2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

4-31 = Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
            Wainwright might be the poster child for the modern success of Tommy John surgery.

4-32 = Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins

            Of the elite fantasy pitchers, Fernandez is the first one who’s advanced stats from 2013 says “regression”. That shouldn’t lower his stock in keeper leagues, but keep that in mind if you’re in a re-draft league.

4-33 = Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves

            After a torrid first forty games of the 2013 season, Upton crashed back to Earth the rest of the way. The ceiling is still that of a player who could finish as the top overall fantasy hitter, but the odds of that happening are shrinking with each passing year.

4-34 = Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

            Like the top two shortstops, Reyes also is a major injury risk, but he doesn’t have the benefit of 30+ home run potential.

4-35 = Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            He’s old and kind of boring, but there aren’t many pitchers as reliable as him in the WHIP department.

4-36 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            Hernandez is significantly more valuable in leagues that count quality starts instead of wins.

4-37 = Jean Segura, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

            Odds are 2013 will be the best season of Segura’s career, but if he can net 40 stolen bases, you’ll be happy.

4-38 = Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Bumgarner has steadily improved every year in the big leagues, and he’s still only 24 years old.

4-39 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

            His numbers were down overall after his 2012 Cy Young winning campaign, but after returning from a DL stint last year, Price put up 2.53 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.

4-40 = Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers

            Choo’s new contract is ridiculous, but that shouldn’t stop you from adding him to your fantasy team. He’s one of the few reliable sources of runs MLB has to offer.

5-41 = Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox

            Sale is a beacon of light on a pretty awful White Sox team.

5-42 = Alex Rios, OF, Texas Rangers

            Upon his arrival after last years trade from Chicago, Rios racked up 16 steals for Texas during the final 47 games.

5-43 = Zach Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

            As long as Greinke doesn’t plunk Carlos Quentin this year, he should be a fantasy stud.

5-44 = Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Hamels caught the “no-win bug” that plagued Cliff Lee in 2012. Baseball fans that grew up in the 1960s probably think he’s terrible.

5-45 = Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds

            One of the first power guys off the board that is going to kill your batting average, you’d be doing cartwheels if he can keep his average over .270.

5-46 = Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            His hitting approach leaves him prone to bouts of severe slumps, but he’s one of the few players capable of 40 steals and 15 homers.

5-47 = Allen Craig, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Craig will likely spend the majority of this season in the outfield, putting an injury prone player in a position of greater risk. With that said, if he could somehow play 150 games, he could deliver top-20 overall value.

5-48 = Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            There’s a whiff of Roy Halladay’s decline when you look at Verlander, as he has had the largest workload of any starting pitcher since 2009.

5-49 = Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants

            You’ll get him a few rounds later than you did last year, and that’s a good thing. Posey could easily bounce back to his 2012 production.

5-50 = Wil Myers, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

            A bit of a boom bust candidate, batting average will ultimately determine if Myers is a factor in deciding fantasy leagues this season. If he keeps it above .260, he’ll be relevant.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 2-3

            If you missed Round 1, click here to get caught up.

2-13. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

            It feels like Upton has been playing for years, but he’s only 24 years old. A 30-30 season is coming soon.

2-14. Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Miami Marlins

            There are tons of questions surrounding Hanley (is he fully healthy again, will he finally make peace with moving to third base), but if he’s firing on all cylinders, Ramirez could easily be the most valuable player in fantasy this season. Throw in the added third base eligibility (meaning you can plug him in at two of the weakest positions), and he’s well worth the risk at this point in the draft.

2-15. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            Verlander’s 2011 performance was extraordinary, and it would be foolish for anyone to think he can duplicate it. In increase from last seasons ridiculous .236 BABIP was a certainty even before it was announced that Miguel Cabrera would spend time at third base. He will still be good, but if someone takes Halladay or Cliff Lee ahead of him in your draft, don’t snicker at him or her.

2-16. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Halladay’s incredible consistency has almost made him a boring player to draft. He might not be the top fantasy pitcher this season, but there isn’t anyone else who is a safer bet to finish the year in the top-5.

2-17. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

            Fresh off a career year in home runs and steals, Pedroia is poised to have another stellar all-around campaign.

2-18. Carlos Gonzalez, LF-CF-RF, Colorado Rockies

            Don’t ever expect his 2010 numbers again, but you shouldn’t be too bummed out about 50 combined homers and steals. You do need to be prepared for a batting average that can be anywhere from .260 to .320.

2-19. Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins

            If you like to gamble, you’ll bet on Reyes staying healthy for 150 games and giving you 50 steals and tons of runs hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton. If you’re conservative, you’ll stay away from him because of his injury history. He’s essentially the MLB version of Mike Vick.

2-20. Mike Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

            I’ve done a full 180 on Stanton, which may or may not be related to the fact that I took him in the eighth round of my keeper league draft last year. He should have more than enough RBI opportunities with Reyes and Ramirez hitting in front of him.

2-21. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Cliff Lee attacks the strike zone in a similar manner that George W. Bush assaulted the English language. Like Halladay, another dude that’s not exciting to draft.

2-22. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

            Kinsler’s BABIP last seasons suggests that his batting average is due for an increase this year. The fact that 2011 was the first season Kinsler ever dodged the DL suggests that he is due for at least one 15-day stint. Whichever of those last two sentences you feel more strongly about should determine what pick (or money in an auction) you’re willing to spend on him.

2-23. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            While his first two teammates who were drafted are considered boring, Hamels is the trendy choice. His excellent ERA and WHIP hasn’t translated to the win column the past two seasons, which one could argue means that he’s due for a 20 win season.      

2-24. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

            He won’t do you any favors in the batting average department, but 35+ homers and 110+ RBIs aren’t easy to come by in the post-steroids era.

3-25. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Weaver delivered a career season last year, but don’t be shocked if his ERA creeps closer to 3 if his BABIP moves closer to the norm. Wins are a tough stat to predict, but with Pujols on board, they should be easier to come by for Weaver and the rest of the Angels staff.

3-26. Andrew McCutcheon, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            McCutcheon was terrible after the All-Star Break, which derailed a potential breakout season. If he can play an entire season with a .280+ batting average, we could be talking about one of the ten most valuable players in fantasy.

3-27. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            King Felix still might be the most talented starter in MLB, but Seattle’s anemic offense severely handicaps his win potential. Unless you’re in a league that has more categories than the standard 5x5 league, you have to drop him down your rankings.

3-28. Curtis Granderson, CF, New York Yankees

            Ever since the second half of the 2010 season, Granderson has been the modern day version of Mickey Mantle. Like Teixeira, Granderson will more than likely sport a poor batting average, but walks enough to still set the table for Cano, Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez.

3-29. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

            His peripheral numbers aren’t as strong as the other elite starters, but there isn’t a safer pitcher to bet on winning 20+ games than C.C. Bump him up your rankings even more if you are in a league that counts innings pitched as a stat category.

3-30. Josh Hamilton, LF-CF, Texas Rangers

            The last time I remember a player going 10 to 15 picks later than he should because of alcohol issues was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty good (incase you didn’t know), and so is Hamilton. He’s an injury risk, but I feel better taking him in the middle of the third round as opposed to the second.

3-31. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Lincecum is the NL version of Felix Hernandez, with a slightly better offense supporting him and more injury concerns.

3-32. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

            Thanks to the devastating loss of Jose Reyes, Wright’s supporting cast is a cast of misfit toys (with the exception of Ike Davis, if he’s healthy). Wright could be top-10 player in the second half if he gets traded, so he should be a player that is on your radar all season long after the draft.

3-33. Pablo Sandoval, 1B-3B, San Francisco Giants

            No Credentials predicts that this will be the season that the 25-year old Sandoval will crack the 30-homer mark. He won’t rack up a bunch of RBIs (he doesn’t exactly have the TECMO Super Baseball versions of Barry Bonds and Matt Williams on his team), but he delivers enough in the batting average department to warrant being the third player added to a team.

3-34. Desmond Jennings, LF-CF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            This pick is way to early. I’ll acknowledge that. However, guys with the potential to steal 50 bases and hit 15 home runs don’t grow on trees. If he keeps his average above .270 (which he was well above before a disastrous September last season), he’ll be one of the top 20 players in fantasy.

3-35. Nelson Cruz, LF-RF, Texas Rangers

            One of the greatest teases in fantasy baseball. If healthy, Cruz could easily top 45 home runs. However, Cruz pulls a groin about as often as Lindsey Lohan violates her probation. I’d prefer to get him in the middle of the fourth round.

3-36. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

            Amazingly enough, Beltre is the fifth Rangers hitter off the board (think they’ll score some runs this year?) Beltre smashed 32 homers last year in only 124 games. Forecasting 40+ dingers would be a little optimistic (his health won’t allow it), but Beltre is still one of the sexier options at third base in the majors.

Sunday Draft (2-20-11) Round 4 of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

4-37 = Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox – I love Lester this year. Even if he pitches as well as he did the past two seasons, he has a chance to sneak up to 22 or 24 wins with the powerful offense he has supporting him.

           

4-38 = Buster Posey, C-1B, Giants – Posey looks like the National League version of Joe Mauer, with a little less average and a bit more power.

4-39 = Jason Heyward, OF-RF, Braves – The only thing that held Heyward back last season was a couple of pesky injuries. His excellent plate discipline gives him the chance to a top-10 player this season. You’ll probably have to snag him in the 3^rd round if you want him on your team.

4-40 = C.C. Sabathia, SP, Yankees – I can’t figure out why most fantasy prognosticators have C.C. ranked so low. The last time I checked, he still pitches for the New York Yankees. Even more important, he has the option to opt out of his contract after this season (which based on how much money Cliff Lee got paid, Sabathia better be opting out of his contract), which means he is probably pitching to earn the last big contract of his career.  

4-41 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves – Uggla can be frustrating at times due to his high strikeout rate, but second basemen that consistently smack over 30 homers per season don’t grow on trees.

4-42 = Victor Martinez, C-1B, Tigers – Assuming Miguel Cabrera gets the help he needs and is ready to go for opening day, Victor Martinez is the perfect compliment for him. Victor will rarely have to play catcher this season, which means you will get more at-bats out of him than your typical backstop.

4-43 = Justin Upton, OF-RF, Diamondbacks – Upton was picked anywhere from the mid-2^nd to early 3^rd-round in fantasy drafts last year, but regressed in almost every offensive category. This is a guy that if he can ever figure it out, could deliver top-10 value.

4-44 = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 home runs last season. While no one should expect to see that again, would you complain if you got 35 homers out of a 3^rd Basemen you took towards the end of the 4^th round?

4-45 = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball the first half of last year before sputtering down the stretch. Reports out of spring training are favorable so far, so expect Jimenez to come out of the gates strong again (and then maybe think about trading him in late June).

4-46 = Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies – I would not take Jimmy Rollins here, but in your draft someone will probably already have taken him at the end of the 3^rd round. Rollins has been in steady decline the past few seasons.

4-47 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds – Cincinnati had one of the most powerful offenses in the National League last season, but Phillips actually had a down year. If he bounces back in 2011, expect a career year.

4-48 = Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins – If Johnson wasn’t such an injury risk, you could make a case for him being taken in the range of Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum. This is the perfect spot to gamble on him.