It’s
that time of year again…No Credentials Nerd Fest! Incredibly, this will be the
fourth year we’ve done a one man mock draft (where I make the picks for every
team in a fictitious ten-team league). Hopefully, I won’t have a second
straight mock draft ruined by Influenza, so we’ll be able to cover 250 players
before fantasy draft/auction season.
Before we
begin diving into the picks, I decided to list my general draft theory for all
of the positions. Besides giving anyone who is in the same fantasy league as me
this year pre-draft knowledge of how I value players, it will save me from
having to explain why Clayton Kershaw or Yu Darvish is ranked so low in my mock
draft (spoiler alert!). In turn, this will save time so we can discuss each
individual players outlook more as opposed to repeating over and over why I
wait on outfielders (another spoiler alert!). You can choose to agree or
disagree with how I look to build fantasy teams, but if it gets you thinking,
that’s all I’m asking for.
Catcher – Far and away the weakest position in
fantasy this year, but there really isn’t an elite option that would be wise to
reach on. Buster Posey will go in the fourth or fifth round of your fantasy
draft (or fetch a high price in an auction), but is that draft spot really
worth it for .294-15-72 (his batting average, dingers, and RBIs from a season
ago)? My preference here would be to wait on the position, and
gamble on getting career years from guys like Salvador Perez or Matt Wieters.
Brian McCann also is a fascinating player that more than likely will go
sometime after the tenth round.
When I Want to Draft One - Late.
First Base – There was a time during the steroids era
that it would be very difficult to end up with a fantasy first basemen that didn’t
hit 30+ homers, but alas times have changed, and first base arguably has the
least amount of depth it has ever had. Of guys eligible for first base in
standard Yahoo leagues this year, only Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin
Encarnacion, David Ortiz, and Mark Trumbo topped that number last season.
Goldschmidt is the clear number three player on my board after Miguel Cabrera
and Mike Trout are off the board. Davis deserves to end up in the top-10 as
well. After that, you’re left with a group of players you can’t totally trust.
It would be reasonable to expect Prince Fielder to once again deliver elite
power numbers in Texas, but even that feels iffy at this stage in his career.
When I Want to Draft One – Either one of the top-5
options, or wait until every other team has filled the spot.
Second Base – Similar to catcher, second base isn’t
very deep, but there are a few elite options at the top of the rankings.
Robinson Cano is a little difficult to forecast, but I feel better about his
possible production knowing that he put up a .314-27-107 line hitting in the
middle of a putrid, injury-ridden Yankees lineup. Jason Kipnis is the best bet
to deliver the best all-around stat line, as something along the lines of
.280-20-90-90-30 is possible. Dustin Pedroia might be asked to run more for an
Ellsbury-less Red Sox lineup, which will boost his numbers. Ian Kinsler is an
interesting buy-low candidate, as he’s dropped from a player typically ranked
in the top-30 over the past few years to 71 in Yahoo’s preseason ranks. Of any
player that could go in the sixth or seventh round, he presents the most
obvious potential to swing fantasy leagues.
When I want to Draft One – As soon as the value of the
pick (or auction price) equals the value of the player on the board. Anywhere
from the first to fifteenth round is where I’ll be drafting second basemen this
year.
Third Base – The hot corner has the most variety of
any position, as it hosts the most valuable infielder in fantasy (Miguel
Cabrera), another group of four players behind him that you’d love to start on
your team, and then a mix of injury prone guys and young stars waiting to break
out. I favor filling my infield spots first on my fantasy teams, so I’ll
probably reach for one of the top-5 ranked guys in every draft I do, but it
would be logical to wait until the eighth round and draft Pedro Alvarez or Josh
Donaldson.
When I Want to Draft One – Go ahead and re-read the
previous sentence if that didn’t sink in enough for you.
Short Stop – Shortstop is kind of a train wreck, as
there is more injury risk here than any other spot on the diamond. If you could
guaruantee that Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes would give you
150 games played this year, they would all be first round picks. I think one of
these three stays healthy, and will likely be the most owned player on fantasy
championship teams this season. Ian Desmond and Jean Segura are closely ranked
this pre-season, but I’m taking Segura over Desmond all day. I’d be fine ending
up with Elvis Andrus (quietly netted 42 stolen bases last year) or Starlin
Castro (too talented to play as poorly as he did in 2013 for a second straight
year) somewhere around the ninth or tenth rounds if I were gun shy about taking
one of the three lottery tickets.
When I Want to Draft One – I’ll be willing
to bite on Tulo or Hanley earlier than most, so if I’m caught with the dreaded
late-first/early-second combo, one of those two are ending up on my team.
Otherwise, I’ll draft Elvis Andrus like I’ve done on at least one fantasy team
for the last four years.
Outfielders – Our only offensive position
with significant depth, how early you take them will ultimately depend on how
much you value position scarcity. For example, Hunter Pence put up 27 dingers
and 22 steals last year, and he’s currently a sixth round pick. This is
ultimately why I’ll rank Miguel Cabrera first instead of Mike Trout (in redraft
leagues anyway). It’s not a knock on Trout. It’s just that the difference in
production between the tenth best first baseman and Cabrera is much greater
than the difference between Trout and the tenth best outfielder. Until my
infield is filled, I’m not taking an outfielder unless his production is
significantly greater than anyone else on the board.
When I Want to Draft Them – I’ll take them
as the draft or auction dictates, but if there’s a debate between taking an
infielder or outfielder, the infielder will win every time.
Starting Pitchers – If you’ve gotten this
far into this column (no small feat!), I’ll assume that you know Clayton
Kershaw is pretty good at pitching. This doesn’t change the fact that if you
draft him fifth in your fantasy draft (which is where Yahoo has him ranked),
you’re an idiot. For grins and giggles, here are some 2013 stat lines for
assorted pitchers, with their Yahoo preseason position rank listed after it.
Anibal Sanchez, Tigers – 14 Wins, 202 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.15
WHIP, #15 ranked SP
Mike Minor, Braves – 13 Wins, 181 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP,
#25 ranked SP
Justin Masterson, Indians – 14 Wins, 195 Ks, 3.45 ERA, 1.20
WHIP, #50 ranked SP
Sure those
weren’t Kershaw’s numbers, but still pretty solid. The real issue here is the
value of not taking a first round quality hitter and replacing him with a
lesser option. If you’re taking Kershaw in the middle of the first, you’re
passing on guys like Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Davis, and Robinson
Cano. I’d even put Yu Darvish (who’s ranked 15) into this
discussion as a guy you can’t take because of the offensive talent you’re
missing out on. I’d much rather start building my pitching staff in the fourth
round and then go from there.
When I Want to Draft Them – In a perfect world, I’ll have
two of them through the first ten rounds, and then load up on starters the rest
of the way.
Closers – We’ll keep the closer conversation
short…saves always pop up during the season. Do not freak out if you come out
of the draft with only two or three closers. Do your homework, stay on top of
bullpen situations, and by the middle of the summer you could have a full slate
of five bullpen guys racking up saves for you.
So
there you have it. Keep this post in mind as you read through the following
mock draft rounds in this space over the next month or so.
