2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Second Base

            For the first time since we’ve been posting fantasy baseball draft content, I’m ready to declare second base as a relatively deep position. It’s not necessarily a great talent boom that put us in this place, but in the post-steroids era, the tenth best fantasy second basemen won’t be that far off in terms of value from the first. Position scarcity fanatics would often have their middle infields filled early in drafts, but even with that mindset it makes sense to wait on second base. 2B is arguably the least stressful fantasy spot to fill this season.

Tier-1 = The Name Brands 

R.Cano, SEA

A.Rendon, WAS

J.Altuve, HOU

            Cano begrudgingly maintains the top spot on this list, even though Altuve was the top ranked fantasy second baseman a year ago and Rendon is the best five category producer. Seattle’s off-season additions give logical reasons to believe Cano will put up better counting stats during his second year in a Mariners uniform. Altuve is a likely regression candidate, but even if his batting average drops 50 points there is higher run potential leading off for an improved Astros club. All three of these guys are great picks in the second round.

Tier-2 = Store Brands? 

D.Gordon, MIA

I.Kinsler, DET

            We almost put these players in their own tiers, but ultimately they are both undervalued commodities. The fantasy community appears to be taking Gordon’s speed for granted (ESPN has him ranked as the ninth best second baseman), but the bottom line is he can single-handedly carry you in stolen bases. Kinsler is no longer a 20-20 machine, but 30 combined homers and steals still have value.

Tier-3 = MOOKIE! and Some Other People

J.Kipnis, CLE

M.Betts, BOS OF

B.Dozier, MIN

K.Wong, STL

D.Pedroia, BOS

            This group carries the highest risk-reward factor of any of the tiers at second base for a variety of reasons. Jason Kipnis hasn’t been reliable since the first half of the 2013 season, but a return to health could mean he delivers top-20 value again. Mookie Betts isn’t eligible at second in most leagues, and isn’t likely to get any starts there this season, so plan accordingly if you’re in a keeper league. Brian Dozier is the most likely person in this group to hit below the Mendoza Line, and aside from going bonkers in last year’s postseason Wong hasn’t shown enough consistency. Dustin Pedroia is the biggest stay away for me in this tier. He doesn’t rack up steals or homers anymore, and is value is completely tied to whether or not he can maintain a spot in the top third of the Red Sox lineup. He’s essentially taken on the role Derek Jeter did in fantasy for the better part of the last decade.

Tier-4 = Not Horrendous Options

N.Walker, PIT

B.Zobrist, OAK

J.Harrison, PIT 3B-OF

D.Murphy, NYM

H.Kendrick, LAD

            Josh Harrison stands out as a guy you want to have on your bench with his multi-position flexibility. Howie Kendrick could be a better version of Dustin Pedroia if he gets to hit first or second for the Dodgers.

Tier-5 = Upside Baby! 

J.Baez, CHC SS

B.Lawrie, OAK

            You shouldn’t rely on either Baez or Lawrie to be your starting second baseman, but don’t like them be un-owned at the end of your draft or auction. Baez posted a historically inept 42% strikeout rate after getting the call to the big leagues, but there is no middle infielder with as much power as him. If he can bat .250 over a full season, he will eclipse 35 homers. Lawrie has been a bust for years, and looks like the kind of player that magically turns into an All-Star after Billy Beane signs him.

Tier-6 = Bench/Waiver Wire Guys

C.Utley, PHI

A.Cabrera, TB

J.Gyorko, SD

M.Prado, MIA 3B-OF

B.Phillips, CIN

A.Alcantara, CHC

A.Hill, ARI

            Gyorko has the most upside here (he’s a homeless man’s Baez in terms of power potential), while Prado’s versatility is as valuable in fantasy as it is in real life.

2015 Fantasy Baseball Drafting/Bidding Tips

            Last year for the first time we posted our fantasy baseball draft guidelines. Most of my though processes are the same going into this year, but there a couple of new theories we’d like to introduce.

Statistical Scarcity is More Important Than Positional Scarcity

            Loyal readers of this blog (all five of you) will recall that every year I write that you should value infielders more than outfielders and wait on pitching. That’s still true to an extent, but for the first time we are placing higher value on hitters with high counting stat ceilings, regardless of position.

            Back in days of rampant steroid use, power hitting was all over the place. In 1998, 33 players eclipsed 30 home runs. Last year, eleven players in all of MLB hit 30+ home runs. In years past, we’ve always ranked guys like Robinson Cano or Troy Tulowitzki high because of the lack of talent at their respective positions, but would you rather have the 14 homers and 82 RBIs Cano put up last year, or the 34 and 98 put up by Edwin Encarnacion despite missing 34 games? Even though first base is deeper, Encarnacion’s counting numbers are far more valuable overall. Having the best second basemen, shortstop, or catcher isn’t the same advantage it was 15 years ago due to the superior stats you could’ve had with a top-flight outfielder or first basemen.

You Need to Understand Your League Rules Before Drafting

            ESPN’s Matthew Berry writes this in all of his draft day manifesto pieces, but it’s so true. Your league’s rules have an immense impact on the value you should place on certain players and positions. Here are the important ones to consider.

-         Is your league rotisserie or head-to-head? If it’s head-to-head, you can spend higher draft picks on players likely to start the year in the minors or on the DL.

-         How many utility spots are in your lineup? If the answer is more than one, you should strongly consider drafting two highly ranked first basemen to accumulate extra power stats.

-         Dynasty league or redraft? Redraft league players should not overvalue prospects, as it’s unlikely they’ll return significant value.

-         What are the pitching requirements and/or limits? Roto leagues with inning caps make it simple to determine how many pitchers you need for the season.

-         Are there additional roster spots for injured players or minor leaguers? Knowing whether or not you can stash Jose Fernandez until June and replace him on the active roster with a healthy pitcher is sort of valuable.

-         How many teams are there? It sounds stupid, but I don’t know how many times I’ve been in drafts where fellow league members were freaking out because they weren’t happy with the players left on the board at third base. In general the more teams there are starting pitchers are less valuable, while relief pitchers are more important.

Runs Matter For Hitters, Which is Weird

            In an era where offense is as pathetic as it has been since the dead ball era, it makes sense that “runs” is an overlooked stat. Consider that in 1998, 39 players cracked 100 runs scored, and 42 had 100 RBIs. In 2014, seven players scored at least 100 runs (seven!), and 12 made it to 100 RBIs. Even though Mike Trout’s stolen base production was down last year, placing first in runs scored and second in RBIs helped him maintain his place as the most valuable offensive fantasy player. Production in these two categories matters more than ever with scoring so scarce.

            Over the next few weeks, we will be posting position-by-position breakdowns (we’re adopting the tier format we’ve used for football the last two years. It worked pretty well for my fantasy football squads, might as well try it with baseball), so be on the lookout for those throughout the month of March.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

            Here are the first ten players No Credentials picked in our fourth annual mock draft. If you missed the preview of this mock, click here.

 



1-1 = Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

2014 Projection = .328 AVG, 44 HRs, 127 RBIs, 103 Rs, 3 SBs
            He’s taken over Albert Pujols’ place as best hitter in the game, and with the addition of Ian Kinsler, could have even more RBI opportunities this year. Keeper league owners do need to keep in mind that Cabrera will be playing at first this year, so he’s not a long term option at third anymore.

1-2 = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2014 Projection = .303 AVG, 27 HRs, 87 RBIs, 118 Rs, 39 SBs
            Unquestionably the most valuable player in keeper league drafts or auctions, we dropped Trout below Miggy because of the lower RBI potential. I could be talked into moving Trout up to first if I knew he was going to hit third in the Angels lineup and still get the green light to run. Regardless, he’s the best option on the board if you’re looking for good to elite production in the standard hitting categories.

1-3 = Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

2014 Projection = .299 AVG, 34 HRs, 117 RBIs, 102 Rs, 16 SBs
            Goldschmidt’s 2013 stat line reminds me of an old school Jeff Bagwell year from the mid-90s. I’d be willing to wager on him eclipsing 40 dingers this year, and if you took him first in your fantasy draft, you wouldn’t be totally crazy.

1-4 = Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 23 HRs, 104 RBIs, 97 Rs, 7 SBs
            I’ve gone back and forth on this several times since Cano signed with Seattle (and still might change my opinion multiple times before the season starts), but ultimately I don’t think Cano will experience a dramatic drop off in production. One needs to remember that it was a not a typically stacked Yankees offense last year that Cano was hitting in the middle of. With increased production from some of Seattle’s younger players (I’m looking at you Justin Smoak), Cano could actually find himself in a better situation to produce.

1-5 = Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

2014 Projection = .282 AVG, 47 HRs, 127 RBIs, 98 Rs, 3 SBs
            While it would be foolish to guaruantee that Davis will exceed last year’s home run total, his advanced metrics say he shouldn’t experience any significant regression. A few of his dingers from last year might morph into doubles, but I’ll still sign off on him delivering elite power numbers hitting in the middle of a solid Orioles lineup.

1-6 = Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, 88 Rs, 16 SBs
            This feels like a slight reach (mostly because it is), but sooner rather than later Harper is going to deliver a hammer of the god’s fantasy season. The percentages say all three of the next outfielders will have better seasons, but none of them have the ceiling Harper has.

1-7 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 33 HRs, 88 RBIs, 88 Rs, 24 SBs
            I’ve written a paragraph in Cargo’s player write-up the previous three years about how I don’t like to draft players like him because of their high strikeout totals and low walk rates. Well, all Gonzalez has done is produce elite fantasy numbers year in and year out. It’s time to award him for consistency.

1-8 = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 30 HRs, 93 RBIs, 102 Rs, 24 SBs
            The centerpiece of an up and coming Pirates team, ultimately the lack of firepower in the Pirates lineup is what has us ranking McCutchen so low (both ESPN and Yahoo have him ranked in the top-5). If you have the chance to draft him with the eighth pick, you should be ecstatic.

1-9 = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

2014 Projection = .273 AVG, 30 HRs, 98 RBIs, 89 Rs, 18 SBs
            Ryan Braun is an asshole, which normally isn’t a favorable character trait, but in this case it is. Most players dealing with fan backlash from being caught doping crumble (Rafael Palmeiro, a TECMO Super Baseball favorite, is a prime example), but Braun already dealt with this in 2012. All he did that year was win the NL MVP. It won’t be shocking if he drops into the second round in numerous fantasy leagues, but there’s still a fair chance he delivers top-5 value at the end of the season.

1-10 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = 20 Ws, 235 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
            Kershaw has separated himself as the most dominant starting pitcher in the game, and pitching on a loaded Dodgers roster, there is no reason that any other pitcher should come off the board before him. Somewhere around the end of the first or early second round is where I’d be comfortable taking him.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guidelines

            It’s that time of year again…No Credentials Nerd Fest! Incredibly, this will be the fourth year we’ve done a one man mock draft (where I make the picks for every team in a fictitious ten-team league). Hopefully, I won’t have a second straight mock draft ruined by Influenza, so we’ll be able to cover 250 players before fantasy draft/auction season.
            Before we begin diving into the picks, I decided to list my general draft theory for all of the positions. Besides giving anyone who is in the same fantasy league as me this year pre-draft knowledge of how I value players, it will save me from having to explain why Clayton Kershaw or Yu Darvish is ranked so low in my mock draft (spoiler alert!). In turn, this will save time so we can discuss each individual players outlook more as opposed to repeating over and over why I wait on outfielders (another spoiler alert!). You can choose to agree or disagree with how I look to build fantasy teams, but if it gets you thinking, that’s all I’m asking for.   

Catcher – Far and away the weakest position in fantasy this year, but there really isn’t an elite option that would be wise to reach on. Buster Posey will go in the fourth or fifth round of your fantasy draft (or fetch a high price in an auction), but is that draft spot really worth it for .294-15-72 (his batting average, dingers, and RBIs from a season ago)? My preference here would be to wait on the position, and gamble on getting career years from guys like Salvador Perez or Matt Wieters. Brian McCann also is a fascinating player that more than likely will go sometime after the tenth round.

When I Want to Draft One - Late.

First Base – There was a time during the steroids era that it would be very difficult to end up with a fantasy first basemen that didn’t hit 30+ homers, but alas times have changed, and first base arguably has the least amount of depth it has ever had. Of guys eligible for first base in standard Yahoo leagues this year, only Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, and Mark Trumbo topped that number last season. Goldschmidt is the clear number three player on my board after Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are off the board. Davis deserves to end up in the top-10 as well. After that, you’re left with a group of players you can’t totally trust. It would be reasonable to expect Prince Fielder to once again deliver elite power numbers in Texas, but even that feels iffy at this stage in his career.

When I Want to Draft One – Either one of the top-5 options, or wait until every other team has filled the spot.

Second Base – Similar to catcher, second base isn’t very deep, but there are a few elite options at the top of the rankings. Robinson Cano is a little difficult to forecast, but I feel better about his possible production knowing that he put up a .314-27-107 line hitting in the middle of a putrid, injury-ridden Yankees lineup. Jason Kipnis is the best bet to deliver the best all-around stat line, as something along the lines of .280-20-90-90-30 is possible. Dustin Pedroia might be asked to run more for an Ellsbury-less Red Sox lineup, which will boost his numbers. Ian Kinsler is an interesting buy-low candidate, as he’s dropped from a player typically ranked in the top-30 over the past few years to 71 in Yahoo’s preseason ranks. Of any player that could go in the sixth or seventh round, he presents the most obvious potential to swing fantasy leagues.

When I want to Draft One – As soon as the value of the pick (or auction price) equals the value of the player on the board. Anywhere from the first to fifteenth round is where I’ll be drafting second basemen this year.

Third Base – The hot corner has the most variety of any position, as it hosts the most valuable infielder in fantasy (Miguel Cabrera), another group of four players behind him that you’d love to start on your team, and then a mix of injury prone guys and young stars waiting to break out. I favor filling my infield spots first on my fantasy teams, so I’ll probably reach for one of the top-5 ranked guys in every draft I do, but it would be logical to wait until the eighth round and draft Pedro Alvarez or Josh Donaldson.

When I Want to Draft One – Go ahead and re-read the previous sentence if that didn’t sink in enough for you.

Short Stop – Shortstop is kind of a train wreck, as there is more injury risk here than any other spot on the diamond. If you could guaruantee that Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes would give you 150 games played this year, they would all be first round picks. I think one of these three stays healthy, and will likely be the most owned player on fantasy championship teams this season. Ian Desmond and Jean Segura are closely ranked this pre-season, but I’m taking Segura over Desmond all day. I’d be fine ending up with Elvis Andrus (quietly netted 42 stolen bases last year) or Starlin Castro (too talented to play as poorly as he did in 2013 for a second straight year) somewhere around the ninth or tenth rounds if I were gun shy about taking one of the three lottery tickets.

When I Want to Draft One – I’ll be willing to bite on Tulo or Hanley earlier than most, so if I’m caught with the dreaded late-first/early-second combo, one of those two are ending up on my team. Otherwise, I’ll draft Elvis Andrus like I’ve done on at least one fantasy team for the last four years.

Outfielders – Our only offensive position with significant depth, how early you take them will ultimately depend on how much you value position scarcity. For example, Hunter Pence put up 27 dingers and 22 steals last year, and he’s currently a sixth round pick. This is ultimately why I’ll rank Miguel Cabrera first instead of Mike Trout (in redraft leagues anyway). It’s not a knock on Trout. It’s just that the difference in production between the tenth best first baseman and Cabrera is much greater than the difference between Trout and the tenth best outfielder. Until my infield is filled, I’m not taking an outfielder unless his production is significantly greater than anyone else on the board.

When I Want to Draft Them – I’ll take them as the draft or auction dictates, but if there’s a debate between taking an infielder or outfielder, the infielder will win every time.

Starting Pitchers – If you’ve gotten this far into this column (no small feat!), I’ll assume that you know Clayton Kershaw is pretty good at pitching. This doesn’t change the fact that if you draft him fifth in your fantasy draft (which is where Yahoo has him ranked), you’re an idiot. For grins and giggles, here are some 2013 stat lines for assorted pitchers, with their Yahoo preseason position rank listed after it.

Anibal Sanchez, Tigers – 14 Wins, 202 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, #15 ranked SP

Mike Minor, Braves – 13 Wins, 181 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, #25 ranked SP
Justin Masterson, Indians – 14 Wins, 195 Ks, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, #50 ranked SP

            Sure those weren’t Kershaw’s numbers, but still pretty solid. The real issue here is the value of not taking a first round quality hitter and replacing him with a lesser option. If you’re taking Kershaw in the middle of the first, you’re passing on guys like Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano. I’d even put Yu Darvish (who’s ranked 15) into this discussion as a guy you can’t take because of the offensive talent you’re missing out on. I’d much rather start building my pitching staff in the fourth round and then go from there.

When I Want to Draft Them – In a perfect world, I’ll have two of them through the first ten rounds, and then load up on starters the rest of the way.

Closers – We’ll keep the closer conversation short…saves always pop up during the season. Do not freak out if you come out of the draft with only two or three closers. Do your homework, stay on top of bullpen situations, and by the middle of the summer you could have a full slate of five bullpen guys racking up saves for you.

 
            So there you have it. Keep this post in mind as you read through the following mock draft rounds in this space over the next month or so.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (12/6-12/8)

10. United States Draws the Group of Death for 2014 World Cup
            American futbol fans are going to have to adopt another team if they want to follow a club beyond group play next year. The Americans will be lucky to win a game.

9. Rudy Gay Shipped to Sacramento

            It takes a franchise as dysfunctional as Sacramento to take on a $20 million a year player shooting 39% from the field, and that’s exactly what Toronto found. All they need is a favorable lottery spot to build the team around Canadian Andrew Wiggins.

8. Matt Prater Boots a 64-Yard Field Goal

            This is notable because no man in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE had ever successfully converted an attempt this long. We’ll put an asterisk next to it because it happened 5,000 feet above sea level.

7. Colorado Stuns Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
            Long-term, a little adversity for this year’s sensational freshmen class isn’t a bad thing.

6. Robinson Cano Inks $240 Million Deal With Seattle

            In a vacuum, giving a contract of this size too a 31-year old second baseman isn’t that bright. However, when you’re looking to make a splash and let the baseball world know that you mean business, landing a player of Cano’s stature is the right thing to do.

5. Michigan State Upsets Ohio State
4. Auburn Outguns Missouri
            It wouldn’t of been entirely fair if the team from (by far) the country’s hardest conference was shut out of the national championship game by two teams who faced a far inferior slate, but justice was served when the Spartans knocked off the Buckeyes.

3. Kobe Returns

            Sure he almost had more turnovers than points, but it’s great to see the Black Mamba back on the court.
       
2. 49ers Make a Statement Against Seattle
            This game doesn’t change the fact that Seattle is the Super Bowl favorite, but at least the 49ers know they are capable of knocking them off.

1. Patriots Grab Victory From Jaws of Defeat

            It made virtually no sense that Cleveland was trying to win the game (with the moves they’ve made this season, sucking as much as possible to secure as much value from the draft is the way to go), so I guess Tom Brady tossing two touchdowns in the final minute make sense. Unfortunately for Patriots fans, their Super Bowl hopes are likely on ice after Rob Gronkowski shredded a couple of knee ligaments.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (11/29-12/1)

10. Robinson Cano and New York Yankees Far Apart in Negotiations
            Cano is an interesting case study for “everyone knows 10-year mega deals are bad, but some team will be desperate enough to do it”. He’s probably worth $25 million for the next five years, but it will be interesting to see if a team takes the plunge (Dodgers, Nationals, Rangers), or if Cano settles for a shorter deal.

9. Nickpolean Dynafoles Tosses Three More Touchdowns

            2013 has been a weird year of football, but nothing is stranger than Nick Foles starting the year with 19 touchdown passes without throwing a single interception. You keep waiting for the wheels to come off, but he’s starting to look like a guy the Eagles can invest in long term.

8. Indiana Pacers Push Record To 16-1

            The Pacers look more and more like the team that has the best chance to knock the Heat out in the playoffs.

7. Russell Westbrook 3 Leads Thunder Over Warriors
            Oklahoma City did well to hold the fort while Russell Westbrook rounded into form, and now that he is, the Thunder have reestablished themselves as one of the elite teams in the Western Conference again.

6. Hershel, the Governor, and the Prison Go Down on “The Walking Dead”

            We would’ve liked to see the drunk guy go (he got shot, but it looks like he’ll live), but otherwise this episode covered everything No Credentials wanted in the mid-season finale.

5. Ohio State Hangs On For Dear Life Against Michigan
            After surviving in Ann Arbor, the Buckeyes need a win in the Big 10 Championship Game against Michigan State too (computers permitting) have a chance at a national title.

4. Denver Puts Up 28 Straight, Takes Control of AFC

            On what proved to be a bad day to go up against Peyton Manning and Eric Decker in fantasy, Kansas City proved once and for all that they aren’t quite ready for primetime.

3. Patriots Pull Out Victory Over Pesky Texans

            Based on the past two weeks, it wouldn’t be shocking if the Patriots demise were the result of some team running the ball down their throats.
       
2. Josh Gordon Carries My Fantasy Teams to Victory
            Sure it hasn’t resulted in real life wins, but Josh Gordon has been swinging fantasy leagues across the country. His stat line over the last two weeks is 24 receptions, 498 yards, and three touchdowns, which is all the more impressive when you consider the vast majority of these receptions were made while Brandon Weeden was throwing him the ball.

1. Auburn Runs Back Missed Field Goal, Stuns Alabama

            I guess anytime you can give a freshman who had made one of two field goal attempts this season (with the made field goal coming from 20 yards out) an oppurtunity to kick a 57-yard field goal with one second left in a tie game, you have to do it. Other than quitting the Miami Dolphins after just weeks earlier saying he wouldn’t take the Alabama job, this should go down as the biggest “W.T.F.” moment of Nick Saban’s career.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

     Welcome to the third annual fantasy baseball mock draft. Today we start the tedious task of building ten individual fantasy teams from scratch. The format for this fake league is a standard, single-year 10-team head-to-head league with 5 x 5 scoring (I think we just set the record for nerdiest sentence in No Credentials history). I make each individual pick myself, without any bias to any of the ten teams. In other words, I try to make the best choice for each team with every given selection. Each roster will be 25 players deep, which is larger than your standard leagues, but will allow me to cover a few more "sleeper" picks (I put sleeper in quotes because if you do enough research, you'll find eleventybillion articles on who experts think will be "sleepers" this year. By the way, research means "doing a Google search" in the world of No Credentials).
     Before we get started, I'll share a few of my basic principles that I will draft my teams with this season. These principles apply for all rounds of the draft.

1. With the lack of offense in the non-steroids era, I will generally wait on starting pitching. I prefer to have one staff ace picked in the first five rounds, but don't mind waiting until as late as the tenth round to take a second starter.
2. Ditto for closers. With a little foresight, saves can always be found during the season.
3. Infielders are more valuable than outfielders, as there simply isn't a whole lot of depth at any of the infield spots. Even first base, which traditionally has been the deepest position in fantasy for years, doesn't look as sexy after Pujols-Votto-Fielder come off the board. I'll happily try to plug one or two holes in my outfield during the season via trade or the waiver wire if it means I have a solid group of infielders I can rely on.

     Without further ado, the first round...

 

1-1  = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .285, 22 HRs, 69 RBIs, 112 Rs. 46 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            I see where regression is certainly possible from Trout’s unbelievable .326-30-83-129-49 line, but even if his batting average were to drop 40 points, the added month of play should keep his counting stats high. If he hits for less power, that will probably translate to more steals. No matter which way you slice it Trout will be a top-5 fantasy producer.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .336, 39 HRs, 127 RBIs, 116 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Coming off the first Triple Crown winning season in 46 years, Cabrera has a solid chance of repeating the feat with the additions of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez to the line-up.
 
1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = .313, 33 HRs, 109 RBIs, 106 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-2 through 1-4
            Cano’s level of production at second base is unparalleled among his peers. If New York makes the post season, pencil him in as your AL MVP.
 
1-4  = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
ESPN Projections = .319, 36 HRs, 111 RBIs, 108 Rs, 29 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-1 through 1-4
            Braun already has delivered one outstanding season while dealing with PED allegations, so there’s no reason to believe that his link to a Florida steroids dealer will impact him this year.

1-5  = Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

ESPN Projections = .313, 35 HRs, 116 RBIs, 97 Rs, 1 SB
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 1-10
            We already talked about what Detroit’s off-season acquisitions could do for Miguel Cabrera, but they should be even more valuable for Prince Fielder. Expect him to see a few more fastballs to crank out of the park this year.

1-6  = Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

ESPN Projections = .297, 33 HRs, 103 RBIs, 98 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-11
            Kemp might not steal 39 bases like he did in 2011 ever again, but if healthy, 40 dingers, 120 RBIs, and 115 Rs are in play with Adrian Gonzalez hitting behind him.
 
1-7  = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ESPN Projections = .299, 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 101 Rs, 24 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-15
            If we could somehow transport McCutchen to a team with an actual clean-up hitter, we’d be talking about a potential top overall pick. For now, he’s a plus 5-category contributor who is just entering his prime.

1-8  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

ESPN Projections = .300, 34 HRs, 115 RBIs, 102 Rs, 10 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-5 through 2-12
            Pujols isn’t the level of player he used to be (to be honest, who is? Pujols was ridiculous in his prime with St. Louis), but there’s a strong possibility his second season in the American League will go better than the first.
 

1-9  = Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

ESPN Projections = .320, 28 HRs, 98 RBIs, 95 Rs, 9 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-7 through 2-18
           The riskiest pick of this first round group, Votto needs to demonstrate his power has returned before you should consider making him the centerpiece of your fantasy team. No Credentials is stepping out on a limb and predicting he will return to his pre-injury form of a year ago, but watch him closely in Spring Training.
 
1-10 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 234 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 1-8 through 2-20
            Hopefully freed of the innings limit that that took him out of the Nationals stretch run (it’s sort of like “Django Unchained”, minus the slavery), Strasburg will be fully unleashed on the National League. I’m more bullish on him than most experts, predicting that his ERA lands somewhere in the 2.80 range. Being able to contribute for the whole season will benefit him immensely.

Click here to check out the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the mock draft



No Credentials Keeper Team Player Ranks

            Loyal readers of this blog (all 11 of you) will recall that I used to write periodically about my fantasy baseball team. Why haven’t I done it yet this season? To put it simply, no one other than myself and the nine other people in my keeper league give a shit about it. Nevertheless, I feel compelled to post a ranking of all 35 players currently on my team. We’ll be able to keep 10 players after this year, so the top 10 are the players I would keep if the season ended right now. Just for a refresher, here are the basic league rules and notes.

-         The price of a keeper player is forfeiting whichever draft pick was used on that player originally (with a tax and players who’ve been kept 2+ years, but we don’t need to get into that).

-         We kept 5 after last season, 10 after this year, and will be keeping 15 after 2013 and every year after that.

-         I won the league last year thanks to good fortune during the first half of the season, and a flurry of trades halfway through the season. I was able to acquire Robinson Cano and Evan Longoria via trade, and added an arsenal of pitchers just before the trade deadline. One of the 10 most incredible things I’ve ever accomplished was successfully completing four trades in one day in the same league.

-         Before this year, I kept Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, and Desmond Jennings.

-         Shortly after the season started, I was able to move Johnny Cueto and Jose Valverde for Nelson Cruz (lost that trade so far), and then swapped Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy for Ryan Braun (won that trade big time).

-         Around the start of summer, I was able to acquire Buster Posey and Cliff Lee in two separate deals.

-         Last year, my starting pitching was led by Cole Hamels, James Shields (career year in 2011), Tommy Hanson, Michael Pineda, and Gio Gonzalez. Pineda is the only one of them I was able to get back in the draft, and he’s been stuck on the DL all year. I’ve been punting ERA and WHIP all season. If my offense doesn’t show up, I lose.

-         Last year my team was loaded with minor league prospects. Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, Jacob Turner, and Kyle Gibson were all used to sweeten blockbuster trades, while Eric Hosmer was a nice boost out my utility spot. This year? Not so much. Anthony Rizzo was the only big name I was able to move (in the Cliff Lee trade), but it’s fair to say that Rizzo would’ve been more valuable now than he was when I shipped him out. Trevor Bauer came up after great anticipation, stunk up the joint, and has since been shut down to rest. Dealing with prospects is a fickle mistress.

-         I forgot Adam Jones was on my team last year.

            After the primer, here are the ranks.  

35. Lance Berkman, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Picked up the old guy for some bench depth. Not a chance he’s kept for 2013.

34. Travis Blackley, SP, Oakland Athletics

            I wouldn’t know who Travis Blackley was if he came into my house with a t-shirt that read, “Hi, my name is Travis Blackley.” He’s filling a spot until a couple of my DL guys come back.

33. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves

            It feels like Teheran has been Atlanta’s top pitching prospect for 10 years.

32. Bobby Parnell, RP, New York Mets

31. Frank Francisco, RP, New York Mets
            Parnell is only on board until Francisco returns from the DL. I don’t pay for saves, especially from erratic relievers.

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs

            If you read the previous paragraph carefully, you’ll know why Marmol is ranked at 30.

29. Erik Bedard, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            A brittle pitcher his entire career, Bedard has been shockingly healthy all season long for the resurgent Pirates. He throws out some stinkers, but his K rate is good enough to warrant keeping him around this season.

28. Brandon McCarthy, SP, Oakland Athletics

            He’d be ranked in the top-15 if he could stay healthy for more than a month at a time.

27. Felix Doubront, SP, Boston Red Sox

            Hey, at least he’s better than Jon Lester.

26. Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins

            The best reliever that is apart of Miami’s “closer-by-committee”, Cishek will be in line for even more saves if Heath Bell is shipped out of town.

25. Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins

            The top prospect acquired by Miami when they shipped Annabel Sanchez to the Tigers, Turner should be back up in the majors after the trade deadline.

24. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees

            Best known as “the guy with the bum arm that Seattle was able to pawn off on the Yankees for Jesus Montero”, Pineda should be at full strength for the start of 2013.

23. J.J. Putz, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Since reinforcement is the key to learning, I’ll say it again… I won’t pay for saves.

22. Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            The top pitching prospect in the majors, Bauer had some issues with control in his first few MLB starts, and has now been given a break to rest his arm. Hopefully he’s back in the Diamondbacks rotation in September.

21. Daniel Murphy, 1B-2B-3B, New York Mets

            Murphy is the kind of unsung guy that can boost your team to a fantasy championship. He’s not flashy, but he’s a solid .300 hitter that can fill in three infield spots. Due to Evan Longoria’s health issues, he’s played a lot at 3B.

20. Wil Myers, C-OF, Kansas City Royals

            Myers is the top minor league prospect left on No Cred At All, but unfortunately doesn’t have an open spot in the Royals outfield. Not to mention that he’s 0 for his last 80 in Triple-A.

19. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Miami Marlins

            No Cred’s swift army knife, Bonifacio racks up the steals whenever he is in the lineup.

18. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

            Alvarez is an all or nothing slugger who if he ever figures it out, has the potential to be a 40-homer a year player.

17. Colby Rasmus, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

            I drafted Rasmus last year, traded him before last year’s deadline, and then was able to scoop him up off waivers this season. He’s streaky, but when he’s hot, he can single-handedly win a week.

16. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

            No Credentials still won’t pay for saves, but Papelbon is my all-time favorite Red Sox reliever, so we’ll pay him some respect and put him inside the top-20.

15. Trevor Cahill, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

            Cahill would be much better off if he didn’t have to pitch in Arizona, which is a problem when he plays for the Diamondbacks.

14. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

            Acquired early in the season, Cruz has been the biggest disappointment for No Credentials. 

13. Jonathan Niese, SP, New York Mets

            The fact that Niese ranks this high on my list makes me seriously doubt my team’s championship chances this year.

12. Phil Hughes, SP, New York Yankees

            After a miserable 2011, Hughes has rebounded to have a serviceable season. He’d be a shoe-in for the top-10 if he could figure out how to stop giving up gopher balls.

11. Matt Moore, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

            Moore has unquestioned stuff, and recently has figured out how to more consistently throw strikes. A strong final two months by Moore will easily push him into the top-10.

10. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            I made a trade for Lee in early June, which means my team has collected 100% of his wins this season. Unfortunately, that only amounts to one. No Credentials is cheering hard for a panic trade to the Rangers.

9. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland Indians

            Figured he’d be just a one-year rental, but Choo’s success in the leadoff spot has pushed him ahead of Nelson Cruz on the outfield depth chart.

8. James McDonald, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

            The waiver wire pick-up of the year for No Credentials, McDonald has been the lone ray of consistency in the No Credentials starting rotation. He’s hit a rough patch since the All-Star break, but look for him to bounce back soon for the resurgent Pirates.

7. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            Andrus was the one player that I absolutely had to draft this year, and was fortunate to get him at the start of the fourth round with my first available draft pick. An improved eye at the plate has allowed Andrus to post a career high .370 on-base percentage. Incredibly he’s playing his fourth season in baseball, and he’s only 23 years old.

6. Buster Posey, C-1B, San Francisco Giants
            Posey was a mid-season trade acquisition (which the other team received among other things, Ted Lilly, who I’m pretty sure made exactly one start for his new team. Sorry Ethan) who solidified the poop sandwich I was rolling out at catcher every night.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins

            Stanton was having a breakout campaign before a balky knee sidelined him until sometime in August.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

            An RBI machine in April, Longoria tore his hamstring and hasn’t seen the field since. A return this week will be a welcome pick me up. 

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

            Hasn’t cranked out the normal amount of dingers, but Fielder has done everything else in his first season with the Tigers. To think that I almost ditched him and kept Eric Hosmer for 2012. Yikes.

2. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

            It doesn’t really make sense how Ryan Braun ended up on my team, but let me run through the details. Before the season, the owner that had the rights to him chose not to keep him (which at the time seemed laughable, but the player he kept instead was Mike Trout, which only cost a thirtieth round pick. That decision worked out). My friend Ethan won the first overall pick in our preseason draft lottery (don’t ask), and wisely used it on Braun. Unfortunately for him, either alcohol or foolhardiness caused him to trade Braun to me for Desmond Jennings and Ian Kennedy. That’s right, an outfielder who’s barely hitting .240 and a pitcher who’s thrown up a mediocre 4.20 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. In defense of him, Jennings was a fourth round pick in redraft leagues that he would be able to keep at the price of a thirtieth round pick n year, and Kennedy was one of the best ten pitchers in baseball last year. Needless to say, Braun has been the MVP of No Cred At All. Without him, we never would’ve survived the early season struggles of Fielder and Robinson Cano.

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

            Cano hasn’t been better than Braun this season, but he’s far and away the top second baseman in baseball. The difference in value between Cano and the tenth best 2B is much greater than the difference between the top first baseman and the tenth best 1B. 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft - Round 1

     Welcome to No Credentials second annual "Nerdfest", a month and a half long series showing how No Credentials would build 12 teams for a non-keeper league fantasy baseball team. My ranks should hold up well for either roto or head-to-head leagues. While this mock is based on a non-keeper league, I will occasionally call out guys who's value should be adjusted if you're building a keeper team, or if you are participating in an auction. Without further ado...

1-1. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
.302 AVG, 28 HRS, 118 RBIs, 104 Rs, 8 SBs
             Cano plays the weakest position in fantasy, and all indications are that this will be his first full season hitting third. Having Mark Teixeira hitting behind him will give him more fastballs to crank out of Yankee Stadium.

1-2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies

.302 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 81 Rs, 9 SBs
            Tulo plays the second weakest position in fantasy, and he’s a healthy year (which has never happened) away from his first 40-homer season.

1-3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

.344 AVG, 30 HRs, 105 RBIs, 111 Rs, 2 SBs
            Cabrera plays the third weakest position in fantasy (notice a trend?), and he has a near equal on his club for the first time in the form of Prince Fielder. It appears likely that Cabrera will hit in front of Fielder, which like Cano, should increase the number of quality pitches he has to hit.  

1-4. Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Toronto Blue Jays

.302 AVG, 43 HRs, 103 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            Two years is enough of a sample size to declare Bautista a top-5 worthy pick. Depending on the position eligibility rules of your league, he’s #1 pick worthy in re-draft leagues if you can plug him in at third base.

1-5. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

.299 AVG, 37 HRs, 99 RBIs, 105 Rs, 9 SBs
            I’m not crazy about the Angels line-up around Pujols, but if Pujols could help Lance Berkman return to elite status, couldn’t he do the same for a guy like Vernon Wells? Expect strategic use of the DH spot to keep Pujols fresh throughout the season.

1-6. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds

.309 AVG, 29 HRs, 103 RBIs, 101 Rs, 8 SBs
            Votto’s power numbers were down, but he showed improved plate discipline, drawing over 100 walks for the first time in his career. A return to 35+ homers is likely.

1-7. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

.244 AVG, 31 HRs, 99 RBIs, 78 Rs, 3 SBs
            Blame a dreadful BABIP for Longoria’s deflated 2011 batting average. A return to the norm in that statistic combined with avoiding the DL could lead to an MVP-caliber season for Longoria. Don’t be shocked if he puts up a .285-41-125-105-15 line.

1-8. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers

.324 AVG, 39 HRs, 126 RBIs, 115 Rs, 40 SBs
            There’s a 5% chance that Kemp will be available with the eighth pick in your draft, but here’s why he’s this low in this mock. Let’s take a look at what I wrote last year about Kemp in my 2011 mock draft.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.
After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from fourth through the eighth pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.
With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

            To make a long story short, the same theory still applies, but in reverse. Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio last season was 159-74. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Kemp’s average fell back into the .260 range. If that’s the case, his counting stats won’t be nearly as high (think something closer to 25-25 in homers and steals, which is still useful, but not first round worthy with a mediocre batting average). Rather than spend a top-3 pick on Kemp in the draft (or spend too much on him in an auction), I’d prefer to target him in a trade if he starts slow this season.

1-9. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox

.338 AVG, 27 HRs, 117 RBIs, 108 Rs, 1 SB
            Take 15 of the 45 doubles Gonzalez cranked out, turn them into homeruns, and you get the 42+ homers No Credentials expects Gonzo to hit in 2012. You could take him fifth in your draft and I wouldn’t make fun of you.

1-10. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

.298 AVG, 38 HRs, 120 RBIs, 95 Rs, 1 SB
            His home run total might dip a bit, but the rest of his counting stats should be similar being paired up with Miguel Cabrera as they were with Ryan Braun.

1-11. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox

.321 AVG, 31 HRs, 105 RBIs, 119 Rs, 39 SBs
            Ellsbury probably should be higher, but No Credentials would like to see one more healthy season before using a top-5 pick on him. If he suits up for 155+ games again, he should produce a .300 AVG and 70 combined homers and steals.

1-12. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

21-5, 2.28 ERA, 248 Ks, 0.98 WHIP
            Kershaw has reduced his walk rate every year in the league, and at age 23, appears poised to be the dominant pitcher in the National League for the next decade. The advantage of being in the NL puts Kershaw ahead of Verlander in my book. Anyone that owns Kershaw in a keeper league but decides not to keep him for 2012 should be banned from playing fantasy baseball.            

           

No Cred At All Keeper Team Ranks

We're a little late, but here's the mid-season rankings of the order I would consider keeping the players that are currently on my keeper team if I were forced to decide today. I am able to keep five players for next season. The price of keeping player is a draft pick that corresponds to where a player was taken the year before.

Barring Injury, the Cornerstones of My Franchise

1. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – With the early season struggles of Hanley Ramirez, I was wishing I could go back in time and draft Cano first overall. Fortunately, I was able to put together a blockbuster trade to secure Cano on my team through 2015.

2. Michael Pineda, SP, Mariners – The only pitcher at this point that is locked in to be kept on my team. If I keep him for the full five years, he’ll only cost me a 12h round pick in 2015.

3. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – Perhaps it’s the second hand smoke from 80-year old Jack McKeon, but Hanley has been on fire ever since the Marlins switched managers.

4. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Another player that I gave up a lot to acquire mid-season, Longoria still hasn’t fully emerged from his early season slump.

     On the Bubble

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Fielder has been the offensive MVP of my team, but it’s 2012 and beyond that scares me. Will Fielder still be motivated after signing a $175 million contract, or will he eat 175 million Big Mac’s to celebrate his new found wealth?

      First Four Out

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals – He hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s still been the second best offensive rookie so far this season (behind Dustin Ackley, who I shipped out to acquire Cano). Fielder is without question the better player right now, but Hosmer has a very good chance to be a better player as soon as next season.

7. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins – Plate discipline is certainly an issue, but then again, discipline is usually an issue for anyone that is 21 years old. He would probably go in the first five rounds of next years draft if I don’t protect him.

8. James Shields, SP, Rays – His insanely low price tag (I snagged him in the 25^th round) plus his ridiculous performance (nearly a strikeout per inning, six complete games) has forced me to place Shields higher on this list. The wise move for me would be to find a trade partner that would intend to keep Shields and swing him for another arm and a quality bat.

9. Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves – He has put it all together this season with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

      Too Expensive

10. Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – With only five players allowed to be kept, Hamels 4^th round price tag is too expensive a price to pay for a pitcher.

      Nice Guys, But Can’t Keep You

11. Matt Wieters, C, Orioles – Buster Posey’s injury is exhibit A of why you shouldn’t spend too much on a catcher. They are one nasty home plate collision away from missing a full season.

12. B.J. Upton, OF, Rays – Doesn’t hit for average, but his power and speed make him a valuable fantasy commodity.

13. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics – His WHIP is a little too high for my liking (making him a candidate for potential regression), but otherwise he’s been an unsung hero for No Cred At All.

14. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles – I just traded Brandon Phillips for Jones the other day (Phillips was expendable after the acquisition of Cano). His inability to take a walk is a bit scary, but Jones is capable of delivering 10-15 home runs and 5 steals the rest of the way.

      Top Three Farm Hands Left

15. Brett Lawrie, 2B-3B, Blue Jays – Lawrie broke his hand the day before Toronto was going to call him up in June. We should see him sometime around the trade deadline.

16. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays – Tampa held back Jennings longer than expected, and then he suffered a small fracture in one of his fingers.

17. Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins – I was hopeful that Scott Baker’s DL stint would allow the Twins to call up their top pitching prospect, but there has been no word yet of such a move.

      Un-keep-able

18. Justin Masterson, SP, Indians

19. Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates

20. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

21. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals

22. Jordan Walden, RP, Angels

23. Vernon Wells, OF, Angels

24. Chris Perez, RP, Indians

25. Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Rays

26. Jamey Carroll, 2B-3B-SS-OF, Dodgers

27. Mike Leake, SP, Reds

28. Joe Nathan, RP, Twins

29. Randy Wolf, SP, Brewers

30. Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs

31. Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers