2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup Predictions

            It’s bee one of the weirdest seasons in NASCAR history (punctuated by Michael Waltrip Racing’s dishonorable manipulation of the regular season finale. Good luck with no sponsors next year asshole), which has led to one of the more eclectic Chase fields in recent memory. We break down the 12-car field, plus discuss three bonus drivers who woulda-shoulda-coulda been in The Chase. 
 

He’d Be In The Chase, But He Broke His Leg

15. Tony Stewart - #14 Mobil/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

            The 3-time champion (and the only man to win under the old and new points system) wasn’t a shoe-in for The Chase, but likely would’ve ended up with the second wildcard spot if it wasn’t for breaking his leg in a sprint car accident. He wouldn’t have been a favorite to win the title, but everyone (including Tony Stewart) was saying the same thing before his improbable 2011 run.
 

The Real Victim

14. Jeff Gordon - #24 – Hendrick Motorsports

            Lost in all the discussion about Ryan Newman replacing Martin Truex Jr. in The Chase is Jeff Gordon, who at the time of caution Saturday night was tenth in points, which would’ve secured a spot in The Chase. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of last November’s race at Phoenix multiple times during The Chase.

 

It Wasn’t His Fault

13. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 Napa Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

            Maybe Truex knew there was a plan before the race to help get him in. Maybe he didn’t. Regardless, he drove his ass off to keep Jeff Gordon behind him in the closing laps, and didn’t appear to have any knowledge of why the caution came out. His team deserved the penalty, but it sucks for the driver who had nothing to do with bringing out the caution.
   

Karma is a Bitch

12. Clint Bowyer - #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            The only person happy with Clint Bowyer is Kyle Busch, and that’s because there’s finally someone that NASCAR fans will boo louder than him during pre-race introductions.

Happy to Be Here

11. Greg Biffle - #16 3M Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied for 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Roush is going to put all of its eggs in the Carl Edwards basket.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 AMP Energy Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Not since the inaugural Chase has Dale Earnhardt Jr. been relevant in it. We don’t forecast anything different this year.

9. Kurt Busch - #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Kurt making it in with Furniture Row Racing will be the second most impressive thing accomplished in NASCAR this season, only topped by whoever wins the title.
 

Punchers Chance at Making Noise

8. Kasey Kahne - #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            Flopping from one of the fastest cars onto the track to hovering around mid-pack from week to week is not a formula for success. It’s not impossible for Kahne to string together ten solid races in a weakened Chase field, but we won’t bet on it.

7. Kevin Harvick - #29 Budweiser Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing
Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            We’ll stand behind our theory we applied last season to Matt Kenseth about a lame duck driver not having a chance in The Chase.

6. Ryan Newman - #39 Quicken Loans/Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            He’s riding a solid wave of one part momentum and one part good will, but he won’t be able to avoid the lame duck stink in the end.

5. Joey Logano - #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford – Penske Racing
Tied For 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Throw out his middling performance at Richmond (which thankfully, is a type of track he won’t see in The Chase) and Logano was the hottest driver during the month of August. He’ll have speed at the 1.5 milers, but you should expect some inexperience to bite him in the end.
 

The Favorites

4. Matt Kenseth - #20 Home Depot Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

1^st in Chase Seeding With 5 Wins
            Throw out his Bristol win, and it’s been a fairly ordinary summer for Kenseth. He’ll be in the mix, but needs to recapture his early season form to win the championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            Jimmie Johnson’s last four finishes of 28th or worse are not fooling me. Johnson will be in the mix until Homestead.

2. Carl Edwards - #99 Subway/Fastenal/UPS/Kellogg’s Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            Quietly, Edwards was the point’s leader at the end of the NASCAR regular season. In a diminished Chase field, a consistent ten races might be enough for Cousin Carl to win his first championship.

 

The Favorite  

1. Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            I get it. Busch has never done anything in The Chase. In fact, it’s been mostly embarrassing. However, he has too much talent, and among the favorites, the most momentum after a solid summer. There’s no Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, or Brad Keselowski to deal with. If he out performs the three drivers we just mentioned, it’s his championship. He normally flames out early in The Chase, so it won’t take long to see if our prediction is correct.