2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW

P.Goldschmidt, ARI

A.Rizzo, CHC

J.Bautista, TOR OF

M.Cabrera, DET 3B

E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL

A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B

P.Fielder, TEX

B.Posey, SF C

D.Ortiz, BOS

A.Pujols, LAA

V.Martinez, DET

J.Lucroy, MIL C

C.Santana, CLE C-3B

J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B

C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL

E.Hosmer, KC

R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF

B.Moss, CLE OF

S.Pearce, BAL OF

L.Duda, NYM

M.Trumbo, ARI OF

A.LaRoche, CHW

C.Headley, NYY 3B

M.Napoli, BOS

M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

No Credentials Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 3

3-21 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
2014 Projection = .272 AVG, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, 88 Rs, 27 SBs
            Barring an Ian Kinsler throwback season, no second basement will offer a better combination of steals and dingers than Kipnis.

Team 1 Roster = Kipnis, Miguel Cabrera, Yu Darvish

                  
3-22 = Yaisel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 26 HRs, 76 RBIs, 88 Rs, 17 SBs
            We’re probably too excited about Puig-mania from last summer, but regardless of where he hits within the top third of the Dodger lineup, he’s going to produce. There’s a pretty high ceiling here.

Team 2 Roster = Puig, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion

                    
3-23 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
2014 Projection = .270 AVG, 39 HRs, 91 RBIs, 81 Rs, 4 SBs
            Following an injury riddled campaign we think Stanton is in line for a return to his 2012 form. Like Puig, he’s another high ceiling player who realistically could hit 50 home runs.

Team 3 Roster = Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, David Wright

        
3-24 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Projection = .274 AVG, 36 HRs, 106 RBIs, 94 Rs, 3 SBs
            If Wil Myers takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, Longoria will have the best lineup around him since Carl Crawford was in town.

Team 4 Roster = Longoria, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto

                     
3-25 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
2014 Projection = 15 Ws, 223 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
            Forgetting win totals (because people who use wins as a measure of the quality of a starting pitcher are dumb), Strasburg’s 2013 wasn’t as disappointing as some people have made it out to be. He’s the only starter with a realistic chance of competing with Yu Darvish for the strikeout lead.

Team 5 Roster = Strasburg, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury

                      
3-26 = Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
2014 Projection = .302 AVG, 24 HRs, 105 RBIs, 97 Rs, 3 SBs
            Asking Freeman to be the next Chipper Jones, the Braves really could use a power surge from Freeman to push them over the hump in the National League. He stands to benefit the most of the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.

Team 6 Roster = Freeman, Bryce Harper, Adrian Beltre

        
3-27 = Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
2014 Projection = 16 Ws, 231 Ks, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
            Advanced stats say Scherzer will take a step back from his Cy Young winning 2013, but he’s still a strong bet to deliver top-10 value among starting pitchers.

Team 7 Roster = Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones

        
3-28 = Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2014 Projection = .260 AVG, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 87 Rs, 36 SBs
            Gomez felt like a fluke to me last year, which means if you believe in him, you’re getting a one to two round discount.

Team 8 Roster = Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki

                    
3-29 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .266 AVG, 33 HRs, 87 RBIs, 91 Rs, 6 SBs
            It’s hard to see Bautista returning to his peak power numbers, but even the slight chance of a return to that level of production makes him worth a third round pick.

Team 9 Roster = Bautista, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder

 

 



         
3-30 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
2014 Projection = .295 AVG, 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, 98 Rs, 18 SBs
            We’re guessing that Pedroia’s numbers won’t drop off at all without Jacoby Ellsbury hitting in front of him. If anything, he might run a little bit more.

Team 10 Roster = Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez

Sunday Draft (3-13-11) Rounds 18-21 of the Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

18-205 = Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds – Even if Chapman doesn’t overtake Francisco Cordero at some point for the closing gig, he’s still a great source of strikeouts out of your relief pitcher spot.

18-206 = Manny Ramirez, LF, Rays – For what it’s worth, scouts are saying Ramirez has much greater bat-speed this spring than he has the past two years.

18-207 = Omar Infante, 2B-3B-SS-LF-RF, Marlins – Acquired in the Dan Uggla trade, Infante should see regular at-bats from the 2 hole for Florida.

18-208 = Chris Sale, RP, White Sox – Even if Matt Thornton (who has never been a full-time closer) earns the closer role, Sale still will provide quality ratios and strikeouts.

18-209 = Carlos Zambrano, SP-RP, Cubs – While certainly a loose cannon, Zambrano does have the talent to be an elite starting pitcher.

18-210 = Alfonso Soriano, LF, Cubs – Soriano’s stats have been steadily declining over the past four seasons, but the 18^th round isn’t a bad spot to see if he has any life left.

18-211 = Hong Chi Kuo, RP, Dodgers – If Jonathan Broxton’s second half struggles spill into this season, Kuo will take over closing duties for Los Angeles.

18-212 = Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies – I hate this pick even more after word is out that Stewart will likely begin the season on the DL.

18-213 = Derek Holland, SP, Rangers – I have an irrational man-crush on Holland.

18-214 = Jonny Venters, RP, Braves – Like the first three relievers, Venters is more than likely the second option for the closer job.

18-215 = Jason Bay, LF, Mets – Don’t expect 30+ homers ever again, but seeing Bay rebound to hit 20 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

18-216 = Jake Peavy, SP, White Sox – Peavy is coming off shoulder surgery, but is a solid buy-low candidate who has the potential to deliver top-20 value.

19-217 = Carlos Pena, 1B, Cubs – Has the potential to hit 30+ home runs, but he will be a parachute for your batting average (.241 career hitter, .196 in 2010).

19-218 = Tim Stauffer, SP-RP, Padres – Portland, ME, native Tim Stauffer is a very solid sleeper going into 2011. He keeps the ball on the ground, and has the luxury of pitching his home games in San Diego.

19-219 = Yunel Escobar, SS, Blue Jays – Every year it seems like Toronto has some random dude bust out and hit 30, 40, or even 50 home runs in a season. Escobar could be that guy in 2011.

19-220 = James Shields, SP, Rays – Shields was a victim of terrible luck last season (a .341 BABIP was insanely high), and is a great buy-low option.

19-221 = Adam Jones, CF, Orioles – Has all the tools but needs to show more patience at the plate.

19-222 = John Lackey, SP, Red Sox – Lackey had issues during his first year for the Sox, but has the talent (and the offense supporting him) to put together an 18 win season.

19-223 = Scott Rolen, 3B, Reds – Doesn’t strike out much, and is a solid bet to finish the year with 20 home runs.

19-224 = Edwin Jackson, SP, White Sox – He’s wild, but actually showed some consistency after getting traded from Arizona to Chicago.

19-225 = Clayton Richard, SP, Padres – Richard doesn’t have great stuff, but his home park helps keep his overall ERA down.

19-226 = Anibal Sanchez, SP, Marlins – Not a ton of upside, but Sanchez will give you a solid 200 innings.

19-227 = Ty Wigginton, 1B-2B-3B, Rockies – Wigginton will start the year manning 3^rd, and should be able to find regular at-bats for a solid Colorado team.

19-228 = Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox – Floyd’s 2010 was ruined by a shoulder injury, but he appears healthy so far this spring.

20-229 = David Freese, 3B, Cardinals – Freese is an interesting option late in drafts who has potential to hit 25 home runs.

20-230 = Jake McGee, RP, Rays – Rays manager Joe Maddon likes to use the closer-by-committee approach, but he’d be a fool not to use his most talented arm in the bullpen the majority of the time.

20-231 = Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners – Classic post-hype sleeper.

20-232 = Carl Pavano, SP, Twins – If a Yankees fan is ever getting on your nerves, ask him/her how the Carl Pavano era went for them.

20-233 = Marco Scutaro, 2B-SS, Red Sox – He’s a safe bet to rack up at least 90 runs scored no matter where he hits in the lineup.

20-234 = Homer Bailey, SP, Reds – He’s been viewed as a bust for the past few years, but one should remember he’s only 24 years old.

20-235 = Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Marlins – You shouldn’t expect him to be a star, but Sanchez can deliver solid numbers for a backup corner infielder.

20-236 = Brandon League, RP, Mariners – League is expected to hold down the closer role until David Aardsma is healthy.

20-237 = Coco Crisp, CF, Athletics – He’s usually hurt, but when he isn’t, he runs like a banshee.

20-238 = Scott Baker, SP, Twins – Gives up to many homers to justify taking him any earlier than the 17^th round. A mediocre pitcher who happens to be employed by a good team.

20-239 = Ryan Theriot, 2B-SS, Cardinals – Theriot is a good target to backup your middle infielders. He could produce better than expected value if he can earn one of the top two spots in the Cardinals lineup.

20-240 = Brian Duensing, SP-RP, Twins – Expect his ERA to be closer to 4 than 3, but he should have a shot at plenty of wins pitching for Minnesota.

21-241 = Miguel Tejada, 3B-SS, Giants – His glory days in Oakland are long gone, but he’s a solid guy to have on your bench.

21-242 = Jon Garland, SP, Dodgers – Garland will miss the first couple of weeks due to an oblique strain. Check on the number of DL spots your league allows (if any) before committing a roster spot to him.

21-243 = A.J. Burnett, SP, Yankees – Burnett has become a punch line, but still has the talent to be a solid number 2 starter. He’s worth a gamble at some point in your draft.

21-244 = Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves – If he delivers a 3.75 ERA, you’ll be happy with the price you paid for him (currently going 223^rd in ESPN leagues).

21-245 = Randy Wolf, SP, Brewers – I’m expecting Wolf to be better adjusted to Milwaukee going into his second season with the club. It will help that he’s the fourth starter on this staff.

21-246 = Jhonny Peralta, 3B-SS, Tigers – Peralta looked comfortable in Detroit after being acquired by the Tigers during the season.

21-247 = Dallas Braden, SP, Athletics – Braden will always be remembered as the pitcher who’s grandmother called out Alex Rodriguez.

21-248 = Travis Wood, SP, Reds – He isn’t sexy but he throws strikes and doesn’t walk people.

21-249 = Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves – The 21-year old rookie is hitting .458 so far in Spring Training.

21-250 = Tommy Hunter, SP, Rangers – He doesn’t rack up strikeouts, but his presence on a contending team makes him a late-round target.

21-251 = Derek Lowe, SP, Braves – Lowe is an old warhorse that still is capable of giving 200 solid innings.

21-252 = J.A. Happ, SP, Astros – Happ was solid after being sent from Philadelphia to Houston in the Roy Oswalt trade.