Denver Broncos (-2.5) over Seattle Seahawks Denver
got their first break of the game with a favorable weather forecast, and we don’t
think the breaks will end with that. We doubt that the officials will let the
Seahawks secondary be extra physical with the Denver receivers, likely leading
to multiple pass interference penalties. Furthermore, the Broncos’ defense is
suited to stop the Seattle running game, meaning the likely spark plug of
offense has to be Russell Wilson. We think he comes up short this time. Denver 27, Seattle 17
Franchise Players = RB Reggie Bush, T Jake Long, C Mike
Pouncey, LB Cameron Wake
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB E.J. Henderson, CB
Richard Marshall, G Eric Steinbach Potential Impact Rookies = QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas
A&M) 1-8, T Jonathan Martin (Stanford) 2-10, Lamar Miller (Miami) 4-2
Outlook = Miami just traded their best
corner to the Colts. Not quite as dramatic as the Red Sox shipping $253 million
worth of salary to Los Angeles for the equivalent of a poop sandwich, but it’s
the same idea. Their offensive line is good enough that they’ll steal a couple
of wins just by running over people, but this team is going no where fast.
Franchise Players = TE Dustin Keller, T D’Brickashaw
Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, LB Bart Scott, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Antonio
Cromartie
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = God, QB Tim Tebow, S LaRon
Landry Potential Impact Rookies = DE Quinton Coples (North
Carolina) 1-16, Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 2-11
Outlook = New York has a great defense (on
paper anyway), and they are built to primarily run the football. In other
words, they’d be great if the year was 1964. Unfortunately, they are not
constructed to succeed in the new pass-happy NFL. Mark Sanchez hasn’t developed
much since a solid rookie campaign in 2009, so expecting a leap from him is
foolish. Throw in the possibility of the home crowd chanting for Tebow after
every incompletion, and this makes for a miserable season for Sanchez and the
Jets. Expect it to be the last year we see Rex Ryan roaming the Jets’ sideline.
Franchise Players = QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson,
WR Stevie Johnson, G Andy Levitre, DT Marcell Dareus, DT Kyle Williams, CB
Leodis McKelvin
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DE Mario Williams, DE Mark
Anderson Potential Impact Rookies = CB Stephon Gilmore (South
Carolina) 1-10, T Cordy Glenn (Georgia) 2-9
Outlook = It’s not very often that the
largest free agent contract handed out comes from the Buffalo Bills, but that’s
what happened this off-season whey they inked Mario Williams to a $100 million
deal. Buffalo has the scariest defensive line in the AFC East, which is a good
thing when you have two dates with Tom Brady every year. There’s a little too
much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved to make me believe that this is a Super Bowl
contender, but this should be the season that the Bills finally return to the
playoffs.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 6-10 No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
1. New England Patriots
2011 Record = 13-3, First in AFC East, Lost Super Bowl
Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob
Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez, G Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod
Mayo, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Devin McCourty, S Patrick Chung, K Stephen
Gostkowski
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Joseph Addai, WR Brandon
Lloyd, G Robert Gallery, CB Will Allen Potential Impact Rookies = DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)
1-21, LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) 1-25, RB Jeff Demps (Florida) Undrafted
Outlook = To illustrate just how weak the
Patriots schedule is this season, I’m going to list the likely quarterbacks
they will face in each of their games.
Week 1 = Jake Locker (I like Locker, but it will be his
first NFL start)
Week 2 = Kevin Kolb or John Skelton (aka “the crappy
quarterback” or “the other crappy quarterback”)
Week 3 = Joe Flacco
Week 4 = Ryan Fitzpatrick
Week 5 = Peyton Manning (five years ago this would be scary,
but at 85% arm strength, not so much anymore)
Week 6 = Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn (Wilson might’ve
gotten squashed by a defensive tackle by this point)
Week 7 = Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow
Week 8 = Sam Bradford
Week 10 = Fitzpatrick
Week 11 = Andrew Luck (this will be scary in two or three
years, but he’s still a rookie)
Week 12 = Tebow (Sanchez might make it to Week 7, but not
Week 12)
Week 13 = Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore
Week 14 = T.J. Yates, or T.J. Hooker, or whoever the Texans
backup is (Schaub will be hurt by Week 14)
Week 15 = Alex Smith
Week 16 = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne (it sucks to cheer
for the Jaguars)
Week 17 = Tannehill or Moore
Isn’t 85%
Peyton Manning still the best quarterback on this list? It’s ridiculous. As
soon as I phone this column in I’m placing a hefty wager on the over for New
England’s season win total.
10. Utah Jazz Owner Blasts Karl Malone Hard
to pick a side in this one, but it’s pretty sad when a franchise gets involved
in public bickering with the greatest
player that ever wore their uniform.
9. Manchester United Comes Back From 3-0 Deficit to Earn
Draw at Chelsea
I
don’t know much about soccer, but I can say with confidence that it’s not easy
to score 3 goals, and even harder to score 3 goals after
3 goals have been scored against you.
8. Cam Newton and Von Miller Win Offensive and Defensive
Rookie of the Year
I’m
too lazy to research this, but I’ll give a shout-out to anyone who can let No
Credentials know the last time the top two picks in the previous years draft
won the Rookie of the Year awards.
7. Aaron Rodgers Wins 2011 NFL MVP Award
Remembering
that this is a regular season award, the voters
got it right giving Rodgers the MVP and honoring Drew Brees as the
Offensive Player of the Year.
6. Roger Goodell Admits That Eliminating Pro Bowl is an
Option
Kudos
to Goodell for not coming out and defending such an awful event and put out
there that changes
need to be made. This year’s Pro Bowl didn’t even crack last week’s review,
as I didn’t even remember that it was A) on, or B) had happened.
4. Kevin Garnett Looks Young (For One Day), Leads Celtics
Over Grizzlies
Its
too bad Boston can’t play every game at noon on Super Bowl Sunday. Garnett is
one of the few players crazy enough to get up for a game at that time
of day.
3. Curtis Martin Elected to Pro Football Hall of Fame
1995 was
the first year that I was truly obsessed with football, and Martin
was the Offensive Rookie of the Year that season for the Patriots. I guess
that means I’m getting old.
2.Audi’s Super Bowl Vampire Ad
In
another weak year for commercials, Audi’s “Vampire Party was easily best in
show. Honorable mention goes to Acura’s Jerry Seinfeld ad.
1. Giants Defeat Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI
I’ll
remember Super Bowl XLVI as one of the weirdest Super Bowl’s
ever. Tom Brady’s first pass attempt resulting in a safety. Feeling like
New York should’ve been up by three touchdowns at halftime, but somehow it was
10-9 Patriots. Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Aaron Hernandez all having a
really bad case of the drops, and then getting ripped by Mrs. Brady (no
joke, read here!). Madonna looking like she’s at the peak of a steroid
cycle. Lastly, Ahmad Bradshaw scoring the ugliest game-winning touchdown in the
history of football. As a Cowboys fan who hates the Giants more than any other
franchise (sorry Redskins, you’ve been too pathetic for too long), I’ll forever
believe that this game is different if Patriot killer Bernard Pollard didn’t
injure Rob Gronkowski in the AFC Championship Game.
Real-Life Outlook = Miami’s defense is one of the most underrated units in the league (throw out two lopsided games against New England, and you have a defense that only gave up more than 18 points once), but offensive ineptitude rules the day. There’s about a 15% chance Chad Henne figures it all out and becomes a reliable NFL starter. He’s going to need to be, as the Dolphins runningback situation is the sketchiest in the league. Reggie Bush will look great in spurts, but is not effective enough between the tackles to be a reliable every-down back. Second round draft pick Daniel Thomas was a popular fantasy sleeper, but has done nothing to generate optimism during the pre-season. Expect the futility of the Dolphins’ backfield to undermine the efforts of the defense and top flight wide receiver Brandon Marshall.
Ceiling = 8-8
Floor = 3-13 No Credentials Prediction = 5-11
3. Buffalo Bills
2010 Record = 4-12 (4th in Division)
Key Additions = LB Nick Barnett, LB Kirk Morrison Key Losses = LB Paul Posluszny, S Donte Whitner, LB Aaron Maybin
Real-Life Outlook = One of the friskiest 4-12 teams in NFL history, the 2010 Bills were a treat to watch. Expect more of the same this season, as Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter from week 1 (fantasy folks, you could do much worse if you are in need of a bye-week fill-in than Fitzpatrick, depending on the match-up). Stevie Johnson could be in for the best season from a Bills wide out since Eric Moulds in 2002. Buffalo will be behind plenty again (in case you were wondering, the defense is still horrendous), so expect plenty of balls to be flying Johnson’s way.
Ceiling = 8-8
Floor = 2-14 No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
2. New York Jets
2010 Record = 11-5 (2nd in Division, Lost AFC Championship Game @ Steelers)
Key Additions = WR Plaxico Burress, LB Aaron Maybin Key Losses = WR Braylon Edwards, DE Shaun Ellis, DT Kris Jenkins, LB Jason Taylor
Real-Life Outlook = So let me get this straight. A team that starts a quarterback that is barely able to complete half of his passes, that downgraded at wide receiver (believe it or not, Braylon Edwards is better than Plaxico), and lost three solid defensive starters is supposed to be a Super Bowl favorite? Unless Mark Sanchez turns into the 1998 version of Vinny Testaverde, this team is destined for another uneven 10-6 season (which most fan bases wouldn’t complain about, but obnoxious Jets fans won’t be satisfied).
Ceiling = 13-3
Floor = 8-8 No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
1. New England Patriots
2010 Record = 14-2 (1st in Division, Lost Divisional Round Game vs. Jets)
Key Additions = G Brian Waters, WR Chad Ochocinco, DT Albert Haynesworth, DE Shaun Ellis Key Losses = DE Ty Warren, S Brandon Meriweather
Real-Life Outlook = Only surpassed by Philadelphia in terms of the most high profile off season moves, New England appears poised to win another AFC East title. Signing perennial Pro Bowler Brian Waters will do wonders for the offensive line (expect a big season from Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, aka “The Firm”), and the Patriots young defense can only get better. Barring injury, New England will win the division.
