Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

            It’s been a little while since the last installment so if you want a refresher on who got taken already, click here for round 1, and here for rounds 2-3.

4-37 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            You’re not going to get any homers, but he’s the safest source of steals the shortstop position has to offer.

4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            Advanced metrics indicate that Greinke is a fantastic buy-low candidate (if a pick within the fourth or fifth rounds can be considered “buy-low”). Redraft league participants should consider the merits of taking Greinke as your staff ace two rounds later than you would have to take Felix Hernandez.

4-39 = Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

            Lawrie has all the raw tools to succeed, it’s just a matter of if he can live up to the hype or not. In a redraft league, he’s probably not worth the risk of using such a high pick on him.

4-40 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

            Castro is a hitting machine, and an up tick in the stolen base department could make him a second round pick at this time next year.

4-41 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

            The only thing that will keep Strasburg from finishing the season as a top-5 fantasy pitcher will be the Nationals limiting his innings.

4-42 = Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Haren is a notorious fast starter/poor finisher (that’s what she said), but the addition of Mr. Pujols should generate an extra win or two or three.

4-43 = Matt Holiday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Those of you worried about Holiday’s ability to anchor the Cardinals lineup should remember that he was the best hitter on a Rockies team that went to the World Series in 2007.

4-44 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

            I’ve owned Zimmerman twice, and I think he spent a combined 753 games on the DL. He’s a nice player when he’s healthy, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Washington would pay him $100 million.

4-45 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians

            Displaying arguably the most advanced plate approach of any young player in the game last season, Santana is due for a fairly substantial increase from his 2011 batting average, which also has the potential to translate into 30 dingers.

4-46 = Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

            Keep in mind that at the time I made these picks, Braun was facing a 50 game suspension, and I still had him at 46. It’s a little concerning losing Prince Fielder’s bat behind him, but Braun is too talented to slip out of the top-10. I would take him with the third pick if I had the chance in a redraft league today.

4-47 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            If you’re into nerd stats, Price’s 12-13 2011 season was actually better than his 19-6 campaign in 2010. Even in the AL East, Price has the talent to deliver top-5 stats.

4-48 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

            I’m not touching A-Rod with a ten-foot pole unless my draft is in the sixth round and I’m still in need of a third baseman, but some idiot is going to draft him earlier than that.

5-49 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Boring? Yes. Effective? Yes again. Thank the post-steroids era for making this guy a fifth round pick.

5-50 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-RF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Fantasy baseball’s version of a Swiss army knife, Zobrist does a little bit of everything. A great pick at this point in the draft to anchor your middle infield.

5-51 = Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

            One of the few non-steroids aided first basemen to remain effective in his mid-30s, Konerko is the man to target if you miss out on the big time first basemen in the first two rounds.

5-52 = Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

            I’ll let the “experts” at ESPN fill this space. Here is what they have to say about Lester saying he wants to right the wrongs of 2011 and have a great 2012.

Lester was the first involved party to come clean about the aforementioned fried chicken and beer controversy and was very contrite, and implied he would make good in 2012. Normally, this can be brushed off as player-speak, but when the player is a cancer survivor, the words have more credibility.

            Uh, okay.

5-53 = Michael Young, 1B-2B-3B, Texas Rangers
            One of baseball’s most underrated hitters, Young’s position flexibility makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team.

5-54 = Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            The second Brewers pitcher taken in our mock that nerd stats indicate is a breakout candidate. Gallardo’s price tag is even cheaper than Greinke’s, which makes him a potential championship-swinging player in redraft leagues. At 26, Gallardo is poised to have a Cy Young caliber season.

5-55 = Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

            Age is catching up to him, but his place in the middle of the Phillies lineup still makes him one of the best options at second base.

5-56 = Mike Napoli, C-1B, Texas Rangers

            Don’t bank on Napoli batting over .300 again (his .344 BABIP in 2011 is completely unsustainable), but even if he drops to .250 his increased at-bats could lead to 35+ dingers. It’s hard to argue with anyone who would make him the first catcher off the board.

5-57 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves

            The batting average can be scary, and he’s prone to prolonged slumps, but there isn’t a better source of home runs from a second baseman not named Robinson Cano in baseball.

5-58 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

            Brandon Phillips is like the Matt Cain of second baseman. He’s not sexy, but he gets the job done.

5-59 = Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

            The day that Eric Hosmer improves his fly ball rate will be the day that Eric Hosmer rules the universe. Like Brett Lawrie, Hosmer’s a risky proposition in redraft leagues with this high of a pick.

5-60 = James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Shields was No Credentials favorite pitcher who most likely went after round 20 in fantasy drafts in 2011. He was on both of my fantasy teams last season, and delivered a pretty good Roy Halladay impression. Many skeptics believe that 2011 was a fluke, but nerd stats back up the case that Shields is capable of having another solid campaign in 2012. He’s going as late as the eighth round in some leagues, which is absolutely absurd. Go move Shields up your draft cheat sheet as soon as you close this browser.

No Cred At All Keeper Team Ranks

We're a little late, but here's the mid-season rankings of the order I would consider keeping the players that are currently on my keeper team if I were forced to decide today. I am able to keep five players for next season. The price of keeping player is a draft pick that corresponds to where a player was taken the year before.

Barring Injury, the Cornerstones of My Franchise

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – With the early season struggles of Hanley Ramirez, I was wishing I could go back in time and draft Cano first overall. Fortunately, I was able to put together a blockbuster trade to secure Cano on my team through 2015.

2. Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners – The only pitcher at this point that is locked in to be kept on my team. If I keep him for the full five years, he’ll only cost me a 12h round pick in 2015.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – Perhaps it’s the second hand smoke from 80-year old Jack McKeon, but Hanley has been on fire ever since the Marlins switched managers.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Another player that I gave up a lot to acquire mid-season, Longoria still hasn’t fully emerged from his early season slump.

     On the Bubble

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Fielder has been the offensive MVP of my team, but it’s 2012 and beyond that scares me. Will Fielder still be motivated after signing a $175 million contract, or will he eat 175 million Big Mac’s to celebrate his new found wealth?

      First Four Out

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals – He hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s still been the second best offensive rookie so far this season (behind Dustin Ackley, who I shipped out to acquire Cano). Fielder is without question the better player right now, but Hosmer has a very good chance to be a better player as soon as next season.

7. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins – Plate discipline is certainly an issue, but then again, discipline is usually an issue for anyone that is 21 years old. He would probably go in the first five rounds of next years draft if I don’t protect him.

8. James Shields, SP, Rays – His insanely low price tag (I snagged him in the 25^th round) plus his ridiculous performance (nearly a strikeout per inning, six complete games) has forced me to place Shields higher on this list. The wise move for me would be to find a trade partner that would intend to keep Shields and swing him for another arm and a quality bat.

9. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves – He has put it all together this season with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

      Too Expensive

10. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – With only five players allowed to be kept, Hamels 4^th round price tag is too expensive a price to pay for a pitcher.

      Nice Guys, But Can’t Keep You

11. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles – Buster Posey’s injury is exhibit A of why you shouldn’t spend too much on a catcher. They are one nasty home plate collision away from missing a full season.

12. B.J. Upton, OF, Rays – Doesn’t hit for average, but his power and speed make him a valuable fantasy commodity.

13. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics – His WHIP is a little too high for my liking (making him a candidate for potential regression), but otherwise he’s been an unsung hero for No Cred At All.

14. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles – I just traded Brandon Phillips for Jones the other day (Phillips was expendable after the acquisition of Cano). His inability to take a walk is a bit scary, but Jones is capable of delivering 10-15 home runs and 5 steals the rest of the way.

      Top Three Farm Hands Left

15. Brett Lawrie, 2B-3B, Blue Jays – Lawrie broke his hand the day before Toronto was going to call him up in June. We should see him sometime around the trade deadline.

16. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays – Tampa held back Jennings longer than expected, and then he suffered a small fracture in one of his fingers.

17. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins – I was hopeful that Scott Baker’s DL stint would allow the Twins to call up their top pitching prospect, but there has been no word yet of such a move.

      Un-keep-able

18. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians

19. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates

20. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

21. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals

22. Jordan Walden, RP, Angels

23. Vernon Wells, OF, Angels

24. Chris Perez, RP, Indians

25. Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Rays

26. Jamey Carroll, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Dodgers

27. Mike Leake, SP, Reds

28. Joe Nathan, RP, Twins

29. Randy Wolf, SP, Brewers

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs

31. Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers

Quarter Pole Keeper League Team Review

            We’ve just crossed the quarter pole of the fantasy baseball season. At this point you should be starting to get a good feel for what your team needs to compete for a championship in your league. Or, if you’re in a keeper league, you might be realizing that it’s already time to start planning for 2012 and beyond.

            In this column, I’ll review the 35 players that are on my keeper league team (you can review the draft review for the league here, if you’re struggling to fill a day that was never supposed to happen because the world was supposed to end yesterday). I’ve got five players on the disabled list right now, which gives me an extra five guys to rank. The exercise here is very simple. I’m going to rank 1-35 the order I would consider keeping a player for next season. This is the first season of the No Credentials Baseball keeper league. We are only allowed to keep five players after this first season, then 10 after 2012, and 15 for every year after that. The price for a keeping a player would be losing the draft pick that they were selected for the previous season (for example, I took Marlins outfielder Mike Stanton in the 8^th round. If I keep him for 2012, he would cost me an 8^th round pick in next years draft). The top five would be the guys I would keep if I needed to decide today.

            Before I begin, I’ll give a quick overview of my team. So far, my team is off to a 44-15-1 start (I’m leading 7-2 as of right now going into the final day of week 7), which gives me a 9.5 game lead on the second place team. There’s been a little smoke in mirrors involved, as a few of the weeks I was lucky to face a team that struggled to bat .230 for a full week. Pitching has been a strength, with late round picks Michael Pineda and James Shields providing a huge boost. I also had the foresight to load up on a bunch of minor league prospects. Eric Hosmer has already arrived and made an impact at the major league level. I should have the flexibility to consider trading virtually any player on my roster (for the right price).

            Without further ado, here’s how I’m currently ranking my team.

           

35. Brandon McCarthy, OAK, SP (30^th)

34. Maicer Izturis, LAA, 2B-3B-SS (30^th)

33. James McDonald, PIT, SP (30^th)

            All three of these guys are waiver wire plug-ins that have no chance of being kept on my team for the 2012 season.

32. Chris Perez, CLE, RP (14^th)

           

            As predicted before the season by No Credentials, Perez has been a solid source of cheap saves. He’s gotten a nice bump in the saves department thanks to Cleveland’s surprising start.

31. Ted Lilly, LAD, SP (18^th)

            Lilly has been pretty miserable so far this season. His strikeout rate is down (only 39 in 57 innings), and he’s looked very hittable. Other than Matt Thornton (who barely made it two weeks on my roster), Lilly has been my worst draft pick so far.

30. Pedro Alvarez, PIT, 3B (30^th)

            After being picked in the 12^th round, Alvarez found himself on the league’s waiver wire for the past two weeks. I scooped him up with the intentions of stashing him on my bench to see if he can turn it around. The news that he hit the DL today is a bit discouraging, but a rehab assignment in the minors might not be the worst thing for him. If he does, I’ll be able to shop a 24-year old 3^rd baseman that would only carry a 30^th round price tag for someone who might want to keep him.

29. Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP (30^th)

            It’s fitting that the Tampa Bay Rays figured out how to make Farnsworth a usable closer. It must have something to do with Joe Maddon’s glasses.

28. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN, 2B-SS (24^th)

            It’s hard to gauge what the newest Japanese import can bring to the table after Nick Swisher broke his fibula sliding into 2^nd base. He’s on track to be back in the Twins lineup within a month.

27. Brian Matusz, BAL, SP (16^th)

            A long DL stint has kept Matusz off of both of my team’s since the start of the season. He’s expected to make one or two more rehab starts before potentially rejoining the Baltimore rotation. If he finishes strong, it’s not out of the question that he could make a late push to be kept for next season.

26. Carlos Marmol, CHC, RP (7^th)

            Marmol has been awesome so far, delivering 27 strikeouts in 20 innings along with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. I’d have him ranked higher if I were able to keep 15 players for next season, but can’t justify using one of my five spots on a closer that was drafted in the 7^th round.

25. Derek Holland, TEX, SP (26^th)

            Holland struggled in April, but has rebounded to post a 3.38 ERA so far in May. The only issue left for him is the lack of run support he has been receiving. Eventually, he should develop into a solid 2^nd or 3^rd starter.

24. Adam Lind, TOR, 1B-OF (19^th)

            Even despite a back injury that has landed him on the DL since May 7^th, Lind is still enjoying a solid bounce back season. At age 27, he’s young enough that someone could potentially consider keeping him for the price of a 2012 19^th round pick.

23. Jordan Walden, LAA, RP (30^th)

            I scooped Walden off of waivers after Fernando Rodney finally was stripped of closing duties for the Angels. It’s been bumpy at times, but I won’t complain about 21 strikeouts in 19 innings and seven saves coming from the waiver wire.

22. Jordan Zimmerman, WAS, SP (22^nd)

            Zimmerman has been decent in his first full season after returning from Tommy John surgery. He doesn’t look like he will jump to a level where I would consider keeping him, but he should be a solid option to fill out my rotation for the year. The only concern for me going forward with him is if the Nationals decide to shut him down come September to limit his innings.

21. Dustin Ackley, SEA, OF (23^rd)

            As written here by ESPN’s David Schoenfield, Ackley should be called up from Triple-A within a week or two. He will man 2^nd Base, and has the potential to make a Dustin Pedroia like impact. If he delivers a batting average over .300 in the majors, he will be much higher on this list when I re-rank my roster in August.

20. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, 3B (3^rd)

            When I first owned Zimmerman on a fantasy team back in 2008 he was hurt for half the season, so it’s fitting that by the time he returns in June he will have already missed six weeks in 2011. Hopefully he’s healthy when I need him in September (which is really, all that matters in a head to head fantasy league, assuming your team is slated to make the playoffs). He could still impress enough that either I may consider keeping him for 2012 or find another owner that would like to acquire him for the fantasy playoff run.

19. Jose Tabata, PIT, OF (15^th)

            Tabata was on a tear to start the year before falling into a deep funk that has dropped his average to .235 (as of today). I expect his average to settle somewhere in the .265-.270 range by seasons end. He only turns 23 this August, so he is also a trade chip that can be used.

18. Lance Berkman, STL, 1B-OF (30^th)

            Berkman’s performance so far this year makes you either think that A) maybe he got some “training” tips from Lance Armstrong, or B) it’s a lot easier to hit in a lineup that has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as opposed to a lineup that features a very overweight Carlos Lee. I picked Berkman up off of waivers about three weeks ago (which seems ridiculous, but this is a keeper league, so a 35-year old player isn’t that attractive to most owners), and have been enjoying the ride ever since. If he keeps this up all year (which I doubt he will), I’d have to seriously consider keeping him at the cost of a 30^th round pick next season.

17. B.J. Upton, TB, OF (9^th)

            Upton has been solid this year, and has a chance to deliver both 30 homers and 30 steals. His low batting average is the reason he’s ranked so low on this list.

16. Colby Rasmus, STL, OF (12^th)

            Rasmus hasn’t been hitting for a ton of power, but he’s been getting on base and scoring a ton of runs out of the second spot in the Cardinals lineup. The power should show up at some point, resulting in somewhere between 20-25 dingers by season’s end.

15. Desmond Jennings, TB, OF (30^th)

            Jennings is a Carl Crawford clone (not the Crawford that has played for the Red Sox so far, but the one that was awesome in Tampa Bay for several years) that will be called up from Triple-A sometime during the month of June. I picked him up on waivers very early in the season, which means he’s another prospect that I could keep for a 30^th round price tag.

14. Brett Anderson, OAK, SP (11^th)

13. Gio Gonzalez, OAK, SP (13^th)

            These are two solid young pitchers that have a very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. If Oakland could ever put some semblance of an offense together, these two guys could easily put together multiple 20-win seasons.

12. Brandon Phillips, CIN 2B (5^th)

            Phillips is well on his way to delivering 20 homers, over 100 RBIs, and over 100 runs scored for both of my fantasy teams. If Dustin Ackley produces once he is called up to the majors, I will have the option of moving either one for starting pitching or a stud third baseman.

11. Jesus Montero, NYY, C (30^th)

            The only thing keeping Montero in Triple-A right now is his inability to play defense, which is an issue when you’re a catcher. New York should seriously consider bringing him up as their full-time DH. He should be in the majors sometime by August 1^st, whether he is playing for the Yankees or another major league team.

10. Matt Wieters, BAL, C (10^th)

            Wieters has begun to show signs of reaching his potential over the past month. However, his place on this list could plummet if Jesus Montero arrives on a major league roster and performs. Even if Wieters were to do well, a productive Montero is a much more attractive option to keep for 2012 at the price of a 30^th round pick.

9. Cole Hamels, PHI, SP (4^th)

            Other than an abysmal first start of the year, Hamels has been awesome this season. The only reason he’s this low on my list is A) I have other talented players, and B) I’m not too keen about keeping a pitcher at the price of a 4^th round pick.

8. Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B (21^st)

            Moustakas struggled to start the year (which is the reason Eric Hosmer got called up to the Royals first), but he’s raised his batting average 25 points in the last two weeks. He’ll be joining Hosmer in Kansas City within the next month.

7. Tommy Hanson, ATL, SP (6^th)

            The two round discount makes Hanson a much more likely candidate to be kept than Hamels. Hanson will anchor the Braves rotation for years to come (barring injury).

6. James Shields, TB, SP (25^th)

            I thought Shields would be a great bargain buy going into the year, but never expected him to post 2.26 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in the first quarter of the season. He’s forced himself into the discussion as a possible candidate to be kept for a second season.

5. Prince Fielder, MIL, 1B (2^nd)

            Fielder would be the clear #1 if not for a player I added on waivers that we will get to later. He’s off to a great start so far in his contract year. He should expect a big payday from whichever team misses out on the Albert Pujols sweepstakes.

4. Hanley Ramirez, FLA, SS (1^st)

            Even despite Ramirez’s awful start, he would half to fall off the face of the Earth in order to be left off of my 2012 roster. He’s too talented at a position where there are not a lot of quality offensive options. He’s started to heat up during the past week (.292 batting average, pair of homers and a steal), and I’m expecting him to finish with a batting average around .280 by years end.

3. Mike Stanton, FLA, OF (8^th)

            Stanton has been the National League version of Adrian Gonzalez so far this month, smacking 8 home runs. The scariest thing about Stanton is that he doesn’t turn 22 until November.

2. Michael Pineda, SEA, SP (20^th)

            Pineda looks like a cyborg that was built for the sole purpose of throwing 97 mph fastballs for strikes. Throw in his very spacious home ball park, and you have yourself a pitcher who has a chance to be a top-5 fantasy starter for the next decade. In retrospect, it was ridiculous that I was able to nab him in the 20^th round.

1. Eric Hosmer, KC, 1B (30^th)

           

            I grabbed Hosmer off of waivers after reading that he had 1.100+ OPS at Triple-A. He’s delivered a .314 batting average so far in his first 51 at bats with Kansas City. This guy is the real deal. The scariest part of him being on my team is the price I’ll have to pay for him for the next four seasons after this. After the second year, there is a three-round tax for each extra season you keep a player (we are only allowed to have a player for five seasons in this league). Here’s the price I’ll have to pay for Hosmer through 2015.

2012 = 30^th round pick

2013 = 27^th round pick

2014 = 24^th round pick

2015 = 21^st round pick

            In other words, good times are ahead. Hosmer’s emergence gives me tons of flexibility going forward. I have the freedom to shop Prince Fielder for a top flight starting pitcher or 3^rd baseman. I could also move Hosmer for a star player that could help me for the stretch drive.