2014 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft, Round 1

            Here are the first ten players No Credentials picked in our fourth annual mock draft. If you missed the preview of this mock, click here.

 



1-1 = Miguel Cabrera, 1B-3B, Detroit Tigers

2014 Projection = .328 AVG, 44 HRs, 127 RBIs, 103 Rs, 3 SBs
            He’s taken over Albert Pujols’ place as best hitter in the game, and with the addition of Ian Kinsler, could have even more RBI opportunities this year. Keeper league owners do need to keep in mind that Cabrera will be playing at first this year, so he’s not a long term option at third anymore.

1-2 = Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2014 Projection = .303 AVG, 27 HRs, 87 RBIs, 118 Rs, 39 SBs
            Unquestionably the most valuable player in keeper league drafts or auctions, we dropped Trout below Miggy because of the lower RBI potential. I could be talked into moving Trout up to first if I knew he was going to hit third in the Angels lineup and still get the green light to run. Regardless, he’s the best option on the board if you’re looking for good to elite production in the standard hitting categories.

1-3 = Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks

2014 Projection = .299 AVG, 34 HRs, 117 RBIs, 102 Rs, 16 SBs
            Goldschmidt’s 2013 stat line reminds me of an old school Jeff Bagwell year from the mid-90s. I’d be willing to wager on him eclipsing 40 dingers this year, and if you took him first in your fantasy draft, you wouldn’t be totally crazy.

1-4 = Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 23 HRs, 104 RBIs, 97 Rs, 7 SBs
            I’ve gone back and forth on this several times since Cano signed with Seattle (and still might change my opinion multiple times before the season starts), but ultimately I don’t think Cano will experience a dramatic drop off in production. One needs to remember that it was a not a typically stacked Yankees offense last year that Cano was hitting in the middle of. With increased production from some of Seattle’s younger players (I’m looking at you Justin Smoak), Cano could actually find himself in a better situation to produce.

1-5 = Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles

2014 Projection = .282 AVG, 47 HRs, 127 RBIs, 98 Rs, 3 SBs
            While it would be foolish to guaruantee that Davis will exceed last year’s home run total, his advanced metrics say he shouldn’t experience any significant regression. A few of his dingers from last year might morph into doubles, but I’ll still sign off on him delivering elite power numbers hitting in the middle of a solid Orioles lineup.

1-6 = Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

2014 Projection = .288 AVG, 28 HRs, 80 RBIs, 88 Rs, 16 SBs
            This feels like a slight reach (mostly because it is), but sooner rather than later Harper is going to deliver a hammer of the god’s fantasy season. The percentages say all three of the next outfielders will have better seasons, but none of them have the ceiling Harper has.

1-7 = Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies

2014 Projection = .300 AVG, 33 HRs, 88 RBIs, 88 Rs, 24 SBs
            I’ve written a paragraph in Cargo’s player write-up the previous three years about how I don’t like to draft players like him because of their high strikeout totals and low walk rates. Well, all Gonzalez has done is produce elite fantasy numbers year in and year out. It’s time to award him for consistency.

1-8 = Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

2014 Projection = .315 AVG, 30 HRs, 93 RBIs, 102 Rs, 24 SBs
            The centerpiece of an up and coming Pirates team, ultimately the lack of firepower in the Pirates lineup is what has us ranking McCutchen so low (both ESPN and Yahoo have him ranked in the top-5). If you have the chance to draft him with the eighth pick, you should be ecstatic.

1-9 = Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

2014 Projection = .273 AVG, 30 HRs, 98 RBIs, 89 Rs, 18 SBs
            Ryan Braun is an asshole, which normally isn’t a favorable character trait, but in this case it is. Most players dealing with fan backlash from being caught doping crumble (Rafael Palmeiro, a TECMO Super Baseball favorite, is a prime example), but Braun already dealt with this in 2012. All he did that year was win the NL MVP. It won’t be shocking if he drops into the second round in numerous fantasy leagues, but there’s still a fair chance he delivers top-5 value at the end of the season.

1-10 = Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2014 Projection = 20 Ws, 235 Ks, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
            Kershaw has separated himself as the most dominant starting pitcher in the game, and pitching on a loaded Dodgers roster, there is no reason that any other pitcher should come off the board before him. Somewhere around the end of the first or early second round is where I’d be comfortable taking him.

2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guidelines

            It’s that time of year again…No Credentials Nerd Fest! Incredibly, this will be the fourth year we’ve done a one man mock draft (where I make the picks for every team in a fictitious ten-team league). Hopefully, I won’t have a second straight mock draft ruined by Influenza, so we’ll be able to cover 250 players before fantasy draft/auction season.
            Before we begin diving into the picks, I decided to list my general draft theory for all of the positions. Besides giving anyone who is in the same fantasy league as me this year pre-draft knowledge of how I value players, it will save me from having to explain why Clayton Kershaw or Yu Darvish is ranked so low in my mock draft (spoiler alert!). In turn, this will save time so we can discuss each individual players outlook more as opposed to repeating over and over why I wait on outfielders (another spoiler alert!). You can choose to agree or disagree with how I look to build fantasy teams, but if it gets you thinking, that’s all I’m asking for.   

Catcher – Far and away the weakest position in fantasy this year, but there really isn’t an elite option that would be wise to reach on. Buster Posey will go in the fourth or fifth round of your fantasy draft (or fetch a high price in an auction), but is that draft spot really worth it for .294-15-72 (his batting average, dingers, and RBIs from a season ago)? My preference here would be to wait on the position, and gamble on getting career years from guys like Salvador Perez or Matt Wieters. Brian McCann also is a fascinating player that more than likely will go sometime after the tenth round.

When I Want to Draft One - Late.

First Base – There was a time during the steroids era that it would be very difficult to end up with a fantasy first basemen that didn’t hit 30+ homers, but alas times have changed, and first base arguably has the least amount of depth it has ever had. Of guys eligible for first base in standard Yahoo leagues this year, only Chris Davis, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, and Mark Trumbo topped that number last season. Goldschmidt is the clear number three player on my board after Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout are off the board. Davis deserves to end up in the top-10 as well. After that, you’re left with a group of players you can’t totally trust. It would be reasonable to expect Prince Fielder to once again deliver elite power numbers in Texas, but even that feels iffy at this stage in his career.

When I Want to Draft One – Either one of the top-5 options, or wait until every other team has filled the spot.

Second Base – Similar to catcher, second base isn’t very deep, but there are a few elite options at the top of the rankings. Robinson Cano is a little difficult to forecast, but I feel better about his possible production knowing that he put up a .314-27-107 line hitting in the middle of a putrid, injury-ridden Yankees lineup. Jason Kipnis is the best bet to deliver the best all-around stat line, as something along the lines of .280-20-90-90-30 is possible. Dustin Pedroia might be asked to run more for an Ellsbury-less Red Sox lineup, which will boost his numbers. Ian Kinsler is an interesting buy-low candidate, as he’s dropped from a player typically ranked in the top-30 over the past few years to 71 in Yahoo’s preseason ranks. Of any player that could go in the sixth or seventh round, he presents the most obvious potential to swing fantasy leagues.

When I want to Draft One – As soon as the value of the pick (or auction price) equals the value of the player on the board. Anywhere from the first to fifteenth round is where I’ll be drafting second basemen this year.

Third Base – The hot corner has the most variety of any position, as it hosts the most valuable infielder in fantasy (Miguel Cabrera), another group of four players behind him that you’d love to start on your team, and then a mix of injury prone guys and young stars waiting to break out. I favor filling my infield spots first on my fantasy teams, so I’ll probably reach for one of the top-5 ranked guys in every draft I do, but it would be logical to wait until the eighth round and draft Pedro Alvarez or Josh Donaldson.

When I Want to Draft One – Go ahead and re-read the previous sentence if that didn’t sink in enough for you.

Short Stop – Shortstop is kind of a train wreck, as there is more injury risk here than any other spot on the diamond. If you could guaruantee that Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, or Jose Reyes would give you 150 games played this year, they would all be first round picks. I think one of these three stays healthy, and will likely be the most owned player on fantasy championship teams this season. Ian Desmond and Jean Segura are closely ranked this pre-season, but I’m taking Segura over Desmond all day. I’d be fine ending up with Elvis Andrus (quietly netted 42 stolen bases last year) or Starlin Castro (too talented to play as poorly as he did in 2013 for a second straight year) somewhere around the ninth or tenth rounds if I were gun shy about taking one of the three lottery tickets.

When I Want to Draft One – I’ll be willing to bite on Tulo or Hanley earlier than most, so if I’m caught with the dreaded late-first/early-second combo, one of those two are ending up on my team. Otherwise, I’ll draft Elvis Andrus like I’ve done on at least one fantasy team for the last four years.

Outfielders – Our only offensive position with significant depth, how early you take them will ultimately depend on how much you value position scarcity. For example, Hunter Pence put up 27 dingers and 22 steals last year, and he’s currently a sixth round pick. This is ultimately why I’ll rank Miguel Cabrera first instead of Mike Trout (in redraft leagues anyway). It’s not a knock on Trout. It’s just that the difference in production between the tenth best first baseman and Cabrera is much greater than the difference between Trout and the tenth best outfielder. Until my infield is filled, I’m not taking an outfielder unless his production is significantly greater than anyone else on the board.

When I Want to Draft Them – I’ll take them as the draft or auction dictates, but if there’s a debate between taking an infielder or outfielder, the infielder will win every time.

Starting Pitchers – If you’ve gotten this far into this column (no small feat!), I’ll assume that you know Clayton Kershaw is pretty good at pitching. This doesn’t change the fact that if you draft him fifth in your fantasy draft (which is where Yahoo has him ranked), you’re an idiot. For grins and giggles, here are some 2013 stat lines for assorted pitchers, with their Yahoo preseason position rank listed after it.

Anibal Sanchez, Tigers – 14 Wins, 202 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, #15 ranked SP

Mike Minor, Braves – 13 Wins, 181 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, #25 ranked SP
Justin Masterson, Indians – 14 Wins, 195 Ks, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, #50 ranked SP

            Sure those weren’t Kershaw’s numbers, but still pretty solid. The real issue here is the value of not taking a first round quality hitter and replacing him with a lesser option. If you’re taking Kershaw in the middle of the first, you’re passing on guys like Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez, Chris Davis, and Robinson Cano. I’d even put Yu Darvish (who’s ranked 15) into this discussion as a guy you can’t take because of the offensive talent you’re missing out on. I’d much rather start building my pitching staff in the fourth round and then go from there.

When I Want to Draft Them – In a perfect world, I’ll have two of them through the first ten rounds, and then load up on starters the rest of the way.

Closers – We’ll keep the closer conversation short…saves always pop up during the season. Do not freak out if you come out of the draft with only two or three closers. Do your homework, stay on top of bullpen situations, and by the middle of the summer you could have a full slate of five bullpen guys racking up saves for you.

 
            So there you have it. Keep this post in mind as you read through the following mock draft rounds in this space over the next month or so.