Showing posts with label Cincinnati Reds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cincinnati Reds. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Overcooked MLB Preview

            Some of you asked if I was going to write about real baseball this year, and I’m proud to say that I did. Unfortunately, I forgot to post this Sunday afternoon, so you’re getting it two days later than it was originally intended to be released. Based on my March Madness performance, it’s probably for the better, as I wouldn’t want anyone making bets on any advice I have to offer at the moment. Without further ado, we run through each division, with some playoff predictions at the end.

 


NL West


5. Colorado Rockies
            The pitching is abysmal, and we predict by June that whispers of Troy Tulowitzki ending up in pinstripes become shouts.

4. San Diego Padres
            Almost the exact opposite of Colorado, San Diego has the proud distinction of providing the most inept offense in the National League. A Chase Headley bounce-back campaign is their only hope.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks
            If they were willing to pay the price for David Price, we’d consider bumping this team up to the top spot in the NL West. Without him, their rotation is a bit of a mess until Archie Bradley reaches the Major Leagues.

2. San Francisco Giants
            The 2012 World Series champs had a down 2013 for a variety of reasons, but if half of those issues correct themselves, they should be looking at a Wild Card spot.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
            They have the best starting pitcher (Clayton Kershaw), arguably the best shortstop (Hanley Ramirez), and MLB’s best chance of Manny Ramirez 2.0 (Yaisel Puig). Not to mention that they are owned by crazy people who will do whatever it takes at the trade deadline to improve the team. There’s always a chance of an October flameout, but in the regular season the Dodgers are the best bet to rack up the most wins in MLB.

AL West


5. Houston Astros
            Are the Astros the Philadelphia 76ers of MLB, or vice versa? Regardless, some of Houston’s top prospects will be hitting the bigs soon. There’s a chance they won’t be horrendous in 2016.

4. Oakland Athletics
            Oakland always squeezes more production out of it’s players than any other team, but season ending injuries to a couple prominent members of their starting rotation will set them back.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
            I think Pujols comes back to near All-Star form, and Mike Trout is ridiculous, but until Los Angeles corrects their pitching issues, they won’t hang with Texas.

2. Seattle Mariners
            Either we’re over eager about Seattle because of their abundance of young starting pitching behind Felix Hernandez, or because Robinson Cano has been one of the team captains of my No Credentials Fantasy Baseball team for three years. Regardless, there’s a chance that Cano stabilizes an offense full of talented players who haven’t delivered yet.

1. Texas Rangers
            We’re bummed out about Jurickson Profar missing the first three months of the year, but there’s still a ridiculous amount of depth offensively. Prince Fielder will return to previous form playing his home games in Arlington, and Adrian Beltre is arguably the most under appreciated great player in the game. They’ll need to acquire another starting pitcher before the deadline to be a true threat in the playoffs, but there’s enough here for them to win the AL West.

NL Central


5. Chicago Cubs
            We’re about a year away from seeing the benefits of Theo Epstein’s rebuild, but at least Chicago should have the most exciting mid-season call-up in the form of Javier Baez. 

4. Milwaukee Brewers
            Milwaukee could win anywhere between 65 and 95 games and I wouldn’t be completely surprised. As we’ve written before, Ryan Braun is a complete asshole who won’t care about getting booed everywhere he goes. He should return to near MVP-level form. It’s the question marks in the starting pitching staff (in particular, presumed ace Yovani Gallardo, who imploded last year) that make us lukewarm on them surpassing any of the other three playoff teams in their division from a year ago.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates
            The Pirates were a blast last year, even getting contributions from a pitcher who grew up right in No Credentials home turf. It would’ve been great to see them go all-in and acquire another power bat, but it appears they are just hoping for another step forward from Pedro Alvarez. They’ll still be competitive, but we see them just missing the Wildcard game.

2. St. Louis Cardinals
            Are the San Antonio Spurs the St. Louis Cardinals of the NBA, or vice versa? They’re incredible pitching depth will have them in the hunt as always come October.

1. Cincinnati Reds
            Forgetting his forgettable 0-4, four strikeouts performance on opening day, we think Billy Hamilton is the key to the Reds overtaking St. Louis in the NL Central. His transformational speed is enough of a difference maker to make an already potent Reds lineup all the more lethal.

AL Central

5. Minnesota Twins
            Hard not to think that Joe Mauer’s move away from catcher is about three or four years too late.

4. Chicago White Sox
            There are not a lot of interesting players here, but at least Jose Abreu should be fun to watch.

3. Cleveland Indians
            Last year’s most surprising AL playoff participant, Cleveland likely needs Carlos Santana to have a career year in order to put them over the hump.

2. Kansas City Royals
            For the first time in a while Kansas City actually has some depth in their starting rotation. Mike Moustakas fulfilling his post-hype sleeper status alongside former top prospect Eric Hosmer is needed for the Royals to have any chance of knocking off Detroit.

1. Detroit Tigers
            They have the best pure power hitter in baseball and the deepest starting rotation in the American League. Throw in some better clubhouse chemistry now that Prince Fielder is in Texas, and you have yourself the favorites to represent the American League in the World Series.

NL East


5. Miami Marlins
            At what point do the Marlins pull the trigger on a Giancarlo Stanton trade? He’s the best tool they have to completely reload their farm system.

4. New York Mets

            Matt Harvey’s injury really is a bummer. New York might’ve actually had a chance to at least be in shouting distance of a wildcard spot if their young ace was healthy.

3. Atlanta Braves
            No team was ravaged more by injuries during spring training than Atlanta. They are one of the few teams that have the depth to deal with losing 40% of their starting rotation (that’s a fancy way of saying they lost two starting pitchers), but we think that puts them a step behind in the NL East.

2. Philadelphia Phillies
            Remember the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns, who made a semi-improbable run to the Western Conference Finals a few seasons after it looked like the Nash Era would never contend for a NBA title again? That’s the kind of year I’m predicting for Philly.

1. Washington Nationals
            A full year of solid health for Bryce Harper (who was fortunate not to get a concussion after getting kicked in the head on opening day) is what we are predicting, as well as a serious run at the NL MVP award. If the offense improves their scoring output by one run per game over last year, their pitching will take care of the rest.

AL East


5. New York Yankees
            The infield is atrocious, there are no sure things in the starting rotation (Sabathia is washed up, Kuroda is a nerd stats regression candidate, and while we like Tanaka, we aren’t ready to bet the farm on him), and even more frightening, they don’t have THE HAMMER OF GOD anymore. Throw in the fact that they will be lucky to get 240 combined games out of Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, and this has all the makings of a season similar to what the Red Sox endured in 2012.At least for their sake, Bobby Valentine isn’t the manager.

4. Baltimore Orioles
            For my money, no team whiffed more in the off-season than the Baltimore Orioles. The offense is dynamite (and the Nelson Cruz signing at least paid dividends on opening day), but if there was one team that needed to through an obscure amount of cash at Tanaka, it was Baltimore. Ubaldo Jimenez is not enough for the Orioles to get into playoff contention.

3. Boston Red Sox
            Coming off a year where just about everything went right, it would make sense that a market correction will occur. We are hopeful that Grady Sizemore (one of the franchise players on one of my all-time favorite fantasy baseball teams I owned in 2008) makes a serious run at Comeback Player of the Year.

2. Toronto Blue Jays
            Think of this prediction as the opposite of what I just said about Boston. Virtually everything went wrong for Toronto last year, and while they didn’t get off to a great start against Tampa Bay, we still think the Blue Jays have the manpower to at least finish second in the AL East.

1. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
            On paper, this is the best (Devil) Rays team of the Joe Maddon era. There’s so much pitching depth throughout the organization, they could trade David Price and still not miss a beat. Wil Myers will form a dynamic duo with Evan Longoria in his sophomore campaign, giving the offense a much-needed boost. Barring a significant injury to Longoria (which could happen), this is the team to beat in the AL East.

(Probably Terrible) Playoff Predictions

NL West = Dodgers
NL Central = Reds
NL East = Nationals
NL Wildcard 1 = Cardinals
NL Wildcard 2 = Giants

AL Central = Tigers
AL East = (Devil) Rays
AL West = Rangers
AL Wildcard 1 = Mariners
AL Wildcard 2 = Royals

NLCS = Reds over Cardinals
ALCS = Tigers over Rays

World Series = Reds over Tigers

 

 

 

Thursday, March 3, 2011

NL Central Preview

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
A-Level = CF Andrew McCutchen
B-Level = None
C-Level = 2B Neil Walker, 3B Pedro Alvarez, LF Jose Tabata, CL Joel Hanrahan, RP Evan Meek
Ceiling = 65 Wins
Floor = 50 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Pittsburgh has a solid young group of offensive players that could deliver some wins. Neil Walker and Jose Tabata made valuable contributions to the club after being called up from the minors. Pedro Alvarez has prodigious power potential. He projects to be a 40 home run guy that can eventually anchor the lineup. Andrew McCutchen is the most complete player in their lineup that has the potential to hit 25 home runs and swipe 40 bases.
How They Can Fall to the Floor – Other than James McDonald, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff is devoid of any talent that has upside. Pittsburgh has some arms down in the minors, but it will be another couple of seasons before there young pitching talent meets up with the young bats that are already in the majors.

Floor or Ceiling? – Let’s put it this way…if you own a national league hitter on your fantasy team, and he is playing the Pirates, make sure you get him in your lineup. Pittsburgh’s lack of pitching will doom them to a 52-107 record.


5. Houston Astros
A-Level = None
B-Level = LF Carlos Lee, CF Michael Bourn, RF Hunter Pence, SP Wandy Rodriguez, SP Brett Myers
C-Level = 1B Brett Wallace, SP J.A. Happ, SP Bud Norris, CL Brandon Lyon, RP Wilton Lopez
Ceiling = 85 Wins
Floor = 60 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers were quietly one of the best pitching duos during the second half of the 2010 season. If they can get solid production out of either J.A. Happ or Bud Norris, they will have three pitchers that can face off against the top clubs in the NL Central. For Houston’s offense to be productive, they will either need a comeback season from Carlos Lee or a breakout season from Brett Wallace.
How They Can Fall to the Floor – Not to keep this to simple, but if none of the things that can get them to their ceiling, they will be at the floor. There’s really no middle ground with this team.

Floor or Ceiling? – I like some of the pitchers, but like last year, this club will struggle to score runs. 67-95 is where I see Houston finishing.


4. Chicago Cubs
A-Level = CL Carlos Marmol
B-Level = 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Marlon Byrd, SP Ryan Dempster, SP Matt Garza
C-Level = C Geovany Soto, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Starlin Castro, RF Tyler Colvin, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Kerry Wood
Ceiling = 85 Wins
Floor = 65 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – I don’t think there is another team in baseball that needs as many guys to have bounce-back seasons. Aramis Ramirez needs to have a strong year after an injury plagued 2010. Alfonso Soriano has been mediocre the past couple of seasons. Free agent acquisition Carlos Pena had a batting average under .200 last season. Carlos Zambrano was so bad that he was moved into the bullpen for part of the season. Chicago needs at least three of these guys to have strong seasons to have a chance at getting over .500.
How They Can Fall to the Floor – If the pitching tanks, it could be a very long summer in Wrigleyville. This team gave up an awful lot for Matt Garza. While a decent pitcher, he’s never demonstrated that he can carry a rotation. Amazingly, Chicago gave up just as much (if not more) than Milwaukee gave up for Zack Greinke. Don’t underestimate the anticipation of Albert Pujols impending free agency on this team. If Chicago struggles, it will be all Pujols, all the time in Chicago sports-talk radio conversation. That topic will weigh heavily on the players who have to answer questions about Albert everyday in the clubhouse.
Floor or Ceiling? – Chicago will be better than last year, but won’t be good enough to kill the Pujols anticipation. Look for 76-86 and long-drawn out speculation about Albert Pujols that will make you long for the days of Carmelo Anthony wanting to get traded to the Knicks.   

3. St. Louis Cardinals
A-Level = 1B Albert Pujols, LF Matt Holliday, SP Chris Carpenter
B-Level = CF Colby Rasmus, SP Jaime Garcia, CL Ryan Franklin
C-Level = SS Ryan Theriot, 3B David Freese, RF Lance Berkman, SP Jake Westbrook, SP Kyle Lohse, RP Jason Motte
Ceiling = 90 Wins
Floor = 75 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Pujols and Holliday are as good a 1-2 punch as there is in baseball. If Colby Rasmus can make a leap, St. Louis could score a ton of runs this season. 3B David Freese is also a wildcard. Someone on this pitching staff needs to step up and replace the absence of Adam Wainwright. Jaime Garcia seems to be the most likely candidate.
How They Fall to the Floor – If there is no one that fills Wainwright’s shoes, pitching will be a major issue. This team has thrived with Carpenter and Wainwright logging at least seven innings a start. With just one ace, this bullpen could get burnt out early in the season. I don’t think Pujols contract situation will impact this veteran group much, but that will be the elephant in the room with this team all year long.
Ceiling or Floor? – Unless Pujols bats .400 and smashes 55 home runs, I don’t think the pitching is good enough. I’ll predict an 82-80 finish.

2. Cincinnati Reds
A-Level = 1B Joey Votto, 2B Brandon Phillips
B-Level = 3B Scott Rolen, CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Bronson Arroyo, SP Johnny Cueto, RP Aroldis Chapman
C-Level = LF Johnny Gomes, SP Homer Bailey, CL Francisco Cordero
Ceiling = 95 Wins
Floor = 80 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Cincinnati doesn’t necessarily wow you with a ton of A-level talent, but they have as much depth as any team in baseball. Joey Votto is poised to reach 40+ homers for the first time in his career. Jay Bruce is also due for a major breakout. The starting staff would be greatly enhanced if Homer Bailey finally begins to live up to his potential. The Reds still have plenty of depth in their farm system, and should be able to make a trade to fill a hole before the trade deadline.

How They Fall to the Floor – A pitching staff implosion is the only thing that will keep the Reds mired around .500.
Ceiling or Floor? – Cincinnati’s offense will muscle this team very close to it’s ceiling. This could be high, but I see a 93-69 season for Cincinnati. They will be players for the division and the wildcard all year long.

1. Milwaukee Brewers
A-Level = 1B Prince Fielder, LF Ryan Braun, SP Zack Greinke
B-Level = 2B Rickie Weeks, 3B Casey McGehee, RF Corey Hart, SP Yovani Gallardo, SP Shaun Marcum, CL John Axford
C-Level = SP Randy Wolf, RP Takashi Saito
Ceiling = 100 Wins
Floor = 85 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Trading for Zach Greinke and signing Shaun Marcum was two of the shrewdest moves in the off-season. Milwaukee has built the deepest rotation in the division. If Randy Wolf bounces back from a disappointing 2010, this team can push 100 wins.
How They Fall to the Floor – Similar to San Francisco, pitching is not the concern. Milwaukee’s offense is filled with a lot of guys that can hit the ball out of the park, but not a lot of guys who consistently get on base. Without a spark at the top of the lineup, this is a team that could be prone to prolonged slumps.
Ceiling or Floor? – Call me a fool, but I love the Brewers this year. Prince Fielder playing for a new contract should carry the offense. I’m predicting a 96-66 season, as well as a puncher’s chance at knocking off Philadelphia in the playoffs.