Week 5 NFL Picks

Keeping the analysis short this week (real life has been a bitch this week). This is the first week of byes, which means we don’t have Baltimore, Dallas, Washington, Cleveland, St. Louis, and the future home of Andrew Luck, the Miami Dolphins, in action. Losing crap the last three teams makes this a tough week, as those are usually decent squads to bet against on a weekly basis.

COLTS (-2) over Chiefs

One of only a few opportunities Indianapolis will have to get a win this season.

Indianapolis 14, Kansas City 10

Confidence Score = 8

VIKINGS (-3) over Cardinals

Ditto.

Minnesota 20, Arizona 10

Confidence Score = 11

Eagles (-3) over BILLS

If Philadelphia has any sort of chance of saving the season, they win this game.

Philadelphia 34, Buffalo 24

Confidence Score = 12

Raiders (+5) over TEXANS

R.I.P. Al Davis.

Oakland 20, Houston 17

Confidence Score = 7

Saints (-6.5) over PANTHERS

Cam Newton is due for a stinker.

New Orleans 30, Carolina 13

Confidence Score = 13
 
JAGUARS (+1) over Bengals
I like Cincinnati, but don’t trust them enough to win on the road.

Jacksonville 16, Cincinnati 14

Confidence Score = 6

STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Read analysis of Eagles-Bills and substitute “Pittsburgh” for “Philadelphia”.

Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 13

Confidence Score = 14

GIANTS (-9.5) over Seahawks

How many cream puffs in a row will the Giants play?

New York 31, Seattle 7

Confidence Score = 15

49ERS (-3) over Buccaneers

Tough game to gauge, but I’ll downgrade Tampa Bay because of cross-country travel after a Monday night game.

San Francisco 27, Tampa Bay 21

Confidence Score = 5

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Jets

Was planning on picking the Jets to cover (the game opened at Pats –9), but the return of Aaron Hernandez to the Patriots offense will give them enough fire power to win by 10.

New England 27, New York 17

Confidence Score = 10

Chargers (-3.5) over BRONCOS

This line should be at least –7.5. Seems too easy, which probably means Denver will keep it within a field goal.

San Diego 31, Denver 14

Confidence Score = 16

Packers (-6) over FALCONS

Hardest game of the week to call. I’ll bank on Atlanta being mediocre this year, and Green Bay putting on a show in their first Sunday night appearance of the season.

Green Bay 37, Atlanta 28

Confidence Score = 4

Bears (+5) over LIONS

I like Detroit to win, but not by much.

Detroit 28, Chicago 27

Confidence Score = 9

Last Week Record = 10-6

LW Top-5 Picks = 4-1
Season Record = 34-26-4
S Top-5 Picks = 11-7