2014 AFC West Preview

4. Oakland Raiders

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Jets, Texans, @ Patriots, Dolphins, BYE, Chargers, Cardinals, @ Browns, @ Seahawks, Broncos, @ Chargers, Chiefs, @ Rams, 49ers, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Broncos

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Marcel Reece

Solid Contributors = WR James Jones, LT Donald Penn, C Stefen Wisniewski, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Justin Tuck, DT Antonio Smith, CB Tarell Brown, SS Tyvon Branch

Impact Rookies = OLB Khalil Mack (1-5, Buffalo)

Good News = They’ve shed almost all of their dead contracts, giving them salary cap flexibility for the first time since the Jon Gruden era.

Bad News = In an anonymous player poll, Oakland was voted as the least desirable team to play for in the league.

Outlook = If the Raiders didn’t face such a hellacious schedule in 2014, we’d be a little more enthusiastic about their chances to reach .500 this year. As it stands, it’s an improved roster with plenty of long-term flexibility going forward. Matt Schaub was brought in to start the season at quarterback, but don’t be shocked if Derek Carr is the one who finishes it. Carr showed a much higher ceiling during the pre-season before suffering a concussion last Friday against Detroit. Against all odds, Darren McFadden resigned on a one-year prove it deal, and he’ll share carries with Jaguars castoff Maurice Jones-Drew. Perhaps if they start the year splitting carries, maybe one of them will still be healthy at the end of the year. The receiving core is interesting, but we aren’t confident that the current quarterback situation will be able to take advantage of it. James Jones was signed from Green Bay, and he provides a solid deep threat. Rod Streeter hauled in 60 passes last year (a lot of them from Matt McGloin!), and Denarius Moore has shown flashes of big play ability. The Raiders most intriguing offensive player is tight end Mychal Rivera, who after being drafted in the sixth round last year, will get the opportunity for full-time work this year. Oakland’s offensive line will feature four new starters, and the ability of that group to develop chemistry will be the biggest factor in the Raiders being a competent offensive club.

            Defensively is where the Raiders should plan to hang their hat this year, as the majority of their off-season moves were made to improve a unit that gave up the second most points in franchise history. Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith were all solid free agent pickups that immediately improve their defense. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers were brought over from across the Bay to bolster a defense that was the fifth worst in the NFL. Tyvon Branch only played two games last year, so his return to health will also provide a lift. The linebacking core is the weakest link of the group, with Khalil Mack needing to provide an immediate lift.

Prediction = The record will still stink, but at least the Raiders are moving in the right direction. 4-12

 3. Kansas City Chiefs

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in AFC West, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = Titans, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, Patriots, @ 49ers, BYE, @ Chargers, Rams, Jets, @ Bills, Seahawks, @ Raiders, Broncos, @ Cardinals, Raiders, @ Steelers, Chargers

Blue Chippers = HB Jamaal Charles, DT Dontari Poe

High Quality Players = MLB Derrick Johnson, OLB Justin Houston, OLB Tamba Hali, SS Eric Berry

Solid Contributors = WR Dwayne Bowe, DE Mike DeVito

Impact Rookies = DE Dee Ford (1-23, Auburn)

Good News = Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are healthy to start the season.

Bad News = Can you say regression?

Outlook = Last year, Kansas City parlayed the good fortune of facing one of the weakest schedules in recent memory into a playoff appearance. This year, they aren’t so fortunate. With the exception of their road trip to Oakland, none of their away games are easy on paper. That would make running the table at home almost a requirement if they are to make a playoff push, but with Denver, New England, and Seattle coming to Arrowhead, that is also unlikely. How competitive they are will likely depend on how much star pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are on the field. When they are causing havoc, this is one of the elite defensive units in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

            The offense should’ve been called “Jamaal Charles and the Kansas City Chiefs” last year, because he literally put the team on his back. Charles led the team in rushing and receiving while piling up a league high 19 total touchdowns. His ability to be effective in the passing game keeps his fantasy value high in spite of the retooled offensive line he’ll be working with this year. Kansas City lost three starters from their line last year, and desperately need Eric Fisher to emerge as a star in his first full season at left tackle. Carolina is the only team in the league that features a more pathetic core of wide receivers, as Dwayne Bowe looked washed up at times in 2013.

Prediction = Kansas City will struggle against the NFC West, which will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for their playoff hopes. 7-9

2. San Diego Chargers

2013 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC West, Lost AFC Divisional Game

2014 Schedule = @ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Bills, Jaguars, Jets, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, BYE, Raiders, Rams, @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs

Blue Chippers = FS Eric Weddle

High Quality Players = QB Phillip Rivers, WR Keenan Allen

Solid Contributors = HB Ryan Matthews, HB Danny Woodhead, WR Malcolm Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, LT King Dunlap, C Nick Hardwick, RT D.J. Fluker, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Brandon Flowers

Impact Rookies = CB Jason Verrett (1-25, TCU), OLB Jerry Attaochu (2-50, Georgia Tech)

Good News = Phillip Rivers has reestablished himself as a true franchise quarterback.

Bad News = San Diego still needs to prove it can be consistent week to week.

Outlook = The Chargers are one of the trendier dark horse picks in the AFC, and for good reason. Only division rival Denver generated more passing yards last year, and San Diego won five of their last six to sneak into the playoffs. The offense should still be very good, with depth across the board at all of the skill positions. If they can incorporate second-string tight end Ladarius Green into the rotation, the offense will become even more potent. Ryan Matthews wasn’t necessarily spectacular, but his surprising run of health provided stability in the running game. Keenan Allen was a sensation upon his insertion into the starting lineup, and should put up monster numbers with the chance to be featured for a full 16 games. Their offensive line was competent for the first time in years, and should take more steps forward with some progression by King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker.

            A porous pass defense is the main reason San Diego had to scratch and claw it’s way into a wildcard spot (they made Chiefs backup Chase McDaniel look like the second coming of Joe Montana in Week 17), but fortunately the Chargers were aggressive in addressing this weakness. Brandon Flowers was signed after he was released by Kansas City, and he will be paired with first round pick Jason Verrett in a rebuilt secondary. Jerry Attaochu will likely need to make a decent impact, because it’s hard to for see Dwight Freeney staying healthy the entire season.     

Prediction = San Diego will sneak up to 10 wins, but they still aren’t quite at Denver’s level yet. 10-6 

1. Denver Broncos

2013 Record = 13-3, AFC West Champions, Lost Super Bowl

2014 Schedule = Colts, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, BYE, Cardinals, @ Jets, 49ers, Chargers, @ Patriots, @ Raiders, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Chargers, @ Bengals, Raiders

Blue Chippers = QB Peyton Manning, OLB Von Miller

High Quality Players = WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, LT Ryan Clady, RG Louis Vasquez, DT Terrance Knighton, DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris, SS T.J. Ward

Solid Contributors = WR Wes Welker, LG Orlando Franklin, C Manny Ramirez, OLB Danny Trevathan

Impact Rookies = CB Bradley Roby (1-31, Ohio State), WR Cody Latimer (2-56, Indiana)

Good News = On paper, no team did more to improve it’s defense during the off-season than Denver.

Bad News = They get a Super Bowl rematch in Week 3.

Outlook = After getting obliterated by Seattle in the Super Bowl last February, it’s easy to point out flaws in the Broncos, and even make a case that San Diego could overtake them in their own division. However, when you take a step back and look at the overall landscape in the AFC, it’s easy to see that they are by far the deepest team in the Conference. Ryan Clady’s return will stabilize the entire offensive line, and the addition of DeMarcus Ware provides another elite pass rusher to take some pressure off of Von Miller. What could be the difference if Denver is to win a Super Bowl could be the health of Wes Welker and Chris Harris. Welker has suffered three concussions in the last 10 months, and Harris developed into a shutdown corner before going down with a knee injury in the playoffs.

Prediction = With or without Welker this season, the offense is solid enough to win another AFC West title. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the NFC South

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the NFC North

2013 AFC South Preview

          Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars

 

2012 Record = 2-14, fourth in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Seahawks, Colts, @ Rams, @ Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, BYE, @ Titans, Cardinals, @ Texans, @ Browns, Texans, Bills, Titans, @ Colts

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene Monroe

Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon (suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny
Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M, 1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson (Michigan, 5-135)

Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).  

Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012, but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville. They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.

Ceiling = 7-9 – It sounds crazy to say there’s a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could happen.

Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game.
Prediction = 3-13
            The offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
 

3. Indianapolis Colts

 

2012 Record = 11-5, second in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Raiders, Dolphins, @ 49ers, @ Jaguars, Seahawks, @ Chargers, Broncos, BYE, @ Texans, Rams, @ Titans, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Chiefs, Jaguars

Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne

Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS LaRon Landry
Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St., 1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)

Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure. Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard. Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y. Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to start early in their careers. 

Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression, and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this off-season to improve their 26^th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.

Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis.
Prediction = 6-10
            The Colts were fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect. Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a second straight playoff appearance.
 

2. Tennessee Titans

 

2012 Record = 6-10

2013 Schedule = @ Steelers, @ Texans, Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, 49ers, BYE, @ Rams, Jaguars, Colts, @ Raiders, @ Colts, @ Broncos, Cardinals, @ Jaguars, Texans

Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre

Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud
Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10), WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)

Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season. 1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco. Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and was surprisingly reliable on third down.

Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note. Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face Tom Brady this year.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Only attainable if the defense maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.

Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35 points a game.
Prediction = 9-7
            If I were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
 

1. Houston Texans

 

2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC South

2013 Schedule = @ Chargers, Titans, @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Chiefs, BYE, Colts, @ Cardinals, Raiders, Jaguars, Patriots, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Broncos, @ Titans

Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing

Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning
Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27), FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)

Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines. 

Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a 3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback (see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Ceiling = 14-2 – The defense does have a chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.

Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the Texans to fall to .500.
Prediction = 10-6
            On paper they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling for a third or fourth seed.

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

2012 AFC South Preview

            Here’s the AFC South, aka “the worst division in football”.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record = 5-11, Third in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ MIN, HOU, @ IND, CIN, CHI, BYE, @ OAK, @ GB, DET, IND, @ HOU, TEN, @ BUF, NYJ, @ MIA, NE, @ TEN

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DT Tyson Alualu, LB Paul Posluszny

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Laurent Robinson, CB Aaron Ross
Potential Impact Rookies = WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) 1-5, DE Andre Branch (Clemson) 2-6

Outlook = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne will be the starting quarterback, they took a punter in the third round of the draft, and there's a great chance their best player could hold out for a good portion of the regular season. Maybe we’ll write more about this team when they move to Los Angeles.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Indianapolis Colts



2011 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South

2012 Schedule = @ CHI, MIN, JAC, BYE, GB, @ NYJ, CLE, @ TEN, MIA, @ JAC, @ NE, BUF, @ DET, TEN, @ HOU, @ KC, HOU

Franchise Players = WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney, DE Robert Mathis, S Antoine Bethea

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DT Cory Redding, S Tom Zhikowski
Potential Impact Rookies = Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1-1, TE Coby Fleener (Stanford) 2-2, TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 3-1

Outlook = Has there ever been a more under the radar number one draft pick than Andrew Luck? Thanks to all the hoopla over Robert Griffin III, Luck has quietly gone about his business in Indy. His stellar performance in his first preseason game seemed to remind folks that he, not Griffin, was the top player selected in the 2012 draft. If he’s anything close to the “best college prospect since Peyton Manning”, it’s not outrageous to think that this team can be competitive. Sure the offensive line still stinks, and the defense is still a work in progress, but there are still veterans from Manning’s best teams that will not let the team quit on their young quarterback. Don’t expect a surprising playoff run, but look for the Colts to begin sowing the seeds for a successful 2014 and beyond.

Ceiling = 8-8

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

2. Houston Texans



2011 Record = 10-6, First in AFC South, Lost in AFC Divisional Game
2012 Schedule = MIA, @ JAC, @ DEN, TEN, @ NYJ, GB, BAL, BYE, BUF, @ CHI, JAC, @ DET, @ TEN, @ NE, IND, MIN, @ IND

Franchise Players = QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, T Duane Brown, DE J.J. Watt, LB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan Joseph

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB Bradie James, S Alan Ball
Potential Impact Rookies = Whitney Mercilius (Illinois) 1-26

Outlook = Houston overcame a season ending injury to Matt Schaub and season-long hamstring troubles for Andre Johnson to win the franchise’s first division title and playoff game. The offensive line is strong enough that it doesn’t matter whether Arian Foster or Ben Tate is carrying the ball. With a healthy Johnson (which could be hard to ask for, he’s already had hamstring troubles in training camp) this offense could return to it’s 2009-10 level of production. My worries aren’t with the Texans offense, but their defense. Mario Williams left (for a ginormous amount of money) for the Buffalo Bills, leaving Houston without one of the ten best defensive players in the league. For Houston’s defense to maintain their high level of play from last season, J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing needs to fill that void. Color me a pessimist, but I don’t see that happening. 

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

1. Tennessee Titans



2011 Record = 9-7, Second in AFC South

2012 Schedule = NE, @ SD, DET, @ HOU, @ MIN, PIT, @ BUF, IND, CHI, @ MIA, BYE, @ JAC, HOU, @ IND, NYJ, @ GB, JAC

Franchise Players = QB Jake Locker, RB Chris Johnson, WR Kenny Britt, T Michael Roos, DE Derrick Morgan, S Michael Griffin

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Steven Hutchinson, LB Kamerion Wimbley
Potential Impact Rookies =WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) 1-20

Outlook = Tennessee has more question marks than your average team. Will Jake Locker take the reigns at QB and raise the Titans to another level? Will Chris Johnson return to the form he showed before he was paid a significant amount of money? Will Kenny Britt stay out of jail? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, Tennessee could be a surprisingly tough opponent for teams like New England, Chicago, and Green Bay. I’ll buy in on Locker and Johnson, which should be enough for Tennessee to take a weak division.

Ceiling = 11-5

Floor = 5-11
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7


Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

2011 AFC South Preview

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

2010 Record = 8-8, 2^nd in Division

Key Additions = LB Paul Posluszny, S Dawan Landry, LB Clint Session
Key Losses = WR Mike Sims-Walker, LB Justin Durant,

Schedule = Titans, @ Jets, @ Panthers, Saints, Bengals, @ Steelers, Ravens, @ Texans, BYE, @ Colts, @ Browns, Texans, Chargers, Buccaneers, @ Falcons, @ Titans, Colts

Real-Life Outlook = Ever since the end of the Mark Brunell era, it seems like Jacksonville has thrown together a crappy roster, yet somehow managed to finish around .500. I like the team’s additions on defense (they were forced to dole out the cash so they could reach the new minimum salary requirement), but two things are really working against them this season.

1. Jacksonville is dealing with a legitimate quarterback controversy. David Garrard has been a solid starting quarterback the past four years, but the team drafted Blaine Gabbert with the 10^th overall pick. If the Jaguars find themselves below .500 going into their bye, expect people to clamor for the young gun to take over under center.
2. Along with the Vikings, the Jaguars are the most logical franchise to move to Los Angeles. Potential relocation has derailed teams for years in all sports (with the exception of the Minnesota Twins, who beat back contraction talk a decade ago, and now play in one of the best new ballparks in all of MLB).

     Maybe Jacksonville could overcome one of those issues, but not both. I’ll still give them a relatively high ceiling, but a very low chance of reaching it.

Fantasy Outlook = It didn’t take long for Maurice Jones-Drew to fall from the fantasy elite. After a two-year stretch of being a top-5 pick in all fantasy leagues, MJD can now be had anywhere from picks 10-20. If you do take Maurice, do your best to handcuff the Jaguars backfield by also getting Rashad Jennings. Jennings averaged 5.5 yards per carry in limited action last season, and could see more action if Jones-Drew continues to show signs of wearing down. WR Mike Thomas should be looked at as one of your bye-week substitutes, and if you miss out on a big-name tight end, wait until about the 10^th round and draft Mercedes Lewis. He probably won’t score 10 touchdowns again, but don’t be shocked if he catches at least 65 passes.

Ceiling = 9-7

Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Houston Texans

2010 Record = 6-10, 3^rd in Division

Key Additions = CB Jonathan Joseph, S Daniel Manning
Key Losses = FB Vonta Leach, G Mike Brisiel

Schedule = Colts, @ Dolphins, @ Saints, Steelers, Raiders, @ Ravens, @ Titans, Jaguars, Browns, @ Buccaneers, BYE, @ Jaguars, Falcons, @ Bengals, Panthers, @ Colts, Titans

Real-Life Outlook = After years of being one of the trendy picks to make the playoffs, experts have finally stopped predicting that Houston will have a breakout season. There’s no questioning of the offensive talent they can put on the field, but soft defensive play destroyed Houston in 2010. Keep in mind that this defense was so bad, Donovan McNabb threw for 350 yards against them (more on McNabb in the NFC North Preview). Adding Joseph to anchor one of the cornerback spots will be a boost (Joseph is probably the best corner that this team has ever employed), but you can’t totally trust this group until you see their defensive line perform (they’ve done a nice job of surrounding Mario Williams with a bunch of stiffs over the past five years). If the front seven can take of business, than the sky is the limit for this team. It’s fair to call them this year’s AFC version of the Arizona Cardinals.   

Fantasy Outlook = In the soon to be released No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, two Texans went in the top-6 (if that isn’t a sign of the rapture, I don’t know what is). Arian Foster isn’t totally trustworthy in my opinion (he’s only had one huge year, and was a bust in college), but his production last year will make him the top pick in the majority of fantasy leagues. Andre Johnson has been the top per-game producer at wide receiver for years now, and is as reliable a 1^st round pick as you can make this season (especially in PPR leagues). Matt Schaub will more than likely be the 8^th quarterback taken in your draft. Expect him to come off the board sometime in the 5^th or early 6^th round. Owen Daniels will also go in the 6^th round area, but you’re better off waiting for a guy like Mercedes Lewis than taking Daniels that high.  

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Indianapolis Colts

2010 Record = 10-6, 1^st in Division (Lost in Wildcard Round vs. Jets)

Key Additions = DT Tommie Harris
Key Losses = LB Clint Session

Schedule = @ Texans, Browns, Steelers, @ Buccaneers, Chiefs, @ Bengals, @ Saints, @ Titans, Falcons, Jaguars, BYE, Panthers, @ Patriots, @ Ravens, Titans, Texans, @ Jaguars

Real-Life Outlook = On the good side, Indianapolis has almost all of the pieces back from last years team. On the down side, that was a team that couldn’t stop the run or run the ball themselves. The potential for an improved run defense is there if former Bears first-rounder Tommie Harris has a bounce back year. The Colts added plenty of rookies to the offensive line, but the club still lacks a stud runningback. For this team to be successful, Peyton Manning will have to push 4,800 yards and minimize turnovers at the same time.

Fantasy Outlook = Peyton will be anywhere from the 3^rd to 6^th QB taken in your draft. His neck injury might scare some people off, but Manning will need to physically lose limbs before he even considers missing a game. He’ll go somewhere near the end of the 2^nd round. Reggie Wayne had a great bounce-back year in 2010. If you’re looking to bet on one receiver who will most likely break 100 receptions this season, Wayne is the guy. Dallas Clark appears to be healthy, and will cost you at least a 5^th round pick to acquire his services. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie need to thought of as potential 3^rd starters or solid bye week options. Garcon has the most upside, and would be the receiver I would prefer to have on my team.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Tennessee Titans

2010 Record = 6-10, 4^th in Division

Key Additions = QB Matt Hasselbeck, LB Barrett Rudd
Key Losses = DE Jason Babin, LB Stephen Tulloch

Schedule = @ Jaguars, Ravens, Broncos, @ Browns, @ Steelers, BYE, Texans, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Buccaneers, @ Bills, Saints, @ Colts, Jaguars, @ Texans

Real-Life Outlook = I won’t sit here and predict that Matt Hasselbeck will be the league MVP, but I do feel comfortable saying that Hasselbeck is the best quarterback this team has had since Steve McNair (keep in mind that last year they had some guy named Rusty, or Rocky, or Rudolph playing quarterback for a game or two). Tennessee was one of the surprise teams in the AFC last year before the Vince Young/Jeff Fisher debacle submarined their season. With both of those men gone, I’m expecting Tennessee to have a solid season. I haven’t discussed the schedule so far during my first few previews (mostly because there’s so much parody year to year, and teams you think will be bad going into the season end up being good, and vice versa), but Tennessee looks to have the most favorable schedule we’ve covered so far. The Titans play Buffalo while the Colts play New England. Tennessee plays Denver while Jacksonville gets the Chargers. Of their eight road games, they should only be heavy underdogs in three of them. Barring unexpected developments, Tennessee’s schedule could be the difference in the AFC South. 

Fantasy Outlook = Chris Johnson will go no later than pick 5 in your draft. He’s one player I want to track closely during the preseason. I have no facts to back up this statement, but I feel like he’s the kind of guy that was probably drinking gallons of Grey Goose and eating Doritos during the lockout. I want to make sure he doesn’t look like Bam Morris (circa 1995) before even considering adding him to my fantasy team. If he’s fine, he should eclipse 1,600 yards with a reliable QB under center. Hasselbeck is nothing more than a bye week fill-in. Kenny Britt is an interesting option, assuming he’s able to stay out of jail long enough to help you.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

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the AFC North
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC North
the NFC South
the NFC West