2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 6-7

6-51 = Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .280, 17 HRs, 65 RBIs, 86 Rs, 19 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 8^th Rounds
          Lawrie looked significantly more impressive during his brief call-up in 2011 than he did during his first full season in the bigs. He’ll need to improve upon his 51% groundball rate to deliver a 20-20 season.
                       
6-52 = Allen Craig, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = .296, 25 HRs, 103 RBIs, 87 Rs, 4 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 6^th Rounds
            If Craig could somehow stay healthy, he’d be a lock for top-15 fantasy production. Unfortunately, he’s missed roughly a quarter of his games due to injury during his pro career.
                      
6-53 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .257, 15 HRs, 70 RBIs, 90 Rs, 25 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th Round
            He’ll never steal 30+ bases again, but you won’t complain if Kipnis raises his home run total to 20.
                       
6-54 = Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 176 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            One down year has not destroyed No Credentials faith in Halladay.
                     
6-55 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .274, 3 HRs, 57 RBIs, 90 Rs, 32 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 7^th Rounds
            With the loss of Josh Hamilton, I fully expect Texas to give Andrus the green light on the base paths much more this season. If he stays out of the tattoo parlor, he could crack 40 for the first time.
                       
6-56 = Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 197 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            I’m not sure if Wainwright will ever be as effective as he was before Tommy John surgery, but this is the appropriate point in the draft to find out.
                       
6-57 = Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
ESPN Projections = .268, 27 HRs, 95 RBIs, 85 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 8^th Rounds
            Another guy that you shouldn’t get to excited about on draft day (don’t call his name in the third round, or bid too much in an auction), Rizzo is a prime example of why you could skip out on the top few first basemen in the first round.
                       
6-58 = Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 197 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            No Credentials fully expects Latos to make the leap to “ace” status during his second season in Cincinnati. This is a guy I want on as many fantasy teams as possible.
                       
6-59 = B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .245, 23 HRs, 77 RBIs, 84 Rs, 31 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 8^th Rounds
            I’m not a fan of guys that routinely hit below .250, but there aren’t many power-speed combo players like Upton.
           
6-60 = Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 19 Ws, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 208 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4^th through 6^th Rounds
            Gonzalez hasn’t been suspended yet for his connection to the steroids ring in Florida, but that hasn’t stopped me from scooting him down my draft board a bit. He’ll need to deliver a “I don’t give a shit” season like Ryan Braun did last year for me to trust his ability to deal with steroid allegations.
           
7-61 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .257, 26 HRs, 87 RBIs, 81 Rs, 5 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 7^th Rounds
            Santana’s disciplined plate approach will eventually lead to a top-ranked fantasy season at catcher for him, but I’m not sure if we can sign off on it happening this year.
                       
7-62 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-SS-OF, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .269, 19 HRs, 82 RBIs, 91 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 8^th Rounds
            One of the few players whose value goes beyond the stats he can post. Zobrist’s ability to cover both middle infield spots is worth an extra round or two.
                      
7-63 = Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .252, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, 98 Rs, 36 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 7^th through 9^th Rounds
            Jennings tanked in the first half of last season, but a strong second half gives me reason to believe that he will be a catalyst at the top of the Rays’ lineup this season. If he could drag his average up to .270, we could be talking about a 50 steal season.
                       
7-64 = Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = 18 Ws, 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 169 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            Of all the “ace” caliber pitchers that didn’t deliver close to a strikeout per inning last season, Cueto is the least likely to regress.
           
7-65 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = .285, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 93 Rs, 15 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 7^th Rounds
            Phillips isn’t exciting to own, but reliability at second base doesn’t grow on trees.
                      
7-66 = Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 203 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 8^th Rounds
            For me, he’s the shakiest starting pitcher we’ve picked so far, as his 1.33 WHIP in the second half of last season could be a better indication of the pitcher he actually is.

 



 
7-67 = Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = .309, 23 HRs, 90 RBIs, 80 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 8^th Rounds
            Don’t let his Ruth-esque October last year fool you. Sandoval is a player prone to injuries, and is completely dependant on his BABIP due to the fact that he barely walks. You could argue that he could end up with anywhere from 10 to 35 home runs this season.
                       
7-68 = R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 176 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 8^th Rounds
            We have no data on what happens when a knuckleballer wins the Cy Young and then changes leagues the following year, so I’m going conservative with Dickey this season and letting someone else draft him.
                       
7-69 = Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .268, 5 HRs, 49 RBIs, 89 Rs, 43 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6^th through 8^th Rounds
            One of the elite base stealers in the game, Bourn could take his running to new heights as a member of the Indians. Remember, they gave Jason Kipnis (a moderately fast white guy) the green light to steal 31 bases in 2012.
           
7-70 = C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 213 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5^th through 7^th Rounds
            There’s a zero percent chance Sabathia falls to pick 70 in your fantasy draft. More than likely, he’ll go somewhere in the late fifth to early sixth. However, there are too many red flags for Sabathia this year to warrant making him the ace of my fantasy staff. For one, theirs a decent chance that the Yankees will stink, driving down Sabathia’s win totals (wins are a fluky stat, but Sabathia has been the most reliable producer of them over the past four years). He hit the DL last August because of an elbow problem, which is scary when you consider that he’s thrown more innings than any other MLB pitcher on Earth over the past five years. Throw in his body type (big guys rarely age well unless steroids are involved), and we are looking at a cliff at some point down the road for Sabathia’s career. I’m not guaranteeing it will happen this year, but I don’t want him stuck on my roster when it does.

 

Click here if you missed Rounds 4-5

Click here if you missed  Rounds 2-3
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Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 2-3

            If you missed Round 1, click here to get caught up.

2-13. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

            It feels like Upton has been playing for years, but he’s only 24 years old. A 30-30 season is coming soon.

2-14. Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Miami Marlins

            There are tons of questions surrounding Hanley (is he fully healthy again, will he finally make peace with moving to third base), but if he’s firing on all cylinders, Ramirez could easily be the most valuable player in fantasy this season. Throw in the added third base eligibility (meaning you can plug him in at two of the weakest positions), and he’s well worth the risk at this point in the draft.

2-15. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            Verlander’s 2011 performance was extraordinary, and it would be foolish for anyone to think he can duplicate it. In increase from last seasons ridiculous .236 BABIP was a certainty even before it was announced that Miguel Cabrera would spend time at third base. He will still be good, but if someone takes Halladay or Cliff Lee ahead of him in your draft, don’t snicker at him or her.

2-16. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Halladay’s incredible consistency has almost made him a boring player to draft. He might not be the top fantasy pitcher this season, but there isn’t anyone else who is a safer bet to finish the year in the top-5.

2-17. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

            Fresh off a career year in home runs and steals, Pedroia is poised to have another stellar all-around campaign.

2-18. Carlos Gonzalez, LF-CF-RF, Colorado Rockies

            Don’t ever expect his 2010 numbers again, but you shouldn’t be too bummed out about 50 combined homers and steals. You do need to be prepared for a batting average that can be anywhere from .260 to .320.

2-19. Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins

            If you like to gamble, you’ll bet on Reyes staying healthy for 150 games and giving you 50 steals and tons of runs hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton. If you’re conservative, you’ll stay away from him because of his injury history. He’s essentially the MLB version of Mike Vick.

2-20. Mike Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

            I’ve done a full 180 on Stanton, which may or may not be related to the fact that I took him in the eighth round of my keeper league draft last year. He should have more than enough RBI opportunities with Reyes and Ramirez hitting in front of him.

2-21. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Cliff Lee attacks the strike zone in a similar manner that George W. Bush assaulted the English language. Like Halladay, another dude that’s not exciting to draft.

2-22. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

            Kinsler’s BABIP last seasons suggests that his batting average is due for an increase this year. The fact that 2011 was the first season Kinsler ever dodged the DL suggests that he is due for at least one 15-day stint. Whichever of those last two sentences you feel more strongly about should determine what pick (or money in an auction) you’re willing to spend on him.

2-23. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            While his first two teammates who were drafted are considered boring, Hamels is the trendy choice. His excellent ERA and WHIP hasn’t translated to the win column the past two seasons, which one could argue means that he’s due for a 20 win season.      

2-24. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

            He won’t do you any favors in the batting average department, but 35+ homers and 110+ RBIs aren’t easy to come by in the post-steroids era.

3-25. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Weaver delivered a career season last year, but don’t be shocked if his ERA creeps closer to 3 if his BABIP moves closer to the norm. Wins are a tough stat to predict, but with Pujols on board, they should be easier to come by for Weaver and the rest of the Angels staff.

3-26. Andrew McCutcheon, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            McCutcheon was terrible after the All-Star Break, which derailed a potential breakout season. If he can play an entire season with a .280+ batting average, we could be talking about one of the ten most valuable players in fantasy.

3-27. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            King Felix still might be the most talented starter in MLB, but Seattle’s anemic offense severely handicaps his win potential. Unless you’re in a league that has more categories than the standard 5x5 league, you have to drop him down your rankings.

3-28. Curtis Granderson, CF, New York Yankees

            Ever since the second half of the 2010 season, Granderson has been the modern day version of Mickey Mantle. Like Teixeira, Granderson will more than likely sport a poor batting average, but walks enough to still set the table for Cano, Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez.

3-29. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

            His peripheral numbers aren’t as strong as the other elite starters, but there isn’t a safer pitcher to bet on winning 20+ games than C.C. Bump him up your rankings even more if you are in a league that counts innings pitched as a stat category.

3-30. Josh Hamilton, LF-CF, Texas Rangers

            The last time I remember a player going 10 to 15 picks later than he should because of alcohol issues was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty good (incase you didn’t know), and so is Hamilton. He’s an injury risk, but I feel better taking him in the middle of the third round as opposed to the second.

3-31. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Lincecum is the NL version of Felix Hernandez, with a slightly better offense supporting him and more injury concerns.

3-32. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

            Thanks to the devastating loss of Jose Reyes, Wright’s supporting cast is a cast of misfit toys (with the exception of Ike Davis, if he’s healthy). Wright could be top-10 player in the second half if he gets traded, so he should be a player that is on your radar all season long after the draft.

3-33. Pablo Sandoval, 1B-3B, San Francisco Giants

            No Credentials predicts that this will be the season that the 25-year old Sandoval will crack the 30-homer mark. He won’t rack up a bunch of RBIs (he doesn’t exactly have the TECMO Super Baseball versions of Barry Bonds and Matt Williams on his team), but he delivers enough in the batting average department to warrant being the third player added to a team.

3-34. Desmond Jennings, LF-CF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            This pick is way to early. I’ll acknowledge that. However, guys with the potential to steal 50 bases and hit 15 home runs don’t grow on trees. If he keeps his average above .270 (which he was well above before a disastrous September last season), he’ll be one of the top 20 players in fantasy.

3-35. Nelson Cruz, LF-RF, Texas Rangers

            One of the greatest teases in fantasy baseball. If healthy, Cruz could easily top 45 home runs. However, Cruz pulls a groin about as often as Lindsey Lohan violates her probation. I’d prefer to get him in the middle of the fourth round.

3-36. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

            Amazingly enough, Beltre is the fifth Rangers hitter off the board (think they’ll score some runs this year?) Beltre smashed 32 homers last year in only 124 games. Forecasting 40+ dingers would be a little optimistic (his health won’t allow it), but Beltre is still one of the sexier options at third base in the majors.

Sunday Draft (2-13-11) 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft - Round 1

This week I'll use the Sunday draft as a springboard for my MLB fantasy mock draft I've been planning on doing for months. Every couple of days, I will post a round or two of a mock draft that would show how I would fill out 12 fantasy baseball teams. This fictional league would be a head-to-head league with standard 5X5 scoring. Each team will have 25 players on it. Without further ado, the first round of my 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft (sponsored by the TI-83 Scientific Calculator).

  

1-1  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals – What make Albert extra scary this year? Two words…contract year.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers – If he didn’t get hurt during the last two weeks of the 2010 season, he would’ve had numbers very similar to Pujols.

1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – The only reason I have him jacked up this high is the combination of the team he’s on plus the position he plays.

1-4  = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to stay healthy and crack 40 home runs.

1-5  = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – I’m not as high on Ramirez as most fantasy experts due to his miscast batting lineup spot (Florida has hit him 3^rd when he should be batting leadoff and stealing 60 bases a year), and the Marlins aren’t exactly the ’27 Yankees. There’s probably no way he slips past the 3^rd pick in any draft you will participate in.

1-6  = Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Longoria is the best player at pretty weak position. Tampa has surrounded Longoria with some solid hitting, so expect Longoria to see a few more fastballs this season.

1-7  = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – Buster Olney wrote the other day that he wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzalez put up 48 homers and 146 RBIs this season. If he does that, than he’s the #2 pick in the 2012 draft. I personally wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him that high this season.

1-8  = Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – His first mostly healthy season produced MVP level numbers. Votto should be a monster again in the middle of a potent Reds’ lineup.

1-9  = Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies – There’s a point in the draft where after a certain number of hitters are off the board, you’re not comfortable with any of the options as your first pick. For me, that point is right here, so instead of feeling uneasy, go ahead and take the best pitcher in the game.

1-10 = Carl Crawford, OF-LF, Red Sox – Crawford produced top-5 fantasy seasons while hitting in Tampa Bay. It’s scary to think what he could do on a loaded Red Sox team (as long as they give him the green light to run). I wouldn’t fault anyone for considering him anywhere from pick 3 on (the only reason I have him so low is because there are so many outfielders).

1-11 = Ryan Braun, OF-LF, Brewers – This pick isn’t all that exciting, but the floor (.280-25-100) is solid enough that he’s a very safe option in the first round. If the Brewers are as good as I think they can be, he becomes a steal at 11.

1-12 = David Wright, 3B, Mets - Sure, the Mets are in financial chaos, and are probably looking at a .500 record or worse competing in the tough NL East. This will not affect Wright. He has a very motivated Jose Reyes hitting in front of him, and should have plenty of RBI chances.