While
fantasy football moves further and further away from the “RB-RB” draft strategy
that was popular for years, running back is still the most important position
in the game. RB has the most volatility from year to year, and the owner that
navigates that the best will have an edge over his or her league.
Tier-1 = Best Bets
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J.Charles, KC
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E.Lacy, GB
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M.Lynch, SEA
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A.Peterson, MIN
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This
quartet has the best combination of job security and possible production. We
like Charles the most due to his presence in the Chiefs passing game despite
the fact he was nicked up for most of 2014. You can’t argue with any of these
four coming off the board first in your draft.
Tier-2 = Would Be in Tier-1, but He He’s Missing Two Games
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L.Bell, PIT
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Bell would
be the number one player if not for the fact he’s missing two games due to
suspension. On average he’s going fifth in Yahoo fantasy drafts, but where he
goes will vary wildly league to league. Bell was the top scoring PPR
runningback a year ago, so there is no way he should slip out of the top-10. If
you draft him, you should plan on waiting on either a quarterback or a tight
end so you can draft a serviceable replacement for Bell during the first half
of September.
Tier-3 = Awesome Second Round Picks
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J.Hill,
CIN
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L.McCoy,
BUF
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C.Anderson,
DEN
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Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson were
on a lot of championship fantasy teams last year. If they can translate their
second half production from 2014 to a full 16 games, they will make a case to
move into Tier-1 next season. McCoy’s hamstring injury gives us reason to
worry, but if he’s healthy for Week 1 he’s going to be the feature back in an
offense that might set the record for most rushing attempts.
Tier-4 = Brand Names We Aren’t Buying
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D.Murray, PHI
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M.Forte, CHI
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The Dallas
Cowboys showed last year they had no intention of keeping Murray when they force
fed him 392 carries. Add in another 57 receptions, and you have a guy who is a
strong candidate to break down this year. Matt Forte’s value has been greatly
enhanced over the years by his reception totals, which should decline
significantly with Marc Trestman out of town.
Tier-5 = Where The Leagues Will Be Won
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L.Murray,
OAK
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C.Hyde,
SF
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J.Randle,
DAL
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J.Stewart,
CAR
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A.Abdullah,
DET
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M.Gordon,
SD
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M.Ingram,
NO
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Whether
you’re in a standard draft or auction league, the owner that can find value out
of this group will have a leg up on everyone else. This tier is so important
we’ll quickly look at each back individually.
Latavius Murray, Raiders – Here’s a fearless
prediction…Latavius puts up more fantasy points this year than DeMarco. We love
him at his current draft price (47.4 in Yahoo leagues).
Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Hyde showed flashes last season,
and with Reggie Bush merely poaching receptions, Hyde is line for a huge
workload. We also love him at his current price (50.2).
Joseph Randle, Cowboys – It feels like Dallas has
been trying to hand the starting gig to Randle all summer, but he just hasn’t
secured the job. I’m not as high on him as I was a month ago, but behind the
Cowboys’ offensive line he’s still a good bet to deliver top-20 value.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – After playing second
fiddle to DeAngelo Williams for seven years, Stewart finally enters a
season as the unquestioned lead back. He delivered solid value down the stretch
last year after Williams went down for the season, and in the past has been
active in the passing game (47 receptions in 2011). Durability is a question,
but for where he’s currently going in Yahoo drafts, an eighth round pick isn’t
a bad price for a guy who could be in-line for a career year.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Abdullah has been rocketing
up draft boards with his stellar showing in training camp and the pre-season.
We like him more in PPR leagues than standard scoring, as that ensures he
should be start-able on a weekly basis.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers – We aren’t in love with
Gordon, but barring injury he’s going to get tons of carries.
Mark Ingram, Saints – Ingram is similar to Stewart,
as it finally seems like he’s in line for a starter’s workload over the entire
season. His average draft price is a little high for our liking (39.2), but the
opportunity is there for Ingram to have his best season in THE NATIONAL
FOOTBALL LEAGUE.
Tier-6 = Solid, Yet Uninspiring #2s
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J.Forsett, BAL
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L.Miller, MIA
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A.Ellington, ARI
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A.Morris, WAS
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F.Gore, IND
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It’s a
miracle Frank Gore makes it into this tier, but if Ahmad Bradshaw could be a
PPR monster while healthy in 2014, why can’t Gore do the same this year? Justin
Forsett can be bumped up a tier in PPR leagues, as he’s likely to see a drop in
carries couple with a heavy up-tick in receptions with Marc Trestman as the
offensive coordinator. Arizona’s improved offensive line gives Andre Ellington
some decent buy-low potential.
Tier-7 = PPR Gold
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C.Spiller,
NO
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S.Vereen,
NYG
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G.Bernard,
CIN
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These three
will be able to start in PPR leagues every week, which is super valuable if you
find yourself playing in a league with 12-teams or more. Spiller and Bernard
could deliver standard league value if they are forced into feature back roles.
Tier-8 = Low-End #2s
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C.Ivory, NYJ
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D.Martin, TB
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L.Blount, NE
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R.Jennings, NYG
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J.Bell, DET
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If you
draft Le’Veon Bell, one of these guys should be drafted as your replacement for
him the first two weeks of the season. Chris Ivory has looked great during the
summer, and has the best chance of this group to deliver consistent weekly
value. Rashad Jennings and Joique Bell are starting to look like stay aways as
the regular season draws closer. Doug
Martin murdered two of my fantasy rosters last year, but that’ won’t stop me
from drafting him late if he’s available in the seventh round.
Tier-9 = Committee Hell
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T.Coleman,
ATL
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D.Freeman,
ATL
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I.Crowell,
CLE
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D.Johnson,
CLE
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D.Cobb,
TEN
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B.Sankey,
TEN
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T.Yeldon,
JAC
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A couple of
guys out of this group will be starting for teams in the fantasy playoffs, but
your guess is as good as mine on which ones it will be. Devonta Freeman is the
one I like the most out of this group, as his receiving skills should give him
the edge on the time-share in Atlanta.
Tier-10 = Rehabbing and Hurt
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T.Gurley, STL
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A.Foster, HOU
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Gurley is a
fun prospect, but the likelihood of him being on a pitch count for most of the
year limits his value. Arian Foster is missing at least a month or two, and we
don’t like his chances of staying healthy when he returns.
Tier-11 = PPR Bronze
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R.Bush, SF
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D.Woodhead, SD
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The upside
is low, but if you’re in a PPR league and in need of a sub for a bye week, you
could do worse.
Tier-12 = Handcuffs
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R.Matthews, PHI
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T.Mason, STL
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A.Williams, NYG
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D.Johnson, ARI
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A.Blue, HOU
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C.Sims, TB
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R.Helu, OAK
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C.Polk, HOU
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D.McFadden, DAL
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If we had
to bet on one guy from this group rushing for 1,000 yards in 2015, it would be
Andre Williams. You should draft one or two of these backs in the later rounds
on the chance they find themselves in a starting role before the end of the
season.
When We’re Drafting Them
We’ll list
our rules in bullet points.
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If No Credentials has a top-4 pick, we are drafting a Tier-1
RB.
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Le’Veon Bell is the biggest wildcard of the RB group. He should
be considered anywhere between 5-10. If you take him, you should plan on using
three of your first seven picks on running backs.
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It would be hard for me to snag one of the Tier-3 backs over a
Tier-1 WR, unless I already used a first round pick on a wide out.
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Unless I end up with Rob Gronkowski, two of my first five
picks will definitely be running backs.
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You should devote the most bench spots to the running back position.
RB’s value varies wildly throughout the year, and the more lottery tickets you
own, the better chance you have of upgrading another spot on your roster via
trade.
