My 19th Favorite Year of Football: 2000

            Every once in a while, No Credentials will add to a countdown of most fun years of professional football. The farthest we’ll go back is 1995 (I was 10, and this was the first season that I officially hit “sports fanatic” status), which unfortunately means we leave out the Jimmy Johnson Cowboys’ teams. Here are the factors that have ultimately influenced my enjoyment of a particular season.

-         The quality of the elite teams

-         The performance of the Dallas Cowboys

-         The performance of the New England Patriots (even though they aren’t my team, I have spent my whole life in New England, which contributes to the enjoyment of the people around me)

-         Memorable games

-         The quality of the Super Bowl and that year’s playoffs
 

Without further ado, my least favorite year of football (so far), the year 2000.

AFC Playoff Teams

#1 13-3 Tennessee Titans (AFC Central Champions) – One of the forgotten great teams that didn’t win a Super Bowl, Tennessee only allowed 26 more points then the record setting Baltimore Ravens did in 2000. It should also be mentioned that they literally ran Eddie George into the ground, as he piled up 403 carries (and another 50 receptions) during the regular season. No wonder he never averaged over 4 yards per carry in the ‘00s.

#2 12-4 Oakland Raiders (AFC West Champions) – Beginning a three year run of Super Bowl contention, Rich Gannon proved to be the perfect quarterback to pilot Jon Gruden’s West Coast offense.

#3 11-5 Miami Dolphins (AFC East Champions) – On paper, it seems pretty ridiculous that a team led by Jay Fiedler could knock off Peyton Manning in the AFC East. It is easy to forget how dominant Jason Taylor was.

#4 12-4 Baltimore Ravens – I’m certain there aren’t a whole bunch of people that remember that Baltimore was second to Tennessee in the AFC Central during their first Super Bowl winning season. Tony Banks started the season at quarterback, but was a complete disaster. Trent Dilfer stepped in, became the ultimate “game manager”, and Baltimore never looked back.

#5 11-5 Denver Broncos – 2000 was such a bad year in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, Brian Griese led the league in quarterback rating.

#6 10-6 Indianapolis Colts – Saddled with lofty preseason expectations, the young Colts struggled to secure a wildcard spot in Peyton Manning’s third season before losing in overtime at Miami in the first round of the playoffs.

NFC Playoff Teams

#1 12-4 New York Giants (NFC East Champions) – You could make a case that the 2000 Giants were the worst team to make the Super Bowl during the ‘00s.

#2 11-5 Minnesota Vikings (NFC Central Champions) – Led by the dynamic duo of Randy Moss and Cris Carter, Minnesota rocketed out to a 11-2 start before blowing the number one seed with three straight losses. That led to their infamous 41-0 shellacking at Giants Stadium in the NFC Championship game.

#3 10-6 New Orleans Saints (NFC West Champions) – The most surprising team of the 2000 season, unlikely starter Aaron Brooks led to the Saints to a shocking division title over the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, and even beat the Rams in the first round of the playoffs. This would prove to be the best Saints team of the Jim Haslett era.

#4 11-5 Philadelphia Eagles – Philadelphia famously drank pickle juice during the Week 1 thrashing of the Cowboys in Dallas, and rode that momentum to their first playoff berth under Andy Reid. Donovan McNabb led a home victory over the Buccaneers in the first round of the playoffs, but they were unable to upset the Giants in round two.

#5 10-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa was the popular Super Bowl pick in the NFC, but inconsistent quarterback play from Shaun King proved to be their undoing.

#6 10-6 St. Louis Rams – The lost year between their Super Bowl appearances, St. Louis was wildly inconsistent during their Super Bowl defense. Offensively they were the most explosive team in the league, but a leaky defense proved to be too much to overcome.

How My Cowboys Did – Let’s just say 2000 was rock bottom. We mentioned the Week 1 shellacking by the Eagles in their write-up, but what we left out was the end of Troy Aikman. Aikman was knocked unconscious after throwing five incomplete passes, and later in the year would have his career ended by a LaVar Arrington hit. Week 1 was even more disastrous when Joey Galloway, whom the Cowboys traded two first round picks for, tore his ACL. Things have been rough over the past few years of the Romo era, but 2000 will always be remembered as my least favorite Cowboys season. The only memorable thing from it was when the Cowboys "defended the star" when Terrell Owens posed on it after a touchdown.

 

 



How the Patriots Did – New England was dreadful in 2000, finishing last in the AFC East with a 5-11 record, but two important men were added to their franchise that would forever change the course of the next decade. The Patriots traded three draft picks (including their first round pick in 2000) to the Jets for the coaching services of Bill Belichick. Even more game changing, New England drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft.

MVP and Offensive Player of the Year – Marshall Faulk, RB, St. Louis Rams

            In terms of per-game production, Faulk’s 2000 season was the most dominant of his NFL career. Despite missing two games, he put up 26 total touchdowns and nearly 2,200 yards of total offense.

 

Defensive Player of the Year – Ray Lewis, MLB, Baltimore Ravens

            The most polarizing figure in sports at the time, Lewis was the dominant player of the 2000-01 season in spite of dealing with a potential murder charge. His strip of Eddie George in the Divisional Round game at Tennessee was the signature play of the season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Mike Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

            Anderson was the third no-name rookie to thrive in Mike Shanahan’s offense, rumbling for nearly 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns after both Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary went down to injury.

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Brian Urlacher, MLB, Chicago Bears

            Urlacher was a stiff the last couple of years he played, but when he came into the league he was a new wave, hyper athletic middle linebacker. Chicago can’t complain with the production they got out of their 2000 first round pick.

Memorable Games

Week 8, Dolphins @ Jets – Down 30-7, Vinny Testaverde throws four fourth quarter touchdown passes to push the Jets into overtime. New York booted a field goal in overtime to cap off the Monday Night Miracle.

 

2001 AFC Divisional Round, Ravens @ Titans – In what was essentially the championship game for the NFL (they were clearly the two best teams), Ray Lewis and company overpowered the Titans. Lewis made what in No Credentials’ opinion was the signature play of his career to seal the game.

 

You Won Your Fantasy League If You Started…

QB: Daunte Culpepper, Vikings = 350 Fantasy Points (Culpepper was a mid-round pick entering his first year as a starter, and in terms of number of championship teams he was on, was probably the fantasy MVP of 2000. Yours truly had the pleasure of winning a league with him that year)

RB: Marshall Faulk, Rams = 381 Fantasy Points
RB: Edgerrin James, Colts = 340 Fantasy Points
WR: Randy Moss, Vikings = 236 Fantasy Points
WR: Terrell Owens, 49ers = 226 Fantasy Points
WR: Marvin Harrison, Colts = 225 Fantasy Points
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs = 174 Fantasy Points
DEF: Baltimore Ravens (besides setting the league record for fewest points allowed, they generated 49 turnovers. Let me repeat that…49 TURNOVERS!)
K: Matt Stover, Ravens = 135 Fantasy Points

The What-If Teams

Tennessee Titans – The top team in terms of DVOA in 2000, Tennessee was an elite wide receiver short of being able to overcome the Ravens defense. This was the last great Eddie George season, and Steve McNair’s first year as a perenial MVP candidate.

Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars – Both of these clubs had the talent to make noise in the playoffs, but unfortunately they were trapped in the AFC Central with Baltimore and Tennessee. Jacksonville was particularly entertaining, with Jimmy Smith and Fred Taylor posting career seasons.

Minnesota Vikings – Minnesota didn’t dominate teams, but the stellar play of Randy Moss and Cris Carter pushed them to a 11-2 start. Daunte Culpepper looked like he would be one of the elite quarterbacks for the next decade, but unfortunately would only post two campaigns on par with 2000 for the rest of his career.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Looking back, it’s ridiculous that Shaun King was the quarterback of a team with such a loaded roster. Ultimately, Tony Dungy’s decision to stick with King for the 2000 season was the beginning of the end of his tenure in Tampa Bay.

Super Bowl XXXV

            The Giants had no chance against the dominant Ravens, and didn’t score an offensive touchdown. Besides two back-to-back kick return touchdowns, there isn’t anything particularly memorable that occurred in it.

Final Opinion

            You know 2000 was an off year of football when Trent Dilfer and Kerry Collins were the starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl. Normally weird years are impacted by star player injuries, but 2000 didn’t have that. The safest bet is to chalk up 2000 as an anomaly. We’ll definitely never see a season where a defense can dominate its way single-handedly to a title ever again.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (2/1-2/3)

10. California Institute of Technology Snaps 228-Game Baseball Losing Streak
            It had been nearly a decade since the nerds from Pasadena had won a game.

9. Antonio Silva Destroys Alistair Overeem

            It’s not often an under-card UFC fight makes the Top 10, but Silva locked up an appearance by screaming in Overeem’s face after he knocked him unconscious.

8. #3 Indiana Knocks Off #1 Michigan

            I dog on college basketball a lot, but it’s pretty cool that these teams played a game that actually mattered.

7. The GoDaddy.com Commerical

            I have a two word description for this one…awesomely gross. Based on published reports, the general population doesn’t agree.

 

6. Adrian Peterson Named 2012 NFL MVP

            In the rarest of occurrences, the NFL nailed every single major award winner on Saturday night.

5. Jonathan Ogden
4. Warren Sapp
3. Larry Allen
2. Cris Carter Make the Pro Football Hall of Fame
            This year’s class makes No Credentials feel super old, as all four of these players were guys that I used to put on my stacked Madden teams in the late ‘90s. Also props to Bill Parcells, whose memorable accomplishment will be what I appreciate him the most for. During his final head coaching stint, here is the list of players that he either drafted or picked up as undrafted rookies during his four years with the Cowboys.

DeMarcus Ware

Jason Witten
Tony Romo (undrafted free agent)
Miles Austin (ditto)
Jay Ratliff (a 7^th round draft pick)
Marion Barber (THE BARBARIAN)
Terrance Newman (sucked ass towards the end, but was a solid corner for years)
Chris Canty (didn’t blossom in Dallas, but was a valuable part of last year’s Super Bowl winning Giants)

1. In Spite Of Power Outage, Baltimore Ravens Win Super Bowl XLVII

            What looked like a runaway turned into a near epic collapse thanks to a 35-minute power outage that drained all of the Ravens momentum (I guess that’ll happen when your offense isn’t on the field for an hour and twenty minutes). Baltimore was the beneficiary of some poor play calling (running two fades when they needed a 2-point conversion and a score on fourth down doesn’t make any sense) and some refs swallowing the whistle (in defense of the zebras, you don’t call pass interference and give San Francisco a fresh set of downs on the 1-yard line. There was contact by both Michael Crabtree and the Ravens corner). All in all, this will go down as one the most memorable (and definitely most bizarre) Super Bowls of the last decade.

Super Bowl XLVII Prop Bets and Pick

            Here’s our favorite prop bets for tomorrow night’s game, with our official Super Bowl pick at the end.

Cross-Sport Bets

49ers Points (+3) over Blake Griffin’s Combined Points and Rebounds vs. Boston Celtics

            Griffin is averaging just under 19 and 9 for the season. I like San Francisco to at least score 25 points, if not a bunch more.

Joe Flacco Touchdown Passes (-115) Greater Than Kobe Bryant’s Number of 3-Point Field Goals Made

            At the time of this writing, Kobe hasn’t hit a 3 in his last six games. Furthermore, he hasn’t even attempted a long-range shot in two of the games, and only attempted one in two more. Remember this when Kobe goes 5 for 7 on Sunday from distance.

Lionel Messi Goals (-0.5) over Frank Gore Touchdowns

            Lionel Messi scored 4 goals in one game this past Sunday. Gore’s going to need to hit pay dirt twice to make this bet competitive.

Chris Bosh Points (-0.5) over Largest Lead of Super Bowl XLVII

            Bosh averages 17 a game, plus he’s making another trip to Toronto, which could mean he wants to put on a show for his former hometown fans. God (working through the body of Ray Lewis, which apparently was a side effect of his deer-antler spray purchase) will not allow this game to get out of hand.

Distance of First Touchdown Pass of Super Bowl XLVII (-6.5) over Steve Nash’s Total Assists

            Kobe Bryant is doing all the distributing in Laker-Land now. This is the easiest bet on the cross-sports board.
 

San Francisco 49ers Player Props

Colin Kaepernick Will Score a Rushing Touchdown (+115)

            Hard to believe we won’t have some “Kaepernicking” on Super Bowl Sunday.

Frank Gore Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

            San Francisco has done a masterful job of managing Gore’s carries all season. There won’t be any restrictions against Baltimore, a team that is vulnerable against the run.

LaMichael James Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (EVEN)

LaMichael James Will Score a Touchdown (+300)
            James started making an impact the last quarter of the regular season (remember his long-kickoff return after 28 straight Patriots’ points turned around a near collapse in December), and as mentioned in the previous prop, Baltimore is vulnerable against the run.

Randy Moss Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

            Randy Moss might not of been the greatest wide receiver of all-time, but no one was more feared. Think of him as the Barry Sanders of wide receivers. Even now opposing defenses still roll a safety to his side of the field for deep help.

Baltimore Ravens Player Props

Joe Flacco Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

            Flacco isn’t a stiff, even though he looks like one. I see at least one 3^rd and 4 that ends with Flacco scampering out of bounds with a gain of 5.

Ray Rice Receptions Over 3.5 (+120)

            Baltimore probably will have a hard time running the ball, but that won’t limit the Ravens from getting the ball to one of the best receiving backs in the league. I could see Rice hauling in five or six passes.

Jacoby Jones Will Score a Touchdown (+350)

            The only long-shot bet for a Ravens player to score that I like.
 

Super Bowl XLVII Game Props

Longest Touchdown of Super Bowl XLVII Over 45.5 (-115)

            Each team has electric return men, defenses that can generate turnovers, and plenty of playmakers on offense. It would be hard to believe we won’t see one long touchdown.

Total Sacks in Super Bowl XLVII Under 4.5 (-115)

            Both offensive lines are solid. Only way this goes over is if San Francisco jumps all over Baltimore and Flacco has to throw 55 times.

San Francisco 49ers Will Throw Challenge Flag First (-115)

            This shouldn’t be a newsflash for anyone, but Jim Harbaugh is a fantastic coach in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He is a little reckless sometimes with the challenge flag though.

One Quarter of Super Bowl XLVII Will Be Scoreless (+180)

            Both defenses are talented enough to combine for a scoreless quarter.

Novelty Props

Color of Gatorade Dumped on Winning Head Coach Will Be Red (+350)

            This will make sense when you get to my pick at the end of this column.

MVP of the Super Bowl Will Thank God First (EVEN)

            If you’re a supporter of the Ray Lewis, this will be your favorite bet on the board.

Alicia Keys Will Take Longer Than 2 Minutes and 5 Seconds to Sing National Anthem (-115)

            I couldn’t find a clip of Keys performing the anthem (this was a valuable scouting tool when Christina Aguilera botched the National Anthem a couple of years ago), but I see a long, dragged out, R & B version.

Jim Harbaugh Will Be First Coach Shown On Television After Opening Kickoff (-120)

            Sorry John, Jim is way more interesting.

No Credentials Prediction

49ers (-3.5) over Ravens

            San Francisco will dominate the line of scrimmage offensively, and create a couple of turnovers to slow down the Ravens. Giving Jim Harbaugh two weeks to come up with a game plan is dangerous.

San Francisco 38, Baltimore 28

Regular Season = 140-111-5

Postseason = 6-4

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (1/25-1/27)

10. Danica Patrick and Ricky Stenhouse Announce That They Are Dating
            I have high hopes for Stenhouse, so hopefully this doesn’t derail his career.

9. Juan Montoya Clinches Another Rolex 24 Win For Chip Ganassi

            I’m not emotionally invested in sports car racing (the cars are cool, but they get to spread out for my liking), but mentioning Montoya is the perfect excuse to show what happened to him last February at Daytona.

 

8. Lebron Celebrates $75,000 Half-Court Shot With a Fan

            Thanks to the lovely tax code, Michael Drysch will only get to keep $53,000 of it.

7. Saturday Night Live Mocks Ray Lewis

            The only thing this skit missed was a steroids reference.

 

6. Villanova Stuns #3 Syracuse

            Here is this week’s “Major College Basketball Upset That No Credentials Doesn’t Give A Shit About”, sponsored by VAGISIL.

5. Kobe Learns To Pass

            If this were still 2012, I’d say it was another sure sign of an impending apocalypse.
         
4. Northern Illinois Scores Four First Half Points In a Division I Men’s Basketball Game
            Thankfully, they exploded for 21 points in the second.

3. Ashley Wagner Wins U.S. Figure Skating Championship

            I don’t know where my life went wrong, but I watched roughly an hour of this event, and was thoroughly entertained.

2. Carmelo Drops 42 On the Hawks

            Anthony had been crushing the field goal percentage of my second fantasy basketball team for weeks, so Sunday’s explosion was much appreciated.

1. Celtics Outlast Heat in Double Overtime, Then Find Out Rondo Has Torn ACL
            A potentially season saving win was marred by the news that Rajon Rondo blew out his knee in Friday night’s double-overtime win over the Hawks.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (1/4-1/6)

10. Dwight Howard Rips Teammates
            Translation…Dwight thinks Kobe is a real asshole.

9. Browns Whiff in Attempt to Land Chip Kelly

            I can’t figure out how the hottest NFL coaching prospect would turn down the chance to coach a 29-year old second year pro quarterback.

8. Some Guy Named Alan Anderson Scores 27 Points For My Fantasy B-Ball Team

            You have to love it when you strike waiver wire gold.

7. United States Wins Gold at the World Junior Championships

            Incredibly, this wasn’t the best news of the weekend for American hockey fans.

6. Johnny Manziel Destroys Oklahoma

            Should we just cancel the 2013 college football season and give the national championship to Texas A&M right now?

5. Packers Dominate Ponder-less Vikings

            For a long time, I wondered what would happen if Joe Webb got to start in a big game. Sadly for Vikings’ fans, we found out.
          
4. Arian Foster Drags Texans Into Divisional Round
            Of the four bye week teams, none is more excited than the New England Patriots. They’ll deliver the knockout blow to the struggling Texans this weekend.

3. Holy Shit, the NHL is Back
            Like finding a $20 in the wash, hockey will return sometime after Martin Luther King Day. It’s hard to tell who’s more excited about it, Canada or the NBC Sports Network.

2. Mike Shanahan Tries to Sacrifice Robert Griffin III

            There’s no other way to put what happened Sunday afternoon in Washington. You can probably write off RGIII for at least half of the 2013 season.

1. Ray Lewis Wins Final Home Game

            Lewis delivered the goods, racking up 13 tackles in his final appearance in Baltimore. The Ravens will have to win two on the road to make it to the Super Bowl.

2012 AFC North Preview

     Here's the AFC North, aka "Two Old Teams, One Young One, and Another Crappy One, and a Pizza Place".

4. Cleveland Browns

2011 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North

2012 Schedule = PHI, @ CIN, BUF, @ BAL, @ NYG, CIN, @ IND, SD, BAL, BYE, @ DAL, PIT, @ OAK, KC, WAS, @ DEN, @ PIT

Franchise Players = T Joe Thomas, CB Joe Haden

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) 1-3, QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 1-22, T Mitchell Schwartz (California) 2-5

Outlook = If you’re wondering how the Brandon Weeden era will work out in Cleveland, look up how the Carolina Panthers did with Chris Weinke under center.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13

3. Baltimore Ravens

2011 Record = 12-4, First in AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship Game

2012 Schedule = CIN, @ PHI, NE, CLE, @ KC, DAL, @ HOU, BYE, @ CLE, OAK, @ PIT, @ SD, PIT, @ WAS, DEN, NYG, @ CIN

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith, T Michael Oher, C Matt Birk, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Bobbie Williams
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) 2-3

Outlook = The video above is the reason I’m so down on the Ravens this year. I don’t see this team rebounding from such a disappointing defeat. Sure there are still Hall of Famers on defense, but they are aging (watch Ray Lewis move laterally. He’s not as graceful as he used to be), and Joe Flacco doesn’t inspire much confidence at all. A breakout from him in his fifth season seems unlikely. It’s much more probable that he is what he has been the past two seasons, which is an average quarterback that can manage a game but do very little to win one. This becomes a problem when the Ravens decide to throw the ball 50 times in the game and forget to hand the ball to Ray Rice (who you know, is only the best all-around runningback on planet Earth right now). Throw in a brutal schedule (even though two of their first three are at home, they won’t be cakewalks), and you have all the makings for a disappointing year of football in Baltimore.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Cincinnati Bengals

2011 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ BAL, CLE, @ WAS, @ JAC, MIA, @ CLE, PIT, BYE, DEN, NYG, @ KC, OAK, @ SD, DAL, @ PIT, @ PHI, BAL

Franchise Players = QB Andy Dalton, WR A.J. Green, T Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, LB Rey Maualuga, LB Manny Lawson, CB Leon Hall, S Reggie Nelson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CB Jason Allen, CB Terrance Newman
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) 1-17, G Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) 1-27, DT Devon Still (Penn State) 2-21, DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) 3-30

Outlook = Not a lot of teams had as successful of a draft as the Bengals, which is hard to believe because they are the Bengals. Their fleecing of Oakland in the Carson Palmer enhanced an already talented young roster. A.J. Green appears to be on the verge of becoming a top-5 wide receiver, and Andy Dalton could go down as the best second round draft pick of the ‘10s. With their patty-cake stretch from weeks 2 through 6 (two games against the Browns, trips to Washington and Jacksonville, and a home date with Miami), and we could very easily be talking about a 5-1 or 6-0 football team when they face Pittsburgh at home in Week 7. That’s the cushion they will need to withstand a tougher second half slate.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
 

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2011 Record = 12-4, Second in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ DEN, NYJ, @ OAK, BYE, PHI, @ TEN, @ CIN, WAS, @ NYG, KC, BAL, @ CLE, @ BAL, SD, @ DAL, CIN, CLE

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB James Harrison, LB LaMarr Woodley, LB Lawrence Timmons, S Troy Polamalu

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = G David DeCastro (Stanford) 1-24, T Mike Adams (Ohio State) 2-24, DT Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) 4-14

Outlook = Pittsburgh’s draft haul may not be as impressive as Cincinnati’s but David DeCastro and Mike Adams should go along way in keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. With added time in the pocket, the dynamic duo of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown (here’s your dark horse pick for best receiving tandem in the NFL this year) will be even more lethal than they were a year ago. Expect the Steelers to ensure that they won’t start the playoffs on the road this January.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
 

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

2011 AFC North Preview

This is our first division that gets to play the entire NFC West. Blame inflated win projections for the top three teams on that.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

2010 Record = 4-12, 4^th in Division

Key Additions = LB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements
Key Losses = QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, CB Johnathan Joseph

Schedule = @ Browns, @ Broncos, 49ers, Bills, @ Jaguars, Colts, BYE, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Ravens, Browns, @ Steelers, Texans, @ Rams, Cardinals, Ravens

Real-Life Outlook = I don’t know exactly what the record is for teams that started a red-headed rookie at quarterback, but I feel like it’s probably not very good. Kudos to the folks down in Cincinnati for completely overturning the roster (except for the part where they haven’t moved Carson Palmer yet. Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks be worth more than quarterback who has no intention of playing for you ever again? Palmer’s value will only drop the longer he doesn’t play. Remember this when the Seahawks trade a sixth round pick for Palmer next season). The great Liam Neeson said in “Batman Begins”, “When a forest grows out of control, a purging fire is natural and necessary.” That quote definitely applies here. Cincinnati is going to be awful this season, but things are looking up for them.

Fantasy Outlook = Rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has the most potential of any Bengals players, but fellow rookie Andy Dalton (and his red hair) will hold Green back from being a fantasy monster this season. Green is currently ranked 31^st by the fantasy experts at ESPN, which makes him a fringe #3 receiver or bye-week sub (depending on the size of your league). Cedric Benson is coming off an eventful off-season, but should be drafted by the ninth round as a third RB option. Tight end Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be drafted, but monitor his performance the first couple of weeks to see if he clicks with Dalton. Rookie quarterbacks usually look for tight ends, so Gresham could be a solid PPR option. 

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Cleveland Browns

2010 Record = 5-11, 3^rd in Division

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Matt Roth, CB Eric Wright, S Abram Elam

Schedule = Bengals, @ Colts, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, @ Raiders, Seahawks, @ 49ers, @ Texans, Rams, Jaguars, @ Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Cardinals, @ Ravens, Steelers

Real-Life Outlook = Remember when Cleveland smashed New England last year during the first week of November just two weeks after winning in New Orleans? Somehow this team only won three other games the rest of the season. It would’ve been very easy for Cleveland to take Julio Jones with the fifth pick in the draft to give Colt McCoy a viable wide receiver, but I like how Cleveland shipped the pick to Atlanta for five extra draft picks. With Mike Holmgren running the show, Browns’ fans should have confidence that those picks will be used well. Look for Cleveland to be in a good place in 2014.

            With all that said, did you look at their schedule? Of their first eleven games, I’d give them at least a 40% chance of winning ten of them (their trip to Indianapolis being the one they’ll be heavy underdogs in). I could definitely see them starting the year 7-4 before losing their final five games (they play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during this stretch, with a trip to Arizona stuck in the middle). To make a long story short, if you want to bet the over on Cleveland’s regular season win total (on Sportsbook.com, their over/under is 6.5), you have No Credentials full endorsement.     
Fantasy Outlook = It’s not smart to talk about Peyton Hillis before we discuss The Madden Curse. For those not in the know, this has to do with the Madden video game that comes out every year. Ever since players were first placed on the cover, it’s been misfortune for whoever was pictured. Here’s a list of what the curse has done in 12 years. 

The Madden Curse took away any lateral agility Eddie George ever had.

The Madden Curse allowed Daunte Culpepper to set the record for most fumbles lost in a single season during the 2001 campaign. Then for good measure, The Madden Curse shredded both of his knees in 2005 and ’06.

The Madden Curse ended Marshall Faulk’s string of 1,000+ yard-rushing seasons. He retired two years after appearing on the cover in 2002.

The Madden Curse snapped Michael Vick’s leg in half during the 2003 pre-season.

The Madden Curse broke Ray Lewis’ wrist.

The Madden Curse first inflicted a sports hernia on Donovan McNabb, and then as a finishing move, tore his ACL.

The Madden Curse injured Shaun Alexander’s foot, causing him to miss six games the year after he won the league MVP.

The Madden Curse is responsible for Vince Young’s career missteps since his rookie year (if I typed everything that’s happened to him, this post would be an extra 1,500 words).

The Madden Curse coerced Brett Favre into sending a picture of his penis to Jenn Sterger.

The Madden Curse sprained Troy Polamalu’s MCL in the first game of the 2009 season, and then knocked him out of action again with a PCL injury. It’s interesting to note that Larry Fitzgerald was also on the cover with Polamalu that year, but survived. Apparently The Madden Curse can only knock out one player per season.

Finally, The Madden Curse forced Drew Brees to throw a career high 22 interceptions.

            More than anything else, his presence on the cover of “Madden NFL 12” alone is reason for me to avoid Peyton Hillis. It’s not logical, but I’m not betting against a curse until someone is on the cover and wins the Super Bowl the same season.

            To get back to the business of relevant fantasy advice, tight end Kellen Winslow is the only other Brown that should be drafted. He’s another solid late-round option at that position.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2010 Record = 12-4, 1^st in Division (Lost Super Bowl vs. Packers)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = None

Schedule = @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ Colts, @ Texans, Titans, Jaguars, @ Cardinals, Patriots, Ravens, @ Bengals, BYE, @ Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Browns

Real-Life Outlook = In the season immediately following Pittsburgh’s previous Super Bowl victories, they have failed to make the playoffs the following year. Perhaps coming off of a loss will make them a little less content, but I still think there will be speed bumps for them that will prevent Pittsburgh from winning the North. Maybe a weird home loss against Tennessee or Jacksonville sandwiched between odd road losses at Houston and Arizona. Despite the prediction of an uneven start, Pittsburgh easily has the weakest opposing schedule of any 2010 division winner. Barring significant injuries, there is no way they should lose any of their last five games. The weak schedule should be enough for Pittsburgh to land at least an AFC Wildcard spot.

Fantasy Outlook = Ben Roethlisberger will be either the 8^th or 9^th quarterback taken in your fantasy draft. You’re going to want to draft a decent back up, as Big Ben is prone to holding on to the ball to long and taking a beating. Rashard Mendenhall is a late first or early second round pick at runningback. I have a hunch that Pittsburgh is going to run the ball more this season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mendenhall finish with 1,500 rushing yards. Mike Wallace is the AFC’s answer to DeSean Jackson. With Hines Ward getting older (and slower), expect Wallace to set a new career high in receptions. Ward is a fringe #3 in a 12-team league, but probably should be the fourth or fifth wide out you draft. Pittsburgh is one of the few fantasy defenses that you will be able to start every week of the season. 

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. Baltimore Ravens

2010 Record = 12-4, 2^nd in Division (Lost in Divisional Round @ Steelers)

Key Additions = WR Lee Evans, FB Vonta Leach, S Bernard Pollard, RB Ricky Williams
Key Losses = RB Willis McGahee, T Jared Gaither, CB Josh Wilson, S Dawan Landry, TE Todd Heap

Schedule = Steelers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Jets, BYE, Texans, @ Jaguars, Cardinals, @ Steelers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @ Browns, Colts, @ Chargers, Browns, @ Bengals

Real-Life Outlook = The addition of Lee Evans makes a huge difference for the Ravens offense. While he isn’t as dynamic as Mike Wallace, he still is the first legitimate deep threat Baltimore has had since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. If Flacco and Evans click early, running lanes will open up for Ray Rice, and underneath patterns will be more accessible for Anquan Boldin. Baltimore’s secondary was leaky last season, but an improved offense will allow them to play with the lead more often. With their front seven able to pin their ears back and attack opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore should bounce back as a top-5 defensive unit. 

Fantasy Outlook = It’s not all that often that a fullback is discussed in terms of fantasy, but that’s what I’m going to do here in relation to runningback Ray Rice. Baltimore was able to sign former Texans fullback Vonta Leach. Avid fantasy players may recall that Leach was Arian Foster’s lead blocker last season. Foster also just happened to be the top scoring player in fantasy football last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Rice gets a bump with a better fullback (and better offensive line play). If you can get him at any point after the sixth pick in your draft, you’ll be very fortunate.
            None of the other Ravens are elite fantasy options. Joe Flacco was a sleeper last season, but his disappointing 2010 drops him to the 15^th ranked quarterback on Yahoo!. It would be best to use him in a platoon situation, or as a back-up to Michael Vick or Tony Romo. Anquan Boldin got off to hot start, but disappeared during the final four games of 2010 (only 8 receptions for 67 yards during the fantasy playoffs). The presence of Lee Evans should help a bit, but keep in mind that last season was only the third time in Boldin’s career that he appeared in all sixteen games. Lee Evans should be drafted as a back-up only. His addition to the team will help the offense, but don’t expect Evans to have a monster season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4


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