ESPN Projections = .280, 17 HRs, 65 RBIs, 86 Rs, 19 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 8th Rounds
Lawrie looked significantly more impressive during his brief call-up in 2011 than he did during his first full season in the bigs. He’ll need to improve upon his 51% groundball rate to deliver a 20-20 season.
6-52 = Allen Craig, 1B-OF, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = .296, 25 HRs, 103 RBIs, 87 Rs, 4 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 6th Rounds
If Craig could somehow stay healthy, he’d be a lock for top-15 fantasy production. Unfortunately, he’s missed roughly a quarter of his games due to injury during his pro career.
6-53 = Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .257, 15 HRs, 70 RBIs, 90 Rs, 25 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th Round
He’ll never steal 30+ bases again, but you won’t complain if Kipnis raises his home run total to 20.
6-54 = Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 176 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 7th Rounds
One down year has not destroyed No Credentials faith in Halladay.
6-55 = Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers
ESPN Projections = .274, 3 HRs, 57 RBIs, 90 Rs, 32 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 7th Rounds
With the loss of Josh Hamilton, I fully expect Texas to give Andrus the green light on the base paths much more this season. If he stays out of the tattoo parlor, he could crack 40 for the first time.
6-56 = Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN Projections = 16 Ws, 3.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 197 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 7th Rounds
I’m not sure if Wainwright will ever be as effective as he was before Tommy John surgery, but this is the appropriate point in the draft to find out.
6-57 = Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
ESPN Projections = .268, 27 HRs, 95 RBIs, 85 Rs, 6 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 8th Rounds
Another guy that you shouldn’t get to excited about on draft day (don’t call his name in the third round, or bid too much in an auction), Rizzo is a prime example of why you could skip out on the top few first basemen in the first round.
6-58 = Mat Latos, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 197 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 7th Rounds
No Credentials fully expects Latos to make the leap to “ace” status during his second season in Cincinnati. This is a guy I want on as many fantasy teams as possible.
6-59 = B.J. Upton, OF, Atlanta Braves
ESPN Projections = .245, 23 HRs, 77 RBIs, 84 Rs, 31 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 8th Rounds
I’m not a fan of guys that routinely hit below .250, but there aren’t many power-speed combo players like Upton.
6-60 = Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals
ESPN Projections = 19 Ws, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 208 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 4th through 6th Rounds
Gonzalez hasn’t been suspended yet for his connection to the steroids ring in Florida, but that hasn’t stopped me from scooting him down my draft board a bit. He’ll need to deliver a “I don’t give a shit” season like Ryan Braun did last year for me to trust his ability to deal with steroid allegations.
7-61 = Carlos Santana, C-1B, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .257, 26 HRs, 87 RBIs, 81 Rs, 5 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 7th Rounds
Santana’s disciplined plate approach will eventually lead to a top-ranked fantasy season at catcher for him, but I’m not sure if we can sign off on it happening this year.
7-62 = Ben Zobrist, 2B-SS-OF, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .269, 19 HRs, 82 RBIs, 91 Rs, 17 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 8th Rounds
One of the few players whose value goes beyond the stats he can post. Zobrist’s ability to cover both middle infield spots is worth an extra round or two.
7-63 = Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
ESPN Projections = .252, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, 98 Rs, 36 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 7th through 9th Rounds
Jennings tanked in the first half of last season, but a strong second half gives me reason to believe that he will be a catalyst at the top of the Rays’ lineup this season. If he could drag his average up to .270, we could be talking about a 50 steal season.
7-64 = Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = 18 Ws, 3.00 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 169 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 7th Rounds
Of all the “ace” caliber pitchers that didn’t deliver close to a strikeout per inning last season, Cueto is the least likely to regress.
7-65 = Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
ESPN Projections = .285, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 93 Rs, 15 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 7th Rounds
Phillips isn’t exciting to own, but reliability at second base doesn’t grow on trees.
7-66 = Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
ESPN Projections = 15 Ws, 3.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 203 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 8th Rounds
For me, he’s the shakiest starting pitcher we’ve picked so far, as his 1.33 WHIP in the second half of last season could be a better indication of the pitcher he actually is.
7-67 = Pablo Sandoval, 3B, San Francisco Giants
ESPN Projections = .309, 23 HRs, 90 RBIs, 80 Rs, 3 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 8th Rounds
Don’t let his Ruth-esque October last year fool you. Sandoval is a player prone to injuries, and is completely dependant on his BABIP due to the fact that he barely walks. You could argue that he could end up with anywhere from 10 to 35 home runs this season.
7-68 = R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 176 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 8th Rounds
We have no data on what happens when a knuckleballer wins the Cy Young and then changes leagues the following year, so I’m going conservative with Dickey this season and letting someone else draft him.
7-69 = Michael Bourn, OF, Cleveland Indians
ESPN Projections = .268, 5 HRs, 49 RBIs, 89 Rs, 43 SBs
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 6th through 8th Rounds
One of the elite base stealers in the game, Bourn could take his running to new heights as a member of the Indians. Remember, they gave Jason Kipnis (a moderately fast white guy) the green light to steal 31 bases in 2012.
7-70 = C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees
ESPN Projections = 17 Ws, 3.39 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 213 Ks
No Credentials Appropriate Range of Taking Him = 5th through 7th Rounds
There’s a zero percent chance Sabathia falls to pick 70 in your fantasy draft. More than likely, he’ll go somewhere in the late fifth to early sixth. However, there are too many red flags for Sabathia this year to warrant making him the ace of my fantasy staff. For one, theirs a decent chance that the Yankees will stink, driving down Sabathia’s win totals (wins are a fluky stat, but Sabathia has been the most reliable producer of them over the past four years). He hit the DL last August because of an elbow problem, which is scary when you consider that he’s thrown more innings than any other MLB pitcher on Earth over the past five years. Throw in his body type (big guys rarely age well unless steroids are involved), and we are looking at a cliff at some point down the road for Sabathia’s career. I’m not guaranteeing it will happen this year, but I don’t want him stuck on my roster when it does.
Click here if you missed Rounds 2-3
Click here if you missed Round 1
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