2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW

P.Goldschmidt, ARI

A.Rizzo, CHC

J.Bautista, TOR OF

M.Cabrera, DET 3B

E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL

A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B

P.Fielder, TEX

B.Posey, SF C

D.Ortiz, BOS

A.Pujols, LAA

V.Martinez, DET

J.Lucroy, MIL C

C.Santana, CLE C-3B

J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B

C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL

E.Hosmer, KC

R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF

B.Moss, CLE OF

S.Pearce, BAL OF

L.Duda, NYM

M.Trumbo, ARI OF

A.LaRoche, CHW

C.Headley, NYY 3B

M.Napoli, BOS

M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

2-11 = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 25 HRs, 84 RBIs, 83 Rs, 19 SBs
            On a per-game basis, no player in fantasy was as valuable as Hanley Ramirez last year. Unfortunately, Hanley has missed way too much time over the past three years. You’re getting a first round talent at a second round (maybe even third depending on how conservative your league mates are) price, but have a back-up plan in place to cover short if he goes down.
       
2-12 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Texas Rangers
2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 35 HRs, 113 RBIs, 89 Rs, 1 SB
            Fielder was a disappointment to both his real team and fantasy teams last season, but a fresh start in Texas is just what the doctor ordered. A return to the 40 home run club isn’t out of the question.
        
2-13 = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
2014 Projection = .305 AVG, 31 HRs, 97 RBIs, 86 Rs, 5 SBs
            Everything I said about Hanley Ramirez applies here. Tulowitzki is lower on my board because he doesn’t provide steals.

2-14 = Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles

2014 Projection = .287 AVG, 32 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 14 SBs
            Jones’ development over the past five years has been fantastic to watch. His ceiling isn’t at an MVP level, but he’s among the most reliable outfielders in fantasy.
         
2-15 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
2014 Projection = .314 AVG, 35 HRs, 102 RBIs, 92 Rs, 1 SB
            We wrote last year that Beltre was the most reliable second round pick on the board, and that distinction still applies this year.
         

2-16 = Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees
2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 18 HRs, 63 RBIs, 96 Rs, 45 SBs
            Besides the two shortstops we’ve already discussed, Ellsbury is the other player in this round that has the same chance of either carrying or sinking your fantasy team. Logically, it stands to reason that Ellsbury could produce similar numbers to his 2011 campaign if healthy. You can make a case that he should go in the back half of the first round.

2-17 = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

2014 Projection = .327 AVG, 24 HRs, 77 RBIs, 99 Rs, 7 SBs
            Votto would be a surefire first rounder if he can ever rediscover his power stroke.

2-18 = David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

2014 Projection = .303 AVG, 22 HRs, 85 RBIs, 88 Rs, 18 SBs
            Is David Wright the Kevin Love of MLB, or is Kevin Love the David Wright of the NBA? It would be great to see Wright shipped to a contending team.
        
2-19 = Edwin Encarnacion, 1B-3B, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 Projection = .297 AVG, 37 HRs, 110 RBIs, 97 Rs, 10 SBs
            Last year, you got a “he’s only done it once discount” that let you draft Encarnacion in the third round. This year, is it a “fool me twice” discount? I’d be doing handstands (if I could) if I were able to pair him with either Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera.

2-20 = Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers

2014 Projection = 19 Ws, 266 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
            Regardless of what his ERA and WHIP look like, he’s the favorite to lead the league in strikeouts again. Throw in a stronger Rangers team, and Darvish is the clear number two starting pitcher in fantasy.


If you missed Round 1, click here.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

     Welcome to the third annual fantasy baseball mock draft. Today we start the tedious task of building ten individual fantasy teams from scratch. The format for this fake league is a standard, single-year 10-team head-to-head league with 5 x 5 scoring (I think we just set the record for nerdiest sentence in No Credentials history). I make each individual pick myself, without any bias to any of the ten teams. In other words, I try to make the best choice for each team with every given selection. Each roster will be 25 players deep, which is larger than your standard leagues, but will allow me to cover a few more "sleeper" picks (I put sleeper in quotes because if you do enough research, you'll find eleventybillion articles on who experts think will be "sleepers" this year. By the way, research means "doing a Google search" in the world of No Credentials).
     Before we get started, I'll share a few of my basic principles that I will draft my teams with this season. These principles apply for all rounds of the draft.

1. With the lack of offense in the non-steroids era, I will generally wait on starting pitching. I prefer to have one staff ace picked in the first five rounds, but don't mind waiting until as late as the tenth round to take a second starter.
2. Ditto for closers. With a little foresight, saves can always be found during the season.
3. Infielders are more valuable than outfielders, as there simply isn't a whole lot of depth at any of the infield spots. Even first base, which traditionally has been the deepest position in fantasy for years, doesn't look as sexy after Pujols-Votto-Fielder come off the board. I'll happily try to plug one or two holes in my outfield during the season via trade or the waiver wire if it means I have a solid group of infielders I can rely on.

     Without further ado, the first round...

 

1-1  = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .285, 22 HRs, 69 RBIs, 112 Rs. 46 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            I see where regression is certainly possible from Trout’s unbelievable .326-30-83-129-49 line, but even if his batting average were to drop 40 points, the added month of play should keep his counting stats high. If he hits for less power, that will probably translate to more steals. No matter which way you slice it Trout will be a top-5 fantasy producer.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .336, 39 HRs, 127 RBIs, 116 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Coming off the first Triple Crown winning season in 46 years, Cabrera has a solid chance of repeating the feat with the additions of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez to the line-up.
 
1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = .313, 33 HRs, 109 RBIs, 106 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-2 through 1-4
            Cano’s level of production at second base is unparalleled among his peers. If New York makes the post season, pencil him in as your AL MVP.
 
1-4  = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ESPN Projections = .319, 36 HRs, 111 RBIs, 108 Rs, 29 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Braun already has delivered one outstanding season while dealing with PED allegations, so there’s no reason to believe that his link to a Florida steroids dealer will impact him this year.

1-5  = Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .313, 35 HRs, 116 RBIs, 97 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 1-10
            We already talked about what Detroit’s off-season acquisitions could do for Miguel Cabrera, but they should be even more valuable for Prince Fielder. Expect him to see a few more fastballs to crank out of the park this year.

1-6  = Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Projections = .297, 33 HRs, 103 RBIs, 98 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-11
            Kemp might not steal 39 bases like he did in 2011 ever again, but if healthy, 40 dingers, 120 RBIs, and 115 Rs are in play with Adrian Gonzalez hitting behind him.
 
1-7  = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ESPN Projections = .299, 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 101 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-15
            If we could somehow transport McCutchen to a team with an actual clean-up hitter, we’d be talking about a potential top overall pick. For now, he’s a plus 5-category contributor who is just entering his prime.

1-8  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .300, 34 HRs, 115 RBIs, 102 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-12
            Pujols isn’t the level of player he used to be (to be honest, who is? Pujols was ridiculous in his prime with St. Louis), but there’s a strong possibility his second season in the American League will go better than the first.
 

1-9  = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

ESPN Projections = .320, 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-7 through 2-18
           The riskiest pick of this first round group, Votto needs to demonstrate his power has returned before you should consider making him the centerpiece of your fantasy team. No Credentials is stepping out on a limb and predicting he will return to his pre-injury form of a year ago, but watch him closely in Spring Training.
 
1-10 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 234 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-20
            Hopefully freed of the innings limit that that took him out of the Nationals stretch run (it’s sort of like “Django Unchained”, minus the slavery), Strasburg will be fully unleashed on the National League. I’m more bullish on him than most experts, predicting that his ERA lands somewhere in the 2.80 range. Being able to contribute for the whole season will benefit him immensely.

Click here to check out the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the mock draft



No Credentials Keeper Team Player Ranks

            Loyal readers of this blog (all 11 of you) will recall that I used to write periodically about my fantasy baseball team. Why haven’t I done it yet this season? To put it simply, no one other than myself and the nine other people in my keeper league give a shit about it. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to post a ranking of all 35 players currently on my team. We’ll be able to keep 10 players after this year, so the top 10 are the players I would keep if the season ended right now. Just for a refresher, here are the basic league rules and notes.

-         The price of a keeper player is forfeiting whichever draft pick was used on that player originally (with a tax and players who’ve been kept 2+ years, but we don’t need to get into that).

-         We kept 5 after last season, 10 after this year, and will be keeping 15 after 2013 and every year after that.

-         I won the league last year thanks to good fortune during the first half of the season, and a flurry of trades halfway through the season. I was able to acquire Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria via trade, and added an arsenal of pitchers just before the trade deadline. One of the 10 most incredible things I’ve ever accomplished was successfully completing four trades in one day in the same league.

-         Before this year, I kept Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, and Desmond Jennings.

-         Shortly after the season started, I was able to move Johnny Cueto and Jose Valverde for Nelson Cruz (lost that trade so far), and then swapped Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy for Ryan Braun (won that trade big time).

-         Around the start of summer, I was able to acquire Buster Posey and Cliff Lee in two separate deals.

-         Last year, my starting pitching was led by Cole Hamels, James Shields (career year in 2011), Tommy Hanson, Michael Pineda, and Gio Gonzalez. Pineda is the only one of them I was able to get back in the draft, and he’s been stuck on the DL all year. I’ve been punting ERA and WHIP all season. If my offense doesn’t show up, I lose.

-         Last year my team was loaded with minor league prospects. Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, Jacob Turner, and Kyle Gibson were all used to sweeten blockbuster trades, while Eric Hosmer was a nice boost out my utility spot. This year? Not so much. Anthony Rizzo was the only big name I was able to move (in the Cliff Lee trade), but it’s fair to say that Rizzo would’ve been more valuable now than he was when I shipped him out. Trevor Bauer came up after great anticipation, stunk up the joint, and has since been shut down to rest. Dealing with prospects is a fickle mistress.

-         I forgot Adam Jones was on my team last year.

            After the primer, here are the ranks.  

35. Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Picked up the old guy for some bench depth. Not a chance he’s kept for 2013.

34. Travis Blackley, SP, Oakland Athletics

            I wouldn’t know who Travis Blackley was if he came into my house with a t-shirt that read, “Hi, my name is Travis Blackley.” He’s filling a spot until a couple of my DL guys come back.

33. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves

            It feels like Teheran has been Atlanta’s top pitching prospect for 10 years.

32. Bobby Parnell, RP, New York Mets

31. Frank Francisco, RP, New York Mets
            Parnell is only on board until Francisco returns from the DL. I don’t pay for saves, especially from erratic relievers.

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs

            If you read the previous paragraph carefully, you’ll know why Marmol is ranked at 30.

29. Erik Bedard, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            A brittle pitcher his entire career, Bedard has been shockingly healthy all season long for the resurgent Pirates. He throws out some stinkers, but his K rate is good enough to warrant keeping him around this season.

28. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Oakland Athletics

            He’d be ranked in the top-15 if he could stay healthy for more than a month at a time.

27. Felix Doubront, SP, Boston Red Sox

            Hey, at least he’s better than Jon Lester.

26. Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins

            The best reliever that is apart of Miami’s “closer-by-committee”, Cishek will be in line for even more saves if Heath Bell is shipped out of town.

25. Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins

            The top prospect acquired by Miami when they shipped Annabel Sanchez to the Tigers, Turner should be back up in the majors after the trade deadline.

24. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees

            Best known as “the guy with the bum arm that Seattle was able to pawn off on the Yankees for Jesus Montero”, Pineda should be at full strength for the start of 2013.

23. J.J. Putz, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Since reinforcement is the key to learning, I’ll say it again… I won’t pay for saves.

22. Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            The top pitching prospect in the majors, Bauer had some issues with control in his first few MLB starts, and has now been given a break to rest his arm. Hopefully he’s back in the Diamondbacks rotation in September.

21. Daniel Murphy, 1B-2B-3B, New York Mets

            Murphy is the kind of unsung guy that can boost your team to a fantasy championship. He’s not flashy, but he’s a solid .300 hitter that can fill in three infield spots. Due to Evan Longoria’s health issues, he’s played a lot at 3B.

20. Wil Myers, C-OF, Kansas City Royals

            Myers is the top minor league prospect left on No Cred At All, but unfortunately doesn’t have an open spot in the Royals outfield. Not to mention that he’s 0 for his last 80 in Triple-A.

19. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Miami Marlins

            No Cred’s swift army knife, Bonifacio racks up the steals whenever he is in the lineup.

18. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

            Alvarez is an all or nothing slugger who if he ever figures it out, has the potential to be a 40-homer a year player.

17. Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

            I drafted Rasmus last year, traded him before last year’s deadline, and then was able to scoop him up off waivers this season. He’s streaky, but when he’s hot, he can single-handedly win a week.

16. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

            No Credentials still won’t pay for saves, but Papelbon is my all-time favorite Red Sox reliever, so we’ll pay him some respect and put him inside the top-20.

15. Trevor Cahill, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Cahill would be much better off if he didn’t have to pitch in Arizona, which is a problem when he plays for the Diamondbacks.

14. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

            Acquired early in the season, Cruz has been the biggest disappointment for No Credentials. 

13. Jonathan Niese, SP, New York Mets

            The fact that Niese ranks this high on my list makes me seriously doubt my team’s championship chances this year.

12. Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees

            After a miserable 2011, Hughes has rebounded to have a serviceable season. He’d be a shoe-in for the top-10 if he could figure out how to stop giving up gopher balls.

11. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

            Moore has unquestioned stuff, and recently has figured out how to more consistently throw strikes. A strong final two months by Moore will easily push him into the top-10.

10. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            I made a trade for Lee in early June, which means my team has collected 100% of his wins this season. Unfortunately, that only amounts to one. No Credentials is cheering hard for a panic trade to the Rangers.

9. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians

            Figured he’d be just a one-year rental, but Choo’s success in the leadoff spot has pushed him ahead of Nelson Cruz on the outfield depth chart.

8. James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            The waiver wire pick-up of the year for No Credentials, McDonald has been the lone ray of consistency in the No Credentials starting rotation. He’s hit a rough patch since the All-Star break, but look for him to bounce back soon for the resurgent Pirates.

7. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            Andrus was the one player that I absolutely had to draft this year, and was fortunate to get him at the start of the fourth round with my first available draft pick. An improved eye at the plate has allowed Andrus to post a career high .370 on-base percentage. Incredibly he’s playing his fourth season in baseball, and he’s only 23 years old.

6. Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
            Posey was a mid-season trade acquisition (which the other team received among other things, Ted Lilly, who I’m pretty sure made exactly one start for his new team. Sorry Ethan) who solidified the poop sandwich I was rolling out at catcher every night.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins

            Stanton was having a breakout campaign before a balky knee sidelined him until sometime in August.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

            An RBI machine in April, Longoria tore his hamstring and hasn’t seen the field since. A return this week will be a welcome pick me up. 

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

            Hasn’t cranked out the normal amount of dingers, but Fielder has done everything else in his first season with the Tigers. To think that I almost ditched him and kept Eric Hosmer for 2012. Yikes.

2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

            It doesn’t really make sense how Ryan Braun ended up on my team, but let me run through the details. Before the season, the owner that had the rights to him chose not to keep him (which at the time seemed laughable, but the player he kept instead was Mike Trout, which only cost a thirtieth round pick. That decision worked out). My friend Ethan won the first overall pick in our preseason draft lottery (don’t ask), and wisely used it on Braun. Unfortunately for him, either alcohol or foolhardiness caused him to trade Braun to me for Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy. That’s right, an outfielder who’s barely hitting .240 and a pitcher who’s thrown up a mediocre 4.20 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. In defense of him, Jennings was a fourth round pick in redraft leagues that he would be able to keep at the price of a thirtieth round pick n year, and Kennedy was one of the best ten pitchers in baseball last year. Needless to say, Braun has been the MVP of No Cred At All. Without him, we never would’ve survived the early season struggles of Fielder and Robinson Cano.

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

            Cano hasn’t been better than Braun this season, but he’s far and away the top second baseman in baseball. The difference in value between Cano and the tenth best 2B is much greater than the difference between the top first baseman and the tenth best 1B. 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1

     Welcome to No Credentials second annual "Nerdfest", a month and a half long series showing how No Credentials would build 12 teams for a non-keeper league fantasy baseball team. My ranks should hold up well for either roto or head-to-head leagues. While this mock is based on a non-keeper league, I will occasionally call out guys who's value should be adjusted if you're building a keeper team, or if you are participating in an auction. Without further ado...

1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
             Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.

1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBs
            Tulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.

1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBs
            Cabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.  

1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays

.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            Two years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.

1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            I’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.

1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBs
            Votto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.

1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBs
            Blame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.

1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBs
            There’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

            To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.

1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SB
            Take 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.

1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SB
            His home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.

1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBs
            Ellsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.

1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIP
            Kershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.            

           

The Worst Long-Term Contract of the MLB Offseason

     I like Prince Fielder. He was a key part of my keeper league team last year, and I'm definitly keeping him for a second year this season (unless I'm heavily intoxicated when I submit my keepers and decide to gamble on Eric Hosmer). I'll grant you that Fielder and Miguel Cabrera hitting back to back is terryifying, but the other side of the diamond plus the final five years of the contract are what make Detroit's newest acquisition such a foolish one.
     Fielder was signed for 9 years at $213 million. He's going to be 28 years old this May. That means when he is 37, the Tigers will be paying him $23.5 million. One just has to look at the career track of Ryan Howard, Mo Vaughn, and Jim Thome to see what Detroit will be paying for once Fielder hits his mid-30s.
     Defensivly is where this deal will hurt in the short-term. Unless Cabrera and Fielder get comfortable sharing both first base and the DH spot, Miguel is going to spend a fair amount of time at third base. In Cabrera's last two seasons with Floriday, he committed 40 errors at third. In 14 games there for the Tigers in 2008, Cabrera committed 5 (that would put him on a pace for roughly 50 if he played the whole season there). That was four years ago. It's asking too much to expect Cabrera to be able to handle the hot corner at even a sub-par level. It's more than likely going to be a disaster on the level of former Mets catcher Todd Hundley trying to convert to the outfield about fifteen years ago (anyone else remember that? Those were some great Sportscenter highlights, espeically after they showed Chuck Knoblauch chucking the ball 20 feet over Tino Martinez' head).
     Those previous two paragraphs are the reason I am nominating Prince Fielder as the 2012 winner of "No Credentials Worst Long-Term Contract of the MLB Offseason". He joins Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth as the second winner of this award.

No Cred At All Keeper Team Ranks

We're a little late, but here's the mid-season rankings of the order I would consider keeping the players that are currently on my keeper team if I were forced to decide today. I am able to keep five players for next season. The price of keeping player is a draft pick that corresponds to where a player was taken the year before.

Barring Injury, the Cornerstones of My Franchise

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – With the early season struggles of Hanley Ramirez, I was wishing I could go back in time and draft Cano first overall. Fortunately, I was able to put together a blockbuster trade to secure Cano on my team through 2015.

2. Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners – The only pitcher at this point that is locked in to be kept on my team. If I keep him for the full five years, he’ll only cost me a 12h round pick in 2015.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – Perhaps it’s the second hand smoke from 80-year old Jack McKeon, but Hanley has been on fire ever since the Marlins switched managers.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Another player that I gave up a lot to acquire mid-season, Longoria still hasn’t fully emerged from his early season slump.

     On the Bubble

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Fielder has been the offensive MVP of my team, but it’s 2012 and beyond that scares me. Will Fielder still be motivated after signing a $175 million contract, or will he eat 175 million Big Mac’s to celebrate his new found wealth?

      First Four Out

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals – He hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s still been the second best offensive rookie so far this season (behind Dustin Ackley, who I shipped out to acquire Cano). Fielder is without question the better player right now, but Hosmer has a very good chance to be a better player as soon as next season.

7. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins – Plate discipline is certainly an issue, but then again, discipline is usually an issue for anyone that is 21 years old. He would probably go in the first five rounds of next years draft if I don’t protect him.

8. James Shields, SP, Rays – His insanely low price tag (I snagged him in the 25^th round) plus his ridiculous performance (nearly a strikeout per inning, six complete games) has forced me to place Shields higher on this list. The wise move for me would be to find a trade partner that would intend to keep Shields and swing him for another arm and a quality bat.

9. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves – He has put it all together this season with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

      Too Expensive

10. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – With only five players allowed to be kept, Hamels 4^th round price tag is too expensive a price to pay for a pitcher.

      Nice Guys, But Can’t Keep You

11. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles – Buster Posey’s injury is exhibit A of why you shouldn’t spend too much on a catcher. They are one nasty home plate collision away from missing a full season.

12. B.J. Upton, OF, Rays – Doesn’t hit for average, but his power and speed make him a valuable fantasy commodity.

13. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics – His WHIP is a little too high for my liking (making him a candidate for potential regression), but otherwise he’s been an unsung hero for No Cred At All.

14. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles – I just traded Brandon Phillips for Jones the other day (Phillips was expendable after the acquisition of Cano). His inability to take a walk is a bit scary, but Jones is capable of delivering 10-15 home runs and 5 steals the rest of the way.

      Top Three Farm Hands Left

15. Brett Lawrie, 2B-3B, Blue Jays – Lawrie broke his hand the day before Toronto was going to call him up in June. We should see him sometime around the trade deadline.

16. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays – Tampa held back Jennings longer than expected, and then he suffered a small fracture in one of his fingers.

17. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins – I was hopeful that Scott Baker’s DL stint would allow the Twins to call up their top pitching prospect, but there has been no word yet of such a move.

      Un-keep-able

18. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians

19. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates

20. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

21. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals

22. Jordan Walden, RP, Angels

23. Vernon Wells, OF, Angels

24. Chris Perez, RP, Indians

25. Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Rays

26. Jamey Carroll, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Dodgers

27. Mike Leake, SP, Reds

28. Joe Nathan, RP, Twins

29. Randy Wolf, SP, Brewers

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs

31. Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers

The Second No Credentials Blockbuster

            Roughly 10 days ago, the second No Credentials Baseball League blockbuster went down. Again, yours truly was involved (to read about the first one, click here). By shipping off a stud rookie and a surprising veteran, I was able to acquire a player who will definitely be on my team for the next five years. Here is the breakdown for both sides.

No Cred at All receives 2B Robinson Cano

Go Team receives 1B-OF Lance Berkman and 2B-OF Dustin Ackley

            We’ll look at how Go Team came out of this deal first. Go Team had a gaping hole at first base created by Ike Davis (I have Davis on my redraft team. He tripped over a mound in May. There were scant updates on him before rumors that he might need season ending micro-fracture popped up in mid-June. Now supposedly he’s finally looking at attempting to run. Keep in mind that he only tripped over a mound). Berkman has been a top-25 player for the entire season, so he fills this hole nicely. I picked Berkman up off of waivers, so if Go Team decides to keep him next year, that will cost him a 30^th round pick in next year’s draft. I hated to trade Berkman, but parting with Ackley was even more difficult. I drafted Ackley, but cut him early in the season (oddly enough, I cut him for Berkman). Fortunately for me, I had the foresight to pick him back up about a week before the Mariners called him up. Ackley projects to be very similar to Dustin Pedroia. He won’t be as good as Robinson Cano at any point during his career, but he’s a serviceable fill-in that Go Team can also keep at a very low price for next season.

            As for my part of the trade…I got Robinson f***ing Cano. This trade reminded me of the Carmelo Anthony trade. It didn’t necessarily make sense for me to trade two dual-eligibility players that can provide top-50 production the rest of the way, but if an opportunity presents itself to add a superstar talent, you have to do it. Going forward, I still need to acquire an outfielder to round out my lineup, but it’s not a huge issue when my starting infield looks like this…

1B = Prince Fielder

2B = Robinson Cano

3B = Evan Longoria

SS = Hanley Ramirez

            I’ve backed myself into a corner where I probably will have to keep all four of those guys for my team next year, but that’s not necessarily something I should be complaining about.

           

Quarter Pole Keeper League Team Review

            We’ve just crossed the quarter pole of the fantasy baseball season. At this point you should be starting to get a good feel for what your team needs to compete for a championship in your league. Or, if you’re in a keeper league, you might be realizing that it’s already time to start planning for 2012 and beyond.

            In this column, I’ll review the 35 players that are on my keeper league team (you can review the draft review for the league here, if you’re struggling to fill a day that was never supposed to happen because the world was supposed to end yesterday). I’ve got five players on the disabled list right now, which gives me an extra five guys to rank. The exercise here is very simple. I’m going to rank 1-35 the order I would consider keeping a player for next season. This is the first season of the No Credentials Baseball keeper league. We are only allowed to keep five players after this first season, then 10 after 2012, and 15 for every year after that. The price for a keeping a player would be losing the draft pick that they were selected for the previous season (for example, I took Marlins outfielder Mike Stanton in the 8^th round. If I keep him for 2012, he would cost me an 8^th round pick in next years draft). The top five would be the guys I would keep if I needed to decide today.

            Before I begin, I’ll give a quick overview of my team. So far, my team is off to a 44-15-1 start (I’m leading 7-2 as of right now going into the final day of week 7), which gives me a 9.5 game lead on the second place team. There’s been a little smoke in mirrors involved, as a few of the weeks I was lucky to face a team that struggled to bat .230 for a full week. Pitching has been a strength, with late round picks Michael Pineda and James Shields providing a huge boost. I also had the foresight to load up on a bunch of minor league prospects. Eric Hosmer has already arrived and made an impact at the major league level. I should have the flexibility to consider trading virtually any player on my roster (for the right price).

            Without further ado, here’s how I’m currently ranking my team.

           

35. Brandon McCarthy, OAK, SP (30^th)

34. Maicer Izturis, LAA, 2B-3B-SS (30^th)

33. James McDonald, PIT, SP (30^th)

            All three of these guys are waiver wire plug-ins that have no chance of being kept on my team for the 2012 season.

32. Chris Perez, CLE, RP (14^th)

           

            As predicted before the season by No Credentials, Perez has been a solid source of cheap saves. He’s gotten a nice bump in the saves department thanks to Cleveland’s surprising start.

31. Ted Lilly, LAD, SP (18^th)

            Lilly has been pretty miserable so far this season. His strikeout rate is down (only 39 in 57 innings), and he’s looked very hittable. Other than Matt Thornton (who barely made it two weeks on my roster), Lilly has been my worst draft pick so far.

30. Pedro Alvarez, PIT, 3B (30^th)

            After being picked in the 12^th round, Alvarez found himself on the league’s waiver wire for the past two weeks. I scooped him up with the intentions of stashing him on my bench to see if he can turn it around. The news that he hit the DL today is a bit discouraging, but a rehab assignment in the minors might not be the worst thing for him. If he does, I’ll be able to shop a 24-year old 3^rd baseman that would only carry a 30^th round price tag for someone who might want to keep him.

29. Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP (30^th)

            It’s fitting that the Tampa Bay Rays figured out how to make Farnsworth a usable closer. It must have something to do with Joe Maddon’s glasses.

28. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN, 2B-SS (24^th)

            It’s hard to gauge what the newest Japanese import can bring to the table after Nick Swisher broke his fibula sliding into 2^nd base. He’s on track to be back in the Twins lineup within a month.

27. Brian Matusz, BAL, SP (16^th)

            A long DL stint has kept Matusz off of both of my team’s since the start of the season. He’s expected to make one or two more rehab starts before potentially rejoining the Baltimore rotation. If he finishes strong, it’s not out of the question that he could make a late push to be kept for next season.

26. Carlos Marmol, CHC, RP (7^th)

            Marmol has been awesome so far, delivering 27 strikeouts in 20 innings along with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. I’d have him ranked higher if I were able to keep 15 players for next season, but can’t justify using one of my five spots on a closer that was drafted in the 7^th round.

25. Derek Holland, TEX, SP (26^th)

            Holland struggled in April, but has rebounded to post a 3.38 ERA so far in May. The only issue left for him is the lack of run support he has been receiving. Eventually, he should develop into a solid 2^nd or 3^rd starter.

24. Adam Lind, TOR, 1B-OF (19^th)

            Even despite a back injury that has landed him on the DL since May 7^th, Lind is still enjoying a solid bounce back season. At age 27, he’s young enough that someone could potentially consider keeping him for the price of a 2012 19^th round pick.

23. Jordan Walden, LAA, RP (30^th)

            I scooped Walden off of waivers after Fernando Rodney finally was stripped of closing duties for the Angels. It’s been bumpy at times, but I won’t complain about 21 strikeouts in 19 innings and seven saves coming from the waiver wire.

22. Jordan Zimmerman, WAS, SP (22^nd)

            Zimmerman has been decent in his first full season after returning from Tommy John surgery. He doesn’t look like he will jump to a level where I would consider keeping him, but he should be a solid option to fill out my rotation for the year. The only concern for me going forward with him is if the Nationals decide to shut him down come September to limit his innings.

21. Dustin Ackley, SEA, OF (23^rd)

            As written here by ESPN’s David Schoenfield, Ackley should be called up from Triple-A within a week or two. He will man 2^nd Base, and has the potential to make a Dustin Pedroia like impact. If he delivers a batting average over .300 in the majors, he will be much higher on this list when I re-rank my roster in August.

20. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, 3B (3^rd)

            When I first owned Zimmerman on a fantasy team back in 2008 he was hurt for half the season, so it’s fitting that by the time he returns in June he will have already missed six weeks in 2011. Hopefully he’s healthy when I need him in September (which is really, all that matters in a head to head fantasy league, assuming your team is slated to make the playoffs). He could still impress enough that either I may consider keeping him for 2012 or find another owner that would like to acquire him for the fantasy playoff run.

19. Jose Tabata, PIT, OF (15^th)

            Tabata was on a tear to start the year before falling into a deep funk that has dropped his average to .235 (as of today). I expect his average to settle somewhere in the .265-.270 range by seasons end. He only turns 23 this August, so he is also a trade chip that can be used.

18. Lance Berkman, STL, 1B-OF (30^th)

            Berkman’s performance so far this year makes you either think that A) maybe he got some “training” tips from Lance Armstrong, or B) it’s a lot easier to hit in a lineup that has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as opposed to a lineup that features a very overweight Carlos Lee. I picked Berkman up off of waivers about three weeks ago (which seems ridiculous, but this is a keeper league, so a 35-year old player isn’t that attractive to most owners), and have been enjoying the ride ever since. If he keeps this up all year (which I doubt he will), I’d have to seriously consider keeping him at the cost of a 30^th round pick next season.

17. B.J. Upton, TB, OF (9^th)

            Upton has been solid this year, and has a chance to deliver both 30 homers and 30 steals. His low batting average is the reason he’s ranked so low on this list.

16. Colby Rasmus, STL, OF (12^th)

            Rasmus hasn’t been hitting for a ton of power, but he’s been getting on base and scoring a ton of runs out of the second spot in the Cardinals lineup. The power should show up at some point, resulting in somewhere between 20-25 dingers by season’s end.

15. Desmond Jennings, TB, OF (30^th)

            Jennings is a Carl Crawford clone (not the Crawford that has played for the Red Sox so far, but the one that was awesome in Tampa Bay for several years) that will be called up from Triple-A sometime during the month of June. I picked him up on waivers very early in the season, which means he’s another prospect that I could keep for a 30^th round price tag.

14. Brett Anderson, OAK, SP (11^th)

13. Gio Gonzalez, OAK, SP (13^th)

            These are two solid young pitchers that have a very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. If Oakland could ever put some semblance of an offense together, these two guys could easily put together multiple 20-win seasons.

12. Brandon Phillips, CIN 2B (5^th)

            Phillips is well on his way to delivering 20 homers, over 100 RBIs, and over 100 runs scored for both of my fantasy teams. If Dustin Ackley produces once he is called up to the majors, I will have the option of moving either one for starting pitching or a stud third baseman.

11. Jesus Montero, NYY, C (30^th)

            The only thing keeping Montero in Triple-A right now is his inability to play defense, which is an issue when you’re a catcher. New York should seriously consider bringing him up as their full-time DH. He should be in the majors sometime by August 1^st, whether he is playing for the Yankees or another major league team.

10. Matt Wieters, BAL, C (10^th)

            Wieters has begun to show signs of reaching his potential over the past month. However, his place on this list could plummet if Jesus Montero arrives on a major league roster and performs. Even if Wieters were to do well, a productive Montero is a much more attractive option to keep for 2012 at the price of a 30^th round pick.

9. Cole Hamels, PHI, SP (4^th)

            Other than an abysmal first start of the year, Hamels has been awesome this season. The only reason he’s this low on my list is A) I have other talented players, and B) I’m not too keen about keeping a pitcher at the price of a 4^th round pick.

8. Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B (21^st)

            Moustakas struggled to start the year (which is the reason Eric Hosmer got called up to the Royals first), but he’s raised his batting average 25 points in the last two weeks. He’ll be joining Hosmer in Kansas City within the next month.

7. Tommy Hanson, ATL, SP (6^th)

            The two round discount makes Hanson a much more likely candidate to be kept than Hamels. Hanson will anchor the Braves rotation for years to come (barring injury).

6. James Shields, TB, SP (25^th)

            I thought Shields would be a great bargain buy going into the year, but never expected him to post 2.26 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in the first quarter of the season. He’s forced himself into the discussion as a possible candidate to be kept for a second season.

5. Prince Fielder, MIL, 1B (2^nd)

            Fielder would be the clear #1 if not for a player I added on waivers that we will get to later. He’s off to a great start so far in his contract year. He should expect a big payday from whichever team misses out on the Albert Pujols sweepstakes.

4. Hanley Ramirez, FLA, SS (1^st)

            Even despite Ramirez’s awful start, he would half to fall off the face of the Earth in order to be left off of my 2012 roster. He’s too talented at a position where there are not a lot of quality offensive options. He’s started to heat up during the past week (.292 batting average, pair of homers and a steal), and I’m expecting him to finish with a batting average around .280 by years end.

3. Mike Stanton, FLA, OF (8^th)

            Stanton has been the National League version of Adrian Gonzalez so far this month, smacking 8 home runs. The scariest thing about Stanton is that he doesn’t turn 22 until November.

2. Michael Pineda, SEA, SP (20^th)

            Pineda looks like a cyborg that was built for the sole purpose of throwing 97 mph fastballs for strikes. Throw in his very spacious home ball park, and you have yourself a pitcher who has a chance to be a top-5 fantasy starter for the next decade. In retrospect, it was ridiculous that I was able to nab him in the 20^th round.

1. Eric Hosmer, KC, 1B (30^th)

           

            I grabbed Hosmer off of waivers after reading that he had 1.100+ OPS at Triple-A. He’s delivered a .314 batting average so far in his first 51 at bats with Kansas City. This guy is the real deal. The scariest part of him being on my team is the price I’ll have to pay for him for the next four seasons after this. After the second year, there is a three-round tax for each extra season you keep a player (we are only allowed to have a player for five seasons in this league). Here’s the price I’ll have to pay for Hosmer through 2015.

2012 = 30^th round pick

2013 = 27^th round pick

2014 = 24^th round pick

2015 = 21^st round pick

            In other words, good times are ahead. Hosmer’s emergence gives me tons of flexibility going forward. I have the freedom to shop Prince Fielder for a top flight starting pitcher or 3^rd baseman. I could also move Hosmer for a star player that could help me for the stretch drive.