2016 is
about getting back to basics here at No Credentials (first basic…actually
posting stuff more than once a month or two), so we’re bringing back the
fantasy baseball mock draft. Loyal readers of this blog (all two of you) will
recall that we go through a mock draft where I make the pick for every team.
We’re drafting for a fake 12-team, 25-man roster league with the following
roster spots.
C-1B-2B-3B-SS-OF-OF-OF-UT-UT-SP-SP-RP-RP-RP-P-P
For the
sake of keeping my spreadsheet organized, each bench will consist of four
hitters and four pitchers.
My draft
strategy is mostly the same. My 2014
Draft Guidelines still apply (just ignore the specific player discussions),
and the tips
I gave last year don’t suck. With that said, let’s get 2016 Nerdfest
underway!
1-1 = Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Arizona Diamondbacks – Age
= 28
I
can hear the outrage through my Ethernet cables. “WHERE THE HELL IS MIKE
TROUT!?!”. Chill out people, we’ll get to him next.
Goldschmidt
has been a top-5 fantasy producer on a per-game basis each of the last three
years. Furthermore, he’s coming off a season where he set career highs in
batting average, OPS, walks, and steals. At 28 years old, he’s in his prime on
a vastly improved Diamondbacks squad. It’s a no brainer for us to rank him
above Trout, as while both have the ability to post 60 combined homers and
steals Goldschmidt is producing that value at first base instead of the far
deeper outfield pool.
1-2 = Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles Angels – Age = 24
Told
you we’d get to Trout shortly. Trout is really good (that’s expert analysis!),
but the lineup around him is what makes us pump the brakes. Other than an aging
Albert Pujols, there isn’t a lot to like about the talent around Trout. Add in
declining steals totals (they’ve decreased from 49 in 2012 down to 11 last
year), and you have a recipe for slight disappointment if you draft or bid for
him. Perhaps his steals will go up if the Angels need to play more small-ball
to manufacture offense, but that’s a big if. Obviously we’re nitpicking the
pre-emanate talent in MLB, but it’s small stuff that can put your team over the
top.
1-3 = Bryce Harper – OF – Washington Nationals – Age = 23
It
feels like people were waiting for years for Bryce Harper to deliver a MVP
level stat-line, but one needs to remember that he doesn’t turn 24 years old
until October. Harper made massive leaps in virtually every offensive category,
and barring injury, there is no reason to believe that won’t continue. His low
stolen base output is the reason we don’t have him ranked higher, but those of
you willing to punt that category or load up on cheap speed late in the draft
shouldn’t hesitate to draft him first overall.
1-4 = Josh Donaldson – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays – Age = 30
The
2015 AL MVP had an incredible first year north of the border, leading the
league in both runs scored and runs driven in while eclipsing 40 dingers for
the first time. We don’t forecast him matching his home run total from a year
ago, but hitting in the middle of a bananas Blue Jay lineup will keep his runs
and RBI totals and an elite level. He’s not quite in the same tier as the first
three on this list, but Donaldson makes for a great consolation prize if you
end up with the fourth pick.
1-5 = Manny Machado – 3B-SS – Baltimore Orioles – Age =
23
After
a disappointing 2014 campaign, Machado delivered a breakout 2015 that saw him
post more combined homers and steals than any of the four players rated ahead
of him on this list. Even more important to his real-life game was his
willingness to take a walk. 70 walks isn’t an enormous number, but when you’re
previous high was 29 that shows an improved understanding of the strike zone.
Even scarier, he’s only 23 years old. Machado gets a bump in leagues where he
is both third base and shortstop eligible, as his ability to fill two premium positions
in a lineup is huge when constructing your roster. It’s worth at least five
spots on our rankings.
1-6 = Nolan Arenado – 3B – Colorado Rockies – Age = 24
Astute
readers may notice a theme of extreme youth so far in this mock draft, and
Arenado continues the trend (he turns 25 in April). He’s won three consecutive
NL Gold Glove Awards (that’s not super fantasy relevant, but it is important in
keeper leagues to know that Arenado will stick at third for several years), and
last year led the senior circuit in both dingers and RBIs. When you remember
that Carlos Gonzalez was oft-injured and Troy Tulowitzki was traded away last
July, that makes Arenado’s production all the more impressive. We’re higher on
him than most fantasy sites, but third baseman that can pop 40+ dingers don’t
grow on trees anymore.
1-7 = Carlos Correa – SS – Houston Astros – Age = 21
Correa
has only been able to legally drink in the United States since last September,
which is insane when you consider how valuable he was to the Astros a year ago.
His statistical ceiling is as high as any player in MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL, so
while picking him seventh is an overpay in redraft leagues, it’s worth it if he
puts it all together.
1-8 = Clayton Kershaw – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers – Age =
28
You’ll
see Kershaw ranked as high as fourth on pre-season ranking lists, but even
though his 301 strikeouts last year were insane, we can’t justify taking a
pitcher that high when the pool of elite offensive talent is so shallow. We’d
even have a hard time dedicating enough money in an auction to acquire his
services.
1-9 = Kris Bryant – 3B-OF – Chicago Cubs – Age = 24
The
2015 NL Rookie of the Year (when was the last time the two defending rookies of
the year were ranked in the top-10 on a fantasy draft board? I’m guessing the
answer to that question is never) is poised to take another step forward
hitting in the middle of a loaded Cubs lineup for a full season. If he can cut
down on his strikeout totals (he whiffed 199 times last year), Bryant producing
top-5 value in 2016 is not out of the question.
1-10 = Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Miami Marlins – Age = 26
Stanton
is our first “risky” pick of the first round, but if he could somehow suit up
for more than 150 games for the first time in his career, no one (not even
Bryce Harper) has more power potential. He has the potential to be the number
one fantasy asset when 2016 is all said and done, so if you have the chance to
draft him this late in the first round of a real draft you should not hesitate.
1-11 = Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Chicago Cubs – Age = 26
Rizzo
posted 31 dingers and a surprising 17 steals (thanks Joe Maddon), so he’s kind
of a poor man’s Paul Goldschmidt. I assure you that’s a compliment. Hitting
squarely in the middle of a loaded Cubs lineup, he’s a dark horse contender to
lead the NL in RBIs.
1-12 = Jose Altuve – 2B – Houston Astros – Age = 25
Are the 15 home runs Altuve smacked likely to be
matched in 2016? No, but you won’t care if that mean’s his stolen base total
rises above 50 again. Our concern with him is his poor walk rate, but we’d be
willing to make peace with that to snag one of the few elite second base
options.
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