2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

            Here are the first ten players No Credentials picked in our fourth annual mock draft. If you missed the preview of this mock, click here.

 



1-1 = Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

2014 Projection = .328 AVG, 44 HRs, 127 RBIs, 103 Rs, 3 SBs
            He’s taken over Albert Pujols’ place as best hitter in the game, and with the addition of Ian Kinsler, could have even more RBI opportunities this year. Keeper league owners do need to keep in mind that Cabrera will be playing at first this year, so he’s not a long term option at third anymore.

1-2 = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2014 Projection = .303 AVG, 27 HRs, 87 RBIs, 118 Rs, 39 SBs
            Unquestionably the most valuable player in keeper league drafts or auctions, we dropped Trout below Miggy because of the lower RBI potential. I could be talked into moving Trout up to first if I knew he was going to hit third in the Angels lineup and still get the green light to run. Regardless, he’s the best option on the board if you’re looking for good to elite production in the standard hitting categories.

1-3 = Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

2014 Projection = .299 AVG, 34 HRs, 117 RBIs, 102 Rs, 16 SBs
            Goldschmidt’s 2013 stat line reminds me of an old school Jeff Bagwell year from the mid-90s. I’d be willing to wager on him eclipsing 40 dingers this year, and if you took him first in your fantasy draft, you wouldn’t be totally crazy.

1-4 = Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 23 HRs, 104 RBIs, 97 Rs, 7 SBs
            I’ve gone back and forth on this several times since Cano signed with Seattle (and still might change my opinion multiple times before the season starts), but ultimately I don’t think Cano will experience a dramatic drop off in production. One needs to remember that it was a not a typically stacked Yankees offense last year that Cano was hitting in the middle of. With increased production from some of Seattle’s younger players (I’m looking at you Justin Smoak), Cano could actually find himself in a better situation to produce.

1-5 = Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

2014 Projection = .282 AVG, 47 HRs, 127 RBIs, 98 Rs, 3 SBs
            While it would be foolish to guaruantee that Davis will exceed last year’s home run total, his advanced metrics say he shouldn’t experience any significant regression. A few of his dingers from last year might morph into doubles, but I’ll still sign off on him delivering elite power numbers hitting in the middle of a solid Orioles lineup.

1-6 = Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, 88 Rs, 16 SBs
            This feels like a slight reach (mostly because it is), but sooner rather than later Harper is going to deliver a hammer of the god’s fantasy season. The percentages say all three of the next outfielders will have better seasons, but none of them have the ceiling Harper has.

1-7 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 33 HRs, 88 RBIs, 88 Rs, 24 SBs
            I’ve written a paragraph in Cargo’s player write-up the previous three years about how I don’t like to draft players like him because of their high strikeout totals and low walk rates. Well, all Gonzalez has done is produce elite fantasy numbers year in and year out. It’s time to award him for consistency.

1-8 = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 30 HRs, 93 RBIs, 102 Rs, 24 SBs
            The centerpiece of an up and coming Pirates team, ultimately the lack of firepower in the Pirates lineup is what has us ranking McCutchen so low (both ESPN and Yahoo have him ranked in the top-5). If you have the chance to draft him with the eighth pick, you should be ecstatic.

1-9 = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

2014 Projection = .273 AVG, 30 HRs, 98 RBIs, 89 Rs, 18 SBs
            Ryan Braun is an asshole, which normally isn’t a favorable character trait, but in this case it is. Most players dealing with fan backlash from being caught doping crumble (Rafael Palmeiro, a TECMO Super Baseball favorite, is a prime example), but Braun already dealt with this in 2012. All he did that year was win the NL MVP. It won’t be shocking if he drops into the second round in numerous fantasy leagues, but there’s still a fair chance he delivers top-5 value at the end of the season.

1-10 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = 20 Ws, 235 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
            Kershaw has separated himself as the most dominant starting pitcher in the game, and pitching on a loaded Dodgers roster, there is no reason that any other pitcher should come off the board before him. Somewhere around the end of the first or early second round is where I’d be comfortable taking him.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 2-3

            If you missed Round 1, click here to get caught up.

2-13. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks

            It feels like Upton has been playing for years, but he’s only 24 years old. A 30-30 season is coming soon.

2-14. Hanley Ramirez, 3B-SS, Miami Marlins

            There are tons of questions surrounding Hanley (is he fully healthy again, will he finally make peace with moving to third base), but if he’s firing on all cylinders, Ramirez could easily be the most valuable player in fantasy this season. Throw in the added third base eligibility (meaning you can plug him in at two of the weakest positions), and he’s well worth the risk at this point in the draft.

2-15. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

            Verlander’s 2011 performance was extraordinary, and it would be foolish for anyone to think he can duplicate it. In increase from last seasons ridiculous .236 BABIP was a certainty even before it was announced that Miguel Cabrera would spend time at third base. He will still be good, but if someone takes Halladay or Cliff Lee ahead of him in your draft, don’t snicker at him or her.

2-16. Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Halladay’s incredible consistency has almost made him a boring player to draft. He might not be the top fantasy pitcher this season, but there isn’t anyone else who is a safer bet to finish the year in the top-5.

2-17. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

            Fresh off a career year in home runs and steals, Pedroia is poised to have another stellar all-around campaign.

2-18. Carlos Gonzalez, LF-CF-RF, Colorado Rockies

            Don’t ever expect his 2010 numbers again, but you shouldn’t be too bummed out about 50 combined homers and steals. You do need to be prepared for a batting average that can be anywhere from .260 to .320.

2-19. Jose Reyes, SS, Miami Marlins

            If you like to gamble, you’ll bet on Reyes staying healthy for 150 games and giving you 50 steals and tons of runs hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton. If you’re conservative, you’ll stay away from him because of his injury history. He’s essentially the MLB version of Mike Vick.

2-20. Mike Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

            I’ve done a full 180 on Stanton, which may or may not be related to the fact that I took him in the eighth round of my keeper league draft last year. He should have more than enough RBI opportunities with Reyes and Ramirez hitting in front of him.

2-21. Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            Cliff Lee attacks the strike zone in a similar manner that George W. Bush assaulted the English language. Like Halladay, another dude that’s not exciting to draft.

2-22. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas Rangers

            Kinsler’s BABIP last seasons suggests that his batting average is due for an increase this year. The fact that 2011 was the first season Kinsler ever dodged the DL suggests that he is due for at least one 15-day stint. Whichever of those last two sentences you feel more strongly about should determine what pick (or money in an auction) you’re willing to spend on him.

2-23. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

            While his first two teammates who were drafted are considered boring, Hamels is the trendy choice. His excellent ERA and WHIP hasn’t translated to the win column the past two seasons, which one could argue means that he’s due for a 20 win season.      

2-24. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

            He won’t do you any favors in the batting average department, but 35+ homers and 110+ RBIs aren’t easy to come by in the post-steroids era.

3-25. Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Weaver delivered a career season last year, but don’t be shocked if his ERA creeps closer to 3 if his BABIP moves closer to the norm. Wins are a tough stat to predict, but with Pujols on board, they should be easier to come by for Weaver and the rest of the Angels staff.

3-26. Andrew McCutcheon, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

            McCutcheon was terrible after the All-Star Break, which derailed a potential breakout season. If he can play an entire season with a .280+ batting average, we could be talking about one of the ten most valuable players in fantasy.

3-27. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

            King Felix still might be the most talented starter in MLB, but Seattle’s anemic offense severely handicaps his win potential. Unless you’re in a league that has more categories than the standard 5x5 league, you have to drop him down your rankings.

3-28. Curtis Granderson, CF, New York Yankees

            Ever since the second half of the 2010 season, Granderson has been the modern day version of Mickey Mantle. Like Teixeira, Granderson will more than likely sport a poor batting average, but walks enough to still set the table for Cano, Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez.

3-29. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees

            His peripheral numbers aren’t as strong as the other elite starters, but there isn’t a safer pitcher to bet on winning 20+ games than C.C. Bump him up your rankings even more if you are in a league that counts innings pitched as a stat category.

3-30. Josh Hamilton, LF-CF, Texas Rangers

            The last time I remember a player going 10 to 15 picks later than he should because of alcohol issues was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera is pretty good (incase you didn’t know), and so is Hamilton. He’s an injury risk, but I feel better taking him in the middle of the third round as opposed to the second.

3-31. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Lincecum is the NL version of Felix Hernandez, with a slightly better offense supporting him and more injury concerns.

3-32. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

            Thanks to the devastating loss of Jose Reyes, Wright’s supporting cast is a cast of misfit toys (with the exception of Ike Davis, if he’s healthy). Wright could be top-10 player in the second half if he gets traded, so he should be a player that is on your radar all season long after the draft.

3-33. Pablo Sandoval, 1B-3B, San Francisco Giants

            No Credentials predicts that this will be the season that the 25-year old Sandoval will crack the 30-homer mark. He won’t rack up a bunch of RBIs (he doesn’t exactly have the TECMO Super Baseball versions of Barry Bonds and Matt Williams on his team), but he delivers enough in the batting average department to warrant being the third player added to a team.

3-34. Desmond Jennings, LF-CF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            This pick is way to early. I’ll acknowledge that. However, guys with the potential to steal 50 bases and hit 15 home runs don’t grow on trees. If he keeps his average above .270 (which he was well above before a disastrous September last season), he’ll be one of the top 20 players in fantasy.

3-35. Nelson Cruz, LF-RF, Texas Rangers

            One of the greatest teases in fantasy baseball. If healthy, Cruz could easily top 45 home runs. However, Cruz pulls a groin about as often as Lindsey Lohan violates her probation. I’d prefer to get him in the middle of the fourth round.

3-36. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

            Amazingly enough, Beltre is the fifth Rangers hitter off the board (think they’ll score some runs this year?) Beltre smashed 32 homers last year in only 124 games. Forecasting 40+ dingers would be a little optimistic (his health won’t allow it), but Beltre is still one of the sexier options at third base in the majors.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 2

Here is the 2nd round of my 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. Keep in mind that the goal here is to put together twelve 25-man teams (if you missed the first round, check out the most recent Sunday Draft).

2-13 = Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies – I would sign off on Utley from anywhere from pick 6 due to the position he plays. With this pick and David Wright at the end of round 1, team 12 would fill two of weaker spots on a fantasy roster with two excellent players.

2-14 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees – Sure he’s getting older, but he will still be hitting clean up in the middle of a powerful Yankees lineup. I would’ve had him in the early 3^rd, but getting fed popcorn by an A-List actress during the Super Bowl bumped his draft stock up. He joins Ryan Braun on Team 11.

2-15 = Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers – Similar to Pujols, I love the fact that Fielder is playing for a new contract. Unlike Pujols, Fielder’s hefty size (and rumored lack of ambition) would make me a little worried about using a pick this high on him. The first boom-or-bust player we’ve selected in the mock, Fielder joins Carl Crawford on Team 10.

2-16 = Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees – A safer pick than Fielder, but doesn’t have the same upside. I wouldn't complain about getting a guy who is a good bet to hit 35 homers with 120 RBIs at this point in the draft. He joins Roy Halladay on Team 9.

2-17 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF-LF-CF-RF, Rockies – Gonzalez was a monster last year. He hit .336 with 34 homers, 117 RBIs, and even through in 26 stolen bases for good measure. Production like that warrants a top-5 pick. So why do I have him this low?

            Gonzalez had a .384 BABIP average (BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play), which was the 3^rd highest in the league. Furthermore, 20.4% of his fly balls (a little over one for every five, for those of you that are slow in the math department) went for home runs. Both of those numbers will be very difficult to maintain. Throw a reduction in those two categories with his very poor strikeout to walk ratio (135-40 last season), and you are looking at a guy who could be a lot less valuable in 2011 than he was in 2010. Would I fault anyone for taking a chance on him in the middle of the first round? No, but you won’t see me making that pick for either of my two teams this season.

            Gonzalez joins Joey Votto on Team 8.

2-18 = Josh Hamilton, OF-LF-CF, Rangers – Hamilton is similar to Gonzalez, but with the added risk of injury thrown in. He led the league last year in BABIP at .391. His plate discipline is a little better than Gonzalez, so his average shouldn’t fall much lower than .280. If you were to pick Hamilton at this point, and he were to stay healthy, there’s a good chance you could win your league. Hamilton joins Adrian Gonzalez on Team 7.

2-19 = Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies – A regression in home runs last season means you will probably get Howard 7 or 8 picks later than you could’ve in 2010. He joins Evan Longoria on Team 6.

2-10 = Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – The only reason Hernandez wouldn’t go as high as Halladay is the disparity between the quality of the Phillies and Mariners. Hernandez joins Hanley Ramirez on Team 5.

2-21 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – Washington may have paid Jayson Werth way too much money, but in terms of Ryan Zimmerman’s fantasy value, he should be invaluable. Zimmerman finally has someone else on his team the opposing pitcher will have to worry about. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Zimmerman put up 30 homers and 110 RBIs. He joins Troy Tulowitzki on Team 4.

2-22 = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Remember the discussion about Carlos Gonzalez earlier? Matt Kemp’s production the past two seasons is a perfect exhibit A for the case I was making for not using a high pick on Gonzalez.

            After putting up 26 homers, 101 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases (along with a .297 batting average) in 2009, Kemp was going anywhere from 4^th through the 8^th pick in the first round last season in fantasy drafts. Kemp rewarded owners with a disappointing .249 batting average. The only category of importance that went up was home runs (he hit 28), but he had less RBIs and stolen bases (89 and 19), and was even benched for a few games by then manager Joe Torre. One telling stat that could’ve predicted Kemp’s 2010 struggles was his terrible strikeout to walk ratio. In 2009, he struck out 139 times to only 52 walks. In 2010, his strikeouts jumped up to 170 with only 53 walks.

            With all that said, why would Kemp be this high then? The answer is simple…because of the same reason Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton were both picked a few spots earlier. Sure there is plenty of risk involved with these players, but if they play to their potential, you are getting guys that could end up being ranked in the top 5 at seasons end. The back half of the 2^nd round is the appropriate time to take these sorts of risks (as opposed to say, the middle of the 1^st). Kemp joins Robinson Cano on Team 3.

2-23 = Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – The best pitcher in the majors that no one ever talks about. Wainwright teams up with Miguel Cabrera on Team 2.

2-24 = Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox – No matter where Pedroia hits in the Red Sox lineup (I’m hoping for second, although there are rumors he will be put in the leadoff spot), he has a chance for a .320-15-90-125-20 season. He joins Pujols on Team 1.