Mark
Cuban raised some interesting thoughts about whether or not Oklahoma City
should shut down Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to land a lottery pick in
next year’s draft, and those thoughts have inspired us to introduce a new
series called, “To Tank or Not to Tank?”. Naturally, our first team is O.K.C.
The Team = Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record = 3-6, tied for eleventh in the West
Situation = Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are
both out until late November, leaving the Thunder with Serge Ibaka, Reggie
Jackson, and a bunch of other dudes.
The Case to Tank = I can’t think of another
championship contending NBA team that was so ravaged by injuries to start the
season. O.K.C’s entire offense literally revolves around their two star
players. There is no fancy motion offense, and few set plays. For the most
part, Durant and Westbrook take turn jacking jumpers or driving to the basket.
If they
were in the East, it would be much more likely that they could stay within
shouting distance of the eighth seed until their star players returned, but
their place in the Western Conference makes that much more unlikely. Let’s say
they have to go eight more games without Durant and Westbrook. If they were to
go 2-6 in those games, that puts them at 5-12. 49 wins was what it took to make
the playoffs in the West last year, and the Thunder would have to go 44-20 the
rest of the way to match that. The talent is there to do it, but by the time
they got to the playoffs, they might not have anything left in the tank for
their first round series against the first or second seed.
Tanking
gives the opportunity for the Thunder to develop young players like Perry Jones
(who was sensational before going down with an injury of his own), Reggie
Jackson (a restricted free agent next season who the Thunder should keep), and
Steven Adams. Add a lottery pick to this group, and the Thunder suddenly are a
significantly deeper squad in 2015-16. A team this talented hasn’t been in the
lottery since the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan in 1997, and that only happened
because David Robinson was shut down for most of the season.
The Case to Not Tank = Can you say “Kevin Durant will
be an unrestricted free agent after the 2016 season”? Enough has been written
about the James Harden trade that we won’t rehash it here, but the seeds for
Durant leaving may have been sown when The Beard was shipped to Houston. The
Thunder’s notorious penny-pinching ways could be enough to convince Durant to
flee to greener pastures. Throw in Russell Westbrook’s free agency a year after
that, and you could be talking about a starless Thunder team that opens the
2017 season. The best way for the Thunder to convince Durant to stay is to win
a title in one of the next two seasons. They are talented enough that they
could make a deep playoff run regardless of which seed they end up with, and
with some of the valuable experience earned by some of their younger players,
they should be better equipped to give their star players rest during the
playoffs. Last year the Thunder played Derek Fisher during the last ten minutes
of their season, which is insane when you consider Fisher is now COACHING the
Knicks. Replacing him with Perry Jones or Steven Adams would be a major talent
upgrade.
No Credentials Final Verdict = We wouldn’t mail it in
if we were running the Thunder. Plenty of contending clubs are stumbling out of
the gate (as of this writing, the Spurs and Clippers would also be on the
outside looking in if the playoffs started today), and as long as they get one
of their star players back before Thanksgiving, there will be enough time for
the Thunder to solidify their playoff position. A team that four years ago
looked like it had a bright long term future is now less than two years away
from facing Kevin Durant hitting the open market, so they need to maximize
every opportunity to win a NBA championship.
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