30. Charlotte Bobcats
Top 100 Players = NoneProjects = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, C Bismack Biyombo
Outlook = Kidd-Gilchrist is a nice building block, but it’s going to take a couple of more before this team is remotely competitive. Expect them to be one of two teams with the best odds at the number one pick at next May’s draft lottery.
29. Orlando Magic
Top 100 Players = SG Arron Afflalo (80)Projects = C Nikola Vucevic
Outlook = Experts gave Orlando a bunch of shit for what they received back in the Dwight Howard trade, but I’ll go in the opposite direction. What is the point of acquiring solid, mid-level players and setting yourself up to be at best a #5 seed every year, when instead you can bottom out and have a chance at acquiring a franchise player in the draft? For the long-term, it makes sense to assemble an awful team over a mediocre one. They did a decent enough job dumping salary. Players like Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick will have trade value for contending teams (Hedo Turkoglu though…not so much), which they can receive expiring contracts and more draft picks in return. I’ll sign off on the long-term plan of the Orlando Magic.
28. Detroit Pistons
Top 100 Players = C Greg Monroe (49)Projects = PG Brandon Knight, PF Andre Drummond
Outlook = Detroit is not going anywhere until Joe Dumars is removed from the front office. If Andre Drummond is Hasheem Thabeet 2.0, that might be the nail in the coffin for his employment.
27. Washington Wizards
Top 100 Players = C Nene (52), PG John Wall (55)Projects = SG Bradley Beal, PF Jan Vesely
Outlook = A healthy John Wall would bump the Wizards somewhere in the 20-24 range, but his injury to start the first month or two of the season is a killer. Perhaps sucking wouldn’t be such a bad idea, as Washington is a small forward short of a very solid foundation.
26. Toronto Raptors
Top 100 Players = PG Kyle Lowry (51), C Andrea Bargnani
(58), PG Jose Calderon (96)Projects = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Ed Davis, C Jonas Valanciunas
Outlook = Toronto still needs to make a move (you aren’t trotting Lowry and Calderon out on the court together) before we can fully judge the long-term outlook of this team.
25. Phoenix Suns
Top 100 Players = C Marcin Gortat (57), PF Luis Scola
(68), PG Goran Dragic (83)Projects = PG Kendall Marshall, SF Michael Beasley
24. Sacramento Kings
Top 100 Players = C DeMarcus Cousins (42), SG Tyreke
Evans (69)Projects = PG Jimmer Fredette, PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Thomas Robinson
Outlook = With the exception of Cousins (who if he keeps his head on straight, should become the most dominant scoring big man in the league within the next two years), this team is full of guys who could be the third or fourth best players on a playoff team given the right situation. Unfortunately, Sacramento does not qualify as the right situation. Ultimately, what the club decides to do with Tyreke Evans will determine the long-term trajectory of the Kings. He’s been a ball-stopper who hasn’t progressed at all since a promising rookie season. Evans is the classic player who is over qualified to be a sixth man, but not good enough to be your franchise guy. The wise move would be to ship Evans to a contender in need of scoring wing players (Chicago Bulls? Denver Nuggets? Utah Jazz?) and continue to build around Cousins. We’ll see what they do when the trade deadline nears.
23. Houston Rockets
Top 100 Players = SG Kevin Martin (76), PG Jeremy Lin
(78), C Omer Asik (99)Projects = SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Royce White
Outlook = Houston’s main objective during the off-season was to be involved in the Dwight Howard trade, either obtaining Howard or facilitating the trade to get another franchise player. Incredibly, Houston not only didn’t get Howard, but also had to watch Andrew Bynum end up in Philadelphia. There are still plenty of assets left, so expect Houston to try to bottom out and clear cap space for the summer of 2013.
22. Utah Jazz
Top 100 Players = C Al Jefferson (44), PF Paul Millsap
(53), PF Derrick Favors (89)Projects = SG Alec Burks, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Enes Kanter
Outlook = It’s a slight problem when the three best players on your team can’t be on the court together at the same time. Even more troubling, their best project, Enes Kanter, can’t roll with more than one of those players either. If I was put in charge of the Jazz for one day, I’m shipping Jefferson and Millsap out of town and rolling with the kids.
21. Minnesota Timberwolves
Top 100 Players = PF Kevin Love (7), PG Ricky Rubio (47),
SF Andrei Kirilenko (79)Projects = SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
Outlook = There isn't a bigger dissapointing development in the NBA preseason than Kevin Love's broken hand. Minnesota was poised to break out after finally ditching some dead weight (bye-bye Michael Beasley) and adding an important glue-guy (AK47) that the Timberwolves have never had since Kevin Garnett left for Boston. If Derrick Williams can finally show some life, there's a chance that the Timberwolves can weather the storm and stay within reach of a playoff spot, but odds are Minnesota will spend one more year in the lottery before making the playoff leap in 2014.
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Top 100 Players = PG Kyrie Irving (22), PF Anderson Varejao (74)
Projects = SG Dion Waiters, PF Tristan Thompson, C Tyler Zeller
Outlook = During the 2011 NBA Draft, the main topic of conversation was the lack of a franchise player. The experts were wrong. Kyrie Irving exceeded all reasonable expectations in a spectacular rookie campaign, even having the Cavaliers in playoff contention until Anderson Varejao was lost for the season. The sooner Dion Waiters (who’s looked solid so far in preseason) and Tristan Thompson get up to speed, the sooner Cleveland will return to the playoffs.
19. New Orleans Hornets
Top 100 Players = SG Eric Gordon (38), C Ryan Anderson
(50), PF Anthony Davis (62)Projects = SG Austin Rivers, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Outlook = For all the hoopla over the controversial Chris Paul trade, New Orleans came out smelling like roses. Anthony Davis will be a Kevin Garnett like presence for the Hornets for the next decade. Eric Gordon resigned, and while health is always a concern with him (I drafted him in the third round of my fantasy draft last year, so I know this better than most), he has the potential to be the best 2-guard in the league. While not a sure thing, if Austin Rivers can somehow develop into a Russell Westbrook-like point guard, New Orleans suddenly has one of the strongest foundations in the league. Short term, a lack of big bodies should keep them out of the playoffs (Ryan Anderson is a terrific 3-point shooter who can stretch a defense, but his defensive ability in the post lives much to be desired), but the future is bright. By stock in the 2014-15 Hornets.
18. Milwaukee Bucks
Top 100 Players = SG Monta Ellis (46), PG Brandon
Jennings (61), PF Ersan Ilyasova (72)Projects = SG Doron Lamb, PF John Henson
Outlook = Golden State confirmed over the past three seasons that an under-sized backcourt with Monta Ellis as one of the components will not get you to the playoffs, which makes it all the more curious that they shipped out Andrew Bogut to pair Ellis with Brandon Jennings. They’ll win their share or run-and-gun shootouts, but the Bucks best-case scenario this year is an eighth seed.
17. Portland Trail Blazers
Top 100 Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge (20), SF Nicolas
Batum (63)Projects = PG Damian Lillard, PF J.J. Hickson
Outlook = Hard to believe that the Trail Blazers were favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs after they completely imploded last season. LaMarcus Aldridge is a legitimate 20 PPG scorer, but unless Batum or Lillard breaks out, it’s hard see where other baskets will come from on this team.
16. Dallas Mavericks
Top 100 Players = PF Dirk Nowitzki (11), C Elton Brand
(85), SG O.J. Mayo (90), SF Shawn Marion (92), PG Darren Collison (98)Projects = PG Rodrigue Beaubois, PF Brandon Wright
Outlook = Knees that repeatedly swell are not a good thing, but that’s what Dirk Nowitzki has been dealing with for the past few months (QUICK TANGENT ALERT: Kobe Bryant went to Germany last off-season to have platelet’s injected into his knee. Isn’t that where Dirk Nowitzki is from? You’re telling me he couldn’t have gotten the Kobe treatment at a discount price?) He’s going to miss the first month of the season. There are enough pieces here to keep the team within range of a playoff spot, but if Dirk’s absence lingers into January, the Mavericks will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
15. Golden State Warriors
Top 100 Players = PG Stephen Curry (40), C Andrew Bogut
(45), PF David Lee (59)Projects = SG Klay Thompson, SF Harrison Barnes
Outlook = What’s the greatest “if” statement in the NBA right now? It’s “if” Stephen Curry can stay healthy. “If” he does, he has two legitimate big men (and amazingly, one that can actually play defense) and two exciting wing players (No Credentials likes Harrison Barnes in Golden State. He’ll flourish “if” Curry stays healthy). The one downer on this whole argument is that Andrew Bogut isn’t exactly a model of health either. If he goes down, Golden State reverts to a “lose 120-112” style of play that will leave them short of a playoff berth. File Golden State away as an intriguing sleeper team if they can get a few lucky breaks.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Top 100 Players = C Al Horford (30), PF Josh Smith (31),
PG Lou Williams (88)Projects = PG Jeff Teague
Outlook = You’re opinion of the 2012-13 prospects of the Hawks depends on your feelings on Joe Johnson. If you think that Johnson was their only player that could get his own shot, you’re downgrading them. If you think Johnson was a ball-stopper that limited the output of his teammates, you’ll nominate Atlanta as a “Ewing-Theory” candidate. I think their starting lineup will be just fine, but the lack of depth will prevent Atlanta from snagging too high of a seed in the East.
13. New York Knicks
Top 100 Players = SF Carmelo Anthony (17), C Tyson
Chandler (23), PF Amar’e Stoudemire (43)Projects = SG Iman Shumpert
Outlook = New York tested out an interesting theory at the start of last season. What would happen when you went into a season with no proven guards? The answer was a team that was mediocre until Jeremy Lin bailed them out for a month. Entering 2012-13, the Knicks face similar issues. Iman Shumpert was an effective guard on defense, but could very well be ineffective all year coming off a blown out knee in their first round loss to Miami last spring. The Knicks long-term outlook would be much brighter if they could amnesty Amar’e Stoudemire, but they burned that on Chauncey Billups last December. If New York can find someone to play perimeter defense, they’ll have a chance at a top-4 seed, but until that occurs, expect another quick round one playoff loss.
12. Chicago Bulls
Top 100 Players = PG Derrick Rose (5), C Joakim Noah
(36), SF Luol Deng (37), PF Carlos Boozer (67), PF Taj Gibson (82)Projects = PG Marquis Teague
Outlook = This may seem obvious to the hardcore NBA fan, but for those that aren’t, Chicago would be at least the fourth ranked team in this pole if they had a healthy Derrick Rose. As it stands, Rose could be back as early as January, or may miss the entire season. If it looks like he’s going to sit, they would be wise to cut some dead weight. Boozer has been a major disappointment, and unless they can find a sucker to take on his contract, he should be amnestied to make room for Taj Gibson in the starting lineup. Without Rose, Chicago will have to rely on defense to keep games in the 70s and 80s. That formula can work in the regular season, but it won’t fly in the playoffs.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Top 100 Players = C Andrew Bynum (13), PG Jrue Holiday
(73), SF Thaddeus Young (91)Projects = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes
Outlook = Who should the Miami Heat fear the most in the Eastern Conference? This team. A whole bunch of shit needs to go right, but if it does, this team will be able to hang with the Heat. There is no one on Miami that can guard Andrew Bynum (he just needs to stay healthy, which he’s done once his entire career). Evan Turner doesn’t have the ceiling of a Lebron James or Dwyane Wade, but if he breaks out, will be enough to at least make one of the Big 3 work hard on defense. Holiday and Young pretty much are what they are at this point, but are capable enough to be the third and fourth best players on a quality playoff team. Young stands to gain the most with Andre Iguodala getting shipped out of town. There are too many question marks to rate this team too high, but if you’re looking for the best long-shot bet to win the NBA Finals, here it is.
10. Indiana Pacers
Top 100 Players = C Roy Hibbert (35), SF Danny Granger
(39), PF David West (56), SG Paul George (75), PG George Hill (87)Projects = PG D.J. Augustin
Outlook = Remember when the Pacers were up 2-1 in their second round series with the Bosh-less Heat? They got their doors blown off the next three games, and have the look of a team that has little room for improvement. With the exception of Paul George, none of their starting five appears to have any room for growth (it should be noted though that George does have the tools to develop into a top 20 player). One could argue that Indiana is the new version of the Joe Johnson era Atlanta Hawks. They’ll land a four or five seed and make it no farther than the second round of the playoffs.
9. Brooklyn Nets
Top 100 Players = PG Deron Williams (10), SG Joe Johnson
(33), C Brook Lopez (60), SF Gerald Wallace (70), PF Kris Humphries (84)Projects = SG MarShon Brooks
Outlook = I hate to rate this team so high after screwing up the Dwight Howard trade talks so much, but I like their starting five. Joe Johnson’s most efficient season was when he was Phoenix with Steve Nash, so being paired with Deron Williams should be a good thing for him. Brook Lopez might be the only seven-footer in the league that can’t get a rebound, but Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries will cover for his board-deficiencies enough to allow Lopez to focus on scoring. The bench is where it gets kind of scary, but that shouldn’t be enough to keep Brooklyn from nabbing home-court advantage in the first round.
8. Denver Nuggets
Top 100 Players = SG Andre Iguodala (28), PG Ty Lawson
(48), SF Danilo Gallinari (54), PF Kenneth Faried (71), C JaVale McGee (77), SF
Wilson Chandler (93), PG Andre Miller (94)Projects = PF Anthony Randolph, C Kosta Koufos
Outlook = I bet you wouldn’t of guessed that Denver would have the most players ranked inside the top-100, but they do with seven. The Nuggets are loaded at every position, and have more flexibility than any other team in the league. Most importantly, every one of their top players can run the floor. Andre Iguodala (their reward for helping to facilitate the Dwight Howard deal) only adds to their athleticism, and also brings an element of perimeter defense that has been missing in Denver for years. This team is built to handle an 82-game regular season, but it remains to be seen who their crunch-time scorer will be come playoff time.
7. Los Angeles Clippers
Top 100 Players = PG Chris Paul (4), PF Blake Griffin
(14), C DeAndre Jordan (86)Projects = PG Eric Bledsoe
Outlook = There isn’t a team in the league more dependent on veterans who didn’t crack the top 100 than the Los Angeles Clippers. Chauncey Billups is coming off a blown out knee. Caron Butler is come back after a broken wrist ended his 2012 season. Grant Hill joins the team on accident, because I’m pretty sure he thought he was going to the same Los Angeles team Steve Nash was (oops!). Lamar Odom is still married to the chunky Kardashian. All four of these men need to contribute for the Clipper to be a championship threat. Even more vital than that is the development of Blake Griffin. For all the highlights, Griffin looked like the exact same player during his second season as he did during his rookie year. He needs to have some semblance of an accurate 15-foot jumper, and he needs to have a clue about where he needs to be on defense. As soon as Griffin fixes these two flaws in his game, there’s no telling how far the Chris Paul led Clippers can go.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Top 100 Players = C Marc Gasol (24), SF Rudy Gay (32), PF
Zach Randolph (34), PG Mike Conley (65), SG Tony Allen (66)Projects = PG Tony Wroten, PF Darrell Arthur
Outlook = Last season, Memphis was derailed by Zach Randolph injury issues all season. Even worse, when he returned, him and Rudy Gay never showed the kind of chemistry needed to make a deep playoff run. If they don’t figure it out within the first few months of the season, look for Gay or Randolph to get shipped out of town. If that doesn’t happen, you’re looking at the best defensive team in the Western Conference. A couple of bench pieces need to materialize (in particular, a scoring threat), but Memphis isn’t far away from being able to compete with the Lakers and Thunder.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Top 100 Players = PG Tony Parker (16), SG Manu Ginobili
(25), C Tim Duncan (27), SF Kawhi Leonard (95)Projects = PF DeJuan Blair
Outlook = San Antonio looked like they were going to go undefeated in the playoffs before inexplicably falling apart in Games 3-6 of the Western Conference Finals. The same roster returns, which is the reason we have to downgrade the Spurs chances of making the conference finals this season. We know San Antonio will throw games in the name of keeping their Big 3 healthy, but will that cost the Spurs a top seed in the West? A first round date with Oklahoma City or the Lakers would not be in their best interests.
4. Boston Celtics
Top 100 Players = PG Rajon Rondo (12), C Kevin Garnett
(21), SF Paul Pierce (29), SG Jason Terry (81), PF Brandon Bass (97)
Projects = SG Avery Bradley, SF Jeff Green, PF Jared
Sullinger, C Fab MeloOutlook = When I did my rough draft rankings, I had the Celtics ranked at 10, but when you start comparing their roster to the rest of the league, it wasn’t hard to push them up to 4. Losing Ray Allen hurts, but even without him this will be the deepest Celtics team since the championship winning 2007-08 club. Jason Terry might not be as accurate as Allen from behind the arc, but is capable of getting white-hot and can even run the point for short stretches. Avery Bradley will return fully healthy this season, and will bring elite perimeter defense (it’s not hard to wonder what could’ve happened if Dwyane Wade had to deal with Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals last season). Jeff Green returns from his heart ailment, and provides another solid wing defender. Jared Sullinger should at worst be a Big Baby 2.0. Even more important, Boston finally has some financial flexibility. Kevin Garnett earned $21 million last year. This season he’s on the books for $11 million. They also saved $6 million swapping Jason Terry in for Ray Allen. With as many parts as they have, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Danny Ainge could swing a deal for a big time asset, which is something he had no chance of doing a year ago. Even with one of the oldest rosters in the league, Boston’s future looks much brighter now than it did a year ago.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Top 100 Players = C Dwight Howard (3), SG Kobe Bryant
(6), PF Pau Gasol (15), PG Steve Nash (19)Projects = SG Jodie Meeks
Outlook = I remember quite vividly what happened the last time the Los Angeles Lakers put together “a big four”. The quartet of Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton struggled through an inconsistent regular season before rallying to make the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons in five games then promptly dominated them. I’m not saying this group (which is clearly stronger than the 2003-04 quartet) will suffer a similar fate, but it is meant to poor some cold water on people who think they are going to win 75 games. We still have no idea how Kobe Bryant will adjust to having a great point guard (sorry Derek Fisher fans). My guess is he’ll welcome having Steve Nash take on a greater share of the ball handling, but Kobe is a bit bonkers so you never know. The bench leaves much to be desired (with the exception of Jodie Meeks, who is going to be a deadly 3-point sharpshooter when he gets to play with Nash), which could be an issue if Dwight Howard’s back issues flare up during the regular season. The Lakers will not win 70 games, but if the Nash and Kobe mesh well, 60 wins should be a reasonable target.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Top 100 Players = SF Kevin Durant (2), PG Russell
Westbrook (9), SG James Harden (26), PF Serge Ibaka (41), PF Nick Collison (100)Projects = PG Eric Maynor, SF Perry Jones, PF Daniel Orton, C Cole Aldrich
Outlook = The youngest team in the NBA is at a bit of a crossroads for the first time since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City. Star players Durant and Westbrook are locked up, but the James Harden negotiations will go along way in determining if this group has a chance at becoming a dynasty. Harden will be a restricted free agent after the season, and surely will command a max offer (4 years, $64 million) from someone. Bill Simmons wrote about 12,000 words about James Harden last week, but in case you missed that piece, let’s list the options Oklahoma City has.
- Resign him now
- Trade him either now or before the trade deadline in February
- Play out the season and see what happens in free agency
1. Miami Heat
Top 100 Players = SF Lebron James (1), SG Dwyane Wade
(8), PF Chris Bosh (18), SG Ray Allen (64)Projects = PG Norris Cole
Outlook = They employ the best basketball player on planet Earth. No matter how much you hate them, it would be irresponsible to rate them any lower than first heading into the regular season.
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