2015 Fantasy Baseball Drafting/Bidding Tips

            Last year for the first time we posted our fantasy baseball draft guidelines. Most of my though processes are the same going into this year, but there a couple of new theories we’d like to introduce.

Statistical Scarcity is More Important Than Positional Scarcity

            Loyal readers of this blog (all five of you) will recall that every year I write that you should value infielders more than outfielders and wait on pitching. That’s still true to an extent, but for the first time we are placing higher value on hitters with high counting stat ceilings, regardless of position.

            Back in days of rampant steroid use, power hitting was all over the place. In 1998, 33 players eclipsed 30 home runs. Last year, eleven players in all of MLB hit 30+ home runs. In years past, we’ve always ranked guys like Robinson Cano or Troy Tulowitzki high because of the lack of talent at their respective positions, but would you rather have the 14 homers and 82 RBIs Cano put up last year, or the 34 and 98 put up by Edwin Encarnacion despite missing 34 games? Even though first base is deeper, Encarnacion’s counting numbers are far more valuable overall. Having the best second basemen, shortstop, or catcher isn’t the same advantage it was 15 years ago due to the superior stats you could’ve had with a top-flight outfielder or first basemen.

You Need to Understand Your League Rules Before Drafting

            ESPN’s Matthew Berry writes this in all of his draft day manifesto pieces, but it’s so true. Your league’s rules have an immense impact on the value you should place on certain players and positions. Here are the important ones to consider.

-         Is your league rotisserie or head-to-head? If it’s head-to-head, you can spend higher draft picks on players likely to start the year in the minors or on the DL.

-         How many utility spots are in your lineup? If the answer is more than one, you should strongly consider drafting two highly ranked first basemen to accumulate extra power stats.

-         Dynasty league or redraft? Redraft league players should not overvalue prospects, as it’s unlikely they’ll return significant value.

-         What are the pitching requirements and/or limits? Roto leagues with inning caps make it simple to determine how many pitchers you need for the season.

-         Are there additional roster spots for injured players or minor leaguers? Knowing whether or not you can stash Jose Fernandez until June and replace him on the active roster with a healthy pitcher is sort of valuable.

-         How many teams are there? It sounds stupid, but I don’t know how many times I’ve been in drafts where fellow league members were freaking out because they weren’t happy with the players left on the board at third base. In general the more teams there are starting pitchers are less valuable, while relief pitchers are more important.

Runs Matter For Hitters, Which is Weird

            In an era where offense is as pathetic as it has been since the dead ball era, it makes sense that “runs” is an overlooked stat. Consider that in 1998, 39 players cracked 100 runs scored, and 42 had 100 RBIs. In 2014, seven players scored at least 100 runs (seven!), and 12 made it to 100 RBIs. Even though Mike Trout’s stolen base production was down last year, placing first in runs scored and second in RBIs helped him maintain his place as the most valuable offensive fantasy player. Production in these two categories matters more than ever with scoring so scarce.

            Over the next few weeks, we will be posting position-by-position breakdowns (we’re adopting the tier format we’ve used for football the last two years. It worked pretty well for my fantasy football squads, might as well try it with baseball), so be on the lookout for those throughout the month of March.