No Credentials Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 3

3-21 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
2014 Projection = .272 AVG, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, 88 Rs, 27 SBs
            Barring an Ian Kinsler throwback season, no second basement will offer a better combination of steals and dingers than Kipnis.

Team 1 Roster = Kipnis, Miguel Cabrera, Yu Darvish

                  
3-22 = Yaisel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 26 HRs, 76 RBIs, 88 Rs, 17 SBs
            We’re probably too excited about Puig-mania from last summer, but regardless of where he hits within the top third of the Dodger lineup, he’s going to produce. There’s a pretty high ceiling here.

Team 2 Roster = Puig, Mike Trout, Edwin Encarnacion

                    
3-23 = Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
2014 Projection = .270 AVG, 39 HRs, 91 RBIs, 81 Rs, 4 SBs
            Following an injury riddled campaign we think Stanton is in line for a return to his 2012 form. Like Puig, he’s another high ceiling player who realistically could hit 50 home runs.

Team 3 Roster = Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, David Wright

        
3-24 = Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
2014 Projection = .274 AVG, 36 HRs, 106 RBIs, 94 Rs, 3 SBs
            If Wil Myers takes a step forward in his sophomore campaign, Longoria will have the best lineup around him since Carl Crawford was in town.

Team 4 Roster = Longoria, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto

                     
3-25 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
2014 Projection = 15 Ws, 223 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
            Forgetting win totals (because people who use wins as a measure of the quality of a starting pitcher are dumb), Strasburg’s 2013 wasn’t as disappointing as some people have made it out to be. He’s the only starter with a realistic chance of competing with Yu Darvish for the strikeout lead.

Team 5 Roster = Strasburg, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury

                      
3-26 = Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
2014 Projection = .302 AVG, 24 HRs, 105 RBIs, 97 Rs, 3 SBs
            Asking Freeman to be the next Chipper Jones, the Braves really could use a power surge from Freeman to push them over the hump in the National League. He stands to benefit the most of the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward bounce back from disappointing 2013 seasons.

Team 6 Roster = Freeman, Bryce Harper, Adrian Beltre

        
3-27 = Max Scherzer, SP, Detroit Tigers
2014 Projection = 16 Ws, 231 Ks, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
            Advanced stats say Scherzer will take a step back from his Cy Young winning 2013, but he’s still a strong bet to deliver top-10 value among starting pitchers.

Team 7 Roster = Scherzer, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones

        
3-28 = Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2014 Projection = .260 AVG, 23 HRs, 68 RBIs, 87 Rs, 36 SBs
            Gomez felt like a fluke to me last year, which means if you believe in him, you’re getting a one to two round discount.

Team 8 Roster = Gomez, Andrew McCutchen, Troy Tulowitzki

                    
3-29 = Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .266 AVG, 33 HRs, 87 RBIs, 91 Rs, 6 SBs
            It’s hard to see Bautista returning to his peak power numbers, but even the slight chance of a return to that level of production makes him worth a third round pick.

Team 9 Roster = Bautista, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder

 

 



         
3-30 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
2014 Projection = .295 AVG, 16 HRs, 76 RBIs, 98 Rs, 18 SBs
            We’re guessing that Pedroia’s numbers won’t drop off at all without Jacoby Ellsbury hitting in front of him. If anything, he might run a little bit more.

Team 10 Roster = Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

     Welcome to the third annual fantasy baseball mock draft. Today we start the tedious task of building ten individual fantasy teams from scratch. The format for this fake league is a standard, single-year 10-team head-to-head league with 5 x 5 scoring (I think we just set the record for nerdiest sentence in No Credentials history). I make each individual pick myself, without any bias to any of the ten teams. In other words, I try to make the best choice for each team with every given selection. Each roster will be 25 players deep, which is larger than your standard leagues, but will allow me to cover a few more "sleeper" picks (I put sleeper in quotes because if you do enough research, you'll find eleventybillion articles on who experts think will be "sleepers" this year. By the way, research means "doing a Google search" in the world of No Credentials).
     Before we get started, I'll share a few of my basic principles that I will draft my teams with this season. These principles apply for all rounds of the draft.

1. With the lack of offense in the non-steroids era, I will generally wait on starting pitching. I prefer to have one staff ace picked in the first five rounds, but don't mind waiting until as late as the tenth round to take a second starter.
2. Ditto for closers. With a little foresight, saves can always be found during the season.
3. Infielders are more valuable than outfielders, as there simply isn't a whole lot of depth at any of the infield spots. Even first base, which traditionally has been the deepest position in fantasy for years, doesn't look as sexy after Pujols-Votto-Fielder come off the board. I'll happily try to plug one or two holes in my outfield during the season via trade or the waiver wire if it means I have a solid group of infielders I can rely on.

     Without further ado, the first round...

 

1-1  = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .285, 22 HRs, 69 RBIs, 112 Rs. 46 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            I see where regression is certainly possible from Trout’s unbelievable .326-30-83-129-49 line, but even if his batting average were to drop 40 points, the added month of play should keep his counting stats high. If he hits for less power, that will probably translate to more steals. No matter which way you slice it Trout will be a top-5 fantasy producer.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .336, 39 HRs, 127 RBIs, 116 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Coming off the first Triple Crown winning season in 46 years, Cabrera has a solid chance of repeating the feat with the additions of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez to the line-up.
 
1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = .313, 33 HRs, 109 RBIs, 106 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-2 through 1-4
            Cano’s level of production at second base is unparalleled among his peers. If New York makes the post season, pencil him in as your AL MVP.
 
1-4  = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ESPN Projections = .319, 36 HRs, 111 RBIs, 108 Rs, 29 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Braun already has delivered one outstanding season while dealing with PED allegations, so there’s no reason to believe that his link to a Florida steroids dealer will impact him this year.

1-5  = Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .313, 35 HRs, 116 RBIs, 97 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 1-10
            We already talked about what Detroit’s off-season acquisitions could do for Miguel Cabrera, but they should be even more valuable for Prince Fielder. Expect him to see a few more fastballs to crank out of the park this year.

1-6  = Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Projections = .297, 33 HRs, 103 RBIs, 98 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-11
            Kemp might not steal 39 bases like he did in 2011 ever again, but if healthy, 40 dingers, 120 RBIs, and 115 Rs are in play with Adrian Gonzalez hitting behind him.
 
1-7  = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ESPN Projections = .299, 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 101 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-15
            If we could somehow transport McCutchen to a team with an actual clean-up hitter, we’d be talking about a potential top overall pick. For now, he’s a plus 5-category contributor who is just entering his prime.

1-8  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .300, 34 HRs, 115 RBIs, 102 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-12
            Pujols isn’t the level of player he used to be (to be honest, who is? Pujols was ridiculous in his prime with St. Louis), but there’s a strong possibility his second season in the American League will go better than the first.
 

1-9  = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

ESPN Projections = .320, 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-7 through 2-18
           The riskiest pick of this first round group, Votto needs to demonstrate his power has returned before you should consider making him the centerpiece of your fantasy team. No Credentials is stepping out on a limb and predicting he will return to his pre-injury form of a year ago, but watch him closely in Spring Training.
 
1-10 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 234 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-20
            Hopefully freed of the innings limit that that took him out of the Nationals stretch run (it’s sort of like “Django Unchained”, minus the slavery), Strasburg will be fully unleashed on the National League. I’m more bullish on him than most experts, predicting that his ERA lands somewhere in the 2.80 range. Being able to contribute for the whole season will benefit him immensely.

Click here to check out the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the mock draft



10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (5/18-5/20)

10. Kerry Wood Strikes Out a Dude, Then Retires
            Wood’s decision to retire after a strikeout is one of the coolest baseball stories of the past decade. Call me crazy, but I think he took a page out of the George Costanza playbook in deciding to leave on a high note.

9. Jimmie Johnson Wins All-Star Race

            Thanks to the ill-fated format change (on paper rewarding winners of each segment with a prime starting spot for the final 10 laps wasn’t a horrendous idea, except for once Jimmie Johnson won the first segment, he had no reason to drive hard for the next 60 laps), this race will go down as the most hated All-Star race in history. To erase any ill will created by Saturday night’s debacle, here’s the classic finish of “One Hot Night”, the first Motorsports race run under the lights on a super-speedway.

8. Chelsea Wins First Champions League Title

            Heroics by Didier Drogba (a legend in EA Sports FIFA games for years) carried Chelsea to an unlikely victory over Bayern Munich.

7. Lebron and Wade Combine For 70 Points to Lead Miami to Game 4 Win

            Apparently it took a desperate situation to bring out the best in Miami’s dynamic duo. In a series where Indiana now probably has the 3^rd-10^th best players, they’ll need to carry their momentum into Game 5.

6. Strasburg Ks 8 in Five Innings, Also Hits a Home Run

            With as talented as Strasburg is, I’m shocked he didn’t also come up with a cure for cancer during his start Sunday against Baltimore.

5. Spurs Sweep Clippers

             There isn’t a hotter team in the NBA than the oldest team in the NBA not named the Boston Celtics.

4. Celtics Blow 15-Point Lead, Let 76ers Even Series

            Thankfully, Boston got their act together in Game 5.

3. Papelbon Records Save in First Career Appearance Against Red Sox

            After their former closer (who apparently Boston couldn’t afford because you know, they don’t have much money or anything) shut them down in an embarrassing loss, it was imperative for Boston to sweep the weekend games.

2. I’ll Have Another Wins Another Race

            I wish I could take as much credit for I’ll Have Another’s success in the Preakness like I did with the Kentucky Derby, but I waffled a little bit and threw him and Bodemiester in a two horse parlay (which won, thank you very much). No Credentials will be cheering I.H.A. on when he attempts to win the first Triple Crown in 34 years at the Belmont.

1. Durant Buries The Lakers, Thunder Take 3-1 Series Lead   

            If not for some shady calls by refs Friday night, we’d be talking about an Oklahoma City sweep. Kevin Durant is clearly the best player in this series (his effectiveness on the defensive end appears to be growing with every game), and Russell Westbrook is making a case that he’s the second. There battle with the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals will be one for the ages. 

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

            It’s been a little while since the last installment so if you want a refresher on who got taken already, click here for round 1, and here for rounds 2-3.

4-37 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            You’re not going to get any homers, but he’s the safest source of steals the shortstop position has to offer.

4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            Advanced metrics indicate that Greinke is a fantastic buy-low candidate (if a pick within the fourth or fifth rounds can be considered “buy-low”). Redraft league participants should consider the merits of taking Greinke as your staff ace two rounds later than you would have to take Felix Hernandez.

4-39 = Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

            Lawrie has all the raw tools to succeed, it’s just a matter of if he can live up to the hype or not. In a redraft league, he’s probably not worth the risk of using such a high pick on him.

4-40 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

            Castro is a hitting machine, and an up tick in the stolen base department could make him a second round pick at this time next year.

4-41 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

            The only thing that will keep Strasburg from finishing the season as a top-5 fantasy pitcher will be the Nationals limiting his innings.

4-42 = Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Haren is a notorious fast starter/poor finisher (that’s what she said), but the addition of Mr. Pujols should generate an extra win or two or three.

4-43 = Matt Holiday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Those of you worried about Holiday’s ability to anchor the Cardinals lineup should remember that he was the best hitter on a Rockies team that went to the World Series in 2007.

4-44 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

            I’ve owned Zimmerman twice, and I think he spent a combined 753 games on the DL. He’s a nice player when he’s healthy, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Washington would pay him $100 million.

4-45 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians

            Displaying arguably the most advanced plate approach of any young player in the game last season, Santana is due for a fairly substantial increase from his 2011 batting average, which also has the potential to translate into 30 dingers.

4-46 = Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

            Keep in mind that at the time I made these picks, Braun was facing a 50 game suspension, and I still had him at 46. It’s a little concerning losing Prince Fielder’s bat behind him, but Braun is too talented to slip out of the top-10. I would take him with the third pick if I had the chance in a redraft league today.

4-47 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            If you’re into nerd stats, Price’s 12-13 2011 season was actually better than his 19-6 campaign in 2010. Even in the AL East, Price has the talent to deliver top-5 stats.

4-48 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

            I’m not touching A-Rod with a ten-foot pole unless my draft is in the sixth round and I’m still in need of a third baseman, but some idiot is going to draft him earlier than that.

5-49 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Boring? Yes. Effective? Yes again. Thank the post-steroids era for making this guy a fifth round pick.

5-50 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-RF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Fantasy baseball’s version of a Swiss army knife, Zobrist does a little bit of everything. A great pick at this point in the draft to anchor your middle infield.

5-51 = Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

            One of the few non-steroids aided first basemen to remain effective in his mid-30s, Konerko is the man to target if you miss out on the big time first basemen in the first two rounds.

5-52 = Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

            I’ll let the “experts” at ESPN fill this space. Here is what they have to say about Lester saying he wants to right the wrongs of 2011 and have a great 2012.

Lester was the first involved party to come clean about the aforementioned fried chicken and beer controversy and was very contrite, and implied he would make good in 2012. Normally, this can be brushed off as player-speak, but when the player is a cancer survivor, the words have more credibility.

            Uh, okay.

5-53 = Michael Young, 1B-2B-3B, Texas Rangers
            One of baseball’s most underrated hitters, Young’s position flexibility makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team.

5-54 = Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            The second Brewers pitcher taken in our mock that nerd stats indicate is a breakout candidate. Gallardo’s price tag is even cheaper than Greinke’s, which makes him a potential championship-swinging player in redraft leagues. At 26, Gallardo is poised to have a Cy Young caliber season.

5-55 = Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

            Age is catching up to him, but his place in the middle of the Phillies lineup still makes him one of the best options at second base.

5-56 = Mike Napoli, C-1B, Texas Rangers

            Don’t bank on Napoli batting over .300 again (his .344 BABIP in 2011 is completely unsustainable), but even if he drops to .250 his increased at-bats could lead to 35+ dingers. It’s hard to argue with anyone who would make him the first catcher off the board.

5-57 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves

            The batting average can be scary, and he’s prone to prolonged slumps, but there isn’t a better source of home runs from a second baseman not named Robinson Cano in baseball.

5-58 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

            Brandon Phillips is like the Matt Cain of second baseman. He’s not sexy, but he gets the job done.

5-59 = Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

            The day that Eric Hosmer improves his fly ball rate will be the day that Eric Hosmer rules the universe. Like Brett Lawrie, Hosmer’s a risky proposition in redraft leagues with this high of a pick.

5-60 = James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Shields was No Credentials favorite pitcher who most likely went after round 20 in fantasy drafts in 2011. He was on both of my fantasy teams last season, and delivered a pretty good Roy Halladay impression. Many skeptics believe that 2011 was a fluke, but nerd stats back up the case that Shields is capable of having another solid campaign in 2012. He’s going as late as the eighth round in some leagues, which is absolutely absurd. Go move Shields up your draft cheat sheet as soon as you close this browser.