Saturday, March 14, 2015

2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - First Basemen

            First Base is still the deepest infield position in the fantasy game like it has been since the beginning of time, which if you’re a positional scarcity fanatic means you likely wait for the elite options to come off the board and snag the ninth or tenth best option. These days though, you can’t afford to pass up on the power numbers generated by the top-tier. In your draft or auction, half of the first twelve picks (or half of the players that cost the most money in auctions) will be first basemen.

            Beyond the top tier, you’re looking at players that will be leading candidates to fill your utility spot. If you play in a league with two utility men, it’s imperative that you have one of those spots filled with a 1B.

Tier 1 = The Cream of the Crop

J.Abreu, CHW
P.Goldschmidt, ARI
A.Rizzo, CHC
J.Bautista, TOR OF
M.Cabrera, DET 3B
E.Encarnacion, TOR

            Health permitting, here are your safest bets for guys that will put up elite home run and RBI totals. If you find yourself in the bottom part of the first round in a draft, it would be a terrible idea to draft two of these guys back to back (that scenario is even rosier if Miguel Cabrera has third base eligibility in your league, but we’ll cover that later) to give yourself an edge in homers.

Tier 2 = Lower Ceilings, But Reliable

F.Freeman, ATL
A.Gonzalez, LAD

            Freeman’s value is impacted immensely by extreme lack of talent in the rest of the Atlanta Braves’ lineup. The risk of him getting virtually no pitches to hit is enough reason for me to stay away from him in fantasy leagues. Adrian Gonzalez is one of the better bets to lead the National League in RBIs, but his limited home run potential keeps him out of the top tier.

Tier-3 = High Ceilings, Low Floors

T.Frazier, CIN 3B
P.Fielder, TEX
B.Posey, SF C
D.Ortiz, BOS
A.Pujols, LAA
V.Martinez, DET
J.Lucroy, MIL C
C.Santana, CLE C-3B
J.Votto, CIN

(EDITORS NOTE: There’s no way you should be drafting Buster Posey or Jonathan Lucroy as your starting first basemen, but we note them because they do have 1B eligibility)

            Tier-3 can be divided into three groups. Catchers (read the note above), older guys who’s year-to-year value is extremely volatile (Fielder, Ortiz, Pujols, Martinez, Votto), and guys that we’d like to see match their 2014 performance again to ensure reliability (Frazier was a beast all of last year, while Santana was a rock once the calendar turned to summer). If one or two of these guys slip into the ninth or tenth round of your draft, or are available towards the end of your auction, there’s a lot of profit potential if you plug one of them into your utility spot.

Tier-4 = All or Nothing

C.Davis, BAL 3B
C.Carter, HOU OF

            Here are two of the only players in baseball whose most likely results are either a tape-measure home run or a strikeout. Davis is the preferred option here because he is only two years removed from a MVP-caliber campaign, but don’t sleep on Carter. Sure he’s going to demolish you in batting average, but he hit more homers than any other first base eligible player last year while only hitting .223. If he can hit over .250 like he did after the All-Star break in 2014, we could be talking about 45+ dingers.

Tier-5 = Valuable Bench Players 

M.Adams, STL
E.Hosmer, KC
R.Zimmerman, WAS 3B-OF
B.Moss, CLE OF
S.Pearce, BAL OF
L.Duda, NYM
M.Trumbo, ARI OF
A.LaRoche, CHW
C.Headley, NYY 3B
M.Napoli, BOS
M.Morse, MIA OF

            Ideally you’d like as much positional flexibility as possible out of your bench, and you should have at least one 1B-OF or 1B-3B eligible player on your team. Of this group, we like Ryan Zimmerman (35% chance he doesn’t get hurt now that he’s stationed at first, and he’ll offer three position eligibility by May 1) and Chase Headley (just a hunch) the most.

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