Before we list the teams, let’s discuss the reason so many clubs should want to end up in the lottery. To put it in laymen’s terms…the 2014 draft class is fucking loaded. No Credentials ranks the top eight players on the board as guys that if they were in last year’s class, should’ve been the top ranked prospect. Here are the guys that everyone should be tanking for, as currently ranked by ESPN’s Chad Ford.
- Joel Embiid, C, Kansas = Embiid has flown up draft boards across the country, with some feeling he has the ceiling to eventually be the next Hakeem Olajuwon. At worst, he’s the next Dikembe Mutombo.
- Andrew Wiggins, SG, Kansas = Best compared to a new version of pre-injury Tracy McGrady, he’s the guy No Credentials would take first.
- Jabari Parker, SF, Duke = Reminds me of a Carmelo Anthony type player, who can also be adequate as a small-ball four. He’ll be the favorite for rookie of the year next year.
- Dante Exum, PG, Australia = He’s 6-6 and can play both guard spots if necessary. If I were running the Celtics and knew for sure I would be getting Exum in the draft, I’d trade Rondo in a nanosecond.
- Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky = Randle is the player who’s slipped the most from his preseason ranking, but he’s still a guy that could easily average a double-double in the NBA.
- Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State = The rare sophomore that has actually improved his draft status by returning for a second year in school. I’ll compare Smart to a young Deron Williams (emphasis on young, not the ankle twisting bum that has ruined two of my fantasy basketball teams in the last three years).
- Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona = Gordon is referenced by Chad Ford as “a virtual clone of Blake Griffin”. Last time I checked, Griffin was the first pick in a draft, and is pretty damn good at playing basketball.
- Dario Saric, PF, Croatia = Saric has the rare combo of being 6-10 and having point-guard level passing skills. If he improves his jump shot, we could be talking about a future offensive juggernaut.
So suffice it to say, if you’re in the top 8,
chances are you’re ending up with a building block for a championship
contender.
10. Dallas Mavericks
26-20, 8th in Western ConferenceGood News = Dirk Nowitzki is back after an injury plagued 2012-13.
Bad News = Unless Monte Ellis is feeling it, no one other than Dirk can score.
What They Should Do = Looking at this roster, it’s hard to believe that Dallas is above .500 playing in the ridiculous Western Conference. It’s truly a testament to the coaching of Rick Carlisle and the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki. Mark Cuban has infamously whiffed in his efforts to pair a marquee player with Dirk over the past few years (although his incompetence did pay off when Deron Williams chose to re-up with the Nets), but this off-season stands to be different. Dirk will be an unrestricted free agent, and there are whispers that he could give the Mavericks a hometown discount. Couple that with some larger contracts coming off the books (Shawn Marion for $9.3 millions, Vince Carter for $3.2 million), and Dallas should again have the cash flow to pursue a marquee free agent. To that end, tanking to insure they get a lottery pick to bolster their 2014-15 core would make more sense than fighting for an eighth seed and getting swept in the first round. Marion or Carter would be interesting options for playoff contenders looking to add depth, and could add a couple of second round picks. Dallas doesn’t have the pieces to pull off a big time trade, so a ‘Melo type trade for Dallas is unlikely. In the end, I think Dallas will be stubborn and stick with what they have until the bitter end.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
22-20, 9th in Western ConferenceGood News = No one in the West plays better defense than Memphis, and they’ve treaded water without Marc Gasol.
Bad News = Only Utah plays worse offense, and they have very little perimeter scoring.
What They Should Do = Memphis is the last team in the NBA playing like Pat Riley’s old Knicks teams in the early ‘90s. Unfortunately, that style of play will no longer get you to the NBA Finals. Barring a miracle trade for a premier wing player, the Grizzlies aren’t going anywhere fast. It’s a proud bunch, so I don’t expect them to begin tanking games, but that would be the smart thing to do.
13. Phoenix Suns
26-18, 7th in Western ConferenceGood News = No team in the league (Trail Blazers included) has exceeded expectations more than the Phoenix Suns. Jeff Hornacek might be one of the eight best coaches in the league already.
Bad News = Eric Bledsoe is out for another month.
What They Should Do = It’s great having the Suns back as an entertaining basketball team. Bledsoe was getting the majority of the publicity before he went down, but it’s been the exceptional play of Goran Dragic that has taken Phoenix to another level. The Suns are one of the few playoff contending clubs in the league that have cap space, and they are also blessed with Emeka Okafor’s $14.5 million expiring contract. Theoretically, they could trade for a max player today. The best news of all for Phoenix is their strength in the 2014 draft. While currently they wouldn’t have a lottery pick, there’s a chance they will have four picks in the first round (Phoenix needs to the Timberwolves to make the playoffs so their pick isn’t protected for the Suns to land a fourth pick. Their other two selections are coming from Washington and Indiana). Losing to put their own pick in the lottery makes the most logical sense, but long term Phoenix has a bright future whether or not they end up with a top-10 selection.
14. Denver Nuggets
22-21, 10th in Western ConferenceGood News = After looking clueless for the first month, rookie coach Brian Shaw has finally settled on a relatively consistent rotation.
Bad News = Danilo Gallinari is done for the year, leaving a gaping hole at small forward.
What They Should Do = One of the few No Credentials pre-season predictions that has rung true so far, Denver looks to be heading to the lottery for the first time in many years. JaVale McGee’s contract extension looks like a disaster so far, as the team has actually done better since he got hurt. Not to sound like a broken record, but just like the other Western teams, it makes more sense to lose and increase your ping-pong balls than fight for the right to get slaughtered in the first round. Denver has numerous low-cost assets that could net them some future draft picks if they choose to move them.
15. Toronto Raptors
23-21, 4th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Toronto immediately improved after trading Rudy “The Brick Layer” Gay.
Bad News = There’s very little chance they end up with Canadian prodigy Andrew Wiggins.
What They Should Do = Our first Eastern team on this list is the perfect time to discuss an issue that will hamper every team in the conference to tank. Toronto would be tenth in the West right now, but in the pathetic East they are the fourth best team. It’s ridiculous. Even if Toronto tried to lose the rest of their games, they wouldn’t be able too. This ultimately will play a role in whether or not they trade Kyle Lowry, who is far and away their most tradeable asset. Lowry is cheap (only costs $6.2 million this year), talented (he’s been carrying the team since Rudy Gay left town), and his contract expires after the season. Other than Oklahoma City, every other championship contending team in the league would have to think about sending a first round pick to Toronto for his services. Ultimately, we expect the Raptors to stand pat and enjoy being a playoff participant.
16. Atlanta Hawks
23-20, 3rd in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Jeff Teague has raised his level of production, and Paul Millsap has proven to be one of the best free agent bargains.
Bad News = Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral muscle, and is unlikely to return even if Atlanta makes it to the playoffs.
What They Should Do = Stuck in the same scenario as Toronto, Atlanta will also likely do little around the deadline, which is a damn shame because this team is built to trade. Horford is the only player making more than $10 million a year, and rest of the roster is a combo of short and economical contracts. Kyle Korver, Louis Williams, and Elton Brand all have skill sets that would be attractive to contending clubs.
18. Chicago Bulls
22-21, 5th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Tom Thibeadeau is the best coach in the NBA, and is getting everything he can out of a stripped down roster.
Bad News = They are still winning games despite the loss of Derrick Rose to injury and Luol Deng to a trade with Cleveland.
What They Should Do = Chicago is living evidence of why it’s so difficult for an Eastern Conference team to lose games on purpose this year. Even without Rose and Deng, they are 7-3 in their last ten games. Here are a couple of things the Bulls could do to make their roster even worse this year in the efforts of landing a marquee free agent this summer and landing a higher draft pick.
- Amnesty Carlos Boozer – Boozer has a player option for next year that he will likely exercise (his days of being worth near-max money were over four years ago, which ironically enough is around the time he signed with Chicago), making it very difficult for Chicago to trade him. Cutting him now would save $15.3 million for next year.
- Trade Kirk Hinrich somewhere for a second round pick – Plenty of teams in the league need reliable back-up point guards. Hinrich has the added bonus of playoff experience.
20. Sacramento Kings
15-28, 14th in Western ConferenceGood News = DeMarcus Cousins has morphed into the best low-post scorer in the league, and Rudy Gay rediscovered his shooting stroke after being traded from Toronto.
Bad News = Both of those players got hurt in the same game this past Wednesday.
What They Should Do = The Kings made one of the stranger moves of the season when they acquired Gay, but at least his play has built a sense of hope for the future. Sacramento should lose as many games as possible down the stretch, because if their pick falls out of the top-12 this year, it will be shipped to Chicago. A lottery pick added to the duo of Cousins and Gay could be the start of something big. Like Atlanta, the Kings have plenty of useful players that contending teams would be willing to trade second round picks for. We’d love to see Jimmer Fredette end up somewhere where he can get the chance to bomb threes at will.
22. Charlotte Bobcats
19-27, 8th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Somehow, they are eighth in the East. Also, they are changing their name to the Hornets next year, which is fucking awesome.
Bad News = If they continue to play at their current level of competence, there’s a strong possibility their first round pick will be shipped to the Bulls.
What They Should Do = Charlotte is another relatively surprising team that has taken steps this season. Al Jefferson was a great signing, as he’s the first legitimate post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Both Cleveland and New York will likely pass Charlotte in the standings, so we forecast that they should hang on to their first round pick. The Bobcats also will fetch an additional first rounder from Detroit if the pick ends up outside the top-8 (most lottery projections have it landing at 10 right now). Ben Gordon has a ridiculous $13.2 million expiring deal that should be used to net the Bobcats some assets before the trade deadline.
23. Detroit Pistons
17-27, 9th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Andre Drummond is legit.
Bad News = The Josh Smith signing has been a disaster.
What They Should Do = Let’s burn the damn forest down. For one, the Pistons need to fire Joe Dumars. Sure he was a Hall of Fame player back in the day, and built the 2004 NBA Champions, but it’s been all down hill since. Second, the front line of Drummond-Smith-Monroe needs to be broken up. There was a time when three huge dudes could dominate in the NBA, but in a day where floor spacing is so important, but unless one of them can shoot, that can’t happen anymore. Monroe is the most tradeable asset, as his $4 million rookie deal is up after the season. Monroe should fetch a fair amount on the trade market, as there isn’t many opportunities to pick up young, inexpensive seven-footers.
25. Orlando Magic
12-33, 14th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Victor Oladipo is a stat-stuffer who looks like he could eventually develop into a top-3 player on contending club.
Bad News = Jameer Nelson has somehow been their starting point guard for like eight years.
What They Should Do = Of all these shitty teams, you could make a strong case that Orlando has the best long-term outlook. They drafted the guy that in retrospect should’ve been the first overall pick in last year’s draft. Tobias Harris has missed a bunch of time, which means they lost even more games. Due to the struggles of both Denver and the Knicks, Orlando is currently in position to net a second lottery pick in the 2014 draft (the Knicks should get their act together and get out of the lottery, but you never know). Their own pick should end up solidly in the top 5, which means they’ll end up with a future franchise player regardless of how the draft plays out in front of them. The Magic could be back in the playoff picture as early as next year if things break right.
26. Los Angeles Lakers
16-29, 13th in Western ConferenceGood News = Pau Gasol has rebuilt the majority of his trade value, giving the Lakers arguably the most valuable trade chip on the market.
Bad News = Kobe Bryant continues to miss games, which is a damn shame for everyone.
What They Should Do = It sounds that the folks running the Lakers have finally realized this team is going no where, as rumors about Pau Gasol being shopped have picked up. Gasol is the rare combination of all-star caliber center paired with a mammoth $18.3 million expiring contract. A wide array of teams should be calling the Lakers about Gasol in the interest of contending, saving money, or doing both at the same time.
27. Boston Celtics
15-31, 12th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Rajon Rondo is back, Brad Stevens is a hell of a coach, and the team is still losing. Also, they’ve acquired six additional first round picks over the next five years.
Bad News = They might not have enough ping pong balls when May rolls around.
What They Should Do = Just lose baby! Short term, it sucks watching a team lose, but in Boston’s case, it’s the absolute right thing to do. If the draft lottery was to happen today, the Celtics would have the fourth most ping pong balls, which means they wouldn’t pick any lower than seventh. To put it in simple terms, they would definitely get a possible franchise player. I would not advise a trade of Rajon Rondo, as he isn’t good enough to single-handedly lift Boston into playoff contention, but he’s capable enough to be one of your best three players on a championship team. Furthermore, he’s relatively inexpensive. Danny Ainge should only trade Rondo if he’s also unloading Gerald Wallace’s atrocious contract with it. Kris Humphries has put up an 18.9 PER so far, and would add quality big-man minutes to a contender. He also has the benefit of an expiring contract. It would be foolish not to trade him. Other guys that I would consider moving would be Jeff Green (better suited as the top scoring option off the bench than a lead-dog role), Brandon Bass (a lesser version of Humphries, with the plus of playoff experience) and Avery Bradley (I don’t see him developing into a franchise player, but he could give quality defensive minutes to a contender).
28. Philadelphia 76ers
14-31, 13th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = Michael Carter-Williams will be a legit NBA point guard for the foreseeable future, and the Pelicans pick will definitely end up in the lottery.
Bad News = They’ve won more games already than many experts predicted they would win the entire year.
What They Should Do = If I could have my choice of which team to become the GM for, it would be the 76ers. There’s a realistic possibility that they could have four lottery picks out of back-to-back drafts starting for them next season. Nerlens Noel will be held out of games this year, but should develop into a strong defensive presence once healthy. We already discussed Williams, who has exceeded all expectations in his first year in the league. They currently would have the third most ping-pong balls if the draft lottery were to be held today, which means their own pick wouldn’t fall lower than sixth (meaning worst case scenario, they are getting Julius Randle or one of the elite foreign dudes), and unless New Orleans ends up with a top-5 pick, they’ll get another selection right around the ten spot. To ensure more ping-pong balls, I would trade Spencer Hawes (a stretch big who I’d love to see in Oklahoma City, but he could contribute anywhere), Evan Turner (not efficient, but can carry a team on some nights. His expiring contract would make some sense for Memphis to acquire), and Thaddeus Young (reasonably priced, and can fit as a small-ball 5 if necessary).
29. Utah Jazz
15-29, 15th in Western ConferenceGood News = Trey Burke looks like a long-term starter in the NBA, and they are by far the worst team in the most difficult conference.
Bad News = Enes Kanter has mostly looked like a stiff.
What They Should Do = The lowest ranked West team, Utah’s winning percentage should drop as the season goes along (the last quarter of the year is heavier with conference play). I would move Gordon Hayward out of town to ensure having as shitty a team as humanly possible.
30. Milwaukee Bucks
8-36, 15th in Eastern ConferenceGood News = They won’t have double digit wins until February, and the Greek Freak can ball.
Bad News = Milwaukee’s owner actually wanted this roster to contend for a playoff spot.
What Should They Do = We wrote that it was a strange roster before the season, and they haven’t disappointed. Buck’s coach Larry Drew yanks everyone’s minutes around on a nightly basis, which in a case of incompetence paying off, has led to Milwaukee having a commanding lead in the race for the first pick. There are players with value here, so anything they can do to accumulate draft picks and losses should be exercised. Caron Butler always seems to be overrated for his playoff experience, so it’s reasonable to think he could net them a second rounder.
No comments:
Post a Comment