This is a weird set of wildcard games. With three very suspect division winners (Seattle, Indy, and KC), and another contest that in my opinion, is a toss-up, I would not recommend anyone to wager on all four of these games. And whatever you do, do not do a three-team teaser (even a two-teamer is questionable). I’ll be happy to come out of this week 2-2, and then move on to the divisional round where you can bet on New England, Pittsburgh, and whoever ends up playing Chicago.
I’m test-driving a new element to my picks columns. Each week, I’ll determine which of my picks I’m the most confident in. I’ll rank them based on the number of games. For example, this week the pick I am the most confident in is the Ravens over Kansas City. I will give it a confidence rating of a “4” (since there are only four games this week). I’ll see how this works for the playoffs, and hopefully during the regular season next year I can set up some sort of contest for my readers to enter.
As always, home teams are in caps.
Saints (-10.5) over SEAHAWKS
I listened to Aaron Schatz make some compelling points on “The BS Report” about how Seattle could keep this game close. I just can’t in good conscious, pick them to cover this spread.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle’s crowd swung this game at all, or the much-maligned 7-9 Seahawks gave a superior effort. This feels like the kind of thing that whatever I pick, it will be wrong. Don’t ask me why.
Saints 31, Seahawks 14
Confidence Rating = 2
Jets (+2.5) over COLTS
Other than the NFC West, I’m not sure there is another division in football that the Colts could’ve won this year. Manning did an incredible job dragging this sorry team into the playoffs, but it will be a short-lived run. The Jets are built to dismantle this team, and set a rubber match with the Patriots.
Jets 24, Colts 13
Confidence Rating = 3
Ravens (-3) over CHIEFS
This is a really bad match-up for Kansas City. I don’t see their offensive line being able to handle the Ravens pass-rush. Matt Cassel already lost his appendix a couple of weeks ago. He might lose a kidney, his liver, and his small intestine after this game is done.
Ravens 27, Chiefs 7
Confidence Rating = 4
EAGLES (-2.5) over Packers
In my opinion, this is the best match-up of the weekend. If you recall, Green Bay won in Philly in week 1 after Kevin Kolb stunk up the joint in the first half. After Kolb was knocked out, Michael Vick entered the game and almost led an improbable comeback. Philadelphia has really only played one good quarter in the last four weeks (the 4th quarter against the Giants), but I like them coming back with a well-rested Vick (he sat out week 17).
Eagles 20, Packers 17
Confidence Rating = 1
Last Week = 9-7
Regular Season = 61-50-1
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