2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Shortstop

            Shortstop is an absolute minefield. When Ian Desmond delivers the best combination of durability and reliable production you know there is a problem. It’s a position where you can either swing for the fences and spend a high pick (or a bunch of auction cash) on Tulowitzki or Hanley, or punt the position and start a guy like Ben Zobrist.

Tier-1 = Do You Feel Lucky?

T.Tulowitzki, COL

            The ultimate fantasy lottery ticket, how much you value Tulowitzki ultimately depends on how much you value risk and reward. ESPN ranks him at fourteen while Yahoo ranks him at 25, giving you an idea of how much volatility there is in how people think of him. It goes without saying that he’s an injury risk, but in just over 90 games of worked he still finished in the top-100 in overall fantasy value last season. If you could somehow get 145 games out of him in roto, or have him healthy in September for head-to-head leagues, he could single handedly deliver you a title from the weakest position in fantasy sports. For that reason, we wouldn’t scoff at anyone who picked him in the top half of the second round.

Tier-2 = Relatively Reliable

H.Ramirez, BOS

I.Desmond, WAS

            This will likely be the last season Hanley Ramirez ever has shortstop eligibility, and it will be interesting to see if his move to the outfield helps him stay on the field for more games. Ian Desmond has been the most reliable power-speed combo player at shortstop for the last few years, and while we don’t like his potential to submarine your batting average, homers and steals from the shortstop position are a big deal.

Tier-3 = Run More Damnit

J.Reyes, TOR

            Another perpetually injured top-tier shortstop, Reyes could lead the league in runs scored setting the table for a powerful Blue Jays offense if he could stay on the field for 150 games. His lack of elite stolen base totals is what keeps him from Tier-2.

Tier-4 = Reliably Mediocre

A.Ramirez, CHW

E.Andrus, TEX

S.Castro, CHC

            Here are your low-end shortstop options that you actually won’t feel bad about slotting in as your starting shortstop. Hypothetically Castro has the highest ceiling, but it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see the Cubs trade him with all the infield talent they have coming up from the minors.

Tier-5 = Holy Shit Half of These Guys Will Be Starting in a 14-Team League

J.Rollins, LAD

B.Zobrist, OAK

J.Peralta, STL

X.Bogaerts, BOS

J.Baez, CHC 2B

D.Santana, MIN OF

A.Escobar, KC

            Here are your low-end shortstop options that will make you vomit in your mouth a little bit if you pencil them in as your starting short stop. We already covered Baez in our second base roundup. Danny Santana posted a completely unsustainable BABIP in 2014. Future Hall of Famer Xander Bogaerts (just kidding!) has shown a little promise in Spring Training defensively, and has the highest potential of anyone other than Baez in this group.

Tier-6 = Bench Dudes

A.Cabrera, TB 2B

E.Aybar, LAA

J.Segura, MIL

J.Hardy, BAL

E.Cabrera, BAL

J.Lowrie, HOU

            You’ll want at least one of these guys on your bench. Everth Cabrera is a sleeper for the Orioles (he put up some numbers in 2013 before getting popped for steroids use), and we also like Asdrubal Cabrera as a potential (Devil) Rays’ reclamation project.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Drafting/Bidding Tips

            Last year for the first time we posted our fantasy baseball draft guidelines. Most of my though processes are the same going into this year, but there a couple of new theories we’d like to introduce.

Statistical Scarcity is More Important Than Positional Scarcity

            Loyal readers of this blog (all five of you) will recall that every year I write that you should value infielders more than outfielders and wait on pitching. That’s still true to an extent, but for the first time we are placing higher value on hitters with high counting stat ceilings, regardless of position.

            Back in days of rampant steroid use, power hitting was all over the place. In 1998, 33 players eclipsed 30 home runs. Last year, eleven players in all of MLB hit 30+ home runs. In years past, we’ve always ranked guys like Robinson Cano or Troy Tulowitzki high because of the lack of talent at their respective positions, but would you rather have the 14 homers and 82 RBIs Cano put up last year, or the 34 and 98 put up by Edwin Encarnacion despite missing 34 games? Even though first base is deeper, Encarnacion’s counting numbers are far more valuable overall. Having the best second basemen, shortstop, or catcher isn’t the same advantage it was 15 years ago due to the superior stats you could’ve had with a top-flight outfielder or first basemen.

You Need to Understand Your League Rules Before Drafting

            ESPN’s Matthew Berry writes this in all of his draft day manifesto pieces, but it’s so true. Your league’s rules have an immense impact on the value you should place on certain players and positions. Here are the important ones to consider.

-         Is your league rotisserie or head-to-head? If it’s head-to-head, you can spend higher draft picks on players likely to start the year in the minors or on the DL.

-         How many utility spots are in your lineup? If the answer is more than one, you should strongly consider drafting two highly ranked first basemen to accumulate extra power stats.

-         Dynasty league or redraft? Redraft league players should not overvalue prospects, as it’s unlikely they’ll return significant value.

-         What are the pitching requirements and/or limits? Roto leagues with inning caps make it simple to determine how many pitchers you need for the season.

-         Are there additional roster spots for injured players or minor leaguers? Knowing whether or not you can stash Jose Fernandez until June and replace him on the active roster with a healthy pitcher is sort of valuable.

-         How many teams are there? It sounds stupid, but I don’t know how many times I’ve been in drafts where fellow league members were freaking out because they weren’t happy with the players left on the board at third base. In general the more teams there are starting pitchers are less valuable, while relief pitchers are more important.

Runs Matter For Hitters, Which is Weird

            In an era where offense is as pathetic as it has been since the dead ball era, it makes sense that “runs” is an overlooked stat. Consider that in 1998, 39 players cracked 100 runs scored, and 42 had 100 RBIs. In 2014, seven players scored at least 100 runs (seven!), and 12 made it to 100 RBIs. Even though Mike Trout’s stolen base production was down last year, placing first in runs scored and second in RBIs helped him maintain his place as the most valuable offensive fantasy player. Production in these two categories matters more than ever with scoring so scarce.

            Over the next few weeks, we will be posting position-by-position breakdowns (we’re adopting the tier format we’ve used for football the last two years. It worked pretty well for my fantasy football squads, might as well try it with baseball), so be on the lookout for those throughout the month of March.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

2-11 = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, 83 Rs, 19 SBs
            On a per-game basis, no player in fantasy was as valuable as Hanley Ramirez last year. Unfortunately, Hanley has missed way too much time over the past three years. You’re getting a first round talent at a second round (maybe even third depending on how conservative your league mates are) price, but have a back-up plan in place to cover short if he goes down.
       
2-12 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers
2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 35 HRs, 113 RBIs, 89 Rs, 1 SB
            Fielder was a disappointment to both his real team and fantasy teams last season, but a fresh start in Texas is just what the doctor ordered. A return to the 40 home run club isn’t out of the question.
        
2-13 = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
2014 Projection = .305 AVG, 31 HRs, 97 RBIs, 86 Rs, 5 SBs
            Everything I said about Hanley Ramirez applies here. Tulowitzki is lower on my board because he doesn’t provide steals.

2-14 = Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles

2014 Projection = .287 AVG, 32 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 14 SBs
            Jones’ development over the past five years has been fantastic to watch. His ceiling isn’t at an MVP level, but he’s among the most reliable outfielders in fantasy.
         
2-15 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
2014 Projection = .314 AVG, 35 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 Rs, 1 SB
            We wrote last year that Beltre was the most reliable second round pick on the board, and that distinction still applies this year.
         

2-16 = Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 18 HRs, 63 RBIs, 96 Rs, 45 SBs
            Besides the two shortstops we’ve already discussed, Ellsbury is the other player in this round that has the same chance of either carrying or sinking your fantasy team. Logically, it stands to reason that Ellsbury could produce similar numbers to his 2011 campaign if healthy. You can make a case that he should go in the back half of the first round.

2-17 = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

2014 Projection = .327 AVG, 24 HRs, 77 RBIs, 99 Rs, 7 SBs
            Votto would be a surefire first rounder if he can ever rediscover his power stroke.

2-18 = David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

2014 Projection = .303 AVG, 22 HRs, 85 RBIs, 88 Rs, 18 SBs
            Is David Wright the Kevin Love of MLB, or is Kevin Love the David Wright of the NBA? It would be great to see Wright shipped to a contending team.
        
2-19 = Edwin Encarnacion, 1B-3B, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .297 AVG, 37 HRs, 110 RBIs, 97 Rs, 10 SBs
            Last year, you got a “he’s only done it once discount” that let you draft Encarnacion in the third round. This year, is it a “fool me twice” discount? I’d be doing handstands (if I could) if I were able to pair him with either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera.

2-20 = Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers

2014 Projection = 19 Ws, 266 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
            Regardless of what his ERA and WHIP look like, he’s the favorite to lead the league in strikeouts again. Throw in a stronger Rangers team, and Darvish is the clear number two starting pitcher in fantasy.


If you missed Round 1, click here.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Rounds 2-3

Click here if you missed Round 1

2-11 = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 30 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 3-23

            Tulowitzki murdered fantasy teams last year thanks to an injury filled 2012, but when healthy, he’s the only shortstop capable of delivering top-5 overall production. If you’re able to snag him in the third round, pat yourself on the back.

      
2-12 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 233 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            That 16-win projection feels low, unless the Dodgers follow the example set by the Lakers and struggle after making numerous big-time acquisitions.
    
2-13 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 95 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-17
            Fantasy’s top rated player in 2010, Gonzalez should see an upswing in production if Troy Tulowitzki is able to stay on the field on a regular basis.
        
2-14 = Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
ESPN Projections = 20 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 240 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            No one delivers better value combined with such a high volume of innings like Verlander. The dude is a machine.
       
2-15 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .294, 34 HRs, 109 RBIs, 92 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Longoria’s outlook is similar to Troy Tulowitzki’s, with the exception that he plays a much deeper position.
        
2-16 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .313, 34 HRs, 107 RBIs, 95 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 2-20
            Of all our second round position players, Beltre is the safest selection of them all. Which is funny because five years ago he was considered one of the biggest free agent busts of all time.
           
2-17 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
ESPN Projections = .278, 42 HRs, 103 RBIs, 90 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-23
            Those of you in re-draft leagues better not get to excited and take Stanton towards the end of the first round. He could lead the league in homers, but he’s not going to have very many teammates to drive in this year.
        
2-18 = Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = .318, 24 HRs, 98 RBIs, 76 Rs, 2 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Posey’s torrid September carried many a fantasy team to a league championship last year. If you’re a big believer in value relative to position scarcity, Posey will be high on your draft board.
     
2-19 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = 19 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 213 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-25
            If Price weren’t stuck in the AL East, he’d be right up there in the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
 
2-20 = David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
ESPN Projections = .287, 27 HRs, 100 RBIs, 97 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 3-23
            As far as 5-category contributors go, there isn’t a better all-around third basemen in the game than David Wright. If only the team around him didn’t suck so much.

3-21 = Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .281, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 100 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-27
            People are way to excited about Justin getting to play everyday with his brother. If Justin returns to his 2011 form, B.J. won’t be the reason.
          
3-22 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .268, 41 HRs, 108 RBIs, 98 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            If you’re willing to gamble on a player returning from injury, Bautista is you’re man. With the improved Toronto lineup, we could be talking about 50 dingers and 130 RBIs when it’s all said and done.
           
3-23 = Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
ESPN Projections = .293, 34 HRs, 113 RBIs, 93 Rs, 7 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            The way he exited Texas has put too much of a sour taste in my mouth to consider drafting him in the second round, although logically, he has an excellent chance of delivering top-10 value.
           
3-24 = Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .265, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 103 Rs, 21 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-28
            Kinsler used to be one of the larger injury risks in the game, but he’s only missed 12 games the past two seasons and has compiled the most plate appearances of any player in baseball. If you think he can push his average to .280, feel free to take him in the top half of the second round.
           
3-25 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
ESPN Projections = 14 Ws, 3.01 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 225 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-28
            If you are in a league that counts quality starts instead of wins, Hernandez deserves to be pushed up into the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
           
3-26 = Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .283, 36 HRs, 99 RBIs, 93 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-30
            Encarnacion busted out in a huge way in 2012, delivering the 12^th best fantasy campaign of any player. You get the “he’s only done it once, not sure if he can do it again” discount this year if you take him in the third.
           
3-27 = Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = .263, 24 HRs, 83 RBIs, 82 Rs, 26 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 3-30
            It wasn’t that long ago (two years in fact) that Hanley Ramirez was among the first three players taken in every single fantasy draft. Perhaps a full year away from the dysfunction in Miami can return Hanley to his previous form.
           
3-28 = Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .291, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs, 88 Rs, 34 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 4-34
            Joining a powerful Blue Jays lineup would seem to be fortuitous, but having to play his home games on Toronto’s artificial turf won’t be.

           

3-29 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

ESPN Projections = .293, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 92 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-34
            A torrid second half of 2012 gives fantasy owners hope that Pedroia can return to his MVP-winning level of play. Watch where Boston sticks him in the batting order, as that will go a long way in determining his counting stats.
 
3-30 = Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .261, 30 HRs, 96 RBIs, 93 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-36
            Heyward rebounded nicely after a disastrous 2011-sophomore campaign. There’s no reason the addition of the Upton brothers will not enhance Heyward’s fantasy value this year.

Click here to check out rounds 4-5
             

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (3/30-4/1)

10. LOGO Plays “Showgirls” All Day Sunday
            My wife tripped over this one (I swear). The movie is apart of LOGO’s “great American cinema” series. Apparently, LOGO has a much different idea of great filmmaking than the majority of the American public.

9. Red Sox Announce Daniel Bard Will Start Year in Rotation

            Because anytime you can screw up your bullpen on the fleeting chance that a guy who hasn’t started a game in 5 years might be decent at the back end of your rotation, you have to do it.

8. Johan Santana Named Mets Opening Day Starter

            It’s really easy to forget that Santana was once the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Even with him, the Mets will struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, but good for him for returning after missing the entire 2011 season.

7. Ubaldo Jimenez Gets Revenge on Troy Tulowitzki With Fastball to the Elbow

            Aside from the fact that Tulowitzki is on one of my 4 fantasy teams (sadly, I couldn’t tell you which one), I love every part of this story. I like that Ubaldo was pissed off about not getting a contract extension when he was still with the Rockies while Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez did. I love that Tulowitzki basically said that Ubaldo needs to shut the hell up and move on with his career. I love that Rockies manager Jim Tracy went on the record after the incident and said that he has lost all respect for Jimenez. It’s a damn shame that the Rockies and Indians won’t play again this season.

6. Notre Dame Knocks Off Lady Huskies in Overtime

            I didn’t watch a second of this game, but I’m 99% sure that this score results in no Geno Auriemma for several months.

5. Kobe Bryant Goes 3-21 in Lakers Victory Over Hornets

            Thankfully, Kobe’s career worst shooting performance wasn’t enough from preventing the Lakers advancing No Credentials in the Sportsbook $20,000 survivor pool.

4. Celtics Thump Heat

            If every Celtics game were played on Sunday afternoon on ABC, Rajon Rondo would be the greatest point guard in NBA history. 

3. David Reutimann Takes Win 200 Away From Hendrick Motorsports

            It’s not fair to be so hard on Reutimann, who was shooting for the best possible finish to keep his car in the top 35 in owner points, so let’s play it safe and blame NASCAR. Let’s say only the top 25 in points were guaranteed a starting spot every week (there’s really only 20 cars that have a realistic shot to win every race). This would prevent an also ran team like Reutimanns from keeping an ailing car on the race track one lap too long and completely altering the complexion of a race in the final laps. While Sunday’s finish was certainly memorable (Ryan Newman won by the way), we were robbed off a classic 4-lap sprint to the finish between Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. I’ll leave it to you to decide if that outcome would be better than the one we got Sunday.   

2. Anthony Davis and His Uni-Brow Take Over Against Louisville

            If I were a fan of the Bobcats, Wizards, Hornets, Raptors, Cavaliers, or Kings, I’d be cheering for my team to lose every game to get some more ping balls for the draft lottery this May. Anthony Davis is that good.

1. Down Big, Kansas Storms Back to Top Ohio St.

            Jared Sullinger didn’t strike me as the sort of player that could shoot his team out of a victory, but that’s what happened Saturday night. Kansas will be heavy underdogs against Kentucky, but they do have the necessary depth in the frontcourt to give the Wildcats problems.

                                                                                                         

2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1

     Welcome to No Credentials second annual "Nerdfest", a month and a half long series showing how No Credentials would build 12 teams for a non-keeper league fantasy baseball team. My ranks should hold up well for either roto or head-to-head leagues. While this mock is based on a non-keeper league, I will occasionally call out guys who's value should be adjusted if you're building a keeper team, or if you are participating in an auction. Without further ado...

1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
             Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.

1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBs
            Tulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.

1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBs
            Cabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.  

1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays

.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            Two years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.

1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            I’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.

1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBs
            Votto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.

1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBs
            Blame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.

1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBs
            There’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

            To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.

1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SB
            Take 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.

1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SB
            His home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.

1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBs
            Ellsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.

1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIP
            Kershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.            

           

Sunday Draft (2-13-11) 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft - Round 1

This week I'll use the Sunday draft as a springboard for my MLB fantasy mock draft I've been planning on doing for months. Every couple of days, I will post a round or two of a mock draft that would show how I would fill out 12 fantasy baseball teams. This fictional league would be a head-to-head league with standard 5X5 scoring. Each team will have 25 players on it. Without further ado, the first round of my 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft (sponsored by the TI-83 Scientific Calculator).

  

1-1  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals – What make Albert extra scary this year? Two words…contract year.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers – If he didn’t get hurt during the last two weeks of the 2010 season, he would’ve had numbers very similar to Pujols.

1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – The only reason I have him jacked up this high is the combination of the team he’s on plus the position he plays.

1-4  = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to stay healthy and crack 40 home runs.

1-5  = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – I’m not as high on Ramirez as most fantasy experts due to his miscast batting lineup spot (Florida has hit him 3^rd when he should be batting leadoff and stealing 60 bases a year), and the Marlins aren’t exactly the ’27 Yankees. There’s probably no way he slips past the 3^rd pick in any draft you will participate in.

1-6  = Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Longoria is the best player at pretty weak position. Tampa has surrounded Longoria with some solid hitting, so expect Longoria to see a few more fastballs this season.

1-7  = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – Buster Olney wrote the other day that he wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzalez put up 48 homers and 146 RBIs this season. If he does that, than he’s the #2 pick in the 2012 draft. I personally wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him that high this season.

1-8  = Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – His first mostly healthy season produced MVP level numbers. Votto should be a monster again in the middle of a potent Reds’ lineup.

1-9  = Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies – There’s a point in the draft where after a certain number of hitters are off the board, you’re not comfortable with any of the options as your first pick. For me, that point is right here, so instead of feeling uneasy, go ahead and take the best pitcher in the game.

1-10 = Carl Crawford, OF-LF, Red Sox – Crawford produced top-5 fantasy seasons while hitting in Tampa Bay. It’s scary to think what he could do on a loaded Red Sox team (as long as they give him the green light to run). I wouldn’t fault anyone for considering him anywhere from pick 3 on (the only reason I have him so low is because there are so many outfielders).

1-11 = Ryan Braun, OF-LF, Brewers – This pick isn’t all that exciting, but the floor (.280-25-100) is solid enough that he’s a very safe option in the first round. If the Brewers are as good as I think they can be, he becomes a steal at 11.

1-12 = David Wright, 3B, Mets - Sure, the Mets are in financial chaos, and are probably looking at a .500 record or worse competing in the tough NL East. This will not affect Wright. He has a very motivated Jose Reyes hitting in front of him, and should have plenty of RBI chances.