No Credentials Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 3

3-21 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
2014 Projection = .272 AVG, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, 88 Rs, 27 SBs
            Barring an Ian Kinsler throwback season, no second basement will offer a better combination of steals and dingers than Kipnis.

Team 1 Roster = Kipnis, Miguel Cabrera, Yu Darvish

                  
3-22 = Yaisel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 26 HRs, 76 RBIs, 88 Rs, 17 SBs
            We’re probably too excited about Puig-mania from last summer, but regardless of where he hits within the top third of the Dodger lineup, he’s going to produce. There’s a pretty high ceiling here.

Team 2 Roster = Puig, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion

                    
3-23 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
2014 Projection = .270 AVG, 39 HRs, 91 RBIs, 81 Rs, 4 SBs
            Following an injury riddled campaign we think Stanton is in line for a return to his 2012 form. Like Puig, he’s another high ceiling player who realistically could hit 50 home runs.

Team 3 Roster = Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, David Wright

        
3-24 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Projection = .274 AVG, 36 HRs, 106 RBIs, 94 Rs, 3 SBs
            If Wil Myers takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, Longoria will have the best lineup around him since Carl Crawford was in town.

Team 4 Roster = Longoria, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto

                     
3-25 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
2014 Projection = 15 Ws, 223 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
            Forgetting win totals (because people who use wins as a measure of the quality of a starting pitcher are dumb), Strasburg’s 2013 wasn’t as disappointing as some people have made it out to be. He’s the only starter with a realistic chance of competing with Yu Darvish for the strikeout lead.

Team 5 Roster = Strasburg, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury

                      
3-26 = Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
2014 Projection = .302 AVG, 24 HRs, 105 RBIs, 97 Rs, 3 SBs
            Asking Freeman to be the next Chipper Jones, the Braves really could use a power surge from Freeman to push them over the hump in the National League. He stands to benefit the most of the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.

Team 6 Roster = Freeman, Bryce Harper, Adrian Beltre

        
3-27 = Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
2014 Projection = 16 Ws, 231 Ks, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
            Advanced stats say Scherzer will take a step back from his Cy Young winning 2013, but he’s still a strong bet to deliver top-10 value among starting pitchers.

Team 7 Roster = Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones

        
3-28 = Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2014 Projection = .260 AVG, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 87 Rs, 36 SBs
            Gomez felt like a fluke to me last year, which means if you believe in him, you’re getting a one to two round discount.

Team 8 Roster = Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki

                    
3-29 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .266 AVG, 33 HRs, 87 RBIs, 91 Rs, 6 SBs
            It’s hard to see Bautista returning to his peak power numbers, but even the slight chance of a return to that level of production makes him worth a third round pick.

Team 9 Roster = Bautista, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder

 

 



         
3-30 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
2014 Projection = .295 AVG, 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, 98 Rs, 18 SBs
            We’re guessing that Pedroia’s numbers won’t drop off at all without Jacoby Ellsbury hitting in front of him. If anything, he might run a little bit more.

Team 10 Roster = Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Rounds 2-3

Click here if you missed Round 1

2-11 = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 30 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 3-23

            Tulowitzki murdered fantasy teams last year thanks to an injury filled 2012, but when healthy, he’s the only shortstop capable of delivering top-5 overall production. If you’re able to snag him in the third round, pat yourself on the back.

      
2-12 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 233 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            That 16-win projection feels low, unless the Dodgers follow the example set by the Lakers and struggle after making numerous big-time acquisitions.
    
2-13 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
ESPN Projections = .301, 26 HRs, 94 RBIs, 95 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-17
            Fantasy’s top rated player in 2010, Gonzalez should see an upswing in production if Troy Tulowitzki is able to stay on the field on a regular basis.
        
2-14 = Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
ESPN Projections = 20 Ws, 2.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 240 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-15
            No one delivers better value combined with such a high volume of innings like Verlander. The dude is a machine.
       
2-15 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .294, 34 HRs, 109 RBIs, 92 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Longoria’s outlook is similar to Troy Tulowitzki’s, with the exception that he plays a much deeper position.
        
2-16 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .313, 34 HRs, 107 RBIs, 95 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 2-20
            Of all our second round position players, Beltre is the safest selection of them all. Which is funny because five years ago he was considered one of the biggest free agent busts of all time.
           
2-17 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
ESPN Projections = .278, 42 HRs, 103 RBIs, 90 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-23
            Those of you in re-draft leagues better not get to excited and take Stanton towards the end of the first round. He could lead the league in homers, but he’s not going to have very many teammates to drive in this year.
        
2-18 = Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = .318, 24 HRs, 98 RBIs, 76 Rs, 2 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            Posey’s torrid September carried many a fantasy team to a league championship last year. If you’re a big believer in value relative to position scarcity, Posey will be high on your draft board.
     
2-19 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = 19 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 213 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-25
            If Price weren’t stuck in the AL East, he’d be right up there in the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
 
2-20 = David Wright, 3B, New York Mets
ESPN Projections = .287, 27 HRs, 100 RBIs, 97 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-15 through 3-23
            As far as 5-category contributors go, there isn’t a better all-around third basemen in the game than David Wright. If only the team around him didn’t suck so much.

3-21 = Justin Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .281, 28 HRs, 84 RBIs, 100 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-13 through 3-27
            People are way to excited about Justin getting to play everyday with his brother. If Justin returns to his 2011 form, B.J. won’t be the reason.
          
3-22 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .268, 41 HRs, 108 RBIs, 98 Rs, 8 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            If you’re willing to gamble on a player returning from injury, Bautista is you’re man. With the improved Toronto lineup, we could be talking about 50 dingers and 130 RBIs when it’s all said and done.
           
3-23 = Josh Hamilton, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
ESPN Projections = .293, 34 HRs, 113 RBIs, 93 Rs, 7 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 3-23
            The way he exited Texas has put too much of a sour taste in my mouth to consider drafting him in the second round, although logically, he has an excellent chance of delivering top-10 value.
           
3-24 = Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .265, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 103 Rs, 21 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-28
            Kinsler used to be one of the larger injury risks in the game, but he’s only missed 12 games the past two seasons and has compiled the most plate appearances of any player in baseball. If you think he can push his average to .280, feel free to take him in the top half of the second round.
           
3-25 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
ESPN Projections = 14 Ws, 3.01 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 225 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-17 through 3-28
            If you are in a league that counts quality starts instead of wins, Hernandez deserves to be pushed up into the Strasburg-Kershaw-Verlander tier.
           
3-26 = Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .283, 36 HRs, 99 RBIs, 93 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 2-16 through 3-30
            Encarnacion busted out in a huge way in 2012, delivering the 12^th best fantasy campaign of any player. You get the “he’s only done it once, not sure if he can do it again” discount this year if you take him in the third.
           
3-27 = Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
ESPN Projections = .263, 24 HRs, 83 RBIs, 82 Rs, 26 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 3-30
            It wasn’t that long ago (two years in fact) that Hanley Ramirez was among the first three players taken in every single fantasy draft. Perhaps a full year away from the dysfunction in Miami can return Hanley to his previous form.
           
3-28 = Jose Reyes, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = .291, 10 HRs, 47 RBIs, 88 Rs, 34 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-21 through 4-34
            Joining a powerful Blue Jays lineup would seem to be fortuitous, but having to play his home games on Toronto’s artificial turf won’t be.

           

3-29 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

ESPN Projections = .293, 17 HRs, 70 RBIs, 92 Rs, 20 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-34
            A torrid second half of 2012 gives fantasy owners hope that Pedroia can return to his MVP-winning level of play. Watch where Boston sticks him in the batting order, as that will go a long way in determining his counting stats.
 
3-30 = Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .261, 30 HRs, 96 RBIs, 93 Rs, 22 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 3-25 through 4-36
            Heyward rebounded nicely after a disastrous 2011-sophomore campaign. There’s no reason the addition of the Upton brothers will not enhance Heyward’s fantasy value this year.

Click here to check out rounds 4-5
             

No Credentials Keeper Team Player Ranks

            Loyal readers of this blog (all 11 of you) will recall that I used to write periodically about my fantasy baseball team. Why haven’t I done it yet this season? To put it simply, no one other than myself and the nine other people in my keeper league give a shit about it. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to post a ranking of all 35 players currently on my team. We’ll be able to keep 10 players after this year, so the top 10 are the players I would keep if the season ended right now. Just for a refresher, here are the basic league rules and notes.

-         The price of a keeper player is forfeiting whichever draft pick was used on that player originally (with a tax and players who’ve been kept 2+ years, but we don’t need to get into that).

-         We kept 5 after last season, 10 after this year, and will be keeping 15 after 2013 and every year after that.

-         I won the league last year thanks to good fortune during the first half of the season, and a flurry of trades halfway through the season. I was able to acquire Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria via trade, and added an arsenal of pitchers just before the trade deadline. One of the 10 most incredible things I’ve ever accomplished was successfully completing four trades in one day in the same league.

-         Before this year, I kept Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, and Desmond Jennings.

-         Shortly after the season started, I was able to move Johnny Cueto and Jose Valverde for Nelson Cruz (lost that trade so far), and then swapped Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy for Ryan Braun (won that trade big time).

-         Around the start of summer, I was able to acquire Buster Posey and Cliff Lee in two separate deals.

-         Last year, my starting pitching was led by Cole Hamels, James Shields (career year in 2011), Tommy Hanson, Michael Pineda, and Gio Gonzalez. Pineda is the only one of them I was able to get back in the draft, and he’s been stuck on the DL all year. I’ve been punting ERA and WHIP all season. If my offense doesn’t show up, I lose.

-         Last year my team was loaded with minor league prospects. Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, Jacob Turner, and Kyle Gibson were all used to sweeten blockbuster trades, while Eric Hosmer was a nice boost out my utility spot. This year? Not so much. Anthony Rizzo was the only big name I was able to move (in the Cliff Lee trade), but it’s fair to say that Rizzo would’ve been more valuable now than he was when I shipped him out. Trevor Bauer came up after great anticipation, stunk up the joint, and has since been shut down to rest. Dealing with prospects is a fickle mistress.

-         I forgot Adam Jones was on my team last year.

            After the primer, here are the ranks.  

35. Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Picked up the old guy for some bench depth. Not a chance he’s kept for 2013.

34. Travis Blackley, SP, Oakland Athletics

            I wouldn’t know who Travis Blackley was if he came into my house with a t-shirt that read, “Hi, my name is Travis Blackley.” He’s filling a spot until a couple of my DL guys come back.

33. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves

            It feels like Teheran has been Atlanta’s top pitching prospect for 10 years.

32. Bobby Parnell, RP, New York Mets

31. Frank Francisco, RP, New York Mets
            Parnell is only on board until Francisco returns from the DL. I don’t pay for saves, especially from erratic relievers.

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs

            If you read the previous paragraph carefully, you’ll know why Marmol is ranked at 30.

29. Erik Bedard, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            A brittle pitcher his entire career, Bedard has been shockingly healthy all season long for the resurgent Pirates. He throws out some stinkers, but his K rate is good enough to warrant keeping him around this season.

28. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Oakland Athletics

            He’d be ranked in the top-15 if he could stay healthy for more than a month at a time.

27. Felix Doubront, SP, Boston Red Sox

            Hey, at least he’s better than Jon Lester.

26. Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins

            The best reliever that is apart of Miami’s “closer-by-committee”, Cishek will be in line for even more saves if Heath Bell is shipped out of town.

25. Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins

            The top prospect acquired by Miami when they shipped Annabel Sanchez to the Tigers, Turner should be back up in the majors after the trade deadline.

24. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees

            Best known as “the guy with the bum arm that Seattle was able to pawn off on the Yankees for Jesus Montero”, Pineda should be at full strength for the start of 2013.

23. J.J. Putz, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Since reinforcement is the key to learning, I’ll say it again… I won’t pay for saves.

22. Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            The top pitching prospect in the majors, Bauer had some issues with control in his first few MLB starts, and has now been given a break to rest his arm. Hopefully he’s back in the Diamondbacks rotation in September.

21. Daniel Murphy, 1B-2B-3B, New York Mets

            Murphy is the kind of unsung guy that can boost your team to a fantasy championship. He’s not flashy, but he’s a solid .300 hitter that can fill in three infield spots. Due to Evan Longoria’s health issues, he’s played a lot at 3B.

20. Wil Myers, C-OF, Kansas City Royals

            Myers is the top minor league prospect left on No Cred At All, but unfortunately doesn’t have an open spot in the Royals outfield. Not to mention that he’s 0 for his last 80 in Triple-A.

19. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Miami Marlins

            No Cred’s swift army knife, Bonifacio racks up the steals whenever he is in the lineup.

18. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

            Alvarez is an all or nothing slugger who if he ever figures it out, has the potential to be a 40-homer a year player.

17. Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

            I drafted Rasmus last year, traded him before last year’s deadline, and then was able to scoop him up off waivers this season. He’s streaky, but when he’s hot, he can single-handedly win a week.

16. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

            No Credentials still won’t pay for saves, but Papelbon is my all-time favorite Red Sox reliever, so we’ll pay him some respect and put him inside the top-20.

15. Trevor Cahill, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Cahill would be much better off if he didn’t have to pitch in Arizona, which is a problem when he plays for the Diamondbacks.

14. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

            Acquired early in the season, Cruz has been the biggest disappointment for No Credentials. 

13. Jonathan Niese, SP, New York Mets

            The fact that Niese ranks this high on my list makes me seriously doubt my team’s championship chances this year.

12. Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees

            After a miserable 2011, Hughes has rebounded to have a serviceable season. He’d be a shoe-in for the top-10 if he could figure out how to stop giving up gopher balls.

11. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

            Moore has unquestioned stuff, and recently has figured out how to more consistently throw strikes. A strong final two months by Moore will easily push him into the top-10.

10. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            I made a trade for Lee in early June, which means my team has collected 100% of his wins this season. Unfortunately, that only amounts to one. No Credentials is cheering hard for a panic trade to the Rangers.

9. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians

            Figured he’d be just a one-year rental, but Choo’s success in the leadoff spot has pushed him ahead of Nelson Cruz on the outfield depth chart.

8. James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            The waiver wire pick-up of the year for No Credentials, McDonald has been the lone ray of consistency in the No Credentials starting rotation. He’s hit a rough patch since the All-Star break, but look for him to bounce back soon for the resurgent Pirates.

7. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            Andrus was the one player that I absolutely had to draft this year, and was fortunate to get him at the start of the fourth round with my first available draft pick. An improved eye at the plate has allowed Andrus to post a career high .370 on-base percentage. Incredibly he’s playing his fourth season in baseball, and he’s only 23 years old.

6. Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
            Posey was a mid-season trade acquisition (which the other team received among other things, Ted Lilly, who I’m pretty sure made exactly one start for his new team. Sorry Ethan) who solidified the poop sandwich I was rolling out at catcher every night.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins

            Stanton was having a breakout campaign before a balky knee sidelined him until sometime in August.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

            An RBI machine in April, Longoria tore his hamstring and hasn’t seen the field since. A return this week will be a welcome pick me up. 

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

            Hasn’t cranked out the normal amount of dingers, but Fielder has done everything else in his first season with the Tigers. To think that I almost ditched him and kept Eric Hosmer for 2012. Yikes.

2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

            It doesn’t really make sense how Ryan Braun ended up on my team, but let me run through the details. Before the season, the owner that had the rights to him chose not to keep him (which at the time seemed laughable, but the player he kept instead was Mike Trout, which only cost a thirtieth round pick. That decision worked out). My friend Ethan won the first overall pick in our preseason draft lottery (don’t ask), and wisely used it on Braun. Unfortunately for him, either alcohol or foolhardiness caused him to trade Braun to me for Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy. That’s right, an outfielder who’s barely hitting .240 and a pitcher who’s thrown up a mediocre 4.20 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. In defense of him, Jennings was a fourth round pick in redraft leagues that he would be able to keep at the price of a thirtieth round pick n year, and Kennedy was one of the best ten pitchers in baseball last year. Needless to say, Braun has been the MVP of No Cred At All. Without him, we never would’ve survived the early season struggles of Fielder and Robinson Cano.

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

            Cano hasn’t been better than Braun this season, but he’s far and away the top second baseman in baseball. The difference in value between Cano and the tenth best 2B is much greater than the difference between the top first baseman and the tenth best 1B. 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1

     Welcome to No Credentials second annual "Nerdfest", a month and a half long series showing how No Credentials would build 12 teams for a non-keeper league fantasy baseball team. My ranks should hold up well for either roto or head-to-head leagues. While this mock is based on a non-keeper league, I will occasionally call out guys who's value should be adjusted if you're building a keeper team, or if you are participating in an auction. Without further ado...

1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
             Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.

1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBs
            Tulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.

1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBs
            Cabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.  

1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays

.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            Two years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.

1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            I’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.

1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBs
            Votto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.

1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBs
            Blame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.

1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBs
            There’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

            To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.

1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SB
            Take 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.

1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SB
            His home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.

1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBs
            Ellsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.

1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIP
            Kershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.            

           

Why I Could Care Less About the Red Sox and MLB

            At the time I’m starting to write this, it’s been roughly 22 hours since the completion of the most epic collapse in baseball history. My interest in baseball has been waning considerably over the past four years, but Wednesday night’s events were enough to suck me back in (EDITORS NOTE: By sucked back in, I mean following the nights action through my fantasy baseball team, because my keeper league team was in position to win a championship. Sadly, my fantasy team is more important than the Red Sox. More on that later). While Papelbon was throwing batting practice fastballs down the heart of the plate, one question kept popping into my head… why don’t I care?

              Longer than I remember, I always was a Red Sox fan. Somehow in my early years, Mike Greenwell was my favorite player (a career .303 hitter, 130 homers, 726 RBIs). Perhaps it was his 1988 season where he finished second to Jose Canseco in the AL MVP voting that sucked me in, although I was three years old in 1988, so I doubt I had much of an understanding of that sort of thing. Ages 10-13 are when my sports interest began increasing exponentially by the day, which was right at the beginning of the Nomar-Pedro era. The most enjoyable sports viewing experience of my life was the 2004 playoff run, with games four and five of the ALCS standing out the most. Over a 30-hour period, it felt like the Sox and Yankees played for 15 of them. It was truly magical stuff (years later we would find out that a lot of it was scientific stuff due to the amount of steroids that were used by both teams, but we didn’t know that at the time). Sadly though, my love of baseball and the Red Sox is on life support. In no particular reason, here are the reasons why I could’ve given a rat’s ass if Boston won or lost this past Wednesday.

- Baseball Games Take Too Long (most of the time)

            This one really hit home during the 2010 World Cup. I’m not much of a soccer guy, but I knew that when a game started at 2pm, the game would be over in roughly two hours. Baseball purists will argue that the beauty of America’s pastime is that the game could literally go on forever, but it’s a problem when games actually feel like they will last forever. Especially since the “Moneyball” method has become the predominant approach of major league clubs (working the pitch count to draw walks and wear down opposing pitchers), you’re lucky to see a Red Sox-Yankees game that takes under three hours. Call me a stick in the mud, but I’m at a point in life where I like to have a good idea of when something is going to end.

- The Economic Structure of Baseball is Broken

            Last year, the Super Bowl winning team came from a town with an estimated population of 104,057. If a baseball team were in Green Bay, it would be lucky to have a payroll over $20 million. The only chance this fictional Green Bay baseball team would have of competing would be to nail the draft for two or three years, and then hope all of the prospects hit the majors at the same time for a two year window before they are all eligible for free agency and sign with other teams for more money. Call me crazy, but I’ll take the economics of the NFL (where cities like Green Bay and Kansas City have enjoyed success) over MLB everyday and twice on Sunday.  And to spin it back to my issues with the Red Sox, how am I supposed to feel bad that a team that spent $100 million less than them overtook them for a wildcard spot?

- Fantasy Baseball is Much More Interesting

            A selfish reason, but the bottom line is I was much happier about Evan Longoria’s September in regards to my fantasy team than I was bummed out about his performance leading Tampa over the Red Sox.

- I Don’t Have Enough Time to Follow 162 Games

            Back in junior high school, there wasn’t a sports event that I missed. As I’ve gotten older though, I’ve had to cross a few things off the list. College football was the first to go because of working every Saturday during high school. The lack of a playoff combined with the corruption across the major programs make me very happy about that decision. NHL was next thanks to the lockout and the games being on a network that I didn’t have for four years (look for a huge NHL comeback in the Muir household this season though. Stupid NBA). With working full-time and having a family, I can’t make the time to watch well over 20 hours of Red Sox baseball per week. It would be one thing if the game was more entertaining, but we’ll leave that discussion for the next bullet point.

- Steroids Era Baseball Was Better

            I’m in the minority (although maybe not based on the major decline in MLB television Ratings and attendance), but I loved steroids baseball. Watching Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds blast 500+ foot home runs was breathtaking. I don’t care what chemicals they used to hit them. Remember McGwire in the 1999 Home Run Derby at Fenway Park? I’d link to the video of it, but MLB is dumb and won’t allow their videos uploaded on YouTube. You’ll just have to trust me that it was damn good television.

- I Have Little Respect For the “Dominance” of Pitching

            For any moron that wants to blame the decline in offense on the “great depth” of pitching in baseball today, I’d first like to show you the stats Greg Maddux put up during his prime (his final year with the Cubs and first six with Atlanta).

YR	GP	CG	SHO	IP	W	L	SO	ERA	WHIP
1992	35	9	4	268	20	11	199	2.18	1.01
1993	36	8	1	267	20	10	197	2.36	1.05
1994	25	10	3	202	16	6	156	1.56	0.90
1995	28	10	3	209.2	19	2	181	1.63	0.81
1996	35	5	1	245	15	11	172	2.72	1.03
1997	33	5	2	232.2	19	4	177	2.20	0.95
1998	34	9	5	251	18	9	204	2.22	0.98

            Next, let’s take a look at Pedro Martinez from 1997 (his final season with Montreal) through his first six seasons with the Red Sox.

YR	GP	CG	SHO	IP	W	L	SO	ERA	WHIP
1997	31	13	4	241.1	17	8	305	1.90	0.93
1998	33	3	2	233.2	19	7	251	2.89	1.09
1999	31	5	1	213.1	23	4	313	2.07	0.92
2000	29	7	4	217	18	6	284	1.74	0.74
2001	18	1	0	116.2	7	3	163	2.39	0.93
2002	30	2	0	199.1	20	4	239	2.26	0.92
2003	29	3	0	186.2	14	4	206	2.22	1.04

            Keep in mind that these two men were pitching against guerilla juiceheads that can now only be found on “Jersey Shore”. Pitching against the chem.-free hitters of today, Pedro and Maddux probably could have sub 1.00 ERAs.

            Thanks to Terry Francona for letting his pitchers get wasted in the clubhouse on their days off. Thanks to Carl Crawford for woefully underachieving (the poor guy should’ve signed with Anaheim. Money isn’t everything). Thanks to the Boston season mercifully ending, I will watch football on Sundays in peace, which is what I would’ve done anyway, but now four percent of me won’t feel guilty about ignoring the Sox.