Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Rounds 4-5

            It’s been a little while since the last installment so if you want a refresher on who got taken already, click here for round 1, and here for rounds 2-3.

4-37 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

            You’re not going to get any homers, but he’s the safest source of steals the shortstop position has to offer.

4-38 = Zach Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            Advanced metrics indicate that Greinke is a fantastic buy-low candidate (if a pick within the fourth or fifth rounds can be considered “buy-low”). Redraft league participants should consider the merits of taking Greinke as your staff ace two rounds later than you would have to take Felix Hernandez.

4-39 = Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

            Lawrie has all the raw tools to succeed, it’s just a matter of if he can live up to the hype or not. In a redraft league, he’s probably not worth the risk of using such a high pick on him.

4-40 = Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs

            Castro is a hitting machine, and an up tick in the stolen base department could make him a second round pick at this time next year.

4-41 = Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

            The only thing that will keep Strasburg from finishing the season as a top-5 fantasy pitcher will be the Nationals limiting his innings.

4-42 = Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

            Haren is a notorious fast starter/poor finisher (that’s what she said), but the addition of Mr. Pujols should generate an extra win or two or three.

4-43 = Matt Holiday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals

            Those of you worried about Holiday’s ability to anchor the Cardinals lineup should remember that he was the best hitter on a Rockies team that went to the World Series in 2007.

4-44 = Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

            I’ve owned Zimmerman twice, and I think he spent a combined 753 games on the DL. He’s a nice player when he’s healthy, but for the life of me I can’t figure out why Washington would pay him $100 million.

4-45 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians

            Displaying arguably the most advanced plate approach of any young player in the game last season, Santana is due for a fairly substantial increase from his 2011 batting average, which also has the potential to translate into 30 dingers.

4-46 = Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

            Keep in mind that at the time I made these picks, Braun was facing a 50 game suspension, and I still had him at 46. It’s a little concerning losing Prince Fielder’s bat behind him, but Braun is too talented to slip out of the top-10. I would take him with the third pick if I had the chance in a redraft league today.

4-47 = David Price, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            If you’re into nerd stats, Price’s 12-13 2011 season was actually better than his 19-6 campaign in 2010. Even in the AL East, Price has the talent to deliver top-5 stats.

4-48 = Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

            I’m not touching A-Rod with a ten-foot pole unless my draft is in the sixth round and I’m still in need of a third baseman, but some idiot is going to draft him earlier than that.

5-49 = Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants

            Boring? Yes. Effective? Yes again. Thank the post-steroids era for making this guy a fifth round pick.

5-50 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-RF, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Fantasy baseball’s version of a Swiss army knife, Zobrist does a little bit of everything. A great pick at this point in the draft to anchor your middle infield.

5-51 = Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox

            One of the few non-steroids aided first basemen to remain effective in his mid-30s, Konerko is the man to target if you miss out on the big time first basemen in the first two rounds.

5-52 = Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox

            I’ll let the “experts” at ESPN fill this space. Here is what they have to say about Lester saying he wants to right the wrongs of 2011 and have a great 2012.

Lester was the first involved party to come clean about the aforementioned fried chicken and beer controversy and was very contrite, and implied he would make good in 2012. Normally, this can be brushed off as player-speak, but when the player is a cancer survivor, the words have more credibility.

            Uh, okay.

5-53 = Michael Young, 1B-2B-3B, Texas Rangers
            One of baseball’s most underrated hitters, Young’s position flexibility makes him a valuable asset for any fantasy team.

5-54 = Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

            The second Brewers pitcher taken in our mock that nerd stats indicate is a breakout candidate. Gallardo’s price tag is even cheaper than Greinke’s, which makes him a potential championship-swinging player in redraft leagues. At 26, Gallardo is poised to have a Cy Young caliber season.

5-55 = Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies

            Age is catching up to him, but his place in the middle of the Phillies lineup still makes him one of the best options at second base.

5-56 = Mike Napoli, C-1B, Texas Rangers

            Don’t bank on Napoli batting over .300 again (his .344 BABIP in 2011 is completely unsustainable), but even if he drops to .250 his increased at-bats could lead to 35+ dingers. It’s hard to argue with anyone who would make him the first catcher off the board.

5-57 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Atlanta Braves

            The batting average can be scary, and he’s prone to prolonged slumps, but there isn’t a better source of home runs from a second baseman not named Robinson Cano in baseball.

5-58 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

            Brandon Phillips is like the Matt Cain of second baseman. He’s not sexy, but he gets the job done.

5-59 = Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

            The day that Eric Hosmer improves his fly ball rate will be the day that Eric Hosmer rules the universe. Like Brett Lawrie, Hosmer’s a risky proposition in redraft leagues with this high of a pick.

5-60 = James Shields, SP, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

            Shields was No Credentials favorite pitcher who most likely went after round 20 in fantasy drafts in 2011. He was on both of my fantasy teams last season, and delivered a pretty good Roy Halladay impression. Many skeptics believe that 2011 was a fluke, but nerd stats back up the case that Shields is capable of having another solid campaign in 2012. He’s going as late as the eighth round in some leagues, which is absolutely absurd. Go move Shields up your draft cheat sheet as soon as you close this browser.

Sunday Draft (2-20-11) Round 4 of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

4-37 = Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox – I love Lester this year. Even if he pitches as well as he did the past two seasons, he has a chance to sneak up to 22 or 24 wins with the powerful offense he has supporting him.

           

4-38 = Buster Posey, C-1B, Giants – Posey looks like the National League version of Joe Mauer, with a little less average and a bit more power.

4-39 = Jason Heyward, OF-RF, Braves – The only thing that held Heyward back last season was a couple of pesky injuries. His excellent plate discipline gives him the chance to a top-10 player this season. You’ll probably have to snag him in the 3^rd round if you want him on your team.

4-40 = C.C. Sabathia, SP, Yankees – I can’t figure out why most fantasy prognosticators have C.C. ranked so low. The last time I checked, he still pitches for the New York Yankees. Even more important, he has the option to opt out of his contract after this season (which based on how much money Cliff Lee got paid, Sabathia better be opting out of his contract), which means he is probably pitching to earn the last big contract of his career.  

4-41 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves – Uggla can be frustrating at times due to his high strikeout rate, but second basemen that consistently smack over 30 homers per season don’t grow on trees.

4-42 = Victor Martinez, C-1B, Tigers – Assuming Miguel Cabrera gets the help he needs and is ready to go for opening day, Victor Martinez is the perfect compliment for him. Victor will rarely have to play catcher this season, which means you will get more at-bats out of him than your typical backstop.

4-43 = Justin Upton, OF-RF, Diamondbacks – Upton was picked anywhere from the mid-2^nd to early 3^rd-round in fantasy drafts last year, but regressed in almost every offensive category. This is a guy that if he can ever figure it out, could deliver top-10 value.

4-44 = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 home runs last season. While no one should expect to see that again, would you complain if you got 35 homers out of a 3^rd Basemen you took towards the end of the 4^th round?

4-45 = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball the first half of last year before sputtering down the stretch. Reports out of spring training are favorable so far, so expect Jimenez to come out of the gates strong again (and then maybe think about trading him in late June).

4-46 = Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies – I would not take Jimmy Rollins here, but in your draft someone will probably already have taken him at the end of the 3^rd round. Rollins has been in steady decline the past few seasons.

4-47 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds – Cincinnati had one of the most powerful offenses in the National League last season, but Phillips actually had a down year. If he bounces back in 2011, expect a career year.

4-48 = Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins – If Johnson wasn’t such an injury risk, you could make a case for him being taken in the range of Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum. This is the perfect spot to gamble on him.