Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Review, Part 1

            We’re at the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season (that also means that we are at the halfway point of real baseball, but sadly for MLB, fantasy baseball is much more interesting to me). Now is a good time to call out some of the good predictions, as well as the crappy ones, made by No Credentials during the pre-season. I’ll find two players from each round of my 25-round mock draft to discuss.

Round 1

GOOD CALL = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – I wrote back in late February that I would sign off on Gonzalez being taken 2^nd in any fantasy league. So far, he’s the 4^th ranked player in all of fantasy.

BAD CALL = Carl Crawford, LF, Red Sox – A little more research could’ve shown that Crawford would not fair well in extra cool weather (which this year in New England, lasted until late-May). Carl was finally starting to heat up before landing on the DL. Look for a big second half from him.

 

 

Round 2

GOOD CALL = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Lost in all the commotion of the Dodgers major financial woes (note to professional sports leagues: Don’t give franchises to people who have assets, but no cold hard cash) is the incredible season Kemp is having. I won’t take to much credit for predicting his success, but I did mention that he had the ability to produce top-5 production. Right now, he’s on pace for a 40-40 season.

BAD CALL = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – A long DL stint is mostly to blame for Zimmerman’s poor first half. He is capable of being a top-5 fantasy 3^rd basemen the rest of the way, so see if you can get him at a steep discount from a disgruntled owner in your league.

Round 3

GOOD CALL = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The league leader in strikeouts, Kershaw has officially arrived as a legitimate fantasy ace.

BAD CALL = Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers – A 5.63 ERA isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were looking from a player who was supposed to anchor a pitching staff.

 

 

Round 4

GOOD CALL = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – He’s cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, but you still can’t complain about a player with dual position eligibility that is on pace to hit 48 home runs.

BAD CALL = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez has been a complete train wreck so far. It looks more and more like his first half performance in 2010 was a fluke.

 

 

Round 5

GOOD CALL = David Price, SP, Rays – Overshadowed by fellow starter James Shields, Price has had a very solid first half. He’s currently ranked 38^th among all players.

BAD CALL = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His terrifying strikeout totals kept me from strongly endorsing Weeks in my mock draft, but so far he has posted a solid batting average along with 14 homers and seven steals.

 

 

Round 6

GOOD CALL = Jay Bruce, RF, Reds – Jay is currently on pace to smack 36 home runs, which gives him an outside shot to have 100 career home runs by the time he’s 24 years old. In retrospect, he should’ve gone in the 3^rd round in my keeper league.

BAD CALL = Mat Latos, SP, Padres – Latos has been a huge disappointment so far for No Credentials. Drafted as the second pitcher in one of my leagues, he’s been destroying my WHIP ever since an early season DL stint. The strikeouts are still there, so he is also a solid buy-low candidate (no one will buy him from me though. I’m in too deep).

Round 7

GOOD CALL = Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies - I predicted 15 homers, 40 steals, and over 100 runs scored for the Flyin’ Hawaiian this year. The steals aren’t quite there, but he’s on pace to hit the other two category goals.

BAD CALL = Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates – The worst pick of my mock so far. I’m embarrassed to say that I endorsed taking him in the 7^th round.

Round 8

GOOD CALL = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Deemed the favorite “under the radar fantasy starter of 2011” by No Credentials, Marcum has delivered as the best pitcher for the first place Brewers.

BAD CALL = Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox – I’m fairly certain that at some point I wrote that the Sox should trade Ellsbury (if you dig deep enough into the No Credentials archive you’ll find it). All he’s done in the first half is steal 25 bases and hit 9 home runs. Without him, Carl Crawford’s struggles would have killed the Red Sox.

 

 

Round 9

GOOD CALL = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – I wrote in early March that if Young kept his batting average over .250 he’d have a shot at a 30-30 season. During the first half, he’s batting .255 with 15 homers and 10 steals.

BAD CALL = Brett Gardner, LF, Yankees – Here’s my preseason write-up on Gardner.

Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58^th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112^th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5^th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9^th.

In related news, a damned fool wrote that Brett Gardner would provide the same production as Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

 

Round 10

GOOD CALL = Michael Bourn, CF, Astros – Bourn is on pace to swipe 70 bags this year. Even though he’s really only a 2-category guy (steals and runs), his dominance on the base paths is enough to have him ranked 24^th among all players in fantasy.

BAD CALL = Chone Figgins, 2B-3B, Mariners – Maybe it’s all the rain in Seattle, but for whatever reason, Figgins’ career has fallen over a cliff since he signed with them before the 2010 season. I finally cut him from my redraft league team three weeks ago.

 

 

Round 11

GOOD CALL = Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles – His .221 batting average has backed up my preseason plea for all fantasy owners to keep him off of their rosters. If you pick him up off the waiver wire, a cigarette box should pop up on your screen with a warning label that informs you of the dangers of owning Reynolds.

BAD CALL = Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers – I predicted that a full-season in Chavez-Ravine would keep a few of Lilly’s fastball from getting hit over the fence. Sadly, Lilly is actually on pace to give up a career high number of home runs.

Round 12

GOOD CALL = Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays – His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but Hellickson has done a good job of pitching to contact in his first full season in the big leagues. A WHIP of 1.16 is very impressive for a rookie pitcher in the AL East.

BAD CALL = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – No Credentials put the possibility out there that Thornton would end up as a top-10 closer. The season was roughly 10 days old when Ozzie Guillen stripped him of closing duties.

   

5 Hitters to Trade For and Trade Away in Fantasy Baseball

The title of this article is pretty self-explanatory. I'm going to give you five hitters who have scuffled out of the gate that you should try to acquire via trade, and then five over achiever's you should try to sell high.

5 YOU SHOULD TRY TO GET

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins - He probably went no later than 4th in your league this year, but so far has only delivered a .215 batting average. This is a case of a guy who is way to talented to struggle for an entire season like this. Now that Florida has him hitting 1st or 2nd everyday as opposed to 3rd, expect a steady increase in the stolen base department.

2. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston Red Sox - His spot on this list would've looked a lot smarter if he hadn't of just gone 4-4 today with a homerun. My case for Crawford is similar to Hanley's (he's too good to be this bad all year), but Crawford does have added risk. He's admittedly been pressing at the plate since his arrival in Boston, and also appears to have struggled with the unseasonably cold New England weather. I wouldn't trade Jose Bautista for him or anything, but if you can flip a starting pitcher for him, by all means take the chance.

3. Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers - As I documented during my preseason fantasy baseball mockdraft, I have a man crush on Cruz. I've traded for him each of the past two years. He has prodiguous power, but always seems to find his way onto the disabled list with a hamstring or quad injury. He just returned Monday from another of his famed DL stints, and promptly mashed a home run in his first game back. Perhaps you can play the health risk angle with a fellow owner to nab Cruz at a discount price.

4. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees - This listing comes with some specific instructions, so please read carefully. At this point in his career, Jeter is not going to singlehandedly carry your fantasy team. However, if you're desperate for a shortstop, you could do worse than a guy who Joe Girardi will stubbornly plug in the 1 or 2 hole everyday. Even if Jeter finishes the year with a .255 batting average, he'll still score around 100 runs. See if you can trade a backup outfielder or a mid-level starting pitcher for him.

5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs - Baseball is known for producing statistical oddities, but none are stranger than what Aramis Ramirez has put together so far this season. A perrenial 30-homer guy for most of the '00s, Ramirez has only hit one home run all season, despite the fact that he's hitting .295. However, he has smacked 12 doubles so far, which puts him on pace for about 40. Expect a few of those doubles to morph into home runs the rest of the way, giving Ramirez a shot to finish the year close to 20.

5 YOU SHOULD SELL HIGH BEFORE SOMEONE ELSE READS THIS COLUMN

1. Matt Joyce, OF, Tampa Bay Rays - Joyce is a nice player, but you should not expect him to maintain batting average above .360. There's plenty of depth in the outfield, so see if you can sucker some owner into sending you some help in the infield.

2. Howie Kendrick, 1B-2B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - I've owned Kendrick a couple of times over the past five years. I'm going to tell you one thing he'll consistently do...pull a hamstring. He's missed the past five games with a hamstring injury, but apparently will avoid a trip to the DL. If he hits well for a week after he returns, try to ship him out before he pulls his groin again.

3. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - McCutchen is a talented dude, but doesn't have enough of a supporting cast (besides No Credentials favorite Neil Walker) to deliver his full potential value. I don't think I would move him in a keeper league, but if you are in a re-draft group, see what you can get for him.

4. David Ortiz, 1B, Boston Red Sox - I think Ortiz actually is legitimate this year (a better supporting cast has helped him more than anyone else on the Red Sox), but for those of you in a league that is heavy with Red Sox fans, test the waters to find out what you can get back. You probably didn't draft him as your starting first baseman, so you should have the flexibility to move him.

5. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs - This again applies to re-draft fantasy teams. Castro so far has delivered an elite batting average, but not much else to go with it (just one homer and only four stolen bases so far). Unless the rest of your squad is full of Adam Dunns, try to parlay his elite batting average into better counting stats.

Sunday Draft (2-13-11) 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft - Round 1

This week I'll use the Sunday draft as a springboard for my MLB fantasy mock draft I've been planning on doing for months. Every couple of days, I will post a round or two of a mock draft that would show how I would fill out 12 fantasy baseball teams. This fictional league would be a head-to-head league with standard 5X5 scoring. Each team will have 25 players on it. Without further ado, the first round of my 2011 MLB Fantasy Mock Draft (sponsored by the TI-83 Scientific Calculator).

  

1-1  = Albert Pujols, 1B, Cardinals – What make Albert extra scary this year? Two words…contract year.

1-2  = Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers – If he didn’t get hurt during the last two weeks of the 2010 season, he would’ve had numbers very similar to Pujols.

1-3  = Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees – The only reason I have him jacked up this high is the combination of the team he’s on plus the position he plays.

1-4  = Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies - One of these years, Tulowitzki is going to stay healthy and crack 40 home runs.

1-5  = Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins – I’m not as high on Ramirez as most fantasy experts due to his miscast batting lineup spot (Florida has hit him 3^rd when he should be batting leadoff and stealing 60 bases a year), and the Marlins aren’t exactly the ’27 Yankees. There’s probably no way he slips past the 3^rd pick in any draft you will participate in.

1-6  = Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Longoria is the best player at pretty weak position. Tampa has surrounded Longoria with some solid hitting, so expect Longoria to see a few more fastballs this season.

1-7  = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – Buster Olney wrote the other day that he wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzalez put up 48 homers and 146 RBIs this season. If he does that, than he’s the #2 pick in the 2012 draft. I personally wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him that high this season.

1-8  = Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – His first mostly healthy season produced MVP level numbers. Votto should be a monster again in the middle of a potent Reds’ lineup.

1-9  = Roy Halladay, SP, Phillies – There’s a point in the draft where after a certain number of hitters are off the board, you’re not comfortable with any of the options as your first pick. For me, that point is right here, so instead of feeling uneasy, go ahead and take the best pitcher in the game.

1-10 = Carl Crawford, OF-LF, Red Sox – Crawford produced top-5 fantasy seasons while hitting in Tampa Bay. It’s scary to think what he could do on a loaded Red Sox team (as long as they give him the green light to run). I wouldn’t fault anyone for considering him anywhere from pick 3 on (the only reason I have him so low is because there are so many outfielders).

1-11 = Ryan Braun, OF-LF, Brewers – This pick isn’t all that exciting, but the floor (.280-25-100) is solid enough that he’s a very safe option in the first round. If the Brewers are as good as I think they can be, he becomes a steal at 11.

1-12 = David Wright, 3B, Mets - Sure, the Mets are in financial chaos, and are probably looking at a .500 record or worse competing in the tough NL East. This will not affect Wright. He has a very motivated Jose Reyes hitting in front of him, and should have plenty of RBI chances.