Sunday Draft (2-20-11) Round 4 of the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

4-37 = Jon Lester, SP, Red Sox – I love Lester this year. Even if he pitches as well as he did the past two seasons, he has a chance to sneak up to 22 or 24 wins with the powerful offense he has supporting him.

           

4-38 = Buster Posey, C-1B, Giants – Posey looks like the National League version of Joe Mauer, with a little less average and a bit more power.

4-39 = Jason Heyward, OF-RF, Braves – The only thing that held Heyward back last season was a couple of pesky injuries. His excellent plate discipline gives him the chance to a top-10 player this season. You’ll probably have to snag him in the 3^rd round if you want him on your team.

4-40 = C.C. Sabathia, SP, Yankees – I can’t figure out why most fantasy prognosticators have C.C. ranked so low. The last time I checked, he still pitches for the New York Yankees. Even more important, he has the option to opt out of his contract after this season (which based on how much money Cliff Lee got paid, Sabathia better be opting out of his contract), which means he is probably pitching to earn the last big contract of his career.  

4-41 = Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves – Uggla can be frustrating at times due to his high strikeout rate, but second basemen that consistently smack over 30 homers per season don’t grow on trees.

4-42 = Victor Martinez, C-1B, Tigers – Assuming Miguel Cabrera gets the help he needs and is ready to go for opening day, Victor Martinez is the perfect compliment for him. Victor will rarely have to play catcher this season, which means you will get more at-bats out of him than your typical backstop.

4-43 = Justin Upton, OF-RF, Diamondbacks – Upton was picked anywhere from the mid-2^nd to early 3^rd-round in fantasy drafts last year, but regressed in almost every offensive category. This is a guy that if he can ever figure it out, could deliver top-10 value.

4-44 = Jose Bautista, 3B-RF, Blue Jays – Bautista came out of nowhere to hit 54 home runs last season. While no one should expect to see that again, would you complain if you got 35 homers out of a 3^rd Basemen you took towards the end of the 4^th round?

4-45 = Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies – Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball the first half of last year before sputtering down the stretch. Reports out of spring training are favorable so far, so expect Jimenez to come out of the gates strong again (and then maybe think about trading him in late June).

4-46 = Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies – I would not take Jimmy Rollins here, but in your draft someone will probably already have taken him at the end of the 3^rd round. Rollins has been in steady decline the past few seasons.

4-47 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Reds – Cincinnati had one of the most powerful offenses in the National League last season, but Phillips actually had a down year. If he bounces back in 2011, expect a career year.

4-48 = Josh Johnson, SP, Marlins – If Johnson wasn’t such an injury risk, you could make a case for him being taken in the range of Felix Hernandez and Tim Lincecum. This is the perfect spot to gamble on him.

In 6 Months We'll Forget Victor Martinez

            Victor Martinez is leaving the Red Sox to play for the Detroit Tigers. Detroit offered Martinez an extra $8 million than Boston was willing to pay. Martinez hit .313 in 183 games with the Red Sox, smacking 28 homers and driving in 120.

            Offensively this is a blow for the Red Sox, but his production can be replaced either this off-season or next. Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder could be had via trade, or signed after the season. Arizona has also been rumored to be dangling Justin Upton, who would find his inner monster smacking line drives off or over the Green Monster. Gonzalez would be the perfect acquisition, as his hitting approach fits in perfectly with what the Red Sox do (make sure games last 4 hours by taking tons of pitches). Throw in the possible signing of Carl Crawford, and the healthy returns of Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, and the Sox should have a powerful offense in 2011.

            The less talked about aspect of this trade for the Red Sox is the upgrade on defense. Martinez has one of the weakest arms of any major league catcher (and with David Ortiz signed up for 2011, there would’ve been limited opportunities to use Victor as the DH). Tampa Bay made every game against the Red Sox look like a track meet. Just about any catcher is an upgrade over him. I’d be happy to see the Sox sign one of the 16 Molina brothers and have them bat ninth and play catcher.

            Detroit will get a nice bump from this acquisition. The Tigers crumbled last year when the entire line-up around Miguel Cabrera got hurt during the summer. Martinez is a great second banana to pair up with Cabrera. Detroit has more flexibility with their DH slot, so Martinez should have to catch less for the Tigers.

            This move is a win-win for both sides. Boston gets the Tigers 1^st round pick in a loaded 2011 draft class (because of the Tigers signing Martinez. MLB has some quirky rules involving the signing of free agents). The additional draft pick in round 1 will neutralize the blow of losing a pick if they sign Carl Crawford. The Red Sox have as much flexibility as they have had in many years. Let’s see what they do with it.