Half-Baked MLB Preview

            After watching parts of a dominating performance by Kyle Lohse (Kyle f***ing Lohse!), I feel pretty stupid about producing two pages worth of a Word document on a sport that almost puts me into a deep coma. Despite this questioning of my self-worth, here’s No Credentials predicted order of finish for each division in MLB.

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego Padres

If you were allowed to put the Giants pitching staff with the Rockies offense, you’d have a super team. Unfortunately, that’s not allowed, so we’re stuck with picking the most well rounded team in the division to win the NL West. Arizona has the most underrated starting rotation in the NL, and a deep bullpen to support it. A monster campaign from Justin Upton (think .290-35-115-110-25) puts Arizona into the 95-win zone.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

It doesn’t really matter if you put Texas or the Angels first or second in this division. With each team getting 36 chances to beat the living snot out of the Mariners and Athletics, both of these teams will be making the playoffs.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

          The toughest division for No Credentials to pick, we ended up going with the club that lost the least during the off-season. I have a hard time believing it will be business as usual in St. Louis without Albert Pujols, and Milwaukee faces a similar issue without Prince Fielder.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox

I tried to talk myself into picking Cleveland to win the division, but can’t do it. Even if Detroit’s infield is leakier than the Titanic, the Tigers should win the division by 10 games or more.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Washington Nationals
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

         This is the most competitive division in MLB. You could make a strong case for any of the top four clubs to win the division. Philadelphia’s three-headed monster at the top of their rotation still gives them the edge in No Credentials book, but their aging offense is becoming more of an Achilles heal.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

          New York is getting long in the tooth (other than Robinson Cano), and doesn’t have a reliable starter other than C.C. Sabathia. Boston will need to get a borderline historically dominant season from their offense (a possibility. If Boston makes the playoffs, it will be because Adrian Gonzalez is the AL MVP) to overcome the issues they will have with their bullpen (TANGENT ALERT: I hate the placement of Daniel Bard in the starting rotation. They essentially traded one of the best setup men of the past two seasons who has the stuff to close games for a guy who had an ERA over 6.00 the last time he was a regular starter, and that was in Single-A ball in 2007). Tampa Bay has the most pitching depth (minors included) of any club in baseball. Evan Longoria is due for a hammer-of-God season (he was plagued last season by a insanely unlucky BABIP), and the emergence of Desmond Jennings should fill in what they lost when Carl Crawford left for Boston (remember folks, Carl Crawford used to be good once upon a time). This is why No Credentials is cursing the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays by picking them to win the AL East.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (5/20-5/22)

10. The World Didn’t End

            As most of you should know by now, we are still here. Whatever you do, don’t trust an 89-year-old man named Harold.

9. Carl Edwards Wins Sprint Cup All-Star Race

            Edwards was easily the class of the field, which made this year’s All-Star Race less exciting than usual. Nevertheless, let me make for why the NASCAR All-Star Race is the best all-star event in sports.

            It’s pretty simple really…the winner gets $1 million. NASCAR doesn’t play around with the whole “celebration of the sport” gimmick. It’s all about the cash. Would you like to see an NBA All-Star Game where players actually play a little defense? Throw up a $1 million reward to be divided up among the winning team, and you would have yourself the most hotly contested basketball game in the history of man. Baseball should take a page out of the NASCAR book too. You will never convince me that an outfielder from the Pirates would give a crap whether or not the National League is going to win home-field advantage or not.

            Let’s watch a couple of videos for comparison’s sake. Here is the final play of the 2011 Pro Bowl.

            Now watch the final lap of the 1992 Winston as Dale Earnhardt, Kyle Petty, and Davey Allison duel for the win.

            Allison was knocked unconscious in this crash and ended up getting hauled off to the hospital. The car was hauled to victory lane on a flatbed. I rest my case.

8. Former Teammates Roll Lance Armstrong Under the Bus

            I’m not sure what Lance did to piss people off, but he’s getting attacked from all sides. My question for you is, does it matter if he took steroids or not?

            Regardless of whether or not Armstrong was doping, he still managed to win seven straight Tour De France races after almost dying from cancer. More important to me, the majority of cyclists in the field were also doping. Ultimately, cycling has been proven to be a dirty sport in general. That doesn’t make Lance Armstrong any worse than anyone else.

7. Jose Bautista Hits Two More Homers Saturday

            Amazingly, in the post-steroids era, Jose Bautista finds himself on a 72 homer pace through 40 games. After the #8 item on this list, is it wrong for me to suggest that we ask Bautista to pee in a cup everyday for the rest of the year?

6. Canucks Take 3-1 Lead Over San Jose

            After a spirited effort in Game 3, the Canucks blew San Jose out of the water after three straight power play goals in the 2^nd period of Game 4. Giving the Sedin twins a man-advantage is not a recipe for success.

5. Animal Kingdom Fails to Win 2^nd Leg of Triple Crown

            And by doing so, he guarantees that No Credentials will not mention horse racing until April of 2012.

4. Chicago Cubs Play at Fenway Park For First Time Since 1918

            Now that the Cubs have played at Fenway, I vote for killing inter-league baseball for good. Until both league’s adopt the same stance on whether to have a DH or not, it makes no sense for a meeting between the AL and NL before the World Series.

3. Down 3-0, Lightning Storm Back Against Bruins to Even Series

            Boston needs to show some serious mental fortitude after getting a little too content and blowing Game 4. Tampa Bay has too much firepower to step off the accelerator.

2. Mavericks Take Game 3 in Oklahoma City

            For a while last night I thought was watching Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. After two offensive showcases, defense finally showed up. The Thunder did a great job on Dirk Nowitzki until the 4^th quarter. Oklahoma City needs to bring the same defensive intensity for the rest of the series. They won’t shoot 1 for 17 from three-point range again. I like the Thunder to win Game 4.

1. Heat Defend Home Court, Take 2-1 Series Lead Over Chicago

            Chris Bosh showed up in a big way with 34 points in this game. Chicago needs to reestablish their dominance in the paint to get back into the series.

NL Central Preview

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

A-Level = CF Andrew McCutchen

B-Level = None

C-Level = 2B Neil Walker, 3B Pedro Alvarez, LF Jose Tabata, CL Joel Hanrahan, RP Evan Meek

Ceiling = 65 Wins

Floor = 50 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Pittsburgh has a solid young group of offensive players that could deliver some wins. Neil Walker and Jose Tabata made valuable contributions to the club after being called up from the minors. Pedro Alvarez has prodigious power potential. He projects to be a 40 home run guy that can eventually anchor the lineup. Andrew McCutchen is the most complete player in their lineup that has the potential to hit 25 home runs and swipe 40 bases.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – Other than James McDonald, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff is devoid of any talent that has upside. Pittsburgh has some arms down in the minors, but it will be another couple of seasons before there young pitching talent meets up with the young bats that are already in the majors.

Floor or Ceiling? – Let’s put it this way…if you own a national league hitter on your fantasy team, and he is playing the Pirates, make sure you get him in your lineup. Pittsburgh’s lack of pitching will doom them to a 52-107 record.

5. Houston Astros

A-Level = None

B-Level = LF Carlos Lee, CF Michael Bourn, RF Hunter Pence, SP Wandy Rodriguez, SP Brett Myers

C-Level = 1B Brett Wallace, SP J.A. Happ, SP Bud Norris, CL Brandon Lyon, RP Wilton Lopez

Ceiling = 85 Wins

Floor = 60 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers were quietly one of the best pitching duos during the second half of the 2010 season. If they can get solid production out of either J.A. Happ or Bud Norris, they will have three pitchers that can face off against the top clubs in the NL Central. For Houston’s offense to be productive, they will either need a comeback season from Carlos Lee or a breakout season from Brett Wallace.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – Not to keep this to simple, but if none of the things that can get them to their ceiling, they will be at the floor. There’s really no middle ground with this team.

Floor or Ceiling? – I like some of the pitchers, but like last year, this club will struggle to score runs. 67-95 is where I see Houston finishing.

4. Chicago Cubs

A-Level = CL Carlos Marmol

B-Level = 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Marlon Byrd, SP Ryan Dempster, SP Matt Garza

C-Level = C Geovany Soto, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Starlin Castro, RF Tyler Colvin, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Kerry Wood

Ceiling = 85 Wins

Floor = 65 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – I don’t think there is another team in baseball that needs as many guys to have bounce-back seasons. Aramis Ramirez needs to have a strong year after an injury plagued 2010. Alfonso Soriano has been mediocre the past couple of seasons. Free agent acquisition Carlos Pena had a batting average under .200 last season. Carlos Zambrano was so bad that he was moved into the bullpen for part of the season. Chicago needs at least three of these guys to have strong seasons to have a chance at getting over .500.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – If the pitching tanks, it could be a very long summer in Wrigleyville. This team gave up an awful lot for Matt Garza. While a decent pitcher, he’s never demonstrated that he can carry a rotation. Amazingly, Chicago gave up just as much (if not more) than Milwaukee gave up for Zack Greinke. Don’t underestimate the anticipation of Albert Pujols impending free agency on this team. If Chicago struggles, it will be all Pujols, all the time in Chicago sports-talk radio conversation. That topic will weigh heavily on the players who have to answer questions about Albert everyday in the clubhouse.

Floor or Ceiling? – Chicago will be better than last year, but won’t be good enough to kill the Pujols anticipation. Look for 76-86 and long-drawn out speculation about Albert Pujols that will make you long for the days of Carmelo Anthony wanting to get traded to the Knicks.   

3. St. Louis Cardinals

A-Level = 1B Albert Pujols, LF Matt Holliday, SP Chris Carpenter

B-Level = CF Colby Rasmus, SP Jaime Garcia, CL Ryan Franklin

C-Level = SS Ryan Theriot, 3B David Freese, RF Lance Berkman, SP Jake Westbrook, SP Kyle Lohse, RP Jason Motte

Ceiling = 90 Wins

Floor = 75 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Pujols and Holliday are as good a 1-2 punch as there is in baseball. If Colby Rasmus can make a leap, St. Louis could score a ton of runs this season. 3B David Freese is also a wildcard. Someone on this pitching staff needs to step up and replace the absence of Adam Wainwright. Jaime Garcia seems to be the most likely candidate.

How They Fall to the Floor – If there is no one that fills Wainwright’s shoes, pitching will be a major issue. This team has thrived with Carpenter and Wainwright logging at least seven innings a start. With just one ace, this bullpen could get burnt out early in the season. I don’t think Pujols contract situation will impact this veteran group much, but that will be the elephant in the room with this team all year long.

Ceiling or Floor? – Unless Pujols bats .400 and smashes 55 home runs, I don’t think the pitching is good enough. I’ll predict an 82-80 finish.

2. Cincinnati Reds

A-Level = 1B Joey Votto, 2B Brandon Phillips

B-Level = 3B Scott Rolen, CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Bronson Arroyo, SP Johnny Cueto, RP Aroldis Chapman

C-Level = LF Johnny Gomes, SP Homer Bailey, CL Francisco Cordero

Ceiling = 95 Wins

Floor = 80 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Cincinnati doesn’t necessarily wow you with a ton of A-level talent, but they have as much depth as any team in baseball. Joey Votto is poised to reach 40+ homers for the first time in his career. Jay Bruce is also due for a major breakout. The starting staff would be greatly enhanced if Homer Bailey finally begins to live up to his potential. The Reds still have plenty of depth in their farm system, and should be able to make a trade to fill a hole before the trade deadline.

How They Fall to the Floor – A pitching staff implosion is the only thing that will keep the Reds mired around .500.

Ceiling or Floor? – Cincinnati’s offense will muscle this team very close to it’s ceiling. This could be high, but I see a 93-69 season for Cincinnati. They will be players for the division and the wildcard all year long.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

A-Level = 1B Prince Fielder, LF Ryan Braun, SP Zack Greinke

B-Level = 2B Rickie Weeks, 3B Casey McGehee, RF Corey Hart, SP Yovani Gallardo, SP Shaun Marcum, CL John Axford

C-Level = SP Randy Wolf, RP Takashi Saito

Ceiling = 100 Wins

Floor = 85 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Trading for Zach Greinke and signing Shaun Marcum was two of the shrewdest moves in the off-season. Milwaukee has built the deepest rotation in the division. If Randy Wolf bounces back from a disappointing 2010, this team can push 100 wins.

How They Fall to the Floor – Similar to San Francisco, pitching is not the concern. Milwaukee’s offense is filled with a lot of guys that can hit the ball out of the park, but not a lot of guys who consistently get on base. Without a spark at the top of the lineup, this is a team that could be prone to prolonged slumps.

Ceiling or Floor? – Call me a fool, but I love the Brewers this year. Prince Fielder playing for a new contract should carry the offense. I’m predicting a 96-66 season, as well as a puncher’s chance at knocking off Philadelphia in the playoffs.