2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

4-31 = Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
            Wainwright might be the poster child for the modern success of Tommy John surgery.

4-32 = Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins

            Of the elite fantasy pitchers, Fernandez is the first one who’s advanced stats from 2013 says “regression”. That shouldn’t lower his stock in keeper leagues, but keep that in mind if you’re in a re-draft league.

4-33 = Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves

            After a torrid first forty games of the 2013 season, Upton crashed back to Earth the rest of the way. The ceiling is still that of a player who could finish as the top overall fantasy hitter, but the odds of that happening are shrinking with each passing year.

4-34 = Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

            Like the top two shortstops, Reyes also is a major injury risk, but he doesn’t have the benefit of 30+ home run potential.

4-35 = Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            He’s old and kind of boring, but there aren’t many pitchers as reliable as him in the WHIP department.

4-36 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            Hernandez is significantly more valuable in leagues that count quality starts instead of wins.

4-37 = Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

            Odds are 2013 will be the best season of Segura’s career, but if he can net 40 stolen bases, you’ll be happy.

4-38 = Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Bumgarner has steadily improved every year in the big leagues, and he’s still only 24 years old.

4-39 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

            His numbers were down overall after his 2012 Cy Young winning campaign, but after returning from a DL stint last year, Price put up 2.53 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.

4-40 = Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers

            Choo’s new contract is ridiculous, but that shouldn’t stop you from adding him to your fantasy team. He’s one of the few reliable sources of runs MLB has to offer.

5-41 = Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox

            Sale is a beacon of light on a pretty awful White Sox team.

5-42 = Alex Rios, OF, Texas Rangers

            Upon his arrival after last years trade from Chicago, Rios racked up 16 steals for Texas during the final 47 games.

5-43 = Zach Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

            As long as Greinke doesn’t plunk Carlos Quentin this year, he should be a fantasy stud.

5-44 = Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Hamels caught the “no-win bug” that plagued Cliff Lee in 2012. Baseball fans that grew up in the 1960s probably think he’s terrible.

5-45 = Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds

            One of the first power guys off the board that is going to kill your batting average, you’d be doing cartwheels if he can keep his average over .270.

5-46 = Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            His hitting approach leaves him prone to bouts of severe slumps, but he’s one of the few players capable of 40 steals and 15 homers.

5-47 = Allen Craig, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Craig will likely spend the majority of this season in the outfield, putting an injury prone player in a position of greater risk. With that said, if he could somehow play 150 games, he could deliver top-20 overall value.

5-48 = Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            There’s a whiff of Roy Halladay’s decline when you look at Verlander, as he has had the largest workload of any starting pitcher since 2009.

5-49 = Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants

            You’ll get him a few rounds later than you did last year, and that’s a good thing. Posey could easily bounce back to his 2012 production.

5-50 = Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

            A bit of a boom bust candidate, batting average will ultimately determine if Myers is a factor in deciding fantasy leagues this season. If he keeps it above .260, he’ll be relevant.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

Click here if you missed Round 1
Click here if you missed Rounds 2-3

4-31 = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B-OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Projections = .307, 24 HRs, 109 RBIs, 91 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            I wish I had statistics to back up why I’m so bullish on Gonzalez this year, but I can’t help believing that starting the year away from the Red Sox will do Gonzalez wonders this season.
                    
4-32 = Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = .266, 27 HRs, 93 RBIs, 87 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2^nd through 4^th Rounds
            Don’t lose your mind and take Harper in the first round of a redraft league. If you’re participating in the birth of a keeper league though, feel free to blow out the budget to acquire him.
                   
4-33 = Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 207 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 4^th Rounds
            Is Hamels the most underrated ace in MLB?
                     

4-34 = Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston Red Sox
ESPN Projections = .294, 17 HRs, 64 RBIs, 86 Rs, 27 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            If there were anyway someone could guaruantee that Ellsbury would be healthy for the entire 2013 season, he would be a sure fire first round pick. As it stands, he’s fantasy baseball’s version of Stephen Curry.
                    
4-35 = Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 11 Ws, 3.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 215 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th Round
            If you play in a league with a bunch of old farts who still think “wins” is one of the best indicators of the quality of a starting pitcher, take advantage and build your pitching staff around Lee.
                       
4-36 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
ESPN Projections = .296, 13 HRs, 73 RBIs, 87 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 4^th Rounds
            We might have to wait another two years, but eventually Castro is going to lay down a hammer of the gods fantasy season. Like Harper, he’s another player you need to move up your cheat sheet if you have the chance to get him in a keeper league.
                     
4-37 = Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
ESPN Projections = .287, 29 HRs, 92 RBIs, 90 Rs, 15 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 5^th Rounds
            Jones finally broke out last season, and at only 27 years of age, appears poised to deliver another few seasons of similar productivity.
               
4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 214 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd Through 5^th Rounds
            Nerd stats continue to indicate that Greinke has the potential to deliver another year like his 2009 season with Kansas City. Having a powerhouse team around him will only help his cause.
                   
4-39 = Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = .267, 38 HRs, 108 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            Jay Bruce is five years younger than you probably think he is. If you’re willing to throw batting average to the wayside in pursuit of the long ball, Bruce is your man.
         
4-40 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 194 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 5^th Rounds
            The backbone of the defending World Series champion’s pitching staff, Cain is the perfect example of why you should not use one of your first three picks on a starting pitcher.
         
5-41 = Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City Royals
ESPN Projections = .320, 27 HRs, 107 RBIs, 84 Rs, 2 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            With all the preseason hype surrounding Eric Hosmer last year, it was Butler who was the breakout player of the year for the Royals. Locking up first eligibility pushed him up about three rounds on my draft board.
                       
5-42 = Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 194 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            The youngest pitcher off the board so far, don’t expect Bumgarner to fade in September like he did last season.
                   
5-43 = Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres
ESPN Projections = .279, 22 HRs, 90 RBIs, 83 Rs, 16 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 7^th Rounds
            Headley was a fantasy league MVP the final two months of 2012, swatting 19 home runs after August 1^st. Now that his home ball park will finally have the fences moved in, there’s a chance that Headley can match last season’s power production.
                     
5-44 = Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
ESPN Projections = 18 Ws, 3.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 181 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3^rd through 6^th Rounds
            I’m not touching Weaver with any of my fantasy teams this year, but someone will look past his declining strikeout totals of a year ago and take him based on name recognition alone.
                      
5-45 = Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Oakland Athletics
ESPN Projections = .279, 26 HRs, 91 RBIs, 77 Rs, 18 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            Cespedes was one of the unsung heroes of Oakland’s improbable AL West winning run last season. It’s reasonable to think that he could make a big jump in his sophomore campaign.
                  
5-46 = Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = .300, 29 HRs, 100 RBIs, 98 Rs, 4 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            He’s not exciting to draft, but of all the players who will get drafted in the fifth round, Holliday is safest bet to produce.
                     
5-47 = Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
ESPN Projections = .268, 26 HRs, 89 RBIs, 83 Rs, 12 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Surprisingly effective last season, don’t be shocked if Goldschmidt cracks the 30-homer barrier this season.
                       
5-48 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = .292, 26 HRs, 95 RBIs, 92 Rs, 5 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th Round
            If Zimmerman didn’t get banged up so damn much, he’d be a lock to get drafted within the first 20 picks. You better have a solid back up if Zimmerman is your first option to man the hot corner.
                      
5-49 = Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.22 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 223 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Yu’s second half last year inspires enough confidence to think that he could make the jump to elite status in 2013. If nothing else, he’s going to strike out a bunch of guys.
     
5-50 = Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = 4 Ws, 1.99 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 120 Ks, 42 SVs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Remember what I wrote before the first round about how you shouldn’t pay for saves. Kimbrel is the exception, but it’s not necessarily the saves you’re paying for. The possibility of 120 strikeouts in 65 innings is too great to ignore at this point in the draft.

             

             

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/7-12/9)

10. Dodgers Sign Zach Greinke, Korean Lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu
            If nothing else, the past decade of major league baseball has proven that spending money recklessly doesn’t guaruantee a playoff spot, much less a World Series, but kudos to the Dodgers for ignoring this trend and throwing cash all over the place.

9. Royals Trade James Shields to Tampa Bay for Minor League Stud Wil Myers

            I have a hard time believing that the Rays are going to end up getting outsmarted by Kansas City. If Myers is in the majors by the end of May, pencil him in for AL Rookie of the Year.

8. Giants Score 52 Points

7. Seahawks Score 58 Points
            In Seattle’s case, the score was 58-0, which is the type of result that should relegate Arizona to the Arena League.

6. Johnny Manziel Wins the Heisman

            I love the name Johnny Manziel.

5. Adrian Peterson Goes Bonkers Again

            The fact that Peterson has a legitimate shot at a 2,000 yard rushing season less than 365 days after tearing his left ACL should go down as one of the most remarkable athletic achievements of the last 20 years.
         
4. Lionel Messi Sets Record For Most Goals in One Year
            Wasn’t Messi getting hauled off the pitch on a stretcher last week?

3. RGIII Nearly Blows Out ACL, Redskins Win Anyway   
            Even without their franchise player, the Redskins were able to pull off an epic comeback.

2. Down Nine in the Fourth Quarter, Cowboys Keep Season Alive

            Leave it to the sorry Bengals to make the Cowboys look like a competent fourth quarter team.

1. Pacquiao Hits the Canvas

            I’d like to formally thank Juan Manuel Marquez for finally putting to bed the talk of a Manny Pacquiao-Floyd Mayweather Jr. mega fight. 

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

            It’s been a little while since the last installment so if you want a refresher on who got taken already, click here for round 1, and here for rounds 2-3.

4-37 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            You’re not going to get any homers, but he’s the safest source of steals the shortstop position has to offer.

4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            Advanced metrics indicate that Greinke is a fantastic buy-low candidate (if a pick within the fourth or fifth rounds can be considered “buy-low”). Redraft league participants should consider the merits of taking Greinke as your staff ace two rounds later than you would have to take Felix Hernandez.

4-39 = Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

            Lawrie has all the raw tools to succeed, it’s just a matter of if he can live up to the hype or not. In a redraft league, he’s probably not worth the risk of using such a high pick on him.

4-40 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

            Castro is a hitting machine, and an up tick in the stolen base department could make him a second round pick at this time next year.

4-41 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

            The only thing that will keep Strasburg from finishing the season as a top-5 fantasy pitcher will be the Nationals limiting his innings.

4-42 = Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Haren is a notorious fast starter/poor finisher (that’s what she said), but the addition of Mr. Pujols should generate an extra win or two or three.

4-43 = Matt Holiday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Those of you worried about Holiday’s ability to anchor the Cardinals lineup should remember that he was the best hitter on a Rockies team that went to the World Series in 2007.

4-44 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

            I’ve owned Zimmerman twice, and I think he spent a combined 753 games on the DL. He’s a nice player when he’s healthy, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Washington would pay him $100 million.

4-45 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians

            Displaying arguably the most advanced plate approach of any young player in the game last season, Santana is due for a fairly substantial increase from his 2011 batting average, which also has the potential to translate into 30 dingers.

4-46 = Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

            Keep in mind that at the time I made these picks, Braun was facing a 50 game suspension, and I still had him at 46. It’s a little concerning losing Prince Fielder’s bat behind him, but Braun is too talented to slip out of the top-10. I would take him with the third pick if I had the chance in a redraft league today.

4-47 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            If you’re into nerd stats, Price’s 12-13 2011 season was actually better than his 19-6 campaign in 2010. Even in the AL East, Price has the talent to deliver top-5 stats.

4-48 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

            I’m not touching A-Rod with a ten-foot pole unless my draft is in the sixth round and I’m still in need of a third baseman, but some idiot is going to draft him earlier than that.

5-49 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Boring? Yes. Effective? Yes again. Thank the post-steroids era for making this guy a fifth round pick.

5-50 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-RF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Fantasy baseball’s version of a Swiss army knife, Zobrist does a little bit of everything. A great pick at this point in the draft to anchor your middle infield.

5-51 = Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

            One of the few non-steroids aided first basemen to remain effective in his mid-30s, Konerko is the man to target if you miss out on the big time first basemen in the first two rounds.

5-52 = Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

            I’ll let the “experts” at ESPN fill this space. Here is what they have to say about Lester saying he wants to right the wrongs of 2011 and have a great 2012.

Lester was the first involved party to come clean about the aforementioned fried chicken and beer controversy and was very contrite, and implied he would make good in 2012. Normally, this can be brushed off as player-speak, but when the player is a cancer survivor, the words have more credibility.

            Uh, okay.

5-53 = Michael Young, 1B-2B-3B, Texas Rangers
            One of baseball’s most underrated hitters, Young’s position flexibility makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team.

5-54 = Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            The second Brewers pitcher taken in our mock that nerd stats indicate is a breakout candidate. Gallardo’s price tag is even cheaper than Greinke’s, which makes him a potential championship-swinging player in redraft leagues. At 26, Gallardo is poised to have a Cy Young caliber season.

5-55 = Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

            Age is catching up to him, but his place in the middle of the Phillies lineup still makes him one of the best options at second base.

5-56 = Mike Napoli, C-1B, Texas Rangers

            Don’t bank on Napoli batting over .300 again (his .344 BABIP in 2011 is completely unsustainable), but even if he drops to .250 his increased at-bats could lead to 35+ dingers. It’s hard to argue with anyone who would make him the first catcher off the board.

5-57 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves

            The batting average can be scary, and he’s prone to prolonged slumps, but there isn’t a better source of home runs from a second baseman not named Robinson Cano in baseball.

5-58 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

            Brandon Phillips is like the Matt Cain of second baseman. He’s not sexy, but he gets the job done.

5-59 = Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

            The day that Eric Hosmer improves his fly ball rate will be the day that Eric Hosmer rules the universe. Like Brett Lawrie, Hosmer’s a risky proposition in redraft leagues with this high of a pick.

5-60 = James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Shields was No Credentials favorite pitcher who most likely went after round 20 in fantasy drafts in 2011. He was on both of my fantasy teams last season, and delivered a pretty good Roy Halladay impression. Many skeptics believe that 2011 was a fluke, but nerd stats back up the case that Shields is capable of having another solid campaign in 2012. He’s going as late as the eighth round in some leagues, which is absolutely absurd. Go move Shields up your draft cheat sheet as soon as you close this browser.