NFL Divisional Round Picks

STEELERS (-3) over Ravens
I've gone back and forth with this pick for the last 5 minutes. Ultimately for me, it comes down to trusting Ben Roethlisberger more than Joe Flacco to make a play (we're talking football here. I would not trust Roethlisberger with any female I cared about).

Steelers 17, Ravens 13
Confidence = 1

FALCONS (-2.5) over Packers
If this line was Falcons by -3.5, I would take Green Bay. I like Atlanta by a field goal.

Falcons 24, Packers 21
Confidence = 2

Seahawks (+10) over BEARS
It feels very odd taking a 7-9 team on the road to cover, but the Jay Cutler-Mike Martz combo makes it hard to justify laying 10 with them. Expect Chicago to win, but it will be fairly close.

Bears 31, Seahawks 24
Confidence = 3

PATRIOTS (-8.5) over Jets
Easiest game of the week. Mark Sanchez was terrible against a mediocre Colts defense. If the Colts won, you could've argued that Sanchez would've been the Colts MVP for the game. If New England can keep New York in "3rd and 5" or longer, expect a Patriots blowout.

Patriots 34, Jets 10
Confidence = 4

Regular Season = 61-50-1
Playoffs = 2-2
Confidence Score = 7 (nailed the top two games I was the most confident in)
Overall Record = 63-52-1

As I explained last week, I was toying with a little gimmick I called "the confidence rating". My plan for next year (assumming the NFL isn't locked out) is to run a picks contest through my blog page. One half of it will be seeing who ends up with the best overall record, the second part will be who ends up with the highest total "confidence score" at the end of the year. Planning is in the infant stages, but I think it's something that any NFL fan could have fun with. The confidence score element is great too, because even if you're overall record is hovering around .500, if you're nailing the games you feel the best about, you could still be in contention for some sort of prize (haven't figured out what that prize would be, like I said, infant stages of planning here). Expect more info as next season approaches.