Mid-Season Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Review, Part 1

            We’re at the halfway point of the fantasy baseball season (that also means that we are at the halfway point of real baseball, but sadly for MLB, fantasy baseball is much more interesting to me). Now is a good time to call out some of the good predictions, as well as the crappy ones, made by No Credentials during the pre-season. I’ll find two players from each round of my 25-round mock draft to discuss.

Round 1

GOOD CALL = Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox – I wrote back in late February that I would sign off on Gonzalez being taken 2^nd in any fantasy league. So far, he’s the 4^th ranked player in all of fantasy.

BAD CALL = Carl Crawford, LF, Red Sox – A little more research could’ve shown that Crawford would not fair well in extra cool weather (which this year in New England, lasted until late-May). Carl was finally starting to heat up before landing on the DL. Look for a big second half from him.

 

 

Round 2

GOOD CALL = Matt Kemp, CF, Dodgers – Lost in all the commotion of the Dodgers major financial woes (note to professional sports leagues: Don’t give franchises to people who have assets, but no cold hard cash) is the incredible season Kemp is having. I won’t take to much credit for predicting his success, but I did mention that he had the ability to produce top-5 production. Right now, he’s on pace for a 40-40 season.

BAD CALL = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Nationals – A long DL stint is mostly to blame for Zimmerman’s poor first half. He is capable of being a top-5 fantasy 3^rd basemen the rest of the way, so see if you can get him at a steep discount from a disgruntled owner in your league.

Round 3

GOOD CALL = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The league leader in strikeouts, Kershaw has officially arrived as a legitimate fantasy ace.

BAD CALL = Zack Greinke, SP, Brewers – A 5.63 ERA isn’t exactly what fantasy owners were looking from a player who was supposed to anchor a pitching staff.

 

 

Round 4

GOOD CALL = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – He’s cooled off a bit over the past few weeks, but you still can’t complain about a player with dual position eligibility that is on pace to hit 48 home runs.

BAD CALL = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez has been a complete train wreck so far. It looks more and more like his first half performance in 2010 was a fluke.

 

 

Round 5

GOOD CALL = David Price, SP, Rays – Overshadowed by fellow starter James Shields, Price has had a very solid first half. He’s currently ranked 38^th among all players.

BAD CALL = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His terrifying strikeout totals kept me from strongly endorsing Weeks in my mock draft, but so far he has posted a solid batting average along with 14 homers and seven steals.

 

 

Round 6

GOOD CALL = Jay Bruce, RF, Reds – Jay is currently on pace to smack 36 home runs, which gives him an outside shot to have 100 career home runs by the time he’s 24 years old. In retrospect, he should’ve gone in the 3^rd round in my keeper league.

BAD CALL = Mat Latos, SP, Padres – Latos has been a huge disappointment so far for No Credentials. Drafted as the second pitcher in one of my leagues, he’s been destroying my WHIP ever since an early season DL stint. The strikeouts are still there, so he is also a solid buy-low candidate (no one will buy him from me though. I’m in too deep).

Round 7

GOOD CALL = Shane Victorino, CF, Phillies - I predicted 15 homers, 40 steals, and over 100 runs scored for the Flyin’ Hawaiian this year. The steals aren’t quite there, but he’s on pace to hit the other two category goals.

BAD CALL = Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates – The worst pick of my mock so far. I’m embarrassed to say that I endorsed taking him in the 7^th round.

Round 8

GOOD CALL = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Deemed the favorite “under the radar fantasy starter of 2011” by No Credentials, Marcum has delivered as the best pitcher for the first place Brewers.

BAD CALL = Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Red Sox – I’m fairly certain that at some point I wrote that the Sox should trade Ellsbury (if you dig deep enough into the No Credentials archive you’ll find it). All he’s done in the first half is steal 25 bases and hit 9 home runs. Without him, Carl Crawford’s struggles would have killed the Red Sox.

 

 

Round 9

GOOD CALL = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – I wrote in early March that if Young kept his batting average over .250 he’d have a shot at a 30-30 season. During the first half, he’s batting .255 with 15 homers and 10 steals.

BAD CALL = Brett Gardner, LF, Yankees – Here’s my preseason write-up on Gardner.

Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58^th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112^th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5^th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9^th.

In related news, a damned fool wrote that Brett Gardner would provide the same production as Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

 

Round 10

GOOD CALL = Michael Bourn, CF, Astros – Bourn is on pace to swipe 70 bags this year. Even though he’s really only a 2-category guy (steals and runs), his dominance on the base paths is enough to have him ranked 24^th among all players in fantasy.

BAD CALL = Chone Figgins, 2B-3B, Mariners – Maybe it’s all the rain in Seattle, but for whatever reason, Figgins’ career has fallen over a cliff since he signed with them before the 2010 season. I finally cut him from my redraft league team three weeks ago.

 

 

Round 11

GOOD CALL = Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles – His .221 batting average has backed up my preseason plea for all fantasy owners to keep him off of their rosters. If you pick him up off the waiver wire, a cigarette box should pop up on your screen with a warning label that informs you of the dangers of owning Reynolds.

BAD CALL = Ted Lilly, SP, Dodgers – I predicted that a full-season in Chavez-Ravine would keep a few of Lilly’s fastball from getting hit over the fence. Sadly, Lilly is actually on pace to give up a career high number of home runs.

Round 12

GOOD CALL = Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Rays – His strikeout rate isn’t spectacular, but Hellickson has done a good job of pitching to contact in his first full season in the big leagues. A WHIP of 1.16 is very impressive for a rookie pitcher in the AL East.

BAD CALL = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – No Credentials put the possibility out there that Thornton would end up as a top-10 closer. The season was roughly 10 days old when Ozzie Guillen stripped him of closing duties.

   

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 8-9

            We’re starting to get to the point in the draft where most fantasy leagues are won. From this point forward, there are going to be players chosen that will finish the season ranked in the top 50. For my money, the 8^th round and on is much more important in fantasy baseball than the first seven.

8-85 = Chris Carpenter, SP, Cardinals – The hamstring injury he suffered yesterday is a little scary, but the Cardinals are confident that he will still be able to pitch on opening day. He supposedly had a down year in 2010, but still finished with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. If St. Louis struggles, look for Carpenter to get shipped to a contending team before the trade deadline.

8-86 = Ben Zobrist, 1B-2B-CF-RF, Rays – It might sound strange, but Ben Zobrist could win a few leagues this season. This is a guy that hit 27 home runs in 2009, but fell off the cliff last season with only 10 home runs and a .238 batting average. Zobrist drew over 90 walks each of the last two seasons, and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was insanely low during the second half of the season. An increase in batting average to even the .260 or .270 range should get his home run total closer to 20, and you’ll also get 20-25 steals. Throw in crazy position eligibility (he might even play enough games at shortstop to qualify there by seasons end) and you are looking at a very interesting buy-low candidate.

8-87 = Drew Stubbs, CF, Reds – Stubbs was one of two players last season that hit over 20 home runs and stole 30+ bases, along with perennial top-5 fantasy pick Hanley Ramirez. What drops Stubbs is his very poor contact rate. His strikeout rate was the 3^rd worst in the majors last season. There’s a good chance that Stubbs could lead your fantasy league in most times added and dropped during the season. 

8-88 = Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks – If Charlie Sheen has tiger blood, I think the Drew family has kitten blood. Neither Stephen nor J.D. has ever realized their potential. The only reason Drew is picked this high is because you’ll stomach 15 home runs and 15 steals from your shortstop. 

8-89 = Heath Bell, RP, Padres – Since taking over the closing duties for the Padres after Trevor Hoffman left, Bell has racked up 89 saves. The only scary aspect of this selection (and the reason he is down this low as opposed to being taken in the early 7^th round) is the potential for him to get traded during the season to a team that needs him as set-up man. Unless your league also counts holds, this event would greatly reduce his fantasy value. I’d suggest attempting to trade him in early June before a trade occurs.

8-90 = Pablo Sandoval, 1B-3B, Giants – Kung Fu Panda was just Fat Panda in 2010. His batting average dropped from .330 in 2009 to .268. Sandoval reportedly has shed 30 pounds during the off-season, and has been off to a hot start in spring training. In ESPN.com drafts, he’s being taken around the 111^th pick. I encourage everyone to grab him much earlier. Even if you use an 8^th round pick on him, you’re getting a guy that will potentially play like a 3^rd rounder.

8-91 = Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles – Amazingly, Roberts is being taken with the 148^th pick (on average) in ESPN.com leagues. Roberts 102 games last year due to back problems, but was still able to steal 12 bases in 59 games. This is a great spot to grab a 2B who could potentially score 110 runs and steal 40 bases. If he were an outfielder, he’s a 17^th round pick, but his position makes him worthy of an early round gamble.

8-92 = Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Red Sox – Papelbon is probably auditioning for a new team, as Daniel Bard is poised to take over as the Red Sox closer in the 2012 season. The added motivation of pitching for a new contract should help motivate Papelbon to improve on his 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, which were his worst numbers in those categories since becoming the closer in 2006.

8-93 = Colby Rasmus, CF, Cardinals – Rasmus improved his from .714 to .859 from 2009 to 2010. If Rasmus takes another step forward, we could be looking at a 30-homer, 15-steal breakout season from the 24-year old outfielder.

8-94 = Shaun Marcum, SP, Brewers – Marcum posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP despite pitching in the AL East. In fact, if you take out his 10 starts against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays, Marcum would’ve had a 2.74 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. What numbers can Marcum put up if he’s facing teams like the Astros, Pirates, and Cubs on a regular basis? Marcum is my favorite under the radar starter going into 2011.

8-95 = Jacoby Ellsbury, LF-CF, Red Sox – Ellsbury’s 2010 was destroyed by broken ribs that for some reason, took approximately 5 months to heal. If he is healthy, you can pencil him in for at least 50 stolen bases. The question for Ellsbury is where he will hit in the Red Sox lineup. If he hits first and succeeds, he should be able to push 110 runs scored. If he’s at the bottom of the order (which is where I would put him), he’ll still give you steals but he’ll be lucky to crack 80 runs scored. Based on this risk, his average draft position of 58 in ESPN leagues is way to high (you can thank members of Red Sox Nation for that).

8-96 = Casey McGehee, 3B, Brewers – A safe bet for 25 home runs and 105 RBIs hitting behind Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Not a lot of upside, but you know what you’re getting.

9-97 = Dan Haren, SP, Angels – Haren struggled while in Arizona, but after getting traded to the Angels rebounded to finish with his third consecutive season with more than 200 strikeouts. He’s going 63^rd in ESPN drafts so far so expect to pay a little higher price than the 97^th pick to get him.

            Team 1 Roster = Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ichiro, Hunter Pence, Brian Wilson, Casey McGehee, Dan Haren

9-98 = Chris Young, CF, Diamondbacks – His batting average will hurt, but as long as he keeps it over .250 he has a chance at a 30-30 season. He’s basically Drew Stubbs with a longer track record of success.

            Team 2 Roster = Miguel Cabrera, Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce, Roy Oswalt, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Young

9-99 = J.J. Putz, RP, Diamondbacks – Arizona will stink, but even bad baseball teams usually win at least 60 games. Putz is the first solid closer Arizona has had in years. Rather than take one of the top closers in the 5^th or 6^th round, grab Putz in the 9^th to anchor your pen. He’ll end up as a top-10 reliever in fantasy.

            Team 3 Roster = Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Price, Billy Butler, Shane Victorino, Shaun Marcum, J.J. Putz

9-100 = Max Scherzer, SP, Tigers – After a brief stint in the minors, Scherzer posted a 2.46 ERA along with more than a strikeout per inning in his final 23 starts. Health is a concern (but then again, isn’t it with every starter?), but Scherzer is a solid option as a #2 or #3 for your fantasy rotation.

            Team 4 Roster = Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin Soo Choo, Josh Johnson, Rickie Weeks, Kendry Morales, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Rasmus, Max Scherzer

9-101 = Brett Gardner, LF-CF, Yankees – Gardner is essentially the same player as Jacoby Ellsbury (a speed-demon with no power that is prone to prolonged slumps). As mentioned earlier, on average, Ellsbury is going 58^th in ESPN drafts. Gardner is going 112^th. You’d be a damned fool to draft Ellsbury in the 5^th round when you can snag Gardner in the 9^th.

            Team 5 Roster = Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Ian Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Justin Morneau, Jered Weaver, Mike Stanton, Jonathan Papelbon, Brett Gardner

9-102 = Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox – Buchholz will need to improve his strikeout totals (only 120 last season) to enter the discussion as a future ace. However, even is his ERA climbs into the high 3s, expect him to have a chance of pushing 20 wins thanks to the powerful offense that will be supporting him.

            Team 6 Roster = Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Derek Jeter, Joakim Soria, Alex Rios, Brian Roberts, Clay Buchholz

9-103 = Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers – Furcal is capable of playing like a top-20 player, but he’s also prone to long stings on the DL. Make sure you draft a second shortstop if you end up with Furcal as a starter. It would also be wise to move Furcal as soon as possible if he gets off to a hot start.

            Team 7 Roster = Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval, Rafael Furcal

9-104 = Corey Hart, RF, Brewers – Hart smacked 31 homers and drove in 102 runs for the Brew-Crew last season. However, he’s another player who’s strikeout rate makes him a candidate for a decline in 2010. Even if he falls off to .260 with just over 20 home runs, his spot in the top third of the Brewers lineup should assure him of fantasy relevance. It would help if his stolen base totals improved as well (he had 23 in both 2007 and 2008, but only seven last season).

            Team 8 Roster = Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Dan Uggla, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Pedro Alvarez, Heath Bell, Corey Hart

9-105 = Kelly Johnson, 2B, Diamondbacks – Johnson’s 26 home runs last season seemed a little fluky, but if you’re still looking for a 2^nd Basemen at this point in the draft you could do worse than a guy with 20-10 potential.

            Team 9 Roster = Roy Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Andrew McCutchen, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann, Mariano Rivera, Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson

9-106 = Francisco Liriano, SP, Twins – While certainly not at the level he was during his rookie year in 2006, Liriano was still able to strike out just over a batter per inning (201 Ks in 191.2 innings). Being able to start a career high 31 games last season is also an encouraging sign.

            Team 10 Roster = Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez, Alexei Ramirez, Martin Prado, Drew Stubbs, Francisco Liriano

9-107 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers – I’ll first start by saying Andrus is being taken around the 80^th pick, so more than likely he’ll be gone by the end of the 7^th round. Someone will take him at that point because of his stolen base potential. I’ll stay away due to his virtually non-existent power (his .301 slugging percentage was among the worst in baseball), and his inefficiency stealing bases (was only 32 for 47 on stolen base attempts). Furthermore, if he struggles, Texas has plenty of options to stick at the top of their lineup that would relegate Andrus to the bottom of the order. Keep in mind however that if you are in an AL-only league, he needs to come off your draft board much earlier due to the weakness of the shortstop position in the American League. 

            Team 11 Roster = Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Jon Lester, Buster Posey, Adam Dunn, Mat Latos, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Elvis Andrus

9-108 = Brandon Morrow, SP, Blue Jays – Morrow might as well rename himself Forrest Gump, because you never know what you are going to get when he takes the mound. In a May 10^th start at Fenway Park last season, Morrow was so bad he didn’t even make it through the 2^nd inning (that will happen when you walk 6 and give up 6 earned runs). On August 8^th against the first place Rays, Morrow threw arguably the best game of the season. He struck out 17 and didn’t give up a hit until the 9^th inning. If you draft him, be prepared for the wild swings.

            Team 12 Roster = David Wright, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Santana, Carlos Marmol, Paul Konerko, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Morrow