, and has never had to carry a team. Now he’s being paid to do just that until he turns 39 years old. His high strikeout totals are not a good trait when projecting how a player will age. 

            On the other hand though, this signing gets people excited about the Washington Nationals at a time when their best young pitcher (Stephen Strasburg) will be out for the season and their best young prospect (Bryce Harper) is probably a year away from contributing at the major league level. Washington has plenty of money to spend, but has had difficulty convincing top free agents to sign with them. They were big players in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes two years ago, but couldn’t compete with the Yankees. Going out and overpaying for a player of Werth’s caliber will at least show future free agents that they are willing to do what it takes to compete. It also completely screws up salary expectations for the rest of the 2010 free agent class. Carl Crawford has enough leverage now to try to get the Red Sox, Angels, or Yankees to pay him $180 million over 8 years. Any deal that infuriates every other GM in Major League Baseball deserves a pat on the back.

4. “The Walking Dead” Season Finale

            This is a bittersweet event for me. While I loved the first season of this show, I’m disappointed that we will have to wait a while for season 2.

3. Red Sox Acquire First Basemen Adrian Gonzalez From San Diego

            For a more extended analysis, check out my Saturday post on this trade. If you don’t want to check that out, then just know that Adrian Gonzalez is going to be a monster at Fenway Park.

2. Peyton Manning Continues His Brett Favre Impersonation Against Dallas

            What happens when a quarterback is on a team that has poor offensive line play, can’t run the ball, and has back-up wide receivers trying to read blitzes? The quarterback will try to force the issue, and turn the ball over at an alarming rate. We’ve seen this happen plenty of times with Brett Favre (the first half of the ‘00s with Green Bay, this year with Minnesota), and we’re seeing it this year with Peyton Manning. I mean, if Orlando Scandrick is picking off a pass and running it back for 6, then you really have issues (for those of you who haven’t seen much of the Cowboys the last few years, Scandrick is the Cowboys nickelback who constantly gets roasted by opposing wide receivers. I almost involuntarily soiled myself after he picked Manning off).

            Does Peyton Manning’s 11 interceptions in his last three games mean that he’s washed up? I say no. Indianapolis is clearly not going very far this season (whether they make the playoffs or not), but next year, if they can do anything to make their offensive line better, they will be back to the Colts we’ve all come to know and love (or hate). A stud runningback wouldn’t hurt either.  

1. Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger’s Schnozz Save Steelers

            All right, Roethlisberger’s nose had very little to do with the win, but did you see what it looked like? The next time the letter “C” is featured on “Sesame Street”, they could use a picture of Roethlisberger’s nose as an example.

            I’m not exactly sure what the Ravens were thinking throwing the ball on 2^nd down. After Ray Rice had gotten five yards on the first play, wouldn’t it make more sense to keep running the ball to run the clock down? Worst-case scenario is punting and pinning the Steelers back at the 20-yard line with two minutes to go (no way the Steelers were going to march 80 yards against the Ravens defense last night). Best-case scenario is Rice running for the first down in one of the next two plays. Barring a Rice fumble (which rarely happens), you avoid a costly turnover that gives Pittsburgh great field position and a chance to win the game.

            You have to tip your cap to Troy Polamalu on this play. I’m not sure exactly how fast he got to Joe Flacco, but I’ve estimated that it was probably about 0.013453 seconds. In other words, really, really fast. If Polamalu keeps flying around like that, the Steelers can go along way in the playoffs (assuming they don’t run into the Patriots. Hopefully for their sake the Jets will take care of that).

           

Victor Who? Say Hello to Adrian Gonzalez

            I wrote last week about how Red Sox fans wouldn’t remember Victor Martinez in six months. I’d like to go back in time and rename that column “We Won’t Remember Victor Martinez in 10 Days.”

            Boston and San Diego have agreed in principle to a deal that will send All-Star 1^st Basemen Adrian Gonzalez to Boston in exchange for three minor league prospects. The prospects are pitcher Casey Kelly (ranked the top Red Sox prospect by Baseball America), 1B Anthony Rizzo (ranked 3^rd), and outfielder Reymond Fuentes (ranked 6^th).

            Gonzalez hasn’t gotten nearly enough credit nationally, but he will now. In five seasons for the Padres, he had four 30-homer seasons, three 100+-RBI seasons, and two Gold Glove awards. 30 home runs may not sound like a lot, but considering we are in the post-steroids era, and he played half of his games in San Diego (the hardest park to hit a ball out of due to the vast size of it), it’s quite a feat. The Padres’ lineup wasn’t exactly the 1927 Yankees either, leading to Gonzalez having the second most intentional walks in baseball last season. Gonzalez will have much better protection next season. In fact, let’s assume that the Red Sox are able to sign Carl Crawford. This would create a top-5 batting order that could look like this.

1. Carl Crawford, LF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
5. David Ortiz, DH

             This group should be even more dynamic than the Red Sox World Series teams in 2004 and 2007. Keep in mind that they still have Jacoby Ellsbury on the roster (assuming he’s finally recovered from his broken ribs), although he’ll probably get shipped out if they land Crawford. J.D. Drew and his slowly decaying corpse will also be manning right field, although having him hit in the bottom third of the lineup isn’t a bad thing. Boston has tremendous flexibility going forward, and plenty of trade assets to play with. Ortiz’s contract expires after this season, giving them financial flexibility going into 2012. As bleak as things looked watching Bill Hall get everyday at-bats last year, it will be fun again to watch the Red Sox.

             The price that the Sox had to pay to pick up Gonzalez is amazing. They did not have to part with anyone on their Major League roster. Sure, they gave up three highly rated prospects, but I’d rather give up a few players that could be good for a guy who is already great. Gonzalez is only 28 years old, and will be a staple in the Red Sox lineup for years to come. Kudos to Theo Epstein for pulling off this trade without having to part with someone like Ellsbury.

(READER ALERT: WRITER IS GOING TO TALK ABOUT FANTASY BASEBALL FOR A PARAGRAPH. IF YOU THINK FANTASY BASEBALL IS ONLY FOR DORKS, MOVE ON TO ANOTHER WEB PAGE).

            What does this trade do to Adrian Gonzalez’s fantasy value? Easy answer…a lot. Last season, he was generally a 3^rd round pick. On a potent Red Sox team, he at least has moved up into Mark Teixeira territory (end of the first round, start of the second, depending on if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league). He will be overvalued in any league involving a significant amount of Red Sox fans, but I would not argue with anyone that took him 7^th overall or later.