Half-Baked MLB Preview

            After watching parts of a dominating performance by Kyle Lohse (Kyle f***ing Lohse!), I feel pretty stupid about producing two pages worth of a Word document on a sport that almost puts me into a deep coma. Despite this questioning of my self-worth, here’s No Credentials predicted order of finish for each division in MLB.

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego Padres

If you were allowed to put the Giants pitching staff with the Rockies offense, you’d have a super team. Unfortunately, that’s not allowed, so we’re stuck with picking the most well rounded team in the division to win the NL West. Arizona has the most underrated starting rotation in the NL, and a deep bullpen to support it. A monster campaign from Justin Upton (think .290-35-115-110-25) puts Arizona into the 95-win zone.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

It doesn’t really matter if you put Texas or the Angels first or second in this division. With each team getting 36 chances to beat the living snot out of the Mariners and Athletics, both of these teams will be making the playoffs.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Houston Astros

          The toughest division for No Credentials to pick, we ended up going with the club that lost the least during the off-season. I have a hard time believing it will be business as usual in St. Louis without Albert Pujols, and Milwaukee faces a similar issue without Prince Fielder.

AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Chicago White Sox

I tried to talk myself into picking Cleveland to win the division, but can’t do it. Even if Detroit’s infield is leakier than the Titanic, the Tigers should win the division by 10 games or more.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Washington Nationals
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Miami Marlins
5. New York Mets

         This is the most competitive division in MLB. You could make a strong case for any of the top four clubs to win the division. Philadelphia’s three-headed monster at the top of their rotation still gives them the edge in No Credentials book, but their aging offense is becoming more of an Achilles heal.

AL East

1. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
2. New York Yankees
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

          New York is getting long in the tooth (other than Robinson Cano), and doesn’t have a reliable starter other than C.C. Sabathia. Boston will need to get a borderline historically dominant season from their offense (a possibility. If Boston makes the playoffs, it will be because Adrian Gonzalez is the AL MVP) to overcome the issues they will have with their bullpen (TANGENT ALERT: I hate the placement of Daniel Bard in the starting rotation. They essentially traded one of the best setup men of the past two seasons who has the stuff to close games for a guy who had an ERA over 6.00 the last time he was a regular starter, and that was in Single-A ball in 2007). Tampa Bay has the most pitching depth (minors included) of any club in baseball. Evan Longoria is due for a hammer-of-God season (he was plagued last season by a insanely unlucky BABIP), and the emergence of Desmond Jennings should fill in what they lost when Carl Crawford left for Boston (remember folks, Carl Crawford used to be good once upon a time). This is why No Credentials is cursing the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays by picking them to win the AL East.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (4/1-4/3)

10. Charlie Sheen Bombs in Detroit

            I’m as big a Charlie fan as there is, but when you start your set by saying the city you are performing in is a great place to talk about crack cocaine, you’re digging a bit of a hole for yourself.

9. Nuggets Defeat Lakers in Los Angeles

            Amazingly, Denver is now 15-4 since making the Carmelo trade after their stunning win on the Lakers’ home-court. Head Coach George Karl is making a late push to be the Coach of the Year.

8. Phillies Score Three in the 9^th, Steal Opening Day Win From Astros

            I didn’t watch this live, but did read several hundred angry Tweets from people who have Brandon Lyon on their fantasy team. Good times.

7. My Fiancée Advances to Championship Game in My Fantasy Basketball League

            What is even scarier about this scenario is she is facing me in the championship round.

6. India Wins Cricket World Cup

            Other than the fact that the game is named after an insect, I know nothing about cricket. Apparently though, this tournament was a huge deal to a billion people in India, so that’s pretty cool.

5. Detroit Pistons Retire Dennis Rodman’s Jersey

            Most of you probably remember Rodman as the ace rebounder for the second Bulls three-peat team, but before then he was a member of the Bad Boy Pistons. I may be in the minority here, but I have not gotten nearly enough Dennis Rodman this past decade. For cheap laughs, check out some classic Dennis Rodman moments listed below this paragraph.

Rodman kicks a cameraman in the crotch (you also get to see a very young Kevin Garnett in this clip)

Rodman and Karl Malone trip over each other during Game 4 of NBA Finals

Rodman clobbers Shaq, then is pulled out of scuffle by Jordan and Pippen (watch Pippen laughing when they hit the floor)

Rodman head butts a referee (check out Phil Jackson chuckling at the end of this clip)

Rodman gets into a fight with Alonzo Mourning

Here’s a slide show of Rodman’s many looks (includes his appearances in a wedding dress)

(EDITORS NOTE: I spent about an hour and a half looking at old Rodman clips when looking for links. He couldn’t shoot to save his life, and he may have been insane, but you can’t argue about how much The Worm loved the game)

4. Harvick Passes Dale Jr. to Win at Martinsville

            This race took an eternity to finish (mostly due to Martin Truex making a bold attempt to knock the turn three wall down. Fast forward to around the 1:10 mark of this video to see his crash with Kasey Kahne), but for those who caught the finish it was worth it. While Dale Earnhardt Jr. winning would’ve been the best result for NASCAR, him being in contention to win should be enough to boost fan interest going forward. Don’t be surprised if Junior pulls into victory lane after one of the next three races (Texas, Talladega, Richmond). Those are all tracks he has won at before.

3. Butler Makes 2^nd Straight National Championship Game

            Whether Butler defeats Connecticut tonight or not, the fact that a mid-major made the championship game as a 5^th seed and then an 8^th seed is remarkable.

2. Notre Dame Eliminates Lady Huskies

            With this loss, the citizens of Connecticut are spared of Geno Auriemma’s ego growing even larger than it already was. For greater insight into the Connecticut sports culture, check out a podcast that Bill Simmons did with his friend JackO (click on the podcast called New England Sports, which is currently the second most recent podcast on the page). 

1. Connecticut Survives Against Kentucky

            The Huskies looked like they were going to run away with it, but at least Kentucky made a game of it in the second half.

            Sorry to keep the #1 and #3 posts extra short this week. Look for an extended analysis of the National Championship Game, as well as the state of college basketball, to drop Tuesday or Wednesday.

NL East Preview

5. Washington Nationals

A-Level = 3B Ryan Zimmerman

B-Level = RF Jayson Werth, CL Drew Storen

C-Level = C Ivan Rodriguez, 1B Adam LaRoche, SS Ian Desmond, CF Nyjer Morgan, SP Jordan Zimmerman, RP Tyler Clippard

Ceiling = 65 Wins

Floor = 50 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling - Stephen Strasburg being out for the year obviously puts a damper on the mood in Washington, but don’t sleep on young starter Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is returning this season after losing a year to Tommy John surgery. So far he’s been lights out in spring training with a fastball that touches 95 and a nasty slider. If Zimmerman pitches to his potential, Washington will at least have one reliable starter in their rotation.

How They Fall to the Floor - If Werth fails to live up to the mammoth contract he signed, it will be another year of no support for Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is a very good hitter whose value has never been fully appreciated, but he desperately needs a wingman.

Floor or Ceiling? – Washington has some young pieces, and a very bright future when Strasburg returns in 2012, but look for one more 100-loss season. I’ll bank on 57-105.

4. New York Mets

A-Level = 3B David Wright, SS Jose Reyes

B-Level = LF Jason Bay, RF Carlos Beltran

C-Level = 1B Ike Davis, 2B David Murphy, CF Angel Pagan, SP Johan Santana, CL Francisco Rodriguez

Ceiling = 80 Wins

Floor = 55 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Bounce-back years from Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran, coupled with a step to the next level by Ike Davis, will provide greater consistency from the offense. Jose Reyes is playing for a new contract, and should be plenty motivated during the season to earn a big payday.

How They Fall to the Floor – If you’re observant, you will have noticed that there is only one starting pitcher listed, and that pitcher (Santana) looks to be out for at least the first month of the season. Jonathon Niese and Mike Pelfrey were the only other two that were even considered to be listable (new word I just invented). Joe Blanton, who is slated to be the Phillies 5^th starter, would be the ace of the Mets pitching staff right now. New York has managed to put together an awful rotation. Unless Oliver Perez suddenly discovers control (something he hasn’t done in 8 years), this is an extremely thin rotation. Even when Santana is healthy, New York will be lucky to have a favorable pitching match-up more than once a week.

Floor or Ceiling? – The Madoff scandal has severely crippled New York’s flexibility. Mets’ fans better hope they can find a new owner before Albert Pujols hits the open market. Look for 61-101.

3. Florida Marlins

A-Level = SS Hanley Ramirez, SP Josh Johnson

B-Level = RF Mike Stanton, CL Leo Nunez

C-Level = 1B Gaby Sanchez, 2B Omar Infante, LF Logan Morrison, CF Chris Coghlan, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Ricky Nolasco

Ceiling = 90 Wins

Floor = 70 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Three things need to happen for the Marlins to contend in the NL East. Josh Johnson needs to stay healthy for the entire season. Mike Stanton needs to keep his batting average above .260 (if he does, we could be looking at 45 home runs). Nolasco and Vazquez need to give Florida at least 24 quality starts each.

How They Fall to the Floor – Of the three things listed for Florida to reach their peak, relying on Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez is sketchiest. Nolasco has flashed tons of potential the past few seasons, but always surrounds those flashes with bouts of ineptitude. Vazquez was a disaster in New York for his second stint with the Yankees, and at his advanced age, is not guaranteed to deliver a quality season just because he is back in the NL.

Floor or Ceiling? – Buoyed by playing 18 games each against the pathetic Mets and Nationals, look for Florida to finish with a record of 85-77.

2. Atlanta Braves

A-Level = C Brian McCann, 2B Dan Uggla

B-Level = LF Martin Prado, RF Jason Heyward, SP Tommy Hanson, SP Tim Hudson

C-Level = 1B Freddie Freeman, 3B Chipper Jones, CF Nate McLouth, SP Derek Lowe, SP Jair Jurrjens, CL Craig Kimbrel

Ceiling = 95 Wins

Floor = 75 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Atlanta has a lot of interesting parts on offense. Heyward is a prodigy who will begin putting up massive numbers at some point within the next three seasons. Nate McLouth struggled during the first half, but rebounded after a stint on the minors to finish the season strong. Prado is a super-utility man who is a solid table setter at the top of the order. Atlanta needs to have a dynamic offense in order to have a chance to hang with Philadelphia.

How They Fall to the Floor – The biggest worry for Braves fans should be the bullpen. Billy Wagner decided to retire after a spectacular 2010. Rookie Craig Kimbrel has the fastball to get the job done, but control will be an issue. If Kimbrel (or someone else) doesn’t thrive in the closer role, we could see a lot of blown leads for Atlanta.

Floor or Ceiling? – I’m a huge fan of Atlanta in this season. If they were in either of the other two NL divisions, I’d have them slotted to win it. I’ll predict a record of 91-71.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

A-Level = 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley, SP Roy Halladay, SP Cliff Lee, SP Cole Hamels, SP Roy Oswalt

B-Level = SS Jimmy Rollins, CF Shane Victorino, CL Brad Lidge

C-Level = 3B Placido Polanco, LF Raul Ibanez, RP Ryan Madsen

Ceiling = 120 Wins

Floor = 95 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – It’s been written quite a bit, but it’s worth repeating…the starting rotation Philadelphia has put together is ridiculous. Halladay is the most reliable workhorse in all of baseball. Cliff Lee has helped get two different clubs into the World Series each of the last two seasons. Cole Hamels was the MVP of the 2008 World Series. Roy Oswalt is on the best team he has pitched for since the early ‘00s with the Astros. The scary part is these four great pitchers have a very solid offense supporting them (as opposed to San Francisco). This is the kind of rotation you put together in a video game. If all four pitchers perform to their potential, the sky is the limit.

How They Fall to the Floor – Chase Utley is a major question mark going into 2011. He had to have a cortisone shot in his right knee to help deal with tendonitis. If he’s having pain in March, how is he going to hold up through the summer?

Floor or Ceiling? – On paper, Philadelphia should have a favorable pitching match-up four out of every five games. 100 win seasons have been hard to come by as of late, but if any team can do it's this one. Look for 104-58.